Bulls Board BAT - Playoffs (West - Round 1)

[SimonFish]

Let's vote below! Don't vote for your own team (of course), but you may state your case.

First time getting 4 votes proceed to next round.

Lemme know if the depth chart is not updated - I just directly copied and pasted from your roster page.

1. Grizzlies vs 8. Spurs

Grizzlies:
PG Lawson /Lin /McCallum/ Harris
SG Dudley /Gordon/Harris / CJ
SF Durant /C.J /Dudley / Early
PF Z Bo /Mason /Durant / Lauvergne
C Pau /Miles /Mason / Sacre
HC: Kevin McHale

Spurs (the depth chart's link is not too clear - here is what I guess):
HC: Greg Popovich
G - Kemba Walker / Jamal Crawford / Archie Goodwin
G - Russell Westbrook / Ray Allen / Wayne Ellington
F - Jeff Green / Quincy Pondexter / Andrei Kirilenko
F - Markieff Morris / James Johnson / Mo Harkless
C - Nikola Pekovic / Andray Blatche / Emeka Okafor

2. Nuggets vs 7. Mavericks

Nuggets:
HC: Doc Rivers
PG:Damian Lillard l Rajon Rondo l Nate Robinson
SG: Avery Bradley l PJ Tucker l Kent Bazemore
SF:Trevor Ariza l Wilson Chandler l Danny Granger
PF:Paul Millsap l Robert Covington l Shawn Marion
C: Hassan Whiteside l Marreese Speights l Ian Mahinmi

Mavericks:
HC: Mike Budenholzer
PG: Jose Calderon / DJ Augustin / Nick Calathes
SG: Monta Ellis / Tony Allen / James Young
SF: Corey Brewer / JR Smith / Shawne Williams
PF: Rudy Gay / Ryan Anderson / Jason Maxiell
C: Andre Drummond / Gorgui Dieng / Lucas Nogueira

3. Blazers vs 6. Rockets

Blazers (Depth Chart not available, so here is my guess):
HC: Brad Stevens
PG: Stephen Curry / Beno Udrih / Isaiah Canaan
SG: JJ Redick / Jodie Meeks / Marco Belinelli
SF: DeMarre Carroll / Kyle Singler
PF: Dirk Nowitzki / Pero Antic / Kris Humphries
C: Andrew Bogut / Jordan Hill / Aron Baynes

Rockets:
Thomas (28) / Marshall (20) /
Stuckey (28) / George (16) / Thomas (4)
George (20) / Pierce (28)
Jefferson (24) / Gibson (24)
Jordan (30) / Jefferson (12) / Ezeli (6)
HC: Jeff Van Gundy

4. Suns vs 5. Warriors

Suns:
PG - ....Jeff Teague.........//.......C.J.Watson..............//.......J.J. Barea
SG - .....Danny Green.......//.......Marcus Thornton.......//.......Jordan Adams
SF - .....Khris Middleton....//.......Mike Dunleavy Jr......//.......James Jones
PF - .....Anthony Davis......//.......Jonas Jerebko.........//.......Matt Bonner
C - ......Tiago Splitter.......//.......Alex Len.................//.......(Walter Tavares)
HC: Rick Carlisle

Warriors:
PG: Ricky Rubio/Trey Burke/Andre Miller
SG: Bradley Beal/Iman Shumpert/Jason Terry
SF: Jabari Parker/Al-Farouq Aminu/Vince Carter
PF: Blake Griffin/Tristan Thompson/Glen Davis
C: Robin Lopez/Henry Sims/Kendrick Perkins
HC: George Karl

[SimonFish]

Mavs case:

It is a very interesting matchup against the Nuggets. We have very similar roster makeup.

On this matchup, I will adopt starting lineup of:
PG: Monta
SG: Allen
SF: Brewer
PF: Gay
C: Drummond

Their best player is a PG (Lillard), and we have two excellent guard defenders in Allen and Calathes so Lillard will definitely have a hard time.

Then, their second player is Millsap, whose matchup advantage will be lost against Gay as he can defend stretch PF.

And they have no legit 3rd option on their roster (Speights? He will be eaten alive by Drummond).

