2016 Draft Thread

[fishercob]

Ruz, Sev, doc, Dat, CCJ, et al....

Have at it.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I have just one wish...

Someone other than EG makes our pick.

[pcbothwel]

All, I need some help with this. I know I am a UNC fan so i try to take off my homer glasses, but why do I keep seeing Brice Johnson ranked as a 2nd rounder?

Seriously, the guy is 6'11, 225-230lb PF that runs like a gazelle and has amazing quick twitch jumping ability (more important than max vertical). He continues to show expanding range on his jump shot and I see him becoming a lot like Ibaka over the next 3-4 years.

His FTA, FT%, eFG%, TS, PER, TRB%, and WS have all increased year over year and he has started off this year amazingly. He is a 4-year senior and I'd love to grab him around #20-22. So what am I missing?

SEE BELOW:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/brice-johnson-1.html

[TheSecretWeapon]

All, I need some help with this. I know I am a UNC fan so i try to take off my homer glasses, but why do I keep seeing Brice Johnson ranked as a 2nd rounder?

Seriously, the guy is 6'11, 225-230lb PF that runs like a gazelle and has amazing quick twitch jumping ability (more important than max vertical). He continues to show expanding range on his jump shot and I see him becoming a lot like Ibaka over the next 3-4 years.

His FTA, FT%, eFG%, TS, PER, TRB%, and WS have all increased year over year and he has started off this year amazingly. He is a 4-year senior and I'd love to grab him around #20-22. So what am I missing?

SEE BELOW:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/brice-johnson-1.html

I just ran him through YODA, and...if he'd been in the 2015 draft, I'd have had him rated as a late 1st/early 2nd rounder. A bit higher than DX has him, but not a lot higher.

When I look into the stats that comprise the overall score in YODA, I note that he's not a 3pt shooter at all and that his 2pt% is decent, but not outstanding. He rebounds well, but doesn't have many blocks (or steals) for someone with his reputed length and athleticism. Very low assist numbers, especially in relation to his turnovers. And he fouls a TON.

In looking at the numbers, it would seem he has potential and physical ability, but needs to improve to be considered a quality NBA prospect.

[Ruzious]

YODA sounds about right to me. Johnson and Meeks are a great combo at the college level. Smart move by Johnson to stay in school and develop more skeeils - not to mention being big man on campus and have some success. Pcb, what kind of shape is Meeks in? I like him - as a more skilled version of DeJuan Blair - with 2 functioning ACL's, presumably. He's not an explosive athuhlete, but if he's in shape, I think he can play in the NBA - still just 20 years old.

[Dark Faze]

Barring a trade before the deadline, I'd say our most immediate need is at center. We need to develop someone to be able to take the reigns from Gortat when he begins to slow down.

Good thing is right now this is a pretty big man heavy draft at the moment and there are a number of teams--Boston, Phoenix, Toronto, Charlotte, Sacramento, New Orleans, and Philly...who don't have much of a need for a center at the moment. We should be in a great position to grab a nice big man.

[Ruzious]

Barring a trade before the deadline, I'd say our most immediate need is at center. We need to develop someone to be able to take the reigns from Gortat when he begins to slow down.

Good thing is right now this is a pretty big man heavy draft at the moment and there are a number of teams--Boston, Phoenix, Toronto, Charlotte, Sacramento, New Orleans, and Philly...who don't have much of a need for a center at the moment. We should be in a great position to grab a nice big man.

I'm too early with this speculation, but I'm hoping the big kid from Utah - Poeltl - drops to the Wiz. More realistically, I like the 3rd wheel up front from Wisconsin's great team last season - Nigel Hayes. His skills are still raw, but he reminds me of a slightly bigger version of Demarre Carroll. He's long enough to play the stretch 4 in the NBA - but he's got to show he can rebound. With Kaminsky and Dekker there, he didn't need to rebound much. He can switch between the 3 and 4 depending on what you need. I like his potential more than Dekker's.

[Dark Faze]

To expand upon what I said earlier-- there are 7 guys ranked in the top 15 of nbadraft.net that are 6'11 or above, and quite a few others of said height projected to go in the lottery atm. If we want a center, we'd have to work really hard not to get one in this draft.

