Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs 10 Lebron

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Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs 10 Lebron 

Post#1 » by SideshowBob » Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:06 am

Introduction

I've always wanted to take a deeper look into these two seasons. Comparison is inevitable (coincidentally both are 25 and are just coming off their top box-score production seasons), but I want to just get some discussion going.

We have Jordan's famous "Archangel" stretch in 89 following the March 8th loss to Boston (in which he did not play). And we have Lebron's similar stretch in 2010 following Mo Williams' injury in late January. Both guys basically took on super ball dominant roles (not necessarily just high USG%), and we saw monster assist numbers from both (in Jordan's case, big rebound numbers as well). How was the team performance affected? I've posted extensive data at the end of the post.

----------------------------------

Discussion

Jordan

Jordan sees his scoring rate actually dip a bit below Lebron's, with around the same relative TS%, but a significantly larger jump in AST%. The Bulls saw their offense jump from +1.5 in 57 games to +2.8 in 24 games. We see a slight decline in eFG%, a 1.5% rise in ORB% (Jordan's ORB% remained constant at 5.5% before and after), a 1.7% decline in TOV%, likely a byproduct of Jordan's increased playmaking (15% increase in AST%), and a major upward shift in free throw rate, which can also be explained by Jordan's increased playmaking. We know he was a strong interior passer, and creating high percentage shots at the basket leads to less creation responsibility for the finisher (low TO%) and a stronger probability of drawing the foul. Further, Jordan himself saw his FTA/FGA rate jump up from .431 to .470.

Roster consistency is present amongst starters/key players. Pre-Archangel, of a possible 57 games, we've got Pippen in 49, Grant in 56, and Paxson in 46. Under the Archangel offense, of a possible 24 games, we get 23 from Pippen, 22 from Grant, 23 from Cartwright, and 21 from Paxson. There's clearly weak spacing though outside of Paxson, and the introduction of Craig Hodges obviously makes an impact here. In 20 games Pre-Archangel without Hodges, we see a +0.8 offense, but in 36 games Pre-Archangel WITH him, Chicago's rocking a +2.0 offense, with a slight upward shift in eFG%, but while almost sustaining the same ORB level.

In 13 games under the Jordan Archangel Offense, without Hodges, Chicago is able to sustain a +2.1 offense (33.9% ORB%). With one major floor spacer, and strong emphasis on crashing the offensive glass, ball-dominant Jordan is able to run a pretty decent offense. Throw Hodges into the mix for 11 games, and Chicago's offense jumps to +3.7 (almost elite). There is a huge jump in eFG% (47.0 ->51.5), and the tepid offensive rebounding pace dulls down (28.8%). Give Jordan some decent (at best) spacing, and allow him to dominate the ball and he's basically going to give you elite offense with any sort of cast. Imagine if he could have been working with the kind of spacing the Triangle afforded in his years with Jackson? Or the kind of 3 point shooting James has today?

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James

With James, we see similar shifts in production. Drop in scoring rate and efficiency (he was actually matching Jordan's pre-Archangel scoring rate before this shift, on 35% 3P shooting to boot), complemented by a jump in AST% and a drop in TOV%.

Cleveland's offense sees a MAJOR jump, shifting from +3.8 (elite) in the first 44 games with Lebron to a staggering +7.0 in the last 32 games with him. However, we also see a clear dropoff in defense, (-3.1 -> -1.6), though that can be somewhat attributed to the introduction of Jamison, and the inconsistent perimeter roster outside of Parker. Which brings to light the inconsistent roster overall; in these 32 games, this is the kind of minute breakdown we're looking at:

Spoiler:
Lebron, 32 G, 1263 MP
Parker, 32 G, 899 MP
Varejao, 28 G, 751 MP
Hickson, 31 G, 710 MP
Williams, 22 G, 694 MP
Jamison, 20 G, 673 MP
West, 20 G, 538 MP
Gibson, 17 G, 430 MP
Shaq, 15 G, 377 MP
Moon, 24 G, 339 MP
Ilgauskas, 17 G, 335 MP


Getting back to the offense, what drives the shift is a clear jump in eFG% and a clear drop in TOV%. TOV% is largely going to be a result of increasing Lebron's ball dominance, which cuts the possession time of weaker ball-handlers/controllers, and allows others to be put into easier positions to score, while having to do less of the creation themselves (creation of high percentage shots at and closer to the basket, the same effect we saw with Jordan).

