theBigLip Annual Tank, er, Playoff Predictor

[theBigLip]

Yahoo. Every year I've been putting together a model to predict our tanking. Looks like we can predict some goodness in the model this year I'll start adding the other teams, but for my first post, I'm putting out the rest of our schedule and a rough win prediction. The total? 42 wins. That would be amazing considering our start. Here is the initial prediction:


Mon, Jan 19 @ Atlanta Loss 16 26
Wed, Jan 21 vs Orlando Win 17 26
Sat, Jan 24 @ Milwaukee Win 18 26
Sun, Jan 25 @ Toronto Loss 18 27
Tue, Jan 27 vs Cleveland Win 19 27
Wed, Jan 28 @ Philadelphia Win 20 27
Sat, Jan 31 vs Houston Loss 20 28
Tue, Feb 3 vs Miami Win 21 28
Wed, Feb 4 @ Indiana Win 22 28
Fri, Feb 6 vs Denver Win 23 28
Sun, Feb 8 vs Minnesota Win 24 28
Tue, Feb 10 @ Charlotte Win 25 28
Wed, Feb 11 vs San Antonio Loss 25 29
Fri, Feb 20 vs Chicago Loss 25 30
Sun, Feb 22 vs Washington Loss 25 31
Tue, Feb 24 vs Cleveland Win 26 31
Fri, Feb 27 vs NY Knicks Win 27 31
Sat, Feb 28 @ Washington Loss 27 32
Wed, Mar 4 @ New Orleans Win 28 32
Fri, Mar 6 @ Houston Loss 28 33
Sun, Mar 8 vs Charlotte Win 29 33
Tue, Mar 10 @ Los Angeles L Win 30 33
Wed, Mar 11 @ Golden State Loss 30 34
Fri, Mar 13 @ Portland Loss 30 35
Sat, Mar 14 @ Utah Win 31 35
Tue, Mar 17 vs Memphis Loss 31 36
Wed, Mar 18 @ Philadelphia Win 32 36
Sat, Mar 21 vs Chicago Loss 32 37
Sun, Mar 22 @ Boston Win 33 37
Tue, Mar 24 vs Toronto Loss 33 38
Fri, Mar 27 @ Orlando Win 34 38
Sun, Mar 29 @ Miami Win 35 38
Tue, Mar 31 vs Atlanta Loss 35 39
Wed, Apr 1 @ Charlotte Win 36 39
Fri, Apr 3 @ Chicago Loss 36 40
Sat, Apr 4 vs Miami Win 37 40
Wed, Apr 8 vs Boston Win 38 40
Fri, Apr 10 vs Indiana Win 39 40
Sun, Apr 12 vs Charlotte Win 40 40
Mon, Apr 13 @ Cleveland Win 41 40
Wed, Apr 15 @ NY Knicks Win 42 40

[Phenomenonsense]

26-15 would be pretty incredible.

[zeebneeb]

This seems really optimistic, but I see you have them losing to every good team, and beating the bad. The next 5 games for the Pistons are huge. If they could go 3-2 your predictions look solid. @Hawks @bucks and @raptors in that is TOUGH. I am instantly putting a L at the HAWKS and Raptors games, so to go 3-2, it's about the bucks.

I'll be checking back for comparisons!

[Phenomenonsense]

Looking over it more extensively, I think we will probably lose to orlando at least once, indiana at least once, Cleveland probably twice, miami 1-2 times, Charlotte once, the Pelicans, and I think we actually come out and make a statement against the Bucks. I think we have probably 8 more losses more than you're thinking.

EDIT: That said, we will probably pull out a win or two against better teams.

[Southern Piston]

The east is so bad we could probably play .500 basketball from this point out and squeak into the playoffs. Thats what I think we should get that at the least, I bet we finish in the 5,6, or 7th seed.

[theBigLip]

26-15 would be pretty incredible.

I guess that is what it calculates out to. But that's a lot of East games - so it seems realistic.

[Lucidity]

If we somehow end 42-40 after a 30 game head start for everyone else that would virtually translate to a 55'ish win season.

That would be insane, that should further solidify Monroe/Drum as the cornerstones to a Championship contending team. We would in essence go from a 25 win team to a 50 win team in 2 years with those 2 as our cornerstones.

[theBigLip]

If we somehow end 42-40 after a 30 game head start for everyone else that would virtually translate to a 55'ish win season.

That would be insane, that should further solidify Monroe/Drum as the cornerstones to a Championship contending team. We would in essence go from a 25 win team to a 50 win team in 2 years with those 2 as our cornerstones.

Let's hope we can keep Monroe.

