Re-imagining the Jays Line Up

[CoachD]

Let me preface by saying, that despite yesterday's base running blunder, I've become a huge fan of Gose, and all of the intangibles he brings.

He currently has an OBP near .400 and is always a threat to score from first. Should he be higher in the lineup? You have to think he's a lead off man of the future.

Also, as EE continues to rake, teams are going to start pitching around him, especially without much protection.

Do you put Bautista behind AA? People have said for ages that despite his power, Jose would be better as 2 hitter with his .442 OBP.

Lind also has a very high OBP at .432 while Reyes is middle of the pack among starters.

Move Reyes down into the 5 hole to reset the table after the cleanup hitter?

Stack your power?

Keep throwing Francsico and Lind out there, and ensuring you always have both + Lawrie in your lineup. knowing you can make defensive changes late?

Thoughts?

[Santoki]

Our offense is fantastic the way it is. Why would you start making such huge changes?

[CoachD]

It's all about sustainability and making the most of what we have.

In baseball, more so than in any other sport, the stats tell the story ........... the stats on Reyes - depsite his rep suggest he's not the best lead off man for the club. Stats for Gose suggest he should have an AB or more per game.

Plus, my biggest concern - as I originally mentioned, not enough protection for Encarnacion. If pitchers get past Bautista, and can then pitch around EE, that's a huge blow to our power game.

I also think most would agree Lind is FAR from a typical clean up man and Lawrie is probably hitting too high.

[BigLeagueChew]

Gose putting up a higher OBP than Reyes isn't sustainable. Especially considering the sample size for Gose and long track record for Reyes.

[rarefind]

OP needs to understand the small sample size he is looking at. The lineup is working, no reason to consider changing anything right now. Gose hitting 9 really plays out well when he leads off an inning, I think people get to hung up on batting order. I much rather have that extra 1 ab per game for Reyes, that simple. Don't think it is exactly logical to look at numbers to this point and assume this will be a trend for the remainder of the season.

[CoachD]

You may be right .... but Gose has about the same walk ratio as Reyes, and also has fewer K / AB. Yes, small sample size ... but his ability to laydown a strong bunt single is huge. Almost Kenny Lofton like.

In nothing else, I think Gose should be tried as a table setter following the cleanup spot

[CoachD]

OP needs to understand the small sample size he is looking at. The lineup is working, no reason to consider changing anything right now. Gose hitting 9 really plays out well when he leads off an inning, I think people get to hung up on batting order. I much rather have that extra 1 ab per game for Reyes, that simple. Don't think it is exactly logical to look at numbers to this point and assume this will be a trend for the remainder of the season.

OP does understand that, thank you.

Again - my biggest concern is finding more protection for EE.

[tecumseh18]

There's a lot of "politics" that go into setting the batting order. To risk disrupting chemistry when the team is doing well makes no sense. And who's to say that Gose will be in the line-up when Rasmus (who can "protect" EE, if such a thing even exists) returns.

But on the other side of the ball, am I crazy for thinking that this winter's project should be to convert Lawrie to SS and move Reyes to 2B?

[CoachD]

There's a lot of "politics" that go into setting the batting order. To risk disrupting chemistry when the team is doing well makes no sense. And who's to say that Gose will be in the line-up when Rasmus (who can "protect" EE, if such a thing even exists) returns.

But on the other side of the ball, am I crazy for thinking that this winter's project should be to convert Lawrie to SS and move Reyes to 2B?

I agree that there are a ton of politics in forming a line up. That's where my agreements end with your post.

Lawrie is one of (if not the best) defensive 3B in the AL. His pure athleticism allows him to move to 2B so that Francisco's bat is in the line up. Where is the logic in swapping he and Reyes?

Reyes has been a SS his whole life, and the footwork and ranging is completely different. Could he do it? Probably. But why?

I know they say you don't lose your job to injury - BUT ... as Wilner often says, Gose is the best defensive CF in baseball. If he's able to continue hitting .260 - .280 then it's time to part ways with Rasmus.

[tecumseh18]

Lawrie is one of (if not the best) defensive 3B in the AL. His pure athleticism allows him to move to 2B so that Francisco's bat is in the line up. Where is the logic in swapping he and Reyes?

Why don't you want to employ the same unsentimental approach to setting up the defence as you do for the batting order? The logic is that Lawrie is the Jays' best infielder. He's one of the best infielders in baseball. Obviously, you want that guy in to play the highest leverage position.

I was hoping Lawrie was going to be the reincarnation of Mike Schmidt when he came up, and said as much on this board at the time. So far, I'm wrong - at least in his hitting. The fact is that any team needs more offence, especially power, from its 3rd baseman than Lawrie is currently providing. But as a truly great defensive player, he's being wasted in the hot corner, and less so at 2B.

Meanwhile, it doesn't seem to bother you that Reyes has long been considered one the best lead-off hitters of his generation. Yes, he's always been a shortstop, but anyone can see how limited his range is now. I'm not the first to suggest he move over to second. The question is, who can replace him at short? Hence my suggestion.