The eFG% jump would suggest that we may have also seen improved 3P shooting, but again, remember the inconsistent roster. 3PA goes from representing roughly 20% of all possessions to 23%, (18 3PA/G ->21 3PA/G), however, eFG% on 3s declines from 61.1% in the pre-PG stretch, to 53.7% in the PG stretch, despite overall eFG% rising from 53.1% to 54.3%. What that suggests is that Lebron's volume creation on 3s AND inside shots rose, but the Cavaliers were not capitalizing as well as they could have, due to circumstances that weren't necessarily in control. That makes the improvement/emphasis on inside scoring even more impressive and dramatic, and I'll have to dig a bit deeper to look for shifts in that regard. What I can point out, is that James' free throw rate jumped from an impressive .478 to a staggering .547, and yet on the team level there is virtually no shift in free throw rate. To me, that (and the drop in TOV%) may be an indication of lots of open shots created at the basket, with such little defensive pressure that free throw rate was actually declining.

Varejao/Hickson come to mind here, they were both highly effective finishers on the PnR with James. In this stretch, we see Varejao shoot 65.7% from the floor (9.1 pts/g, 67.0% TS, up from 8.4 pts/g, 55.6% TS ), and we see Hickson shoot 56.6% from the floor (10.7 pts/g, 59.0% TS, up from 6.6 pts/g, 56.9% TS).

I also want to discuss the introduction of Jamison here, who may or may not have been all that helpful in the offense, despite being a stretch 4. In 11 Lebron PG games without him the offense was at +8.7, (Shaq played all 11 G), but in 21 Lebron PG games with him, the offense dropped to +6 (with Shaq playing in only 4 G). The presence of Shaq as a post/finishing threat may have been more helpful than the spacing effect that Jamison yielded, and the defensive woes of playing them together are also clear.

So what we're considering, is that give James an effective PnR finisher, and provide any sort of spacing and you're likely to get a strong offense. Have two of them, and provide a bunch of inconsistent above average outside shooters, and a half present low-post presence and you can probably yield an elite offense. Add in a second creator and consistent elite outside shooting (2013 Miami), and what could you get?

----------------------------------

I plan on adding more thoughts/data here, and I'm considering throwing 2009 Dwyane Wade into the mix. He's got a slightly shorter stretch, but one that probably makes both of these pale in comparison.

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Data
Spoiler:
*Note that the discrepancy between these figures and BBR's seasonal figures are due to the possession formula. BBR's gamelogs and my data use Oliver's possession formula. BBR's seasonal figures use slightly different data. For the sake of consistency, I've used Oliver's possession formula for the seasonal data and the splits.

**Off/Def refer to differential from opponents ORTG/DRTG. As I'm using gamelogs, I can look at seasonal/split differential, rather than have to compare to league average.

***Jordan missed 1 game. Lebron missed 6 games.

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1989 Chicago Bulls

Spoiler:
Full Season

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
96.7     109.5    108.0    1.44    2.13    0.69   +1.7    -0.3    +2.0


Pre-Archangel 57 Games

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
96.5     109.4    107.4    1.91    0.13    1.89   +1.5    -0.6    +2.0


Jordan Archangel March 11th - April 23rd, 1989, 24 Games

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
97.2     110.2    109.4    0.75    2.99    1.99   +2.8     0.3    +2.5


Four Factors

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Full Season

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       50.7%      30.7%       14.2%      .238
Defense       48.7%      69.5%       13.2%      .239


Pre-Archangel 57 Games

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       51.4%      30.2%       14.6%      .236
Defense       48.4%      69.8%       13.3%      .242