As oppose to my opponents, we have multiple scoring options (Monta, Gay, JR Smith, DJ, Ryan Anderson). But at the same time we are good at defense (Drummond, Allen, Brewer, Dieng, Calathes).

And Rivers could not bring the Clippers out of the first round with CP3, BG and DAJ. Can he do anything with them with Lillard / Millsap with their only star?

Contrast with Coach Bud, who built a system suitable for his players (and my players are suitable in his system).

Ultimately, we have a much more balanced team and a better coach.

[SimonFish]

Votes:

Grizz over Spurs (star power is too strong and team is balanced.)

Blazers over Rockets (Curry, Dirk, Bogut with Carroll Redick on the wings is a balanced team).

Suns over Warriors (very close one, but the Suns have advantage at PG and PF. I think Green can contain Beal more adequately, which neutralizes one of Warrior's strength)

[ChicagoSportsFan21]

Good luck AustinCarr61! This Round 1 series will be very entertaining with 2 young and upcoming teams in the league. Our teams were the closest in terms of rankings for playoffs seeds in the West. Anthony Griffin vs Blake Griffin match-up highlighting 2 of the best power forwards in the game will be amazing. I think it will be a close series, but what I believe that will put my team into the next round is my depth/bench being stronger than his team and with that being a major difference maker. A 2nd unit of Miller/Terry/Shumpert/Aminu/Carter/Thompson/Perkins will be just too much against a 2nd unit of Barea/Watson/Dunleavy/Jerebko/Len on both sides of the floor.

[ChicagoSportsFan21]

Votes:

Grizz over Spurs (star power is too strong and team is balanced.)

Blazers over Rockets (Curry, Dirk, Bogut with Carroll Redick on the wings is a balanced team).

Suns over Warriors (very close one, but the Suns have advantage at PG and PF. I think Green can contain Beal more adequately, which neutralizes one of Warrior's strength)

The advantage of PG/PF isn't that big of a difference that will lead to a series win for the Suns in my opinion. It's also worth to note their best player in Anthony Davis has never been to the playoffs, which is a whole different animal compared to the regular season. Also, I disagree with the Beal/Green match-up, I think Beal would be able to score on Green. The 2 games Beal played against him this season in January he averaged 14 points (3/4 on 3s) on 45 percent shooting in 35 minutes. In contrast, Green averaged 10 points (3/14 on 3s-a whopping 21%) on 32 percent shooting in 35 minutes. Unlike Green being one dimensional with 3 point shooting, Beal has the ability to create/shoot from anywhere on the court. I think Beal will be just fine against Green.

[ChicagoSportsFan21]

Grizzlies vs. Spurs
Winner: Grizzlies
Reasoning: Westbrook vs Durant would be a sight to see. I think this series will be closer than some may think even though it's a 1 vs 8 series. I went with Grizzlies due to the playoff experience and having the best player on the court in Durant.

Nuggets vs Mavs
Winner: Mavs
Reasoning: I had you both as my top 2 rankings in the west so this is definitely tough one for me to predict. I have to lean towards Mavs due to his bench being a slightly stronger than Nuggets.

Trailblazers vs Rockets
Winner: Rockets
Reasoning: Trailblazers have the better back-court, but I think the Rockets have a better front-court. Jeff Van Gundy will outcoach the inexperience Brad Stevens, which would be his debut in the playoffs obviously. Thus, I'm going to have to go with the Rockets on this one.

[GimmeDat]

This is judging each team on their win-now matchup, right?

1v8. The Spurs are a talented team that are built for the future. That said, I don't think their talent fits together too well, and they're clearly lacking in defensive personelle, with Jeff Green being the only real core player that's an above average defender. Pekovic/Morris will get their own but are a big defensive liability, not just against the larger frontcourt of Z-Bo/Pau but also their inability to protect the paint against the Grizzlies prime perimeter options.

My other problem is the Spurs 3 good guards are Westbrook/Walker/Crawford, all guys best with the ball in their hands. Running Westbrook at the 2 is intriguing, but ultimately I think the abilities of these players will be mitigated playing alongside each other. It's worth noting that Westbrook has a good match-up here, though, whether at the 1 or 2. Popovich will make the Spurs a good offensive team, but ultimately, the superior talent of the Grizzlies seems destined to prevail.

