A Nightmare on Beale Street

[SD2042]

The Grizzlies as of today sit at 13-12 after a crucial and mistake filled fourth quarter loss to the Miami Heat 100-97. The Grizzlies have struggled out of the gate twenty-five games into the season. For a playoff team, who has played together for the majority of five seasons in-spite of a coaching change and new ownership, this team once defined resilience and tenacity to overcome the odds. Hence the "Grit-N-Grind" that spelled who the Grizzlies are as an identity.

This season, the Grizzlies have looked like a shell of themselves. The currently owned a 7-6 home record, 6-6 road record, 7-8 record vs. Playoff teams from last season(Warriors and Spurs twice). So what are the likely issues that has plagued the Grizzlies?

Most common issues amongst Grizzlies fans

Chemistry
Coach
Management
Acquisitions
Adapt to Euroball style
3% point shooting
Age/Longevity
Go-to scorer/Keys to the Future



Has the chemistry with this team has gotten so comfortable with each other that the motivation to challenge themselves has started to disappear into thin air? Remember that Tony Allen stated in Friday's loss to Charlotte that the Grit-N-Grind identity appears to had faded. If that's the case, how do a team recover from an identity crisis, let alone overcome the issues of struggling to adhere to the team concept.

Which leads to coaching. Has the team tuned out Dave Joerger? Has his substitution patterns and the fact that he has spoken publically that the Grizzlies have gotten "old" is turning the players against him and perhaps Grizzlies management? The blame could be place on GM Chris Wallace and the GM staff for their lack attracting better talent to help bolster the Grizzlies roster in hopes to compete in the gauntlet of the Western Conference?

This could be the case as well. As we seen in the offseason, the Grizzlies acquired PF/C Brendan Wright, SF Matt Barnes, and rookie PF Jarrell Martin to bolster their roster and recently added SG/PG Mario Chalmers from the Heat. In-spite of the transactions, the Grizzlies relativity stayed the same in hopes to not disturb the chemistry and perhaps withstand the change of the Euroball style that's steadily changing the league as of late.


The Grizzlies as a team are not equipped to the Euroball scheme due to the half court schemes they play about the team. The lack of better shooters and go to scorers has been a detriment of the Grizzlies for several seasons. They managed to stay in the bottom ten ranked teams(29th) who shoot a worse percentage from beyond the arc(30.8%). Small ball lineups could become the new style of play in the NBA within the next three years. The Warriors proved the theory back in May during the Western Semi-Finals runs which saw the Warriors defeated the Grizzlies 4-2 utilizing the small ball technique to draw the Grizzlies big men out to the perimeter and made the Grizzlies play their game. Given The Grizzlies history of not being a good three point shooting team, the series was ultimately decided based on that history pattern alone.

Age and longevity has started to creep in on the Grizzlies. The funny thing with numbers is that numbers don't tell you the entire story. For instance, the average age for this Grizzlies roster is 28.6 years old. It doesn't sound like a bad number at first. What the numbers don't reveal to the naked eye is that who has age in key positions on the roster. Am I saying those who have aged in key positions are the direct problem to the Grizzlies struggles, not entirely. Remember a team in West Texas known as the San Antonio Spurs, the team the media hates to see win titles? See the Spurs are the masters of upgrading talent by precisely breaking down the player's style of play and mesh said player's talents to their scheme of things. The Grizzlies for as good as they been in the last several years have not fair as well this season against the stiff competition of the Western Conference(currently 9-8) and 4-2 in the Southwest Division.

Lastly, the keys of the future is in question. The Grizzlies are turning the keys of the future over to Mike Conley and Marc Gasol for the sake of the future. With Zach Randolph aging and not able to produce as well as he has earlier in his career. This move was the likeliest one the Grizzlies would make. On paper, it makes sense. Both players produce solid stats that profiled and identify with players of a young age that teams are likely to turn to when your veteran began to age out of the prominent role as the main clutch player. Now remember when I stated earlier that numbers don't tell you the entire story? Here's the other side of the story. As good of stats both Conley and Gasol produce on game nights, both players fit the profile of complimentary players. Players who add more incentive and take pressure off your main player. Riddle me this Batman: Who stands out the most as the Grizzlies main clutch player?


http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=gtrnfl081015

Gasol will have nights where he will play like an all-star and he will have nights where he will play mediocre ball and not play up to the standards he should be accountable towards in the first place. The killing thing with Gasol is that he's a two time all-star and as such should be playing to a higher accord given the money the Grizzlies signed him to back in the summer. Conley on the other hand has the issue of being the bulk of the backcourt offense. If a PG has a SG who is known for an inconsistent offensive set, the bulk of the offense will be on a PG such as Conley. In the month of November, Conley was averaging 16.1PPG, 6.2 APG. In the month of December, his averages has taken a slump. He's currently averaging 10.6PPG and 5.0 APG. It's likely the pressure of the load among other issues has lead to his slump in December.