Jordan Archangel March 11th - April 23rd, 1989, 24 Games

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       49.1%      31.6%       12.9%      .250
Defense       49.2%      68.6%       13.0%      .229


Michael Jordan
Spoiler:
Average and Per 75 possessions

Full Season

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MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

40.2  32.5  8.0   8.0   34.7%   3.6   11.9%   61.4% +7.7%   32.1%  123
N/A   30.1  7.5   7.4   N/A     3.3   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


Pre-Archangel 57 Games

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MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

40.4  33.4  7.6   6.9   30.1%   3.5   11.0%   62.3% +8.6%   32.6%  122
N/A   30.8  7.0   6.8   N/A     3.2   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


Jordan Archangel March 11th - April 23rd, 1989, 24 Games

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MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

39.8  30.4  9.2  10.7   44.9%   3.8   12.8%   59.3% +5.6%   31.3%  122
N/A   28.3  8.6  10.0   N/A     3.5   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


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2010 Cleveland Cavaliers

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Full Season

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
90.6     112.1    105.0    6.52   -0.35    6.17   +4.6    -2.2    +6.8


Pre-PG Stretch 44 Games

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
90.2     111.4    104.3    6.43   -0.20    6.64   +3.8    -3.1    +6.9


Lebron PG Stretch January 23rd - April 6th, 2010, 32 Games

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
90.7     114.8    105.1    8.84   -1.04    7.24   +7.0    -1.6    +8.6


Four Factors

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Full Season

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       53.2%      25.1%       12.7%      .246
Defense       48.2%      77.2%       11.7%      .218


Pre-PG Stretch 44 Games

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       53.1%      25.3%       13.5%      .247
Defense       47.5%      77.7%       12.0%      .241


Lebron PG Stretch January 23rd - April 6th, 2010, 32 Games

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       54.3%      25.3%       11.7%      .248
Defense       48.2%      76.5%       11.1%      .193


Lebron James
Spoiler:
Average and Per 75 possessions

Full Season

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

39.0  29.7  7.3   8.6   41.8%   3.4   12.3%   60.4% +6.1%   33.5%  121
N/A   30.3  7.4   8.7   N/A     3.5   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


Pre-PG Stretch 44 Games

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MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

38.7  29.7  7.1   7.8   40.4%   3.6   12.9%   61.1% +6.8%   34.2%  121
N/A   30.6  7.3   8.0   N/A     3.7   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


Lebron PG Stretch January 23rd - April 6th, 2010, 32 Games

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

39.5  29.7  7.5   9.6   43.8%   3.2   11.4%   59.6% +5.4%   33.4%  122
N/A   29.9  7.5   9.7   N/A     3.2   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


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2009 Miami Heat

Spoiler:
Full Season

Code: Select all

Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
89.3     108.5    108.3    0.26    0.24    0.49   +0.5     0.0    +0.6


Non-Ball Dominant Stretch 66 Games

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
89.2     107.3    107.0    0.29   -0.14   -0.25   -1.0    -1.0    +0.1


Ball Dominant Stretch February 18th - March 14th, 2009, 13 Games

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
91.4     114.6    114.4    0.15    2.07    3.38   +7.5    +5.0    +2.5


Four Factors

Spoiler:
Full Season

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       50.0%      24.6%       11.6%      .212
Defense       50.1%      72.9%       14.0%      .251


Non-Ball Dominant Stretch 66 Games

Code: Select all

              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       49.6%      24.5%       11.7%      .212
Defense       49.5%      72.9%       14.2%      .249


Ball Dominant Stretch February 18th - March 14th, 2009, 13 Games

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       52.0%      24.5%       11.0%      .234
Defense       53.8%      72.2%       14.4%      .267


Dwyane Wade
Spoiler:
Average and Per 75 possessions

Full Season

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

38.6  30.2  5.0   7.5   40.3%   3.4   11.6%   57.4% +3.0%   36.2%  115
N/A   31.6  5.3   7.8   N/A     3.6   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