Regarding Hayes--this will be a good year to see what he can do with a huge spike in his usage, but it would take a lot for me to take him over a center.

[pcbothwel]

YODA sounds about right to me. Johnson and Meeks are a great combo at the college level. Smart move by Johnson to stay in school and develop more skeeils - not to mention being big man on campus and have some success. Pcb, what kind of shape is Meeks in? I like him - as a more skilled version of DeJuan Blair - with 2 functioning ACL's, presumably. He's not an explosive athuhlete, but if he's in shape, I think he can play in the NBA - still just 20 years old.

Ruz, I really like Meeks and he is the type of backup C that the Spurs would draft.
He has an extremely high BB IQ, great hands, great passer, dominant rebounder.
His 50lb wiehgt loss (320-270) has actually resulted in improvements as he gets down the floor much faster and looks more explosive.

He is 6'10 in shoes and only a 7 foot wingspan, so he has trouble finishing at the rim. He reminds of Sean May in some ways, but he is better in three important ways:
1) He is a better scorer
2) He is a better rebounder
3) He is more dedicated to Basketball and keeping in shape.

[Ruzious]

YODA sounds about right to me. Johnson and Meeks are a great combo at the college level. Smart move by Johnson to stay in school and develop more skeeils - not to mention being big man on campus and have some success. Pcb, what kind of shape is Meeks in? I like him - as a more skilled version of DeJuan Blair - with 2 functioning ACL's, presumably. He's not an explosive athuhlete, but if he's in shape, I think he can play in the NBA - still just 20 years old.

Ruz, I really like Meeks and he is the type of backup C that the Spurs would draft.
He has an extremely high BB IQ, great hands, great passer, dominant rebounder.
His 50lb wiehgt loss (320-270) has actually resulted in improvements as he gets down the floor much faster and looks more explosive.

He is 6'10 in shoes and only a 7 foot wingspan, so he has trouble finishing at the rim. He reminds of Sean May in some ways, but he is better in three important ways:
1) He is a better scorer
2) He is a better rebounder
3) He is more dedicated to Basketball and keeping in shape.

Yeah, Sean May was in that mold. With better knees and better conditioning, May could have had a nice NBA career. Good to hear that Meeks is doing well - except when UNC plays MD in the final 4.

[Dark Faze]

I think we're also reaching a point where Alex Len might be had at a moderate if not cheap price. The Chandler signing was very telling. He could be the perfect option for us as a guy we don't need to start for a couple of years.

Maybe our first this year alone could do it.

[thricethefun]

I think we're also reaching a point where Alex Len might be had at a moderate if not cheap price. The Chandler signing was very telling. He could be the perfect option for us as a guy we don't need to start for a couple of years.

Maybe our first this year alone could do it.

We'd have to pay him next summer though

[closg00]

In DX's latest mock, Melo Trimble is at 36, if that is where is at perhaps MD can get another year from him. Stone is 10th and Layman is in the 20's.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

What do you all think of Malcolm Brogden's prospects?

He is one of the smoothest, smartest college basketball players I've ever seen. I'm just not completely sure his game translates to the next level.

[Ruzious]

What do you all think of Malcolm Brogden's prospects?

He is one of the smoothest, smartest college basketball players I've ever seen. I'm just not completely sure his game translates to the next level.

I love the way he plays at the college level. He's got some great defensive instincts as well as a high BBIQ on offense. But that's the questions - does his game translate given that he's not what people would call a good NBA athlete? He could be in the Afflalo mold as an NBA player if he's given a chance. Call me crazy... but I think Mike Tobey could also play in the NBA if someone gives him a shot and he lowers his fouling problem - though Brogden's odds are better.

Looking at a couple of the HS All-American bigs - a couple of early disappointments imo. Diamond Stone has a ton of work to do. And Skal _____ from KY looked like he's got to get a LOT stronger. Yes, Anthony Davis was also skinny when he came to KY, but so far, I'm not getting that Skal is going to be like Davis. He's preseason ranked #1 by draftexpress.com, so I was expecting more. At this point, I think he's an NBA PF prospect more than a center prospect.