Now with twenty-five games in the rearview now. Here's a question(s) I'm going to ask to the posters and lurkers here.


Can the Grizzlies find a way to compensate for the issues they are currently going through by trades or could they be forced to consider an inevitable rebuilding project that will take them out of the gauntlet that is the Western Conference playoff race for the remainder of the future.

Any other issues I didn't touch on that worth the discussion?

Just want to speak your mind about this season. Light this thread ablaze!

Your call.

[wco81]

Warriors fan here, who is perplexed by the decline of the Grizzlies.

Some observations, take it for FWIW:

Conley, Green and Courtney Lee are all UFAs after this season. They can't let all 3 go but to retain them might cost $15-20 million a year for Conley and Green.

All that would do is mostly keep the current team, which isn't as good as the teams from a few years ago when Hollins coached the team.

Then next year, Tony Allen and Zach Randolph will be UFAs. Both are old and again retaining both would just keep a team which has hit their ceiling 3 years ago.

But could they attract big free agents? Or let several of these UFAs go and tank for the draft? They've actually had better luck with lower picks than with high picks. Conley is a nice player but hasn't lived up to being the second player picked in his draft class.

If they keep the team together, their ceiling is probably a middle to bottom tier playoffs team, with probably a second round exit. And every year, that ceiling drops.

What's probably killing them is their drafts. The last good player they drafted was Kevin Love in 2008 and he's never played for them. Conley was in 2007 so it's been over 8 years since they've gotten a starter from the draft:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...MEM/draft.html

But the Grizzlies have had good rotation players, many of whom are now on other teams. I remember the Warriors being blown out few years ago in Memphis, with players like Speights, Dorrell Arthur pouring it on.

Leurer seems to be a key player for Phoenix this year and Koufos gets decent minutes for the Kings.

So are the players who've replaced these on the second unit as productive? I don't hear anything about recent draftees.

[Vinsanity_GOAT]

I'm not really a grizzlies fan but here's some random observations, not nearly everything you probably would like to know though:

- obviously they rarely get high picks since they're usually about a 50 win team

- they messed up in 2009 with hasheem thabeet, beyond they didn't really have any obvious misses in the draft imo. Just low picks. Maybe xavier henry at 12 in 2010 but honestly it was a pretty weak draft outside of the top 10, they're were a couple of good players picked after him but that's hindsight imo. Not like hasheem, that was obvious at the time.

- when they do get decent rookies like for example tony wroten, jordan adams, jarnell stokes, they don't really get a chance. Wroten and stokes got traded at 20yo. Adams and this year's pick jarell martin are injured.

- last year picked up whiteside in training camp, who looked amazing btw, and didn't keep him.

- they played vince most of the year even though he was injured, though i can't really blame them for that since, as a vc supporter, i know he's played through injuries against medical advice a lot during his career. By december even i was hoping jordan adams would get carter's minutes, also allowing vince to get surgery/rest/treatment/whatever to get ready for the postseason.

- leuer always showed flashes but too inconsistent imo, still... i preferred him over jamychal green. He's perfect for the suns run and gun style, i doubt he'd be as productive on the grizzlies.

[SD2042]

Warriors fan here, who is perplexed by the decline of the Grizzlies.

Some observations, take it for FWIW:

Conley, Green and Courtney Lee are all UFAs after this season. They can't let all 3 go but to retain them might cost $15-20 million a year for Conley and Green.

All that would do is mostly keep the current team, which isn't as good as the teams from a few years ago when Hollins coached the team.

Then next year, Tony Allen and Zach Randolph will be UFAs. Both are old and again retaining both would just keep a team which has hit their ceiling 3 years ago.

But could they attract big free agents? Or let several of these UFAs go and tank for the draft? They've actually had better luck with lower picks than with high picks. Conley is a nice player but hasn't lived up to being the second player picked in his draft class.

If they keep the team together, their ceiling is probably a middle to bottom tier playoffs team, with probably a second round exit. And every year, that ceiling drops.

What's probably killing them is their drafts. The last good player they drafted was Kevin Love in 2008 and he's never played for them. Conley was in 2007 so it's been over 8 years since they've gotten a starter from the draft:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...MEM/draft.html

But the Grizzlies have had good rotation players, many of whom are now on other teams. I remember the Warriors being blown out few years ago in Memphis, with players like Speights, Dorrell Arthur pouring it on.