Non-Ball Dominant Stretch 66 Games

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

38.0  28.8  4.9   6.9   37.8%   3.3   11.4%   55.6% +1.2%   36.5%  111.6
N/A   30.6  7.3   8.0   N/A     3.7   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


Ball Dominant Stretch February 18th - March 14th, 2009, 13 Games

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

41.4  37.2  5.9  10.4   50.3%   3.9   12.2%   65.7% +11.3%  36.0%  131
N/A   35.3  5.6   9.9   N/A     3.7   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs. 10 Lebron 

Post#2 » by Rasho_libre » Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:26 am

Jesus Christ man, sick analysis. Keep up the good work
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs. 10 Lebron 

Post#3 » by Gregoire » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:21 am

SideshowBob wrote:Introduction

I've always wanted to take a deeper look into these two seasons. Comparison is inevitable (coincidentally both are 25 and are just coming off their top box-score production seasons), but I want to just get some discussion going.

We have Jordan's famous "Archangel" stretch in 89 following the March 8th loss to Boston (in which he did not play). And we have Lebron's similar stretch in 2010 following Mo Williams' injury in late January. Both guys basically took on super ball dominant roles (not necessarily just high USG%), and we saw monster assist numbers from both (in Jordan's case, big rebound numbers as well). How was the team performance affected? I've posted extensive data at the end of the post.

----------------------------------

Discussion

Jordan

Jordan sees his scoring rate actually dip a bit below Lebron's, with around the same relative TS%, but a significantly larger jump in AST%. The Bulls saw their offense jump from +1.5 in 57 games to +2.8 in 24 games. We see a slight decline in eFG%, a 1.5% rise in ORB% (Jordan's ORB% remained constant at 5.5% before and after), a 1.7% decline in TOV%, likely a byproduct of Jordan's increased playmaking (15% increase in AST%), and a major upward shift in free throw rate, which can also be explained by Jordan's increased playmaking. We know he was a strong interior passer, and creating high percentage shots at the basket leads to less creation responsibility for the finisher (low TO%) and a stronger probability of drawing the foul. Further, Jordan himself saw his FTA/FGA rate jump up from .431 to .470.

Roster consistency is present amongst starters/key players. Pre-Archangel, of a possible 57 games, we've got Pippen in 49, Grant in 56, and Paxson in 46. Under the Archangel offense, of a possible 24 games, we get 23 from Pippen, 22 from Grant, 23 from Cartwright, and 21 from Paxson. There's clearly weak spacing though outside of Paxson, and the introduction of Craig Hodges obviously makes an impact here. In 20 games Pre-Archangel without Hodges, we see a +0.8 offense, but in 36 games Pre-Archangel WITH him, Chicago's rocking a +2.0 offense, with a slight upward shift in eFG%, but while almost sustaining the same ORB level.

In 13 games under the Jordan Archangel Offense, without Hodges, Chicago is able to sustain a +2.1 offense (33.9% ORB%). With one major floor spacer, and strong emphasis on crashing the offensive glass, ball-dominant Jordan is able to run a pretty decent offense. Throw Hodges into the mix for 11 games, and Chicago's offense jumps to +3.7 (almost elite). There is a huge jump in eFG% (47.0 ->51.5), and the tepid offensive rebounding pace dulls down (28.8%). Give Jordan some decent (at best) spacing, and allow him to dominate the ball and he's basically going to give you elite offense with any sort of cast. Imagine if he could have been working with the kind of spacing the Triangle afforded in his years with Jackson? Or the kind of 3 point shooting James has today?

----------------------------------

James

With James, we see similar shifts in production. Drop in scoring rate and efficiency (he was actually matching Jordan's pre-Archangel scoring rate before this shift, on 35% 3P shooting to boot), complemented by a jump in AST% and a drop in TOV%.