GRIZZLIES > Spurs

2v7. This is a tight one. Both teams are deep and have some good talent. The Drummond/Whiteside matchup is a bit of a wash. Calderon is a respectable PG but would get abused by Lillard, unless of course the Mavs unleash Tony Allen on them. Fortunately, the Mavs roster is pretty flexible, meaning Monta can play the point, Gay can play 3 while Anderson plays 4, etc. It's hard to decide on who has the better 2nd unit, both are great. The only real mismatch I see is the Mavs not having an answer for Milsap. On the flipside, though, I'd be worried about Denver's frontcourt depth if Whiteside got in foul trouble (he does have a pretty high foul rate). Covington and Speights are both very undersized for their listed positions and a defensive liability, meanwhile Dallas has ample frontcourt scorers to exploit that.

In terms of lineups, I think I'd give the slight edge to Denver, but the HC swings the balance a bit. Mike Budenholzer is an impact addition, and I think he JUST pushes them over the line. It could honestly go either way, and Lillard will be a force.

MAVERICKS > Nuggets

3v6. Both teams with great, deep front-courts. It's honestly dead even for me, the Rockets have a bit more talent but aren't as deep, and the Blazers have lots of strong bigs to match up against them. Dirk is always a force in the postseason as well.

I see the Blazers running away when it comes to the perimeter game though. Curry is a star that Houston have no answer for (Thomas and Marshall are no stoppers). George is great in his own right, but ultimately I don't think the Rockets players mesh too well, Thomas, Stuckey and George are all on-ball players and there's not a whole lot of catch and shoot shooting going on there. Also worth noting, the Blazers are deeper and are better coached.

BLAZERS > Rockets

4v5. Another really tough decision. Warriors are a really good team, Blake is a star and will form an exciting tandem with Rubio, and Parker/Beal will thrive from Rubio's PG play as well. However, I think their depth isn't as good as it needs to be.

Suns are a talented group built around Davis, Middleton and Green are ideal role players, and Teague is a proven PG. Another team that's not very deep. I love how considered the complimentary players are though, and I think because of the offensive fit, the stronger defensive roster and the superior coach, Suns win this one.

SUNS > Warriors

[Tetlak]

The case for Houston:

Thomas (28) / Marshall (20) /
Stuckey (28) / George (16) / Thomas (4)
George (20) / Pierce (28)
Jefferson (24) / Gibson (24)
Jordan (30) / Jefferson (12) / Ezeli (6)

I can put Paul George on Curry. I can put Taj Gibson on Dirk. Then I still have Deandre Jordan roaming around and anchoring the defense. Who is guarding Thomas? Who is guarding George? Who is guarding Pierce? How will my dribble penetration or pick and roll game be stopped?

PG: Stephen Curry / Beno Udrih / Isaiah Canaan
SG: JJ Redick / Jodie Meeks / Marco Belinelli
SF: DeMarre Carroll / Kyle Singler
PF: Dirk Nowitzki / Pero Antic / Kris Humphries
C: Andrew Bogut / Jordan Hill / Aron Baynes

There is no defense on the above team aside from Bogut. The defense is in fact rather atrocious. I plan on having my squad attack Bogut early with Jefferson, who is one of the toughest covers for a big man, to get him worn down/in foul trouble, effectively breaking opening the flood gates which are already ajar. Also dont forget, none of my players will be stopped from getting to the rim, again putting Bogut in danger. Marshall has a career 38% assist rate. Thomas has a career 27% assist rate. Curry has a 32% assist rate. Is the difference really that much? Rumors of my team not passing the ball are misinformation.

Jeff Van Gundy is by far a more experienced and more playoff tested coach than Brad Stevens.

[kingkirk]

The case for Houston:

Thomas (28) / Marshall (20) /
Stuckey (28) / George (16) / Thomas (4)
George (20) / Pierce (28)
Jefferson (24) / Gibson (24)
Jordan (30) / Jefferson (12) / Ezeli (6)

I can put Paul George on Curry. I can put Taj Gibson on Dirk. Then I still have Deandre Jordan roaming around and anchoring the defense. Who is guarding Thomas? Who is guarding George? Who is guarding Pierce? How will my dribble penetration or pick and roll game be stopped?

