Hakeem vs Duncan: offense only

lorak · Post #1 » by **lorak** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:43 pm

Who was better offensive player during prime in regular season?

ceiling raiser · Post #2 » by **ceiling raiser** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 6:07 pm

Glad you started this thread after our conversation.

I'm not sure, really. Past-peak Hakeem from RAPM doesn't look very impressive offensively, but I think part of that is due to his age/decline, and part is due to the presence of Barkley (who looks like a monster offensively late in his career, perhaps there's some weird interaction effect going on there with Hakeem?).

That being said though, Duncan looks pretty good in offensive RAPM, with 07 being a weird outlier (in both NPI and RPI). As you noted, maybe assists/turnovers bolster his offense (as well as Pop's system).

I presently would prefer Hakeem but I'm perfectly willing to change my mind. Looking forward to the discussion in this thread.

Post #3 » by **Quotatious** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 6:07 pm

I'd prefer '93-'96 Olajuwon over peak/prime Duncan offensively (once he improved his passing and decision making in the '92-'93 season, Hakeem was more versatile and creative than Tim, as he could put the ball on the floor, attack from the high post or even from around the 3-point line, take the ball to the hoop against most bigs, and I think that his jumper was a bit better, although I don't have numbers on it, just going by eye-test here). Duncan's moves in the post never looked quite as natural as Olajuwon's, but they were very effective, too. Numbers-wise, Olajuwon has the edge (higher scoring average on similar efficiency, and very similar assists numbers, too. It's still fairly close.

Anything other than '93-'96 Hakeem, I would prefer Duncan, because Hakeem's passing and decision making with the ball were major flaws in his offensive game before that.

What's nice about these two guys is that they were excellent playoff performers on offense, at their peaks. Especially Olajuwon's '95 postseason was amazing in this regard - 33 PPG on 56% TS and his AST/TOV% ratio looked more like prime Kobe's, than what you might expect from a center. Pretty close to Jordan's postseasons in his prime (especially that series against D-Rob in the WCF).

lorak · Post #4 » by **lorak** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 6:23 pm

Quotatious wrote: Numbers-wise, Olajuwon has the edge (higher scoring average on similar efficiency, and very similar assists numbers, too. It's still fairly close.

By the numbers Duncan has clear edge:
'01-'04 Duncan 32.3 OWS (12211 MP), 2.8 OBPM
'93-'96 Hakeem 23.8 OWS (12169 MP), 1.8 OBPM

(only regular season, because that's what I'm asking about)

Post #5 » by **Quotatious** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 6:27 pm

lorak wrote:By the numbers Duncan has clear edge:
'01-'04 Duncan 32.3 OWS (12211 MP), 2.8 OBPM
'93-'96 Hakeem 23.8 OWS (12169 MP), 1.8 OBPM

(only regular season, because that's what I'm asking about)

Yeah, that makes me doubt whether my impressions really reflect reality well, but Hakeem was never really a monster on the level of MJ, LBJ or Shaq, as far as advanced stats (Kobe fans like to argue the same thing about their guy). Would be really nice to have RAPM data for the mid 90s Hakeem.

G35 · Post #6 » by **G35** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 6:34 pm

Honestly, I think Hakeem gets some extra points for his offensive ability because of the "dream shake" and his post game looked prettier than just about every other big man. However, he was a volume shooter and his TS% efficiency is nothing. For comparison Kobe, the goto example for any sort of efficiency "good or bad standard", has a career TS% of .553 which coincidentally is also Hakeem's career TS%. Hakeem's peak TS% was .577 but he normally fluctuated between .550 and .560.

Hakeem is the SG of centers imo, very flashy and pretty at times but not always efficient. I do not knock players for having average efficiency but it is a big deal to many. Honestly, Hakeem had two great regular season years and some all time great playoff performances and has parlayed that into being the "best two way center ever"......

lorak · Post #7 » by **lorak** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 6:41 pm

Quotatious wrote:
lorak wrote:By the numbers Duncan has clear edge:
'01-'04 Duncan 32.3 OWS (12211 MP), 2.8 OBPM
'93-'96 Hakeem 23.8 OWS (12169 MP), 1.8 OBPM

(only regular season, because that's what I'm asking about)

Yeah, that makes me doubt whether my impressions really reflect reality well, but Hakeem was never really a monster on the level of MJ, LBJ or Shaq, as far as advanced stats (Kobe fans like to argue the same thing about their guy). Would be really nice to have RAPM data for the mid 90s Hakeem.

RAPM would be nice, but box score describes offense pretty well.

I think main Hakeem's flaws on offense in comparison to Duncan were turnovers (he just didn't read game as well as Tim; flashy moves also didn't help here) and more midrange jumpers, while his shot wasn't that good (FT% indicates Olajuwon wasn't great enough shooter to justify high volume of jumpers). So what OWS and OBPM tell make sense IMHO.