Cleveland's offense sees a MAJOR jump, shifting from +3.8 (elite) in the first 44 games with Lebron to a staggering +7.0 in the last 32 games with him. However, we also see a clear dropoff in defense, (-3.1 -> -1.6), though that can be somewhat attributed to the introduction of Jamison, and the inconsistent perimeter roster outside of Parker. Which brinks to light the inconsistent roster overall; in these 32 games, this is the kind of minute breakdown we're looking at:

Spoiler:
Lebron, 32 G, 1263 MP
Parker, 32 G, 899 MP
Varejao, 28 G, 751 MP
Hickson, 31 G, 710 MP
Williams, 22 G, 694 MP
Jamison, 20 G, 673 MP
West, 20 G, 538 MP
Gibson, 17 G, 430 MP
Shaq, 15 G, 377 MP
Moon, 24 G, 339 MP
Ilgauskas, 17 G, 335 MP


Getting back to the offense, what drives the shift is a clear jump in eFG% and a clear drop in TOV%. TOV% is largely going to be a result of increasing Lebron's ball dominance, which cuts the possession time of weaker ball-handlers/controllers, and allows others to be put into easier positions to score, while having to do less of the creation themselves (creation of high percentage shots at and closer to the basket, the same effect we saw with Jordan).

The eFG% jump would suggest that we may have also seen improved 3P shooting, but again, remember the inconsistent roster. 3PA goes from representing roughly 20% of all possessions to 23%, (18 3PA/G ->21 3PA/G), however, eFG% on 3s declines from 61.1% in the pre-PG stretch, to 53.7% in the PG stretch, despite overall eFG% rising from 53.1% to 54.3%. What that suggests is that Lebron's volume creation on 3s AND inside shots rose, but the Cavaliers were not capitalizing as well as they could have, due to circumstances that weren't necessarily in control. That makes the improvement/emphasis on inside scoring even more impressive and dramatic, and I'll have to dig a bit deeper to look for shifts in that regard. What I can point out, is that James' free throw rate jumped from an impressive .478 to a staggering .547, and yet on the team level there is virtually no shift in free throw rate. To me, that (and the drop in TOV%) may be an indication of lots of open shots created at the basket, with such little defensive pressure that free throw rate was actually declining.

Varejao/Hickson come to mind here, they were both highly effective finishers on the PnR with James. In this stretch, we see Varejao shoot 65.7% from the floor (9.1 pts/g, 67.0% TS, up from 8.4 pts/g, 55.6% TS ), and we see Hickson shoot 56.6% from the floor (10.7 pts/g, 59.0% TS, up from 6.6 pts/g, 56.9% TS).

I also want to discuss the introduction of Jamison here, who may or may not have been all that helpful in the offense, despite being a stretch 4. In 11 Lebron PG games without him the offense was at +8.7, (Shaq played all 11 G), but in 21 Lebron PG games with him, the offense dropped to +6 (with Shaq playing in only 4 G). The presence of Shaq as a post/finishing threat may have been more helpful than the spacing effect that Jamison yielded, and the defensive woes of playing them together are also clear.

So what we're considering, is that give James an effective PnR finisher, and provide any sort of spacing and you're likely to get a strong offense. Have two of them, and provide a bunch of inconsistent above average outside shooters, and a half present low-post presence and you can probably yield an elite offense. Add in a second creator and consistent elite outside shooting (2013 Miami), and what could you get?

----------------------------------

I plan on adding more thoughts/data here, and I'm considering throwing 2009 Dwyane Wade into the mix. He's got a slightly shorter stretch, but one that probably makes both of these pale in comparison.

----------------------------------

Data
Spoiler:
*Note that the discrepancy between these figures and BBR's seasonal figures are due to the possession formula. BBR's gamelogs and my data use Oliver's possession formula. BBR's seasonal figures use slightly different data. For the sake of consistency, I've used Oliver's possession formula for the seasonal data and the splits.

**Off/Def refer to differential from opponents ORTG/DRTG. As I'm using gamelogs, I can look at seasonal/split differential, rather than have to compare to league average.