[Kilo]

I'll say 35-38 wins.

[Kilo]

I'll say 35-38 wins.

[bstein14]

I think we finish with somewhere between 38 and 42 wins on the season... I guess if I had to pick an exact # I'd go with 40 wins... falling just short of .500 on the year after our horrible start.

[theBigLip]

The predictor has been perfect for 1 game Orlando and Milwaukee should be wins. I just changed Cleveland's status to a good team. LBJ is back and they're better than us with him on his game. So that's 3 more losses. 39 wins sounds more realistic.

Wed, Jan 21 vs Orlando Win 17 26
Sat, Jan 24 @ Milwaukee Win 18 26
Sun, Jan 25 @ Toronto Loss 18 27
Tue, Jan 27 vs Cleveland Loss 18 28
Wed, Jan 28 @ Philadelphia Win 19 28
Sat, Jan 31 vs Houston Loss 19 29
Tue, Feb 3 vs Miami Win 20 29
Wed, Feb 4 @ Indiana Win 21 29
Fri, Feb 6 vs Denver Win 22 29
Sun, Feb 8 vs Minnesota Win 23 29
Tue, Feb 10 @ Charlotte Win 24 29
Wed, Feb 11 vs San Antonio Loss 24 30
Fri, Feb 20 vs Chicago Loss 24 31
Sun, Feb 22 vs Washington Loss 24 32
Tue, Feb 24 vs Cleveland Loss 24 33
Fri, Feb 27 vs NY Knicks Win 25 33
Sat, Feb 28 @ Washington Loss 25 34
Wed, Mar 4 @ New Orleans Win 26 34
Fri, Mar 6 @ Houston Loss 26 35
Sun, Mar 8 vs Charlotte Win 27 35
Tue, Mar 10 @ Los Angeles L Win 28 35
Wed, Mar 11 @ Golden State Loss 28 36
Fri, Mar 13 @ Portland Loss 28 37
Sat, Mar 14 @ Utah Win 29 37
Tue, Mar 17 vs Memphis Loss 29 38
Wed, Mar 18 @ Philadelphia Win 30 38
Sat, Mar 21 vs Chicago Loss 30 39
Sun, Mar 22 @ Boston Win 31 39
Tue, Mar 24 vs Toronto Loss 31 40
Fri, Mar 27 @ Orlando Win 32 40
Sun, Mar 29 @ Miami Win 33 40
Tue, Mar 31 vs Atlanta Loss 33 41
Wed, Apr 1 @ Charlotte Win 34 41
Fri, Apr 3 @ Chicago Loss 34 42
Sat, Apr 4 vs Miami Win 35 42
Wed, Apr 8 vs Boston Win 36 42
Fri, Apr 10 vs Indiana Win 37 42
Sun, Apr 12 vs Charlotte Win 38 42
Mon, Apr 13 @ Cleveland Loss 38 43
Wed, Apr 15 @ NY Knicks Win 39 43

[theBigLip]

Another win, still holding true.

Sat, Jan 24 @ Milwaukee Win 18 26
Sun, Jan 25 @ Toronto Loss 18 27
Tue, Jan 27 vs Cleveland Loss 18 28
Wed, Jan 28 @ Philadelphia Win 19 28
Sat, Jan 31 vs Houston Loss 19 29
Tue, Feb 3 vs Miami Win 20 29
Wed, Feb 4 @ Indiana Win 21 29
Fri, Feb 6 vs Denver Win 22 29
Sun, Feb 8 vs Minnesota Win 23 29
Tue, Feb 10 @ Charlotte Win 24 29
Wed, Feb 11 vs San Antonio Loss 24 30
Fri, Feb 20 vs Chicago Loss 24 31
Sun, Feb 22 vs Washington Loss 24 32
Tue, Feb 24 vs Cleveland Loss 24 33
Fri, Feb 27 vs NY Knicks Win 25 33
Sat, Feb 28 @ Washington Loss 25 34
Wed, Mar 4 @ New Orleans Win 26 34
Fri, Mar 6 @ Houston Loss 26 35
Sun, Mar 8 vs Charlotte Win 27 35
Tue, Mar 10 @ Los Angeles L Win 28 35
Wed, Mar 11 @ Golden State Loss 28 36
Fri, Mar 13 @ Portland Loss 28 37
Sat, Mar 14 @ Utah Win 29 37
Tue, Mar 17 vs Memphis Loss 29 38
Wed, Mar 18 @ Philadelphia Win 30 38
Sat, Mar 21 vs Chicago Loss 30 39
Sun, Mar 22 @ Boston Win 31 39
Tue, Mar 24 vs Toronto Loss 31 40
Fri, Mar 27 @ Orlando Win 32 40
Sun, Mar 29 @ Miami Win 33 40
Tue, Mar 31 vs Atlanta Loss 33 41
Wed, Apr 1 @ Charlotte Win 34 41
Fri, Apr 3 @ Chicago Loss 34 42
Sat, Apr 4 vs Miami Win 35 42
Wed, Apr 8 vs Boston Win 36 42
Fri, Apr 10 vs Indiana Win 37 42
Sun, Apr 12 vs Charlotte Win 38 42
Mon, Apr 13 @ Cleveland Loss 38 43
Wed, Apr 15 @ NY Knicks Win 39 43