PG: Stephen Curry / Beno Udrih / Isaiah Canaan
SG: JJ Redick / Jodie Meeks / Marco Belinelli
SF: DeMarre Carroll / Kyle Singler
PF: Dirk Nowitzki / Pero Antic / Kris Humphries
C: Andrew Bogut / Jordan Hill / Aron Baynes

There is no defense on the above team aside from Bogut. The defense is in fact rather atrocious. I plan on having my squad attack Bogut early with Jefferson, who is one of the toughest covers for a big man, to get him worn down/in foul trouble, effectively breaking opening the flood gates which are already ajar. Also dont forget, none of my players will be stopped from getting to the rim, again putting Bogut in danger. Marshall has a career 38% assist rate. Thomas has a career 27% assist rate. Curry has a 32% assist rate. Is the difference really that much? Rumors of my team not passing the ball are misinformation.

Jeff Van Gundy is by far a more experienced and more playoff tested coach than Brad Stevens.

Steph Curry, DeMarre Carroll, Andrew Bogut & Jordan Hill are all plus defenders. To say there is only one defender is not true.

Jodie Meeks, Marco Belinelli, Baynes & Humphries are also competent enough to handle their position. The only weak defenders here are Redick & Singler, but they're knock down shooters.

How do you defend the Curry/Dirk pick and roll with Redick & Carroll on the floor spacing the wings whilst Bogut is a passing hub and creator from the elbow?

[GimmeDat]

Not taking sides (though I've obviously made my opinion clear in my vote), but there's a few more things I disagree with.

You're playing George on Curry, which means you're playing Thomas/Marshall on one of his wings. George is a great defender, but guarding Curry, a quick PG? No chance. And then Portland can go big with Singler/Carroll and exploit your undersized, defensively weak PG with a major size mismatch. That's two major problems right there.

I don't think it's proven that a team soley with dribble drive/slashers can work. It is VERY hard to win without shooters on the perimeter, and Mark's team is built well to pack the paint and force you to shoot outside. Bogut is a rim-protector, he's perfect to answer your offense.

As for the Jefferson tactic, you might get Bogut in foul trouble every few games, but even then he has lots of well-sized bigs to replace him in the middle - he has a stacked front-line. Additionally, so long as you're using Jefferson, you have one of Taj or Jordan on the bench. If Jefferson is at the 5, Jordan is off, making one of your best players a non-factor and making your defense much easier to score on. If he's playing PF, Taj Gibson won't be out there to guard Dirk and instead Jefferson, one of the worst defensive bigs in the league, will be.

I'm not saying it won't be a close series, but I think Mark's team is built to play better as a team, and is built to combat your lineup very well.

[AustinCarr61]

Grizzlies win in 6 against the Spurs. Not a bad matchup for the Spurs and Westbrook will steal one game, plus Popovich versus McHale in the playoffs will be a slaughter and cost them another game, but ultimately the Grizzlies have the better #1, #2 and #3 option and talent wins out.

Nuggets in 6 against the Mavs. This matchup camouflages some of the issues I see with the Mavs (defending 2 big systems, Calderon's defense, inexperience in the frontcourt) but in the end Nuggets have more talent providing Whiteside keeps his cool.

Blazers sweep the Rockets. Jefferson chasing Dirk round the perimeter is cover your eyes bad, Bogut is still healthy in my mind, and IT and Marshall versus Curry is the biggest mismatch in the West. I'm also a big Brad Stevens fan so Rockets don't even get a bump there. Sorry PG.

