Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defenses

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Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defenses 

Post#1 » by ElGee » Sun Jul 27, 2014 5:41 pm

Based on some discussion in the top 100 project, I took a deeper look at performances against "good" and "bad" defenses. While I sliced the data in more than just this way, here we will call "good" defenses as teams with a Defensive Rating of 103 or lower, and "bad" as teams at 107 or higher. (As of now) 12 players were examined, all in "prime" seasons.

1. "Bottom-Feeders"

Well, not quite bottom-feeders per se, but the first thing I looked at was the correlation between Game Score (simple linear weighting of box score inputs) and Offensive Box Score Expected Value (OBEV) which uses the expected value of all box offensive box score values. In lay terms, these are two distillations of the classic box score, the first will reward more volume scoring, the second will reward more efficient offensive "results" (including turnovers).

A higher correlation coefficient between opposing defenses and these composite metrics suggests that a player performs better as the defense becomes easier. This doesn't make someone a bottom-feeder necessarily -- his performance could be quite strong against good defenses to begin with -- but it does represent a relationship between a player's box score stats and the quality of the opposing D. A low coefficient means the player is "flat" or defensively agnostic, and produces similarly against either good or bad defenses.

    Regular Season correlation; Game Score and Opposing Defenses
    Garnett 99-08 0.04
    Duncan 99-08 0.05
    Shaq 96-05 0.05
    Dirk 01-11 0.06
    Olajuwon 86-96 0.13
    K Malone 88-98 0.13
    Robinson 90-98 0.14
    LeBron 08-14 0.14
    Jordan 87-98 0.15
    Kobe 01-10 0.16
    Miller 90-00 0.19

Some of that could be the defensive component of the box score that Game Score includes that was not removed for this study. What happens looking at the same regular season data from the vantage point of OBEV?

    Regular Season correlation; OBEV and Opposing Defenses
    Dirk 01-11 0.03
    LeBron 08-14 0.10
    Shaq 96-05 0.10
    Miller 90-00 0.12
    Garnett 99-08 0.13
    K Malone 88-98 0.14
    Duncan 99-08 0.15
    Olajuwon 86-96 0.17
    Jordan 87-98 0.17
    Robinson 90-98 0.18
    Kobe 01-10 0.23

The players most likely to improve against bad defenses: Kobe Bryant. Robinson, Jordan and Karl Malone show movement on both lists. Dirk looks very flat -- it doesn't matter what the defense is against him. (We'll look at actual level of production in a moment.) What happens in the PS?

    Post Season correlation; Game Score and Opposing Defenses
    Duncan 99-08 -0.01
    Garnett 99-08 0.01
    Shaq 96-05 0.03
    Olajuwon 86-96 0.07
    Dirk 01-11 0.09
    Miller 90-00 0.14
    K Malone 88-98 0.16
    LeBron 08-14 0.19
    Robinson 90-98 0.24
    Jordan 87-98 0.25
    Kobe 01-10 0.27

    Post Season correlation; OBEV and Opposing Defenses
    Shaq 96-05 0.01
    Duncan 99-08 0.06
    Dirk 01-11 0.09
    Garnett 99-08 0.11
    Miller 90-00 0.16
    K Malone 88-98 0.17
    Olajuwon 86-96 0.17
    Jordan 87-98 0.20
    LeBron 08-14 0.23
    Robinson 90-98 0.24
    Kobe 01-10 0.30

The numbers are more pronounced in the PS, where Kobe (surprisingly) shows a more severe trend than even David Robinson (saddled with the reputation of falling off against good defenses). We'll see what exactly this looks like in a moment when we compare the actual numbers. Not far behind, LeBron and Jordan also show a moderate trend. Duncan and Garnett are relatively flat, and Shaq and Dirk essentially don't really seem to care who is on the other side of the court. CAUTION: Before running with a narrative based on this data, let's look at the actual results to gain a more refined perspective of what happens against good and bad defenses.

2. Regular Season: Good vs. Bad Defenses

For this and the remaining sections I used a 107/103 split for good/bad defenses. This is to try and normalize the data as much as possible across different environment, but it also leaves players with smallish samples at times because they either played really good or really easy defenses. That will be noted when applicable.

How did these same 12 guys fare against 107/103s?