Leurer seems to be a key player for Phoenix this year and Koufos gets decent minutes for the Kings.

So are the players who've replaced these on the second unit as productive? I don't hear anything about recent draftees.

On the UFAs coming up, it's for certain I would let Lee and Green walk if no trade was worked out during the trade deadline in 2016 . Those two practically do the same thing. Have the talent to do some damage, but are too passive aggressive to keep their efforts more consistent. MC11 is a 50/50 depending on if the Grizzlies continue to struggle to beat the premier teams like the Warriors, Cavs, Spurs, and Thunder for instance.

The thing with Conley I believe keeps him from getting the nod of an all-star status is who's ahead of him at his position. CP3, RW, Curry, and TP. These guys are great enough to get the recognition from the media and the league to get invites to the All-Star games in February. Although Conley has establish himself as a player in this league, his name is not likely to pop up in the list of say top five PGs in the NBA today. Another thing I think detracts him from getting that accolade is that he doesn't work with the best backcourt in the NBA.

What I mean is that he has a SG in TA who is strictly defensive minded over his albeit minor offensive contributions. You also have CLee, who in his own way is better than TA due to his better offensive set to go along with his defense sets. CLee offense however is night and day meaning he can get you 12 to 15pts in one game and he might get you 5 to 8 pts the next game night. That issue in my opinion puts some pressure on Conley to should more of the offensive responsibility. Without a consistent backcourt mate to help balance out the load, the pressure will eventually get to you. Conley would benefit from a go-to scorer to at least draw attention from the defense to where the spacing can spread out and keep the defense on their heels. BTW, Conley was picked fourth in his draft class.

Where the Grizzlies continue to fail at developing are their rookies for the future. Like you stated earlier, Conley is literally the last Grizzly who was developed under the organization. The jury is out on Adams and Martin as their time hasn't been determined. Nonetheless the organization's history of TOs amongst their rookies going back the last ten years is astounding. Something needs to be done to improve that issue for the sake of their rookie development. Another tendency the Grizzlies are known for is to draft players who don't match up with their system i.e. DeMarre Carroll, Tony Wroten, Jarrell Martin. These guys best benefit from an up-tempo system that utilizes their athleticism talents of getting up and down the floor in a quick pace. Not in a half-court setting the Grizzlies foundation is based on. Never made any sense to me.

As for attracting FAs, don't know if you been to Memphis or not, but Memphis isn't exactly a hot main attraction for FAs to jump towards. I remember when Ray Allen was playing for the Celts. His name came up in a trade rumor link to Memphis, can't tell me dude was pissed and did not want to be traded here. On some level, I can see his point. The team was at it's best at the time, but again as a city, Memphis has some ways to go towards better itself as a city attraction to attract more people and bigger businesses to grow financially, population, attraction wise. The best way for a team like to attract FAs is to acquire them via trade like the Grizzlies did with Z-Bo and Marc a few yrs back.

As for the Kevin Love deal, with the team having Z-Bo at the time, there was no need for Love being on the squad. So he was traded in that blockbuster deal for O.J. Mayo. If you remember Mayo first averaged 20.2PPG in his first year as a rookie. In his second year though, the Grizzlies asked him to come off the bench to bring Rudy Gay up front. Mayo did as ask, but that move took a toll on his confidence as he would never regain that big spark he had from his rookie season plus the poor series he had against the Clippers the year the Clips came back and beat them in the 7 game series spelled his doom. Rudy's contract along with his perimeter inconsistencies and clogging the lanes with Z-Bo and Gasol led to his departure from the team. I blame that on the Grizzlies. If they just let Mayo in the lineup and help him work on his dribble moves and defense, it's a 50/50 chance he would've a nod at all-star status.

[SD2042]

I'm not really a grizzlies fan but here's some random observations, not nearly everything you probably would like to know though:

- obviously they rarely get high picks since they're usually about a 50 win team

- they messed up in 2009 with hasheem thabeet, beyond they didn't really have any obvious misses in the draft imo. Just low picks. Maybe xavier henry at 12 in 2010 but honestly it was a pretty weak draft outside of the top 10, they're were a couple of good players picked after him but that's hindsight imo. Not like hasheem, that was obvious at the time.

- when they do get decent rookies like for example tony wroten, jordan adams, jarnell stokes, they don't really get a chance. Wroten and stokes got traded at 20yo. Adams and this year's pick jarell martin are injured.

- last year picked up whiteside in training camp, who looked amazing btw, and didn't keep him.

- they played vince most of the year even though he was injured, though i can't really blame them for that since, as a vc supporter, i know he's played through injuries against medical advice a lot during his career. By december even i was hoping jordan adams would get carter's minutes, also allowing vince to get surgery/rest/treatment/whatever to get ready for the postseason.