In my matchup (which I won't vote on, following the classy lead of ChicagoSportsFan21)

- I think ultimately their slightly cramped spacing (only Beal a big time 3 point threat, Rubio not a shooter and both Griffin and Parker fighting for elbow touches) will allow me to pack the paint with Davis plus Len/Splitter, and make them shoot mid range jumpers.
- That plan doesn't work on the other end - I have better 3 point threats and everyone except the centers has to be guarded all the way out. I also think we can attack the rim whenever Lopez is off the floor.
- I agree that wing depth favors the Warriors, but I would say big man and PG depth favors us (Len vs Sims; Jerebko gives far better spacing than Thompson; the hot hand b/w Barea/Watson vs Burke).
- Also more playoff experience with us - Green, Splitter both title winners, Teague nearly beat the Pacers himself last year, Jones/Bonner/Barea all title winners in the locker room, whereas outside the deep bench no one from the Warriors has gone beyond Rd2.
- Close matchup but I like Carlisle to come up with enough wrinkles (nearly beat the Spurs last year with a less talented team than this) to win out

[ChicagoSportsFan21]

- I think ultimately their slightly cramped spacing (only Beal a big time 3 point threat, Rubio not a shooter and both Griffin and Parker fighting for elbow touches) will allow me to pack the paint with Davis plus Len/Splitter, and make them shoot mid range jumpers.
- That plan doesn't work on the other end - I have better 3 point threats and everyone except the centers has to be guarded all the way out. I also think we can attack the rim whenever Lopez is off the floor.
- I agree that wing depth favors the Warriors, but I would say big man and PG depth favors us (Len vs Sims; Jerebko gives far better spacing than Thompson; the hot hand b/w Barea/Watson vs Burke).
- Also more playoff experience with us - Green, Splitter both title winners, Teague nearly beat the Pacers himself last year, Jones/Bonner/Barea all title winners in the locker room, whereas outside the deep bench no one from the Warriors has gone beyond Rd2.
- Close matchup but I like Carlisle to come up with enough wrinkles (nearly beat the Spurs last year with a less talented team than this) to win out

-Beal/Parker both have the ability to create their own shot and pull up from mid-range to make a shot successfully more often than not if the paint is pack. Griffin can hit from mid-range successfully too. With the excellent vision/passing of Rubio, he will find one of them to take a high percentage shot.
-You do have a better 3 point threats for starters, but I think Parker/Beal will be able to defend Middleton/Danny Green successfully. Look at previous posts to see how Beal was more successful than Green during their 2 games this year.
-As noted from my playoff write-up, Sims and Burke will not be playing during the playoffs. I would definitely take Perkins over Len come playoff time as he bullies him up inside. Also, Terry/Miller are better options than Barea/Watson come playoff time especially offensively. I can counter the spacing with putting Big Baby Davis when Jerebko if spacing is an issue.
-I disagree with the playoffs experience statement. Terry has won a title if you consider him outside the deep bench so that refutes your point of no players beyond Round 2.
-Carlisle is a champion, so I'll give you that, but Karl is no slouch either-took a team to the finals, one of the all time winningest coaches in the NBA.

[Context]

[quote="SimonFish"]Mavs case:

It is a very interesting matchup against the Nuggets. We have very similar roster makeup.

On this matchup, I will adopt starting lineup of:
PG: Monta
SG: Allen
SF: Brewer
PF: Gay
C: Drummond

Their best player is a PG (Lillard)
what does that mean? this league is GUARD driven. I think you better take a look at where Lillard falls on the leaders list on this site.
Lillard is among the top 20 in the entire league on over 24 lists...
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... aders.html

This "Point guard" last time I checked was 2nd in 4th quarter points. Not to mention he has the support of TWO champions - one point guard in Rondo on the court and Rivers as his coach. You can talk about your coach all you want. He is still Green and hasn't won ONE play-off game as a head coach.

and we have two excellent guard defenders in Allen and Calathes so Lillard will definitely have a hard time.
I think you better check the head to head match-up... Allen doesn't start and definitely won't be playing Lillard for 40 minutes.
And for the love of god please dont mention "calathes". Rondo will run circles around him...

Simon, I love you bro but you are reeeeeeaching....

Then, their second player is Millsap, whose matchup advantage will be lost against Gay as he can defend stretch PF.

Have you seen how many SF I have? I'm a matchup NIGHTMARE. you are going to start a bench player in Brewer so you can put Gay at the four? (sounds like you're creating a weakness at SF) and just take a look at how many SF I have that START in this league and ask yourself what you think i'm going to do?

And they have no legit 3rd option on their roster (Speights? He will be eaten alive by Drummond).