***Jordan missed 1 game. Lebron missed 6 games.

----------------------------------

1989 Chicago Bulls

Spoiler:
Full Season

Code: Select all

Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
96.7     109.5    108.0    1.44    2.13    0.69   +1.7    -0.3    +2.0


Pre-Archangel 57 Games

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
96.5     109.4    107.4    1.91    0.13    1.89   +1.5    -0.6    +2.0


Jordan Archangel March 11th - April 23rd, 1989, 24 Games

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
97.2     110.2    109.4    0.75    2.99    1.99   +2.8     0.3    +2.5


Four Factors

Spoiler:
Full Season

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       50.7%      30.7%       14.2%      .238
Defense       48.7%      69.5%       13.2%      .239


Pre-Archangel 57 Games

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       51.4%      30.2%       14.6%      .236
Defense       48.4%      69.8%       13.3%      .242


Jordan Archangel March 11th - April 23rd, 1989, 24 Games

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       49.1%      31.6%       12.9%      .250
Defense       49.2%      68.6%       13.0%      .229


Michael Jordan
Spoiler:
Average and Per 75 possessions

Full Season

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MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

40.2  32.5  8.0   8.0   34.7%   3.6   11.9%   61.4% +7.7%   32.1%  123
N/A   30.1  7.5   7.4   N/A     3.3   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


Pre-Archangel 57 Games

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MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

40.4  33.4  7.6   6.9   30.1%   3.5   11.0%   62.3% +8.6%   32.6%  122
N/A   30.8  7.0   6.8   N/A     3.2   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


Jordan Archangel March 11th - April 23rd, 1989, 24 Games

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MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

39.8  30.4  9.2  10.7   44.9%   3.8   12.8%   59.3% +5.6%   31.3%  122
N/A   28.3  8.6  10.0   N/A     3.5   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


----------------------------------

2010 Cleveland Cavaliers

Spoiler:
Full Season

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
90.6     112.1    105.0    6.52   -0.35    6.17   +4.6    -2.2    +6.8


Pre-PG Stretch 44 Games

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
90.2     111.4    104.3    6.43   -0.20    6.64   +3.8    -3.1    +6.9


Lebron PG Stretch January 23rd - April 6th, 2010, 32 Games

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
90.7     114.8    105.1    8.84   -1.04    7.24   +7.0    -1.6    +8.6


Four Factors

Spoiler:
Full Season

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       53.2%      25.1%       12.7%      .246
Defense       48.2%      77.2%       11.7%      .218


Pre-PG Stretch 44 Games

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       53.1%      25.3%       13.5%      .247
Defense       47.5%      77.7%       12.0%      .241


Lebron PG Stretch January 23rd - April 6th, 2010, 32 Games

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       54.3%      25.3%       11.7%      .248
Defense       48.2%      76.5%       11.1%      .193


Lebron James
Spoiler:
Average and Per 75 possessions

Full Season

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

39.0  29.7  7.3   8.6   41.8%   3.4   12.3%   60.4% +6.1%   33.5%  121
N/A   30.3  7.4   8.7   N/A     3.5   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


Pre-PG Stretch 44 Games

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

38.7  29.7  7.1   7.8   40.4%   3.6   12.9%   61.1% +6.8%   34.2%  121
N/A   30.6  7.3   8.0   N/A     3.7   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A


Lebron PG Stretch January 23rd - April 6th, 2010, 32 Games

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

39.5  29.7  7.5   9.6   43.8%   3.2   11.4%   59.6% +5.4%   33.4%  122
N/A   29.9  7.5   9.7   N/A     3.2   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

Great post, but you have Lebrons 10 year with 9.0 SRS and Jordans 89 in 8.0, so you think Lebrons impact was clearly better?
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs. 10 Lebron 

Post#4 » by GSP » Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:47 am

Amazing work SB, gonna save this if u dont mind. I have 10 as Lbjs offensive peak a bit higher than 09 and 13 (both +6 and 10 @ +6.5). I have 89 Mj and 10 Lbj equal as players both +8.5 but Mj being a different beast from 90-92 reaching that difficult +7off level.
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs. 10 Lebron 

Post#5 » by ShaqAttack3234 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:06 pm