- leuer always showed flashes but too inconsistent imo, still... i preferred him over jamychal green. He's perfect for the suns run and gun style, i doubt he'd be as productive on the grizzlies.

On the Thabeet draft, I think would've screwed it up either way. I can imagine Curry here and the Grizzlies would find a way of screwing that up. Look at what happened to O.J. Mayo when they asked him to come off the bench after playing a great rookie season. Screwed up his confidence rather than helping him work on his weaknesses just as his dribble moves and defense.

As for the names of rookies you mention,whenever you are drafted to a team mostly with veterans, a rookie's chances of getting PT is slim to none. Especially if the team's main focus is to win games and chase after a championship. As for Whiteside, who didn't miss that one. Apparently Whiteside had to change his attitude about himself for him to become a better player in the league. So far in Miami he's making a name and a difference for himself. Hope he can keep it up. So big ups to him on that.

As for the VC signing, no disrespect, but that money was wasted. At this point, VC should've been brought in as a member of the coaching staff like an assistant coach to be a mentor to the young guys on the team to guide them with his experience from his career. Like with Juwan Howard is with the Miami Heat.

[wco81]

Randolph is 34 and his contract is up after next season. It seems unlikely he'll get a big contract, though he could continue to put up some big number games here and there.

With so many core players being UFAs after this season and the next, it seems the team could be re-made, depending on how the ownership approaches things.

[gom]

Watching you guys play the Pacers tonight, your team looked very strong, especially on defense.

[SD2042]

Randolph is 34 and his contract is up after next season. It seems unlikely he'll get a big contract, though he could continue to put up some big number games here and there.

With so many core players being UFAs after this season and the next, it seems the team could be re-made, depending on how the ownership approaches things.

A lot of issues need to be address with this roster. With this new ownership in charge, this will be their greatest test just out the gate. Robert Pera has to be smart and precise with the direction the Grizzlies need to go if they indeed go in the direction of rebuilding. That's pivotal towards getting the team back on track after a least 3 to 4 years of getting the right pieces together.

[SD2042]

Watching you guys play the Pacers tonight, your team looked very strong, especially on defense.

That's true for playing against a second tier team in the Pacers. No disrespect to Paul George and the season he's having. It's the top tier teams like the Warriors(2), Spurs(2), Cavs(1), and OKC(1-1) are the teams the Grizzlies can't seem to beat so far into the season. When you as a team who has been a playoff team cannot beat your top tier opponents, you have some problems that must be address.

[dark-child]

So how do we fix the problem, given we have no recent history of developing talent outside of Mike Conley & Marc Gasol?

[vanjulio]

Tonight They are playing poorly against a team they just beat recently at home . Chalmers ejected. Simply put , they lack the claws they had before. Time and perhaps some apathy has crept in. I heard only the Spurs and Bulls have as long a streak of reaching postseason as Memphis currently. Yet our success has only culminated in a 4-0 wcf sweep to Spurs in 2013. As far as draft picks - we did also pick Demarre Carroll who inconceivably matured into a borderline allstar . The Xavier Henry's and hakim warricks in other years have only been regrettable. Wroten can score on a bad team but I dare not call him a legit "starter". So we have a draft problem but who cares if you reach postseason every years. The issue is certainly free agency and at this point I think team identity. It reminds me of ivaoroni ball . The fact gasol is still a first team All NBA player hides the fact this team doesn't know wtf it wants to be

[SD2042]

So how do we fix the problem, given we have no recent history of developing talent outside of Mike Conley & Marc Gasol?

With the Western Conference looking very shaky at best from 4th down to 8th place from the playoff angle, I think this is the best time for the Grizzlies to go into rebuilding mode and go after some picks and young players already drafted by teams who are not currently playing their young talent due to being on a team full of vets. Also take back some expiring contracts to give the Grizzlies some cap room in the process. With the way the season has gone thus far, to me rebuilding is the best solution.

[jefe]

Problems that I have seen with the Grizzlies this year:

1) Zbo is done - he is giving no effort on defense and routinely having trouble scoring on offense in isolation
2) Gasol entered the season out of shape - I hate to say this, but he got his pay day and took the summer off.
3) Team-wide apathy. I tend to chalk this up to being a veteran team no particularly caring about November/December games, but it is truly out of character to get down by 10 in the third and then simply give up
4) No front court depth is hurting the team, especially in light of Zbo's decline and Gasol's decision to play himself into shape
5) Conley is in a shooting slump, but it's not really out of character - he has always kind of had valleys and peaks with his shot - he's in a valley but he'll get back to a peak soon enough