Possible Clippers vs Warriors Playoff Matchup

[og15]

The Clippers will most likely matchup against the Blazers in the first round. The Clippers will be the favorites, and the Blazers should present a good matchup, but we know what Doc's strategy against them will likely be. He will attack Lillard and/or McCollum on the pick and roll, and CP will get into Lillard and make his life difficult. It's what the Clippers have done with him for some time and considering it has been working, there's likely no need to change that. Since the Clippers have been able to beat the Blazers with that strategy, it is likely they stick to it and hope it works. This means there isn't too much discussion about what the Clippers need to do strategically to beat the Blazers.

For the purpose of this thread, we're going to hope it works and assume the Clippers are able to beat the Blazers and advance to the second round where they will face the Warriors since if this team isn't capable of beating the Blazers, then we don't even need to discuss much else about them. Of course we are all aware that the team will be the fairly heavy underdogs in the series, and that GS has beat on the Clippers in the regular season for the past two seasons.

The question I want to explore here is strategically, if the Clippers were to devise a strategy that could allow them the best chance to beat the Warriors, what would it be? By strategy, I don't mean obvious things like "Blake Griffin and Chris Paul will have to have a great series", and "Redick's shooting will need to be on point". That's not strategy, that's just reality that the best players will need to play well.

There are obviously the two general options of staying big vs going small and trying to match up with the Warriors when the situation presents itself.

For some background, here are the Clippers lineups vs the Warriors

Clippers have had some close games with the Warriors which is obviously good, better close games than consistently getting destroyed, but what can they do to get over the hump? Is there anything strategically from the teams who have beat the Warriors that the Clippers roster can allow them to implement succesfully to their advantage?

First of all, Doc has not gone small. DJ has averaged 37 mpg vs the Warriors in the four regular season matchups. Due to the injuries, obviously Blake was not available for two of the games. Due to injury, Redick was also not available for one of the early games which allowed the Crawford/Pierce death to all defense combination.

Warriors turnovers in losses:

Milwaukee: 16
Dallas (no Curry): 12
Denver: 13
Detroit: 12
Portland: 20
LA Lakers: 20
San Antonio: 10
Boston: 22
Minnesota: 23

So obviously one issue everyone knows about the Warriors is that they can be prone to turnovers. They've lost a total of 9 games and had 20+ turnovers in 4 of the 9 games. So one area an opposing team wants to try and attack is the turnover issue. Most people would think of it in relation to blitzing the pick and roll and trying to force Curry into mistakes, which is not bad, but what about Draymond? In their losses, Draymond is averaging 4.9 tpg while Curry is averaging 4.1 tpg.

So what could this mean in terms of strategies:

1) Pressure as much as reasonable to try and force GS into extra turnovers: Obvious one, easier said than done, and you won't accomplish it every game of course, but if you can get about 2 games where their turnovers get out of control, those are games which you have a greater chance of winning. I think specifically look at how to force Draymond into more mistakes also. The Warriors are so efficient at shooting that an obvious way to limit their offense and help yours is to get them to cough up the ball, a lot.

2) Use the foul game to your advantage as much as possible: CP got Curry in foul trouble in early foul trouble in two of the games this season, and while you can't expect to do that every game, that is something you want to look to do. So again, it's not going to happen every game, but if you can have that happen a couple of times, you're increasing your chances. Draymond is a smart player, smart defender, and he gets a bit more leeway than others when it comes to aggressive play, but Draymond has had 4+ fouls in 3/4 games vs the Clippers, so it would be wise to also try and put him in positions to pick up fouls.

3) Focus on Klay Thompson?: Curry gets most of the focus, but this idea is out of the Popovich book. Last season against the Clippers, Popovich made a concerted effort to try and get Redick off his game. Redick did adjust as the series went along which was great and helped. The idea was that Paul would likely get his in the end no matter who you put on him, but the Clippers making up for 16 ppg / 62% TS would not be an easy task. Redick averaged 11.0 ppg / .470 TS% the first three games of the series and the Clippers went down 2-1. Limiting Green's scoring won't do much, that's not his main strength, and Steph will get his anyways. So how can you limit Thompson as much as possible? We're talking about 22 ppg on 60% TS, that's killer, so if for a series you can limit him, that can go a long way. That was a big help in Cleveland being able to push their series to 6 games last season. The question of course is how are you actually going to do it? Redick's size obviously makes it hard. If you put Luc on Thompson, it means Redick has to guard Barnes who can take him in the post. If you believe Mbah can do some work on Thompson, maybe you take the chance and then hope that Barnes doesn't kill Redick.