BTW, Hakeem missed 10 games or more 5 times and except of 1996 team offense didn't regress a lot without him.

ceiling raiser · Post #8 » by **ceiling raiser** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 8:04 pm

lorak wrote:RAPM would be nice, but box score describes offense pretty well.

I think main Hakeem's flaws on offense in comparison to Duncan were turnovers (he just didn't read game as well as Tim; flashy moves also didn't help here) and more midrange jumpers, while his shot wasn't that good (FT% indicates Olajuwon wasn't great enough shooter to justify high volume of jumpers). So what OWS and OBPM tell make sense IMHO.

BTW, Hakeem missed 10 games or more 5 times and except of 1996 team offense didn't regress a lot without him.

Do you think it was sudden with Hakeem? Before 93 it seems from the tape he was relying a lot on speed/athleticism (spin-moves, finishing inside, and such), and starting that year, he moved more towards the sophisticated post game. Do you think at some point he started relying too much on the jumper? If so, do you think it was immediate, or gradual as he lost his athleticism?

Swagalicious · Post #9 » by **Swagalicious** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 8:12 pm

Hakeem's offensive improvement as far as awareness and passing is concerned came not-so coincidentally with Rudy T being hired and putting a non-retarded offensive system in place

Get Hakeem Pop and the Spurs organization his entire career and he'd be remembered much, much more favorably.

Odinn · Post #10 » by **Odinn** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 8:27 pm

I wouldn't put my faith on advanced stats over eye-test. What bothers me about Hakeem's offensive game is, he was truly ball dominant for a center. That's why I don't like Hakeem's offense. Other-wise, I don't think there are much to discuss about. I'd say peak vs. peak, it's Hakeem. Prime vs. Prime, I can lean towards Duncan tho.

lilroddyb · Post #11 » by **lilroddyb** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 8:29 pm

Hakeem has good TS% in the playoffs for his career compared to other greats. If Hakeem is inefficient then so are the other players

here is a list of some legends in career playoffs true shooting pct
Kareem: .5709
Hakeem: .5686
Shaq: .5649
Jordan: .5676

Tim Duncan: .5482
Kobe Bryant: .5412
Kevin Garnett: .5250

Shot Clock · Post #12 » by **Shot Clock** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 9:03 pm

G35 wrote:Honestly, I think Hakeem gets some extra points for his offensive ability because of the "dream shake" and his post game looked prettier than just about every other big man. However, he was a volume shooter and his TS% efficiency is nothing. For comparison Kobe, the goto example for any sort of efficiency "good or bad standard", has a career TS% of .553 which coincidentally is also Hakeem's career TS%. Hakeem's peak TS% was .577 but he normally fluctuated between .550 and .560.

Hakeem is the SG of centers imo, very flashy and pretty at times but not always efficient. I do not knock players for having average efficiency but it is a big deal to many. Honestly, Hakeem had two great regular season years and some all time great playoff performances and has parlayed that into being the "best two way center ever"......

Duncan's career TS% is .551. Olajuwon kept the same TS% on more volume. How can that be a knock against him especially when he played against better bigs?

G35 · Post #13 » by **G35** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 9:38 pm

Shot Clock wrote:
G35 wrote:Honestly, I think Hakeem gets some extra points for his offensive ability because of the "dream shake" and his post game looked prettier than just about every other big man. However, he was a volume shooter and his TS% efficiency is nothing. For comparison Kobe, the goto example for any sort of efficiency "good or bad standard", has a career TS% of .553 which coincidentally is also Hakeem's career TS%. Hakeem's peak TS% was .577 but he normally fluctuated between .550 and .560.

Hakeem is the SG of centers imo, very flashy and pretty at times but not always efficient. I do not knock players for having average efficiency but it is a big deal to many. Honestly, Hakeem had two great regular season years and some all time great playoff performances and has parlayed that into being the "best two way center ever"......

Duncan's career TS% is .551. Olajuwon kept the same TS% on more volume. How can that be a knock against him especially when he played against better bigs?

That's a good question for the efficiency advocates. I don't know why efficiency is such an end-all/be-all differentiator between players. It's generally one of the first AS's brought up if player comparisons and is the reason why one players offense is rated higher than someone relatively equal in statistics.

For example if this was Kobe vs Wade, the main point for Wade would be his efficiency. Which would allude that Wade is getting higher percentage looks for his team. So it would seem that if Kobe is not efficient enough, then what Hakeem, Duncan, and all those others lilroddyb listed.

For my two cents efficiency can be overrated in comparison to other things we can measure......

G35 · Post #14 » by **G35** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 9:44 pm

lilroddyb wrote:Hakeem has good TS% in the playoffs for his career compared to other greats. If Hakeem is inefficient then so are the other players

here is a list of some legends in career playoffs true shooting pct
Kareem: .5709
Hakeem: .5686
Shaq: .5649
Jordan: .5676

Tim Duncan: .5482
Kobe Bryant: .5412
Kevin Garnett: .5250

I agree. When looking at some TS%'s it's surprising to that some great players rated highly are average to poor in efficiency......