We have elite defenders. A boatload of them and guys who can shoot 3's. You will need to concern yourself with Lillard, Whiteside,
Millsap because you can't double team Lillard. For that matter, you can't double team any of my players... Drummond is a rebounding and block machine and that's where it stops. He can't stop my elite three point group when lillard drives and dishes from nailing those threes.

You must put everything in context. You must look at the way my/a team is built. You can't make a generic "he doesnt have a third option" statement...PJ Tucker can and has shut down a guy like Harden. Avery, Rondo, Milsap, Whiteside, Ian, Ariza... You are not scoring against us

As oppose to my opponents, we have multiple scoring options (Monta, Gay, JR Smith, DJ, Ryan Anderson). But at the same time we are good at defense (Drummond, Allen, Brewer, Dieng, Calathes).

Smith destroyed the knicks playoffs in one play. Calathes who? what has he done? and please tell me when Ryan has been healthy consistently...

And Rivers could not bring the Clippers out of the first round with CP3, BG and DAJ. Can he do anything with them with Lillard / Millsap with their only star?

Rivers is a champion. Talk to me when Mike wins ONE player-off game as a head coach...

Contrast with Coach Bud, who built a system suitable for his players (and my players are suitable in his system).

Ultimately, we have a much more balanced team and a better coach.

you call starting TWO bench players and a coach who hasn't won ONE playoff game as a head coach more balanced and better?

[GimmeDat]

I'm gonna post my opinion in a sec but can I just add my 2 cents, I don't think it sets a good precedence to have guys rebutting each others 'claims' and getting into disagreements. State your case, let people decide for themselves.

[Context]

I'm gonna post my opinion in a sec but can I just add my 2 cents, I don't think it sets a good precedence to have guys rebutting each others 'claims' and getting into disagreements. State your case, let people decide for themselves.

honestly- i think we need to put this opening post on the general board and let them decide because there is too much bias going on...

[Brybeck01]

I'm gonna post my opinion in a sec but can I just add my 2 cents, I don't think it sets a good precedence to have guys rebutting each others 'claims' and getting into disagreements. State your case, let people decide for themselves.

honestly- i think we need to put this opening post on the general board and let them decide because there is too much bias going on...

I don't think there is any bias here. We didn't even list GM's names and I've got a short memory. I'll be voting on rosters, coach, team write ups, and my own knowledge.


1. Grizzlies vs 8. Spurs - my matchup, so I won’t be voting. But wanted to point out Early and Sacre were released in order to leave room for draft rights to Tomas and Bertans. Adjusting for playoff rotation. No major adjustments needed, though CJ and Dudley may get more burn guarding Westbrook. I’d also switch Durant on him on occasion. Would really be a site to see Westbrook v Durant!

Grizzlies:
HC: Kevin McHale

PG Lawson (34) /Lin (14)
SG Dudley (20) /Gordon (28)
SF Durant(36) /C.J (12)/Dudley
PF Z Bo (33)/Mason (15)/Durant
C Pau (33)/Mason (5)/Miles (10)
reserve bench: McCalum, Harris, Lauvergne

Spurs (the depth chart's link is not too clear - here is what I guess):
HC: Greg Popovich
G - Kemba Walker / Jamal Crawford / Archie Goodwin
G - Russell Westbrook / Ray Allen / Wayne Ellington
F - Jeff Green / Quincy Pondexter / Andrei Kirilenko
F - Markieff Morris / James Johnson / Mo Harkless
C - Nikola Pekovic / Andray Blatche / Emeka Okafor

slammed at work, I’ll come back and write more on the why, but it’s a clean sweep of favorites for me.

2. Nuggets over 7. Mavericks

3. Blazers over 6. Rockets

4. Suns over 5. Warriors

[mattyj912]

top seeds all the way through

[ChicagoSportsFan21]

I'm surprised at how owners are overlooking my depth/bench. I think the starters are a wash, but the bench is where there is a difference.

PG: Miller/Terry>Watson/Barea
SG: Shumpert>Thornton
SF: Aminu/Carter>Dunleavy/Jones
PF: Thompson/Davis>Jerebko
C: Perkins/Thompson>Len

Offensively and defensively my bench is much better.

[frosty23]

Grizz, Nuggets, Blazers, Suns

[Context]

Grizz, Nuggets, Blazers, Suns

an unbiased opinion