How well will Charlotte shoot threes this season?

Post #1 » by **JDR720** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 2:47 am

We added quite a few shooters this offseason including.

Lin- 36.9% (career 34.9%)
Nic- 32.4% (career 36.3%)
Lamb- 34.2% (career 34.8%)
Haees- 31.3% (career 35.1%)
Frank- 40% in college

of the guys already on the team we have

Kemba- 30.4% (career 31.8%)
Daniels- 36.4% (career 38.5%)
PJ- 30.1% as rookie
Brian-32.1% (career 35.3%
Marvin- 35.8% (career 34%)
and Cody will shoot threes this season

last season we were last in 3pt% and in 3pt made per game we were 26th, where will we end up this season?

Braggins · Post #2 » by **Braggins** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 2:56 am

15th in 3pt% and 10th in attempts.

Mystical Apples · Post #3 » by **Mystical Apples** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 3:14 am

Good question. Even with MKG I would have said top 12 in attempts but now maybe top 5. Average a lot tougher to guess and it depends on how much Marvin and Frank play, or Al for that matter. I did notice Detroit and the Pelicans were bombing away so looks like theyre going to nudge closer to Rockets territory

Ill go with 6th in attempts and 17th in %.

HornetJail · Post #4 » by **HornetJail** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 3:15 am

My guess is that Kemba, Frank, Lamb, Batum, and Lin will all shoot at least 3 3PA per game (maybe less for Frank if he doesn't play a lot) and make at least 35% of their shots. Daniels will shoot 40% if he's given minutes. My guess is that Zeller will shoot roughly 1 3PA a game and shoot ~30%.

Bold prediction: Al Jefferson will make 10 3s and we will finish in the top half of the league in 3PA, 3PM, and 3P%.

spaceballer · Post #5 » by **spaceballer** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 3:26 am

It's hard to say, because you can't use last year as a barometer. And by that, I don't just mean last year's Hornets, but last year's NBA as well. EVERY team is bombing away and practicing three's this training camp. That means the league average from last season can't be used to predict this season's league average.

So even if the Hornets are better at and taking more three's, you still have to consider that virtually EVERY team will be doing the same. So the league average will jump up from last year's numbers.

It's a copycat league. And GSW just won with their shooting.

Post #6 » by **yosemiteben** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 3:34 am

I bet Batum and Lamb average at last 5 3PTAs per game. Batum's career average is 4.3.

I'm not gonna act like I think it's the best idea in the world or that I necessarily endorse it, but I think if PJ gets steady PT and plays in an offense that has good ball movement and encourages him to take open threes, the potential is there for really come into his own. I'm really curious what he'll look like if he is a meaningful part of our rotation.

RollingWave · Post #7 » by **RollingWave** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 3:47 am

They'll at least throw it up a lot more, which helps.

If they throw it up at the rate of last 2 game, they'll be #2 in 3PA (for last year, but that probably go up again this year.)

Mystical Apples · Post #8 » by **Mystical Apples** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 3:55 am

Some teams will continue shooting at a heavy rate but most won't be once the season starts and guys are cut. The Hornets are practically crawling compared to other teams in preseason who are playing at exhibition pace.

Hornets are at 96.5 which is 1 possession more than last year while taking 30 threes. The other teams are running second and third units at paces higher than GSW last year.

Mystical Apples · Post #9 » by **Mystical Apples** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 4:06 am

Pace adjusted the Hornets are really close to what the Rockets shot last year and 4 more than anyone else including GSW. Getting up 50% more attempts on the same pace is significant. They may dip but if it's below 6th in total attempts I'd be surprised

InProblematique · Post #10 » by **InProblematique** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 4:35 am

A big part of the reason a lot of our guys didn't shoot well the past couple of seasons was simply because we dedicated so many offensive schemes to the paint, or cuts around mid-range. That's understandable, as a lot of our guys simply couldn't shoot threes.

With the acquisitions we now have, we're going to be playing three-out minimum, and there will be line-ups where we can put all five guys out on the perimeter. I don't think that'll happen, but having depth at every position that allows us to go three-deep minimum is a huge deal.

Last season's starting line up was: Kemba, Hendo/Lance, MKG, Zeller, Al. Obviously there were differences based off injuries, but that was basically what it was. In that line-up, Kemba was the only guy who would attempt to shoot a three if he was open, and could make it. Hendo could make some threes, but he usually did some bull dribble penetration before settling on a contested 16-footer. MKG, Zeller, and Al didn't even try, nor should they have.

This year, we're looking at a line-up that will feature Kemba, Batum, and Al, and one of either Lin or Batum and Zeller or Williams. Let's just say we go with Kemba, Lamb, Batum, Zeller, Al.

That's four players who can make open threes. Zeller has shown that he's prepared to take the threes, so I expect he'll be taking the spot-ups in the regular season instead of passing it when he's wide open. He's obviously much more comfortable and much more capable of making those shots. Batum has always been able to make open threes, and he can put it up even if he's contested. Lamb can make open threes pretty consistently, but his ability to hit contested threes hasn't really been tested yet; that's because teams would shift an extra defender to Westbrook or Durant, quite often leaving Lamb open. I'm quite sure he's a very good shooter who can hit threes even with decent contest.