[krii]

How would YODA classify big 3 from Gonzaga?

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/kyle-wiltjer-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/domantas-sabonis-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/przemek-karnowski-1.html

All of them are completely different players, all of them will be probably drafted this year.

Domantas Sabonis is The Deal, his latest nicknames (Dontmiss Sabonis & The Bonus) describes him the best. Last season he was a beast in post but in the first games this season and during Eurobasket he added a lot of shooting skills. He can cut, he can finish, he is a rebounding beast. Well just watch this: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Domantas-Sabonis-62889/
The only thing that sucks is that we will probably be top 10 picks (DE have him around 20-25th spot so there's a chance). It might be great to try any sort of trades to get him as IMO he would be perfect behind Gortat for 1-2 years to absolutely kick ass later. He can play both PF and C positions.

Kyle Wiltjer is one of the biggest names in NCAA this season. Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNNGdkfWARk . He can shoot from every position (.540% last season with .466 from 3), great rebounder. IMO fantastic option for stretch 4 especially as most of the mocks give him 2nd round. He could easily be one of the best shooters in this draft (if not the best).

The least popular is Przemek Karnowski, basically Gortat 2.0. 7"1', a little bit like Marc Gasol back in college. The best thing about him is that he plays monster games against better opponents (like against Pau Gasol on Eurobasket and basically every single competition against any good big in NCAA last season), well ... usually he is dominating them (Okafor, Kaminsky). He will be probably 2nd rounder but worth to look at. Check his game against UCLA (sort of this game he likes to play in - if there is any rivalry, dominant big in opposing team like Gasol or Okafor, he tends to look like a star).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMBM7u8LYl8&list=PLReQtA7H_T5qcF9tpba9-EHfEUQopwTqR

[Ruzious]

How would YODA classify big 3 from Gonzaga?

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/kyle-wiltjer-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/domantas-sabonis-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/przemek-karnowski-1.html

All of them are completely different players, all of them will be probably drafted this year.

Domantas Sabonis is The Deal, his latest nicknames (Dontmiss Sabonis & The Bonus) describes him the best. Last season he was a beast in post but in the first games this season and during Eurobasket he added a lot of shooting skills. He can cut, he can finish, he is a rebounding beast. Well just watch this: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Domantas-Sabonis-62889/
The only thing that sucks is that we will probably be top 10 picks (DE have him around 20-25th spot so there's a chance). It might be great to try any sort of trades to get him as IMO he would be perfect behind Gortat for 1-2 years to absolutely kick ass later. He can play both PF and C positions.

Kyle Wiltjer is one of the biggest names in NCAA this season. Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNNGdkfWARk . He can shoot from every position (.540% last season with .466 from 3), great rebounder. IMO fantastic option for stretch 4 especially as most of the mocks give him 2nd round. He could easily be one of the best shooters in this draft (if not the best).

The least popular is Przemek Karnowski, basically Gortat 2.0. 7"1', a little bit like Marc Gasol back in college. The best thing about him is that he plays monster games against better opponents (like against Pau Gasol on Eurobasket and basically every single competition against any good big in NCAA last season), well ... usually he is dominating them (Okafor, Kaminsky). He will be probably 2nd rounder but worth to look at. Check his game against UCLA (sort of this game he likes to play in - if there is any rivalry, dominant big in opposing team like Gasol or Okafor, he tends to look like a star).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMBM7u8LYl8&list=PLReQtA7H_T5qcF9tpba9-EHfEUQopwTqR

I'd feel a lot better about Sabonis if he showed some range on his shot. Keep in mind that he's advanced because he played against quality competition in Europe as a teenager. I just don't know if his game translates real well to the NBA. Even though he's listed at a good weight, he has narrow shoulders and doesn't have the great frame Arvidas Sabonis had.

That same issue - will their game translate to the NBA? - applies to both Wiltjer and Karnowski - due to their perceived physical limitations. It seems like both have been around a long time, so they should have good stats - they're not kids.

[Ruzious]

To expand upon what I said earlier-- there are 7 guys ranked in the top 15 of nbadraft.net that are 6'11 or above, and quite a few others of said height projected to go in the lottery atm. If we want a center, we'd have to work really hard not to get one in this draft.