[CoachD]

Lawrie at 3B makes up for Reyes limited range to his right, and has a cannon for an arm - but so does Francisco. He lacks the range, but has a great throw to first.

As a 2B, Lawrie has had Alomar like moments .. don't get me wrong, NOT comparing him to the HOFer, but he has moments that remind you of him.

While defence is huge - in the AL East, you need as many sticks as possible.

[satyr9]

Reyes is better than Gose and it's laughable to suggest otherwise. Gose's tiny, yet wonderful, sample size is the only way you can think this.

Gose has been an everyday player since the 15th of May.

In that time he's gone:
51PA with 11H, 2-2B, 4R, 2RBI, 1SB, 1CS, 8BB, and 11K

Reyes in the exact same period is:
79PA with 21H, 5-2B, 1-3B, 10R, 7RBI, 6SB, 1CS, 8BB, 9K

Reyes was not Reyes when he came back from injury, but if anyone has watched the last month you saw when he woke up and he's exactly what you want from a lead-off man.

Gose has been a very pleasant surprise, but he's barely proving he should be in the same league as Reyes let alone steal his slot in the lineup. If Gose gets 400PA this year and a full season next year and keeps up a .350 OBP (which IMO is wildly optimistic), he might prove capable of being a lead-off guy, but for the near future he is a 9th man, hopefully a nice 9th man, but if you're planning on using him for more, you've just created a larger question mark than anything the Jays currently have in their roster, including the rotation.

[CoachD]

Again, my point on Gose was more about looking to him as a leadoff man in THE FUTURE ... and potentially slotting him in at 7 as opposed to 9.

I was merely thowing out talking points - not stating that those were my opinions.

[MikeM]

Reyes will probably be at .280/.350 by the end of the season which is fine for a leadoff man. Gose will be well below that. If he's not then he'll be playing CF for us next year.

[Lateral Quicks]

Gose is putting up these numbers because he's being used in a strict platoon with Pillar. If he was a regular he'd likely be putting up an OPS of .650-.700, which you can live with out of the 9th hole but certainly isn't leadoff man quality. Going forward you certainly hope he develops further but over the last couple years he seems to have plateaued.

Reyes isn't far removed from being a batting champion and has a clear track record of getting on base. He also has good speed and better base stealing ability than Gose at this point. He's by far our best option for leadoff right now.

As for the concern around protection for EE, I don't share it. This lineup is an absolute meat-grinder, particularly against righties (JB, EE, Lind, and Francisco all have OPS's above .950, and our top two guys in Reyes and Cabrera aren't exactly chopped liver).

[kavan]

We may do a shake up after Colby comes back. I like Gose getting another attempt but that is offset by being taken out to let Kevin Pillar get a few more starts.

I like the top of the line up but I dont think anyone can pitch around EE because if they are right now it isnt working haha. So keep it up! But I def think EE makes Jose life easier which we can keep going Lind/Lawire before Colby were doing good job making teams pay for pitching around EE.

My heart aches when Navaro and Jose F get on base together haha then you have a guy like Gose hitting 9th loll his bunt single can easily turn into a double play at 3rd and 2nd if its not a great one. Oh god haha

I think we might end up seeing this once Colby is back

Reyes
Melky
Jose
EE
Lind/Colby/Francisco
Navaro/Krats
Gose

[satyr9]

Reyes
Melky
Jose
EE
Lind/Colby/Francisco
Navaro/Krats
Gose

Not likely as you're missing a 2B in that lineup. If Rasmus comes back while everyone else is healthy and unslumped it'll be

Reyes
Cabrera
Bautista
Lind
EE
Francisco
Lawrie
Rasmus
Navarro

Not sure what they'll do with Gose at that point. I'd love to keep him as a 4th. His speed and defense are obviously better than Pillar's, but first, Gose's a lefty, so that's a negative, and second, I think they want to keep him playing every day, which they can't do when Melky/Jose/Colby are all healthy. I think if things remain steady when Colby's back, Gose'll have to be the one to go back to Buffalo simply 'cause Pillar plays as a RH bat off the bench. It's not a huge deal and they could see it differently, but that's my guess. Of course no decision will be made until it has to be made 'cause any type of injury could make that tough choice for you in a split second.

edit: I realized there's way more strangeness with Kavan's lineup. Is it only 7 strong or are all three lefties hitting in a row? If the three lefties, you're still down a 2B with 4 OFers. If it's 7 deep, we better not hit our catchers 6th when everyone's healthy. That'd be insane.

[MikeM]

Imagine if Rasmus gets on a home run binge. This will be like watching steroid era baseball. Dingers!

[CoachD]

Why are people so quick to leave Lind as the cleanup hitter? His numbers don't justify it at all - especially when your team has TWO of the best power hitters in the AL

[CanadaB-Ball]

Why are people so quick to leave Lind as the cleanup hitter? His numbers don't justify it at all - especially when your team has TWO of the best power hitters in the AL

His current numbers? They absolutely justify it. He's got a 178 wRC+ at the moment.

He also has a .416 BABIP, however, so a fairly significant regression can be expected.