In 4 of the Warriors losses, Thompson was awful, vs Milwaukee, SA (Mar 19), Lakers and Dallas (no Curry). He had a TS% <40% in all those games. The Warriors lost by double digits in 3 of those 4. The problem is what exactly would be the plan to get a couple of games like that from Thompson outside of just "hope he's off".

What do you guys think? What would the Clippers need to do strategically to give themselves the best shot? Is trying to get Klay off his game a logical plan based on the fact that it would leave Redick guarding a much bigger player?

[Ranma]

I think applying defensive pressure and physicality to the Warriors Big 3 of Curry, Thompson, and Green is key to beating the Warriors. The problem is whether we have the personnel to implement this strategy. Ideally, I'd have Barnes, Green, Iguodala, or whomever else try to beat us with their scoring. Any one of them can probably go off on any given night, but it is unlikely any of them will do so for an entire series. Even if one or more step up on different nights, I'd love to face a team with Green, Barnes, and Iguodala leading them offensively. Of course, it is easier said than done to minimize the damage of both Splash Bros.

I want to be physical with Curry and Thompson defensively and tire them out offensively with whomever they are guarding. CP3 could hound Curry all night and make him fight for his shots and passes while Redick will run his defender--Curry or Thompson--ragged with his perpetual motion on offense. I'm not counting on Griffin much on offense, so would like to have him focus his efforts on being physical with Green. I'd allow Green to get his perimeter shots but focus on keeping him off the boards and cutting off his passing and driving lanes. The concern is with getting Griffin into foul trouble. Conversely, Green seems to get a free-pass from refs with his antics that keeps him from getting ejected or fouling out regardless if he's in foul trouble, taking out players, or demonstratively complaining to the referees. This is another area of disadvantage for us. The Clippers are more susceptible to foul calls and technicals as opposed to the Warriors. This goes beyond homecourt advantage.

DJ will also be focused on with the Deck-a-DJ foul game. Even still, finding easy lob opportunities for him will open up opportunities for other players even as a decoy. My game plan is heavily reliant on both Paul and Redick carrying us on offense with Griffin and Jordan being opportunistic in their offensive looks but primarily focused on defending their man and area, respectively. We'll need someone else to step up to hit open 3-pointers. Can we rely on Crawford to be consistent and under-control even if he has a history of disappearing in the postseason and being a defensive sieve? Is Pierce more lie than Truth during his twilight years? We can't count on Johnson for consistency or grit. Anything from Mbah A Moute offensively is a bonus. That basically leaves us relying on Jeff Green to step up consistently throughout this series, which is something I'm not exactly optimistic about.

The Clippers will also have to apply a killer instinct throughout no matter how much we're up or down in terms of points differential. The Warrriors have shown they can get hot in a flash with just a sliver of space when their opponents let up. It happened against us during our first meeting during the regular season. It also goes without saying that our collapse against the Rockets in the last postseason should still be fresh in our minds. We should not let up until the final buzzer sounds, especially in light of our history. Both Curry and Thompson, in particular, have proven dangerous in the late moments even if they've struggled earlier in games.

Of course, limiting turnovers on offense while creating them on defense is another key component to this whole thing being effective, which probably means having the ball primarily in CP3's hands with both Griffin and Redick as secondary options. Doc will give both Crawford and Junior Rivers opportunities to bring the ball up with the 2nd unit, so we can only hope that they'll limit their turnovers when called upon.

One can hope for a quick series toward victory but that would be unrealistic. In short, my strategy involves focusing on the Splash Bros., neutralizing Green with physicality from Griffin, relying primarily on Paul and Redick for offense and playmaking while trying to make Iguodala, Green, and Barnes beat us on offense for the entirety of the series. That's the plan, anyway.

[DLaren]

"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" - 'Iron' Mike Tyson.

Every player on our roster gets 6 fouls -- no one should finish the game without using at least 4 of them...

...and when I say 'fouls', I mean 'FOULS'.