Great read. Your work is much appreciated. It is an interesting comparison. I'd say Lebron was a little farther along in his career being in his 7th season, despite MJ being nearly a year older, but Jordan's skills were really coming together at the time as well. As for MJ vs Lebron, but I've always thought MJ was the more skilled player, and a better scorer, but that Lebron is more suited to this type of ball-dominant role. The 11-0 record without Mo Williams still impresses the hell out of me.
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs. 10 Lebron 

Post#6 » by colts18 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:02 pm

I'd take 2010 LeBron. He carried a mediocre squad to 60+ wins.
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs. 10 Lebron 

Post#7 » by SideshowBob » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:10 pm

Gregoire wrote:Great post, but you have Lebrons 10 year with 9.0 SRS and Jordans 89 in 8.0, so you think Lebrons impact was clearly better?


I have them as equals offensively, but James slightly ahead on defense.

GSP wrote:Amazing work SB, gonna save this if u dont mind. I have 10 as Lbjs offensive peak a bit higher than 09 and 13 (both +6 and 10 @ +6.5). I have 89 Mj and 10 Lbj equal as players both +8.5 but Mj being a different beast from 90-92 reaching that difficult +7off level.


Not at all :)
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs. 10 Lebron 

Post#8 » by Lost92Bricks » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:27 pm

89 Jordan is the most ridiculous season ever IMO.

- 33/8/8/3 - 61 TS% in the regular season.

- 35/8/7 - 60 TS% in the playoffs. Led a horrible team past a 53 and 57 win team to the ECF without homecourt advantage.
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs. 10 Lebron 

Post#9 » by whitehops » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:31 pm

colts18 wrote:I'd take 2010 LeBron. He carried a mediocre squad to 60+ wins.


an analysis like SideshowBob's deserves a much, much better response.
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs. 10 Lebron 

Post#10 » by SideshowBob » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:31 pm

Working on Wade here as well.
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs. 10 Lebron 

Post#11 » by trainwreckog » Wed Oct 23, 2013 6:12 pm

.
amazing analysis sideshowbob... i generally don't read statistical analysis about basketball... but the title of the thread got me in this case... and i'm glad i did and glad i was able to learn from your post.

i got many insights from the thread, and one of them stood out to me.

other than 3-pt shooting (which was not emphasized in previous era's day like it is today), the one area of jordan's offensive game where i thought lebron at least compared and probably had the edge, was their off-the-dribble games.

it is common knowledge that jordan was goat on the post and off-ball... but the analysis shows that jordan was equally effective to lebron in a ball-dominant role, despite being on a team that attempted 530 floor-spreading threes on the season, compared to 1670 for lebron's 2009 cleveland team... and dealing with physical defenses.

so jordan was equivalent (even superior) to lebron in a ball-dominant role despite being in an environment less conducive to ball-domination and penetration... couple this with jordan's goat off-ball and post repertoires, and the extent of jordan's versatility and why he could always adjust to go 6 for 6 becomes evident.

it would be interesting to have lebron go back and play his off-the-dribble game with a team that attempts only 530 threes... or better yet, if there could be a archangel period for post and off-ball players, where lebron played strictly from the post and off-ball.... then let's compare.
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs. 10 Lebron 

Post#12 » by JordansBulls » Wed Oct 23, 2013 6:48 pm

The difference between the two is mainly the playoff performance of each. MJ averaged 35/7/8/3 on 51% that playoffs while averaging 40/6/8/3 oon 52% FG against the #1 SRS rated team in the league in Cleveland, and 36/9/8/3 on 55% FG on the Knicks in round 2.
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs. 10 Lebron 

Post#13 » by SideshowBob » Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:08 pm

Added data for Wade. Talk about burning nuclear :o
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs 10 Lebron vs 09 

Post#14 » by trainwreckog » Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:28 pm

im not sure it is accurate to say lebron or wade ever had a "non-ball-dominant" stretch... they are both flag-bearers for the modern style of play... for their entire careers - high school through the pros - their games have been ball-dominant as a standard.