[theBigLip]

Ok, I updated the model. Good news is that Detroit wins 42 games. Bad news, we tie for Charlotte for #8 seed. Here is Detroit:

Sat, Jan 24 @ Milwaukee Loss 17 27
Sun, Jan 25 @ Toronto Loss 17 28
Tue, Jan 27 vs Cleveland Win 18 28
Wed, Jan 28 @ Philadelphia Win 19 28
Sat, Jan 31 vs Houston Win 20 28
Tue, Feb 3 vs Miami Win 21 28
Wed, Feb 4 @ Indiana Win 22 28
Fri, Feb 6 vs Denver Win 23 28
Sun, Feb 8 vs Minnesota Win 24 28
Tue, Feb 10 @ Charlotte Loss 24 29
Wed, Feb 11 vs San Antonio Win 25 29
Fri, Feb 20 vs Chicago Win 26 29
Sun, Feb 22 vs Washington Win 27 29
Tue, Feb 24 vs Cleveland Win 28 29
Fri, Feb 27 vs NY Knicks Win 29 29
Sat, Feb 28 @ Washington Loss 29 30
Wed, Mar 4 @ New Orleans Loss 29 31
Fri, Mar 6 @ Houston Loss 29 32
Sun, Mar 8 vs Charlotte Win 30 32
Tue, Mar 10 @ LA Lakers Win 31 32
Wed, Mar 11 @ Golden State Loss 31 33
Fri, Mar 13 @ Portland Loss 31 34
Sat, Mar 14 @ Utah Win 32 34
Tue, Mar 17 vs Memphis Loss 32 35
Wed, Mar 18 @ Philadelphia Win 33 35
Sat, Mar 21 vs Chicago Win 34 35
Sun, Mar 22 @ Boston Win 35 35
Tue, Mar 24 vs Toronto Win 36 35
Fri, Mar 27 @ Orlando Win 37 35
Sun, Mar 29 @ Miami Loss 37 36
Tue, Mar 31 vs Atlanta Loss 37 37
Wed, Apr 1 @ Charlotte Loss 37 38
Fri, Apr 3 @ Chicago Loss 37 39
Sat, Apr 4 vs Miami Win 38 39
Wed, Apr 8 vs Boston Win 39 39
Fri, Apr 10 vs Indiana Win 40 39
Sun, Apr 12 vs Charlotte Win 41 39
Mon, Apr 13 @ Cleveland Loss 41 40
Wed, Apr 15 @ NY Knicks Win 42 40

[theBigLip]

Milwaukee - wow, 8 wins to finish the season.

Sat, Jan 24 vs Detroit Win 22 21
Sun, Jan 25 @ San Antonio Loss 22 22
Tue, Jan 27 @ Miami Loss 22 23
Thu, Jan 29 @ Orlando Win 23 23
Sat, Jan 31 vs Portland Win 24 23
Mon, Feb 2 @ Toronto Loss 24 24
Wed, Feb 4 vs LA Lakers Win 25 24
Fri, Feb 6 @ Houston Loss 25 25
Sat, Feb 7 vs Boston Win 26 25
Mon, Feb 9 vs Brooklyn Win 27 25
Wed, Feb 11 vs Sacramento Win 28 25
Fri, Feb 20 vs Denver Win 29 25
Sun, Feb 22 vs Atlanta Loss 29 26
Mon, Feb 23 @ Chicago Loss 29 27
Wed, Feb 25 vs Philadelphia Win 30 27
Fri, Feb 27 @ LA Lakers Win 31 27
Sat, Feb 28 @ Utah Win 32 27
Tue, Mar 3 @ Denver Loss 32 28
Wed, Mar 4 @ Golden State Loss 32 29
Sat, Mar 7 vs Washington Win 33 29
Mon, Mar 9 vs New Orleans Win 34 29
Wed, Mar 11 vs Orlando Win 35 29
Thu, Mar 12 @ Indiana Win 36 29
Sat, Mar 14 @ Memphis Loss 36 30
Tue, Mar 17 @ New Orleans Loss 36 31
Wed, Mar 18 vs San Antonio Win 37 31
Fri, Mar 20 @ Brooklyn Loss 37 32
Sun, Mar 22 vs Cleveland Win 38 32
Tue, Mar 24 vs Miami Win 39 32
Thu, Mar 26 vs Indiana Win 40 32
Sat, Mar 28 vs Golden State Loss 40 33
Mon, Mar 30 @ Atlanta Loss 40 34
Wed, Apr 1 vs Chicago Win 41 34
Fri, Apr 3 @ Boston Win 42 34
Sat, Apr 4 vs Orlando Win 43 34
Wed, Apr 8 vs Cleveland Win 44 34
Fri, Apr 10 @ NY Knicks Win 45 34
Sun, Apr 12 vs Brooklyn Win 46 34
Mon, Apr 13 @ Philadelphia Win 47 34
Wed, Apr 15 vs Boston Win 48 34