I'm convinced this 'strategy' would work because I don't believe we can out-maneuver them on the clip-board -- and if the Warriors still manage to beat us, at least they would limp into the Conference Finals...literally.

But maybe I'm just old-fashioned; when if you couldn't beat a team skillfully, you made sure to beat them physically.

[Ranma]

I'm all for the grit of the Bad Boys of Detroit but I don't want to cross the line into dirty territory. However, I definitely want the intensity of those classic Lakers-versus-Celtics series of the 80's and both teams crossed a few lines on occasion during their epic battles. To borrow from the speech of Coach Bill Yoast: Make sure they remember, forever, the nights they played the Clippers!

[QRich3]

I think that same strategy they'll use against Lillard is the most effective to use against Curry too, trap him heavy out of the high P&R and make him move the ball away from his hands quickly. It worked two years ago and it's been somewhat effective in the RS games. Obviously the warriors are not the same team they were two years ago, and if you trap a guy you're gonna pay beacuse they move the ball so well and all of them can shoot, but it's still better than giving Curry space to drive or pull up. It's gonna be pretty much imposible to contain them, but I guess sticking with the thing that's been most effective should be the plan at first.

I like that Doc doesn't like to go small against them and a few teams have been copying that strategy lately, offensive rebounding is a good way to hurt them and the main weak point of their "death" line up (what a corny name btw). I know Doc hates his guys crashing the boards but they really have a tendency to go out in transition too quick.

Other than that, attack Curry on defense as much as possible, if they put him on JJ let's keep running pin downs for him, if they put him on Paul, spam the P&R, if they try to hide him on our SF, put Green on and run a few post ups for him. They are good on defense cause they exploit weaknesses ruthlessly, let's do the same thing and tire him up.

Try to play the bench as Little as possible too, anyti9me they come in there's a good chance that the game escapes from us.

It's gonna be really tuff to keep up with them to be honest.

[og15]

"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" - 'Iron' Mike Tyson.

Every player on our roster gets 6 fouls -- no one should finish the game without using at least 4 of them...

...and when I say 'fouls', I mean 'FOULS'.

I'm convinced this 'strategy' would work because I don't believe we can out-maneuver them on the clip-board -- and if the Warriors still manage to beat us, at least they would limp into the Conference Finals...literally.

But maybe I'm just old-fashioned; when if you couldn't beat a team skillfully, you made sure to beat them physically.

Here's the only thing though, fouling tends to end up being bad defense because shooting FT's (if you aren't DeAndre Jordan) is extremely efficient offense. Also in this day and age there's the issue of flagrant fouls, and lastly we might end up beating them up only to lose and send them ailing for the next opponent.

I think that same strategy they'll use against Lillard is the most effective to use against Curry too, trap him heavy out of the high P&R and make him move the ball away from his hands quickly. It worked two years ago and it's been somewhat effective in the RS games. Obviously the warriors are not the same team they were two years ago, and if you trap a guy you're gonna pay beacuse they move the ball so well and all of them can shoot, but it's still better than giving Curry space to drive or pull up. It's gonna be pretty much imposible to contain them, but I guess sticking with the thing that's been most effective should be the plan at first.

I like that Doc doesn't like to go small against them and a few teams have been copying that strategy lately, offensive rebounding is a good way to hurt them and the main weak point of their "death" line up (what a corny name btw). I know Doc hates his guys crashing the boards but they really have a tendency to go out in transition too quick.

Other than that, attack Curry on defense as much as possible, if they put him on JJ let's keep running pin downs for him, if they put him on Paul, spam the P&R, if they try to hide him on our SF, put Green on and run a few post ups for him. They are good on defense cause they exploit weaknesses ruthlessly, let's do the same thing and tire him up.

Try to play the bench as Little as possible too, anyti9me they come in there's a good chance that the game escapes from us.

It's gonna be really tuff to keep up with them to be honest.

Yea, on one hand you don't want the let Curry get all he wants, but on the other hand you know that Draymond playing 4 v 3 is going to be hard to contain. Still, there's no perfect defense, you have to give up something. Hard trapping Curry can limit his attempts and can also force him into some extra turnovers. If you do both of those things, that helps.

I agree about the offensive rebounding, I was going to make that my 4th point, which would be to send a 2nd guy on the glass. I've mentioned