Regarding Hayes--this will be a good year to see what he can do with a huge spike in his usage, but it would take a lot for me to take him over a center.

A lot of the tall prospects are raw and have issues. I don't have the same confidence in them that you do - at least so far.

[krii]

How would YODA classify big 3 from Gonzaga?

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/kyle-wiltjer-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/domantas-sabonis-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/przemek-karnowski-1.html

All of them are completely different players, all of them will be probably drafted this year.

Domantas Sabonis is The Deal, his latest nicknames (Dontmiss Sabonis & The Bonus) describes him the best. Last season he was a beast in post but in the first games this season and during Eurobasket he added a lot of shooting skills. He can cut, he can finish, he is a rebounding beast. Well just watch this: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Domantas-Sabonis-62889/
The only thing that sucks is that we will probably be top 10 picks (DE have him around 20-25th spot so there's a chance). It might be great to try any sort of trades to get him as IMO he would be perfect behind Gortat for 1-2 years to absolutely kick ass later. He can play both PF and C positions.

Kyle Wiltjer is one of the biggest names in NCAA this season. Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNNGdkfWARk . He can shoot from every position (.540% last season with .466 from 3), great rebounder. IMO fantastic option for stretch 4 especially as most of the mocks give him 2nd round. He could easily be one of the best shooters in this draft (if not the best).

The least popular is Przemek Karnowski, basically Gortat 2.0. 7"1', a little bit like Marc Gasol back in college. The best thing about him is that he plays monster games against better opponents (like against Pau Gasol on Eurobasket and basically every single competition against any good big in NCAA last season), well ... usually he is dominating them (Okafor, Kaminsky). He will be probably 2nd rounder but worth to look at. Check his game against UCLA (sort of this game he likes to play in - if there is any rivalry, dominant big in opposing team like Gasol or Okafor, he tends to look like a star).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMBM7u8LYl8&list=PLReQtA7H_T5qcF9tpba9-EHfEUQopwTqR

I'd feel a lot better about Sabonis if he showed some range on his shot. Keep in mind that he's advanced because he played against quality competition in Europe as a teenager. I just don't know if his game translates real well to the NBA. Even though he's listed at a good weight, he has narrow shoulders and doesn't have the great frame Arvidas Sabonis had.

That same issue - will their game translate to the NBA? - applies to both Wiltjer and Karnowski - due to their perceived physical limitations. It seems like both have been around a long time, so they should have good stats - they're not kids.

It is just two games so far (tomorrow they're playing another one) but he had some range in those games (even fantastic 3 ball that was cancelled, I believe). In Eurobasket he was shooting well, same in this u-20 tournament. I believe it was a Gonzaga scheme that was not using his ability to shoot from mid-range. And his physicality ... I was worried about the same but it looks like he can play against bigger opponents and it's just a matter of time when he will be stronger. He is just 19 years old and he is white, it takes some time to build up. He is not, nor will be a type of bulky player (same as Wiltjer) but he can add some muscles in two years. That is why I feel he can be prototype of 4/5 who can shoot and post up without problems.

Witlejr has some problems with defense - I don't know if he is enough physical to play against 4s in the NBA. I feel he can be a great role player though - his defense is not that bad and his offensive tools are out of this world.

I don't see how Karnowski's physicality isn't transferable to NBA though? He went from this: to this
In about 2 years. Same story as Marc Gasol - he was fat in college but with years he became a real monster. His vertical might not be that impressive but he is relatively good rebounder (about 10 per 40?), great finisher and passer (remember that pass to Sabonis during March Madness?).

Of course Wiltjer and Karnowski have been around for 3 years and they play like professionals. They are seniors that was quite the same situation with Olynyk and he translated into really good NBA player.

[Ruzious]

Karnowski might want to get pants that aren't quite so tight, but his improved grooming skills might translate. He's definitely strong enough. It's his mobility and ability to get up and down court in today's faster-paced NBA that I question. Age is a bigger issue with Wiltjer - seeing as he will be 24 starting his rookie year. Both Karnowski and Wiltjer deserve long looks by the NBA, but I'm guessing now that Sabonis is the only one of them that gets drafted.