that's why there have been a lot of (silly) threads about whether the stuff mj did GOAT - like post, mid-range and off-ball - would work in today's game... so based on those threads, apparently, the only question with jordan was whether he had an equivalent ball-dominant ability to today's players, and apparently... thank you sideshowbob... he does.
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs 10 Lebron vs 09 

Post#15 » by ShaqAttack3234 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:05 pm

trainwreckog wrote:im not sure it is accurate to say lebron or wade ever had a "non-ball-dominant" stretch... they are both flag-bearers for the modern style of play... for their entire careers - high school through the pros - their games have been ball-dominant as a standard.


I pretty much agree, but I think using Lebron's stretch without Mo Williams is fine because like MJ switching to point guard, it's not an arbitrary stretch.
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs 10 Lebron vs 09  

Post#16 » by Dipper 13 » Thu Oct 24, 2013 4:03 am

Give Jordan some decent (at best) spacing, and allow him to dominate the ball and he's basically going to give you elite offense with any sort of cast.


Indeed he will. This is an excellent post to the forum, at least with the idea of providing some clear context to the comparison of these players in similar roles.
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs 10 Lebron vs 09 

Post#17 » by Lost92Bricks » Thu Oct 24, 2013 5:56 am

Is 2010 the best version of Bron as a scorer?
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs 10 Lebron vs 09 

Post#18 » by trainwreckog » Thu Oct 24, 2013 6:50 am

Dipper 13 wrote:
Give Jordan some decent (at best) spacing, and allow him to dominate the ball and he's basically going to give you elite offense with any sort of cast.



Indeed he will. This is an excellent post to the forum, at least with the idea of providing some clear context to the comparison of these players in similar roles.



even with hodges, jordan's spacing did not even begin to compare to lebron's... 530 attempted threes for jordan's 89' bulls compared to 1670 for lebron's 2009 cavs... lebron enjoys spacing that is not remotely comparable to what mj had to deal with.

this thread explains why mj was able to always adjust and go 6 for 6... he was already goat at post, mid-range and off-ball play.... now we see that he is at least lebron's equal off-the-dribble... basically the definition of the goat scoring repertoire that can adjust to any teammates or defense.
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs 10 Lebron vs 09 

Post#19 » by trainwreckog » Fri Oct 25, 2013 5:52 pm

trainwreckog wrote:
Dipper 13 wrote:
Give Jordan some decent (at best) spacing, and allow him to dominate the ball and he's basically going to give you elite offense with any sort of cast.



Indeed he will. This is an excellent post to the forum, at least with the idea of providing some clear context to the comparison of these players in similar roles.



even with hodges, jordan's spacing did not even begin to compare to lebron's... 530 attempted threes for jordan's 89' bulls compared to 1670 for lebron's 2009 cavs... lebron enjoys spacing that is not remotely comparable to what mj had to deal with.

this thread explains why mj was able to always adjust and go 6 for 6... he was already goat at post, mid-range and off-ball play.... now we see that he is at least lebron's equal off-the-dribble... basically the definition of the goat scoring repertoire that can adjust to any teammates or defense.


itt we learn that if you tell jordan to go out there and dominate a game as the primary ball-handler... he can do it... if you tell jordan to go drop 40+ or get a triple-double as the primary ballhandler - jordan can do it.... so can lebron..

but the difference is if you tell jordan to go and drop 40+ and dominate playing exclusively OFF-ball and let someone ELSE be the primary ballhandler.... he can ALSO do it... whereas lebron can't (poor wade).
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Re: Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs 10 Lebron vs 09  

Post#20 » by SideshowBob » Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:17 am

Unfortunately, we don't have this kind of data for Jordan, but here's how Cleveland looked with Lebron On the Court in that stretch of 32 games.

Offense - http://bkref.com/tiny/Aahy7
Defense - http://bkref.com/tiny/f98MF

117.0 ORTG, 104.4 DRTG, +12.6 Net

That's in a 107.8 Defensive environment, so that's a +9.2 offense.
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