Getting into our bench, Lin has improved SIGNIFICANTLY since his first year on the perimeter to the point where he's actually a very good shooter. Williams was our best three point shooter last year. Kaminsky was lights out in college, and he's looked pretty damn good early on. Hawes has always been good from range. Daniels is actually probably our best pure shooter, and with MKG going down, forcing Batum to play more SF, I'm quite positive he'll get more time at SG. That's good, because he's pretty amazing at shooting, just not good at anything else. Hairston is *supposed* to be good, but meh. He mostly sucks.

The point here is that we have shooting at every position. We're going to shoot and make a lot of threes this year. I believe Clifford has basically been given a mandate to take more threes, and I believe even if he wasn't given a mandate, these guys would be shooting more threes regularly. The thing is, the players on our team can actually make them.

I think we're going to see a very, very good three point year that very few people will expect.

Snidely FC · Post #11 » by **Snidely FC** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 12:01 pm

yosemiteben wrote:I bet Batum and Lamb average at last 5 3PTAs per game. Batum's career average is 4.3.

I'm not gonna act like I think it's the best idea in the world or that I necessarily endorse it, but I think if PJ gets steady PT and plays in an offense that has good ball movement and encourages him to take open threes, the potential is there for really come into his own. I'm really curious what he'll look like if he is a meaningful part of our rotation.

I am too. Very few shooters step into this league in year one and light it up. Look at Doug McDermott for instance, he shot 31% from 3 last year. Many of these guys take off in year 3 (watch Otto Porter this year). More playing time helps a lot, so that the game slows down for them. At 6'6 PJ has the physical tools. He shot 86% from the FT line last year, often a good barometer of 3 pt %. Though, I would much rather see him at SG than SF.

Hornet Mania · Post #12 » by **Hornet Mania** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 1:16 pm

Probably about league average in percentage, which would be a huge improvement from last year. I expect a ton of attempts at the very least, seems like it is a point of emphasis for everyone from the coaching staff to the players.

DY_nasty · Post #13 » by **DY_nasty** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 1:35 pm

Anything better than one of the worst shooting teams of the last 20 years is a positive. We don't even need to hit the league average. We just won't be completely atrocious and inept anymore. That's a massive positive in itself... actually being guarded outside of 18 feet.

But we'll probably be streaky as hell if compared to other teams this year. Meh.

euphorbus · Post #14 » by **euphorbus** » Wed Oct 7, 2015 6:57 pm

DY_nasty wrote:But we'll probably be streaky as hell if compared to other teams this year.

That's why it is important for the coach to go with the hot hand in a game or in a series of games. The team potentially has some decent three-point shooters, including backups Hawes, Roberts, and Daniels, so there is opportunity for greater success in this department. I am not a big fan of throwing up 30 three-pointers per night during the regular season, though. A good inside-outside game would be better over the long term. The team shot 31 against Orlando and 29 against Miami.

DY_nasty · Post #15 » by **DY_nasty** » Thu Oct 8, 2015 7:35 am

euphorbus wrote:
DY_nasty wrote:But we'll probably be streaky as hell if compared to other teams this year.

That's why it is important for the coach to go with the hot hand in a game or in a series of games. The team potentially has some decent three-point shooters, including backups Hawes, Roberts, and Daniels, so there is opportunity for greater success in this department. I am not a big fan of throwing up 30 three-pointers per night during the regular season, though. A good inside-outside game would be better over the long term. The team shot 31 against Orlando and 29 against Miami.

Cliff never goes with the hot hand.

GoBobs · Post #16 » by **GoBobs** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 5:14 am

I expect we will be 21st in attempts and last in %. There is just no one on that roster I believe in to go out there and fill it up. The only player that will be above average for sure is Marvin Williams and his defense will suck while he gives us slightly over one three per game. Frank is a rookie and so it is still hard to know what we will get from him. Batum averages 1.6 made 3s per game so he is like a slightly better Marvin Williams.

euphorbus · Post #17 » by **euphorbus** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 11:28 am

DY_nasty wrote:Cliff never goes with the hot hand.

An experienced point guard can feed the guy with a hot hand, so long as they are on the court together. I have not seen that kind of selflessness from Kemba Walker yet, and he is still pretty young.

DY_nasty · Post #18 » by **DY_nasty** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 4:45 pm

euphorbus wrote:
DY_nasty wrote:Cliff never goes with the hot hand.

An experienced point guard can feed the guy with a hot hand, so long as they are on the court together. I have not seen that kind of selflessness from Kemba Walker yet, and he is still pretty young.

I think that's vastly over-simplifying our shooting problems...

It also doesn't have anything to do with Clifford's static substitutions.

EwingSweatsALot · Post #19 » by **EwingSweatsALot** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 7:11 pm

I assume we will be in the top 8 in attempts, and just below league average in %.

spaceballer · Post #20 » by **spaceballer** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 10:54 pm

I think much will depend on how they're getting the threes. Are they chucking up contested threes just for the heck of it? Or are they getting nice easy uncontested threes due to penetration and passing to the open man? Or running plays to screen perimeter players for open shots? You may have the shooters, but you still need a system that gets them good shots.