Shot Clock · Post #15 » by **Shot Clock** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 9:45 pm

Ok I just have no idea why you would introduce it as an issue. Seems like you may have a left over argument from a Kobe discussion or something.

G35 · Post #16 » by **G35** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 9:59 pm

Shot Clock wrote:Ok I just have no idea why you would introduce it as an issue. Seems like you may have a left over argument from a Kobe discussion or something.

So are you saying efficiency/TS% should not be a major part of the discussion?.....

Odinn · Post #17 » by **Odinn** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 10:04 pm

I don't like the "Hakeem went up against better matchups" argument. The perception is like Duncan played against D-League caliber bigs.

If we say Hakeem's prime was 86-96 and Duncan's prime was 99-08, in those period;

Hakeem had 4 first-round exits, 1 time missed the playoffs.
Notable bigs which Hakeem played against;
K. Abdul-Jabbar 1 time
K. McHale 1 time
R. Parish 1 time
P. Ewing 1 time
S. O'Neal 1 time
D. Robinson 1 time
S. Kemp 2 times
X. McDaniel 1time
C. Barkley 2 times (although they hadn't matched-up often)

Duncan had no first-round exit - at least 2nd round (also 58W per season), never missed the playoffs.
Notable bigs which Duncan played against;
S. O'Neal 6 times
A. Stoudemire 4 times
D. Nowitzki 3 times
S. Marion 3 times
K. Martin 2 times
K. Garnett 2 times
P. Gasol 2 times
R. Wallace 2 times
B. Wallace 1 time
M. Camby 1 time
T. Chandler 1 time
D. West 1 time

Shot Clock · Post #18 » by **Shot Clock** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:19 pm

G35 wrote:
Shot Clock wrote:Ok I just have no idea why you would introduce it as an issue. Seems like you may have a left over argument from a Kobe discussion or something.

So are you saying efficiency/TS% should not be a major part of the discussion?.....

They have the same efficiency. Both players. One did it on volume and also played against superior competition and you introduce it like it's a flaw for Hakeem. Neither are amongst the truly elite scoring bigs efficiency wise. But Hakeem wasn't surrounded by the quality of players that Duncan enjoyed during his career so he is going to have to take more shots.

Shot Clock · Post #19 » by **Shot Clock** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:29 pm

Odinn wrote:I don't like the "Hakeem went up against better matchups" argument. The perception is like Duncan played against D-League caliber bigs.

If we say Hakeem's prime was 86-96 and Duncan's prime was 99-08, in those period;

Hakeem had 4 first-round exits, 1 time missed the playoffs.
Notable bigs which Hakeem played against;
K. Abdul-Jabbar 1 time
K. McHale 1 time
R. Parish 1 time
P. Ewing 1 time
S. O'Neal 1 time
D. Robinson 1 time
S. Kemp 2 times
X. McDaniel 1time
C. Barkley 2 times (although they hadn't matched-up often)

Duncan had no first-round exit - at least 2nd round (also 58W per season), never missed the playoffs.
Notable bigs which Duncan played against;
S. O'Neal 6 times
A. Stoudemire 4 times
D. Nowitzki 3 times
S. Marion 3 times
K. Martin 2 times
K. Garnett 2 times
P. Gasol 2 times
R. Wallace 2 times
B. Wallace 1 time
M. Camby 1 time
T. Chandler 1 time
D. West 1 time

Wait a minute....

Shaq? Robinson had Shaq not Tim. Duncan didn't have Shaq he was playing PF. Young Dirk was known as Irk since he had no D. Stoudemire wasn't a good defender. Garnett was a SF his first time they met. Camby? You double count guys that played on the same team.

When Duncan did

No first round exits? 2009.....

Jedi32 · Post #20 » by **Jedi32** » Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:39 pm

Odinn wrote:I don't like the "Hakeem went up against better matchups" argument. The perception is like Duncan played against D-League caliber bigs.

If we say Hakeem's prime was 86-96 and Duncan's prime was 99-08, in those period;

Hakeem had 4 first-round exits, 1 time missed the playoffs.
Notable bigs which Hakeem played against;
K. Abdul-Jabbar 1 time
K. McHale 1 time
R. Parish 1 time
P. Ewing 1 time
S. O'Neal 1 time
D. Robinson 1 time
S. Kemp 2 times
X. McDaniel 1time
C. Barkley 2 times (although they hadn't matched-up often)

Duncan had no first-round exit - at least 2nd round (also 58W per season), never missed the playoffs.
Notable bigs which Duncan played against;
S. O'Neal 6 times
A. Stoudemire 4 times
D. Nowitzki 3 times
S. Marion 3 times
K. Martin 2 times
K. Garnett 2 times
P. Gasol 2 times
R. Wallace 2 times
B. Wallace 1 time
M. Camby 1 time
T. Chandler 1 time
D. West 1 time

I thought the spurs got bounced in the first round before?