[DocRI]

Ok, I updated the model. Good news is that Detroit wins 42 games. Bad news, we tie for Charlotte for #8 seed. Here is Detroit:

Thank you for doing these, Lip; I've always enjoyed them, but never as much as this year!

Quick question — can you explain your model, or is that a trade secret? I'm just curious because, for instance, it seems to really heavily weight home vs. road games. For instance, you have us losing @ CHA, yet beating HOU at home. Moreover, you have the Bucks beating the Cavs twice down the stretch, both games in MIL. I also saw that you now have MIL beating POR at home, and I'm assuming that result was changed due to Aldridge's injury? I'm just curious what ingredients, and how much of each, go into making this soup. Thanks again!

[theBigLip]

Ok, I updated the model. Good news is that Detroit wins 42 games. Bad news, we tie for Charlotte for #8 seed. Here is Detroit:

Thank you for doing these, Lip; I've always enjoyed them, but never as much as this year!

Quick question — can you explain your model, or is that a trade secret? I'm just curious because, for instance, it seems to really heavily weight home vs. road games. For instance, you have us losing @ CHA, yet beating HOU at home. Moreover, you have the Bucks beating the Cavs twice down the stretch, both games in MIL. I also saw that you now have MIL beating POR at home, and I'm assuming that result was changed due to Aldridge's injury? I'm just curious what ingredients, and how much of each, go into making this soup. Thanks again!

Glad to share the model, and also, happy to tweak it with feedback from the board. So here are the assumptions:

1. Everyone loses to "Great" team, home or away. I've categorized 3 teams this way - Golden State, Atlanta and Memphis.

2. Everyone beats "Bad" teams. Those are - Boston, Indiana, Lakers, Minnesota, Knicks, Orlando, Philly, Sacramento, and Utah.

3. Everyone else is considered a "Good" team. You beat these teams at home, but lose to them on the road.

So that's pretty simple. I know there are other factors - back-to-backs, etc, and maybe I'll add them in as well. The good things, if teams get a big injury or something, I can just recatorgorize the team and everything updates automatically.

[DocRI]

^ Thanks Lip! That's a fair system, and I'm interested to see how it plays out. Off the top of my head, I think there will always be outliers, like teams who somehow manage to play better on the road than at home (like us so far this year!), but I imagine those manage to mostly even themselves out over the course of a season. Regardless, it's fun to follow, especially when we're tracking wins towards a playoff berth instead of losses towards lottery balls!

[theBigLip]

^ Thanks Lip! That's a fair system, and I'm interested to see how it plays out. Off the top of my head, I think there will always be outliers, like teams who somehow manage to play better on the road than at home (like us so far this year!), but I imagine those manage to mostly even themselves out over the course of a season. Regardless, it's fun to follow, especially when we're tracking wins towards a playoff berth instead of losses towards lottery balls!

Yup. One thing that it is useful for is seeing how games impact the final standings. Tonight's game against the Bucks is a perfect example - if we beat them, it goes against the model, but we can see that it changes the final prediction with us pulling even closer. Anyway, it does look like Milwaukee has the easier schedule, so we'll have to pick it up to get to #6.

[theBigLip]

Yikes. Things are getting worse. Playoff predictor showing Milwaukee starting to get some space and secure #6. #7 spot is important - avoid Atlanta in the first round. Current standings:
Predicted Predicted
Team Wins Losses
Milwaukee 49 33
Miami 45 37
Charlotte 42 40
Detroit 41 41
Brooklyn 40 42