Image

You can see how the core elements of the data reflect the correlations from section 1. Kobe, Robinson, Jordan and Karl Malone have fairly large discrepancies between their "good"defense and "bad" defense metrics. While Olajuwon looks completely flat here, note he only played 32 games (!) against sub-103 defenses in these 11 years. Compare this to Garnett, who played more games against good defenses in this period (like Shaq) and a total of 231 games against sub-103 defenses.

As usual, metrics aren't kind to Kobe. He has the lowest TS% in the RS among this group against sub-103's, the second-lowest GmSc and the lowest OBEV. David Robinson -- the inspiration of this study -- does drop off, but he does not look like an outlier in this regard. Finally, it's poetic to see Duncan and Garnett with almost identical pts/36 and TS% numbers against the sub-103's, although Garnett is above Duncan in GmSc and OBEV. The largest drop off in assists from good to bad defense belongs to...Michael Jordan.

3. Post Season: Good vs. Bad Defenses

What happens in the playoffs?

Image

Right off the bat, note that most of these players no longer play bad defenses in the PS. This is perhaps one of the oldest adages in basketball, and this case, it's very, very true. It is rare to encounter bad defenses in the PS, and even rarer to encounter them in the critical 3rd and 4th rounds of the PS where teams are better. Thus, emphasis in this section will be on the sub-103 performance alone.

Dirk looks fantastic: 21/36 and 57% TS, with 16 GmSc and 4.3 OBEV. The best and worst of the group against sub-103s:

    Best vs sub-103 defenses, PS
    OBEV: LeBron +4.7
    GmSc: Jordan 19.5
    Pts/36: Jordan 27.0
    TS%: Miller 58.9%

    Worst vs sub-103 defenses, PS
    OBEV: Garnett +1.6
    GmSc: Jordan 13.9
    Pts/36: Robinson 18.2
    TS%: Malone 50.7%

All sorts of common beliefs being supported there. First, we see evidence for Miller upholding his impressive postseason reputation as well as his performance against quality defenses. LeBron looks amazing. Garnett has an offensive dip in the PS, Robinson no longer looks very good in the box score, and Karl Malone's impressive scoring efficiency disappears. It should be noted though that a good chunk of this is from FT shooting. In these 36 games, Malone's FT% goes from ~ 74% in the RS to 66.5%. At 7.4 FTA per 36 (down from 9.1 in the RS). 74% FT shooting would put his TS% at 52% and pts/36 at 22.3.

However, look what happens when you compare these numbers to the other players in the group:

Duncan and Garnett have nearly identical volume against good defenses, Duncan trumps him with a 2.4% TS% advantage that, along with a better foul-draw, gains him 1.3 points of value in OBEV. Kobe and Jordan are both around 53% against elite defenses -- but note Kobe played in such a hard defensive environment that his average sub-103 defense is 2 full points better than Jordan's. Nonetheless, Jordan maintains a huge volume advantage. Robinson and Olajuwon...the thing to note there is that neither played many games against hard defenses!

4. Regular Season: Good vs. Bad Defenses

What changed in the PS? The table below reflects the differences between the RS and PS performances against plus-107's and sub-103's. Note that for plus-107's, Shaq, Miller, Kobe, Garnett and Duncan all play under 20 PS games, and for sub-103's Hakeem and Robinson play under 20 PS games.

Image

Karl Malone! Malone, consistent with his well-established overall performance drop in the PS, has a large and comparable drop off against both quality of defenses in the PS. (Whether that's because of flaws in Malone, Utah, or both cannot be determined just from this data.) Compare that to Garnett, who actually sees a relatively small PS drop off against good defenses.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, again...Reggie Miller. The scoring takes a large bump and the efficiency. Olajuwon's improvement is against plus-107's mainly. Shaq has a small drop off, although notice he plays harder sub-103's. David Robinson completely falls off against the easy defenses. Kobe, in 76 games sees his scoring go down with a comparable hold in efficiency, but like Shaq, he played harder sub-103's in the PS.

5. Conclusion

This data reinforces other slices of the box score that show players performance declining in the PS. Among these 11 stars, there's an average playoff drop of about 0.6 pts/36 and 1% in TS. GmSc goes down by 0.8 pts (interestingly, OBEV is almost the same). Of course, defenses are slightly harder in the PS as well.

As far as "good"/"bad" defensive split go, it's also clear that it is, in general, harder to perform well against better defenses. In the RS sample, the group had the following averages:

    vs. 107+: 25 pts/36 | 59.% TS | 20.7 GmSC | +5.0 OBEV
    vs. 103-: 23.2 pts/36 | 55.5% TS | 17.9 GmSc | +3.4 OBEV

The average defense faced was over 8.5 points better in DRtg in the sub-103 group. All told, this information is simply a report of the box score, and the key box score metrics. It must be noted that this does not entirely map to offensive goodness for a number of reasons -- team context, role and creation are completely ignored.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#2 » by Imon » Sun Jul 27, 2014 5:49 pm

Interesting read. Thanks for your work.

I hope this thread doesn't degenerate into another, "Oh, advanced stats making Kobe look bad thread."

BTW it is interesting that in your analysis that bigs (C/PF) seem to have an easier time maintaining scoring consistency vs teams with good and bad defensive ratings.
This is probably due to the fact that the talent pool among bigs isn't as deep and those who are especially skilled have a easier time scoring (especially since post scoring often times is a 1-on-1 situation).
Athletic and mobile defensive bigs are also less common than athletic wings who can guard guys like Miller, Kobe, and Jordan. It's rough sometimes for a guard in the NBA.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#3 » by colts18 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:15 am

Awesome post Elgee. You had Shaq at 100 great defenses to 7 bad defenses ratio. It's amazing what he was able to put up despite facing the hardest slate of defenses in history. His prime could be argued really close to MJ's when you factor in that MJ faced much weaker competition than Shaq. MJ has 1 career series vs a sub 100 defense while Shaq has 13 of them.

Elgee, your post says that MJ had the worst game score in the playoffs against great defenses. That can't be right. If so, wow.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#4 » by An Unbiased Fan » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:57 am

Really great work Elgee! :nod:

Seeing MJ, Kobe, Lebron with some of the wildest swings tells me that the very nature of what "makes" great team defense relates heavily to how a team is impacting things like driving lanes, preventing transition plays, and closing out on threes. in fact, looking at MJ & Kobe, it seems 3pt shooting is what dropped off.

Would love to see 103-107 number(average defenses). Last time we looked at them, I think MJ/Kobe feasted on them too. Seems that "extra" gear against average to bad defense plays out better, than stability against bad defenses. As you pointed out, the numbers of great defensive teams out there are rare, so having an "extra" gear seems more impactful and may speak for why MJ/Kobe were so successful in their runs. In general, what I've seen is that great defensive teams(think 90's Knicks/00's Spurs) like to keep scores low, so the star can shoot a lower efficiency....as long as he can get it going in the 4th(think 02 Spurs/Lakers). The practice of keeping scores low is not great in my opinion in any sport frankly. Conversely, In series against non great defenses, these stars shift to hyper volume scoring mode, and usually win in 4-6 games. Very eye-opening.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#5 » by Melodabeast » Mon Jul 28, 2014 5:56 am

01-10 Kobe in the reg season: 28.5/5.8/5.2/1.7/0.5/56% TS/113 ORTG. 4 of these seasons where spent in the GOAT defensive era (01, 02, 03, 04)

01-10 Kobe in the post-season: 28.8/5.7/5.4/1.5/0.6/55% TS/111 ORTG. Played better post-season defenses than any superstar in history over the course of his prime, and again, 4 of these post-seasons were spent in the GOAT defensive era.

Yeah, he really drops off against better defenses/teams....not.

Not to mention his best playoff runs are easily better (2001, 2008, 2009, 2010) **** on anything (except Duncan/Jordan/James/Hakeem) the rest of these guys ever did.

lol @ "as usual, the metrics aren't kind to bryant" when he's easily playing the best defenses.

Nice try doe.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#6 » by ThaRegul8r » Mon Jul 28, 2014 6:32 am

colts18 wrote:Elgee, your post says that MJ had the worst game score in the playoffs against great defenses. That can't be right. If so, wow.


Seeing how no one had done the research until he did, I'm not sure how it "can't be right" if it was previously unknown.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#7 » by NinjaSheppard » Mon Jul 28, 2014 6:24 pm

Melodabeast wrote:01-10 Kobe in the reg season: 28.5/5.8/5.2/1.7/0.5/56% TS/113 ORTG. 4 of these seasons where spent in the GOAT defensive era (01, 02, 03, 04)

01-10 Kobe in the post-season: 28.8/5.7/5.4/1.5/0.6/55% TS/111 ORTG. Played better post-season defenses than any superstar in history over the course of his prime, and again, 4 of these post-seasons were spent in the GOAT defensive era.

Yeah, he really drops off against better defenses/teams....not.

Not to mention his best playoff runs are easily better (2001, 2008, 2009, 2010) **** on anything (except Duncan/Jordan/James/Hakeem) the rest of these guys ever did.

lol @ "as usual, the metrics aren't kind to bryant" when he's easily playing the best defenses.

Nice try doe.


No one in this topic bashed Kobe Bryant and he posted the data for everyone with the same criteria. Calm down
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#8 » by john248 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 10:59 pm

Nice work. Looks like Kobe has seen a ton of sub-103 teams though looks like it's due to era difference.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#9 » by Greatness » Mon Jul 28, 2014 11:23 pm

Melodabeast wrote:01-10 Kobe in the reg season: 28.5/5.8/5.2/1.7/0.5/56% TS/113 ORTG. 4 of these seasons where spent in the GOAT defensive era (01, 02, 03, 04)

01-10 Kobe in the post-season: 28.8/5.7/5.4/1.5/0.6/55% TS/111 ORTG. Played better post-season defenses than any superstar in history over the course of his prime, and again, 4 of these post-seasons were spent in the GOAT defensive era.

Yeah, he really drops off against better defenses/teams....not.

Not to mention his best playoff runs are easily better (2001, 2008, 2009, 2010) **** on anything (except Duncan/Jordan/James/Hakeem) the rest of these guys ever did.

lol @ "as usual, the metrics aren't kind to bryant" when he's easily playing the best defenses.

Nice try doe.

Posts like these make it really easy to tell who is reading and who isn't. Everything Elgee posted is a fact, how can you just ignore it?
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#10 » by semi-sentient » Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:03 am

Posted this in another thread, but I think it would be better to use a dRtg that's relative to league average to filter out good defenses. Case in point, Dirk's stats are (likely) included from his series against the 2001 Jazz (#12 defense) and 2003 Blazers (#13 defense) because they had a dRtg below 103, but both of those teams were slightly above league average. On the flip side, none of Kobe's series against the Jazz or Nuggets from 08-10 would be included despite those teams being top 10 defenses, and that's 5 great series which Kobe had that would undoubtedly boost his scoring and efficiency.

Edit:

I looked at the teams Jordan faced in the playoffs throughout his career and he definitely gets shafted due to the arbitrary 103 dRtg cut-off.

'85 Bucks (#2 defense, 103.6 dRtg)
'88 Cavs (#5 defense, 106.0 dRtg)
'88 Pistons (#2 defense, 105.3 dRtg)
'89 Pistons (#3 defense, 104.7 dRtg)
'90 Pistons (#2 defense, 103.5 dRtg)
'91 Pistons (#4 defense, 104.6 dRtg)
'91 Lakers (#5 defense, 105.0 dRtg)
'92 Knicks (#2 defense, 104.2 dRtg)
'93 Blazers (#3 defense, 104.2 dRtg)
'93 Cavs (#6 defense, 106.0 dRtg)
'96 Heat (#6 defense, 103.8 dRtg)
'96 Knicks (#4 defense, 103.5 dRtg)

Basically, based on the criteria used, the Bad Boy Pistons wouldn't be considered a good defensive team. Other notably good/tough defenses include the Knicks and Heat of the early/mid 90's.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#11 » by etopn23 » Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:03 am

Melodabeast wrote:
Not to mention his best playoff runs are easily better (2001, 2008, 2009, 2010) **** on anything (except Duncan/Jordan/James/Hakeem) the rest of these guys ever did.



Honestly? I'm more impressed by what Dirk did in 2011 than any of Kobe's playoff runs. I don't think Kobe could have ever carried a team the way he did that year. Yeah, other people stepped up - but the first 3 rounds leading up to the finals was all Dirk.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#12 » by Melodabeast » Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:31 am

Greatness wrote:
Melodabeast wrote:01-10 Kobe in the reg season: 28.5/5.8/5.2/1.7/0.5/56% TS/113 ORTG. 4 of these seasons where spent in the GOAT defensive era (01, 02, 03, 04)

01-10 Kobe in the post-season: 28.8/5.7/5.4/1.5/0.6/55% TS/111 ORTG. Played better post-season defenses than any superstar in history over the course of his prime, and again, 4 of these post-seasons were spent in the GOAT defensive era.

Yeah, he really drops off against better defenses/teams....not.

Not to mention his best playoff runs are easily better (2001, 2008, 2009, 2010) **** on anything (except Duncan/Jordan/James/Hakeem) the rest of these guys ever did.

lol @ "as usual, the metrics aren't kind to bryant" when he's easily playing the best defenses.

Nice try doe.

Posts like these make it really easy to tell who is reading and who isn't. Everything Elgee posted is a fact, how can you just ignore it?
They're only facts if you ignore context and don't understand how useless raw DRTG is.

It's arbitrary nonsense with no cutoff. Using a <103 DRTG as a mark of a "good defense" when those defenses would be average in the GOAT defensive 99-04 era where Bryant spent 4 years of his prime is silly...

use DRTG relative to league average and I bet Bryant is easily #1 (maybe only Shaq is ahead) in terms of playoff defenses played

For example, here's his comp during the 2004 playoffs:
the rockets (#5 defense, -3.9 relative to league average)
the spurs (GOAT level defense, #1 ranked, -8.8! relative to league average)
the wolves (#6, -3.3 relative to league average)
the pistons (GOAT level defense,#2 ranked defense, -7.5! relative to league average...but these numbers don't tell the full story. after the rasheed wallece trade the pistons had a defensive rating of 91.9 . that's -10.9!!! relative to league average. this is easily the best defense ever)

Not a single one of those stars (except Shaq) has a post-season where they played the same type of defensive
comp. Not even close.

And that's just one post-season.

But under the OP's arbitrary criteria a GOAT level defense like the 04 Pistons/04 Spurs gets counted the same as other <103 defenses.

And a team like the 09 Magic (101.9 DRTG) would be considered just another 'good defense' when in fact they're historically great (-6.2 relative to league average)

Just silly.

So you can understand why people get annoyed when OP says things like 'as usual, the metrics aren't kind to Bryant" while completely ignoring the fact that his defensive comp has almost certainly been significantly greater relative to league average.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#13 » by colts18 » Tue Jul 29, 2014 2:01 pm

semi-sentient wrote:Posted this in another thread, but I think it would be better to use a dRtg that's relative to league average to filter out good defenses. Case in point, Dirk's stats are (likely) included from his series against the 2001 Jazz (#12 defense) and 2003 Blazers (#13 defense) because they had a dRtg below 103, but both of those teams were slightly above league average. On the flip side, none of Kobe's series against the Jazz or Nuggets from 08-10 would be included despite those teams being top 10 defenses, and that's 5 great series which Kobe had that would undoubtedly boost his scoring and efficiency.



I completely disagree. A league average 103 Defense is still harder to score on than a 105 Defense that is top 5. One of the reasons you use D rating is because you also adjust for era and rule changes. For example, the 2008 Celtics might be the best defense in history (99 D rating) but it will be harder to score on the 2004 Spurs (95 D rating) because of the era, rule changes, etc. That has to be adjusted for. You can't reward a player for playing in an easy environment for scoring.

Let's compare the 2001 Jazz to 2009 Jazz:
2001 Jazz: 102.4 D rating, 13th best
2009 Jazz: 107.3 D rating, 10th best

Opponents shot:
2001 Jazz: 43.9 FG%, 34.3 3P%
2009 Jazz: 46.4 FG%, 36.1 3P%

Which defense is going to be easier to score on? The 09 Jazz might be a better defense, but its easier to score on them due to rule changes and environment. That has to be factored in.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#14 » by semi-sentient » Tue Jul 29, 2014 2:30 pm

Do you agree that the Bad Boy Pistons and mid-90's Knicks/Heat weren't good defensive teams? I have a very hard time accepting that, particularly when you consider the amount of defensive attention that Jordan faced which doesn't get captured by compiling stats alone (I guess that's why discussing the results is important -- context is needed).

I agree that you have to factor in the era differences, but it can't be all about dRtg. If that's the case, then why not 102? Why not 100? If you change the baseline value by just 1 point then it makes a huge difference in terms of who faced good defensive teams and who didn't.

Perhaps it's best to only compare players within the same era and judge how they did against similar defenses if it's going to be based on dRtg. What is the real benefit of saying that Jordan had the best GmSc if the good defenses he faced aren't comparable to the good defenses Shaq faced? That doesn't really tell me much about who was better against good defenses. It's an interesting set of results, but it definitely leaves a lot to be desired, and sadly, the results are already being used misused all over the PC board.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#15 » by mooncheese » Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:12 pm

maybe some sensitivity analysis on those arbitrary cutoffs
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#16 » by mooncheese » Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:13 pm

i think it's better if a player is taking MORE advantage of bad defenses because otherwise, the player isn't forcing the defense to be great to stop them.

in theory, a player should be taking advantage of bad defenses to avoid being exploitable by the DEFENSE.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#17 » by Senior » Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:29 pm

Could this be done with say, the top half of defenses or something like the top x defenses? As semi-sentient alluded to, great defensive teams like the Bad Boy Pistons weren't counted...we can agree that the Bad Boy Pistons are a hard defense, right?
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#18 » by G35 » Wed Jul 30, 2014 2:02 am

Senior wrote:Could this be done with say, the top half of defenses or something like the top x defenses? As semi-sentient alluded to, great defensive teams like the Bad Boy Pistons weren't counted...we can agree that the Bad Boy Pistons are a hard defense, right?



If the Bad Boys happens to not meet a certain metric that is accepted by the stat guru's then no they wouldn't be considered a top defense. People's minds are changed from what they see or are told by narratives and media. This is good, we can change our perceptions of what is accepted and break boundaries.....
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#19 » by ElGee » Wed Jul 30, 2014 3:41 am

I'm sure there is a psychological phenomenon taking place but I'll let it be. In general, if you want relative defenses, you should compare relative statistics against them. For raw statistics, you use raw defenses. The classification of when something becomes "good" or "bad" is completely arbitrary for this data. For a thread title, "107/103" didn't quite have a zing to it...nor does it represent that point.

As I said, I did slice this data multiple ways myself. I posted with the 107/103 splits because I felt it was the simplest, most tangible capture of a lot of really dense data. Here's a visual (method: histogram based on 20+ games against each DRtg type. Note some of the correlations between DRtg and OBEV are massive for some players). Players are listed in order of steepest to flattest curves:

Image

Image

The easiest macro takeaway from the visual is what was observed earlier -- bigs have flatter curves. Also note that while these equations (polynomial) were best for R-squared values, I wouldn't call these perfect models by any means. For instance, Hakeem's bow is slightly exaggerated.
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Re: Regular and Post Season -- Superstars vs. Easy/Hard Defe 

Post#20 » by ISB » Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:29 am

semi-sentient wrote:Do you agree that the Bad Boy Pistons and mid-90's Knicks/Heat weren't good defensive teams? I have a very hard time accepting that, particularly when you consider the amount of defensive attention that Jordan faced which doesn't get captured by compiling stats alone (I guess that's why discussing the results is important -- context is needed).

I agree that you have to factor in the era differences, but it can't be all about dRtg. If that's the case, then why not 102? Why not 100? If you change the baseline value by just 1 point then it makes a huge difference in terms of who faced good defensive teams and who didn't.

Perhaps it's best to only compare players within the same era and judge how they did against similar defenses if it's going to be based on dRtg. What is the real benefit of saying that Jordan had the best GmSc if the good defenses he faced aren't comparable to the good defenses Shaq faced? That doesn't really tell me much about who was better against good defenses. It's an interesting set of results, but it definitely leaves a lot to be desired, and sadly, the results are already being used misused all over the PC board.


"not good" is not the same thing as "relatively not hard to score on." I think using DRTG makes sense.

I agree with mooncheese that the flaw with this study is the arbitrary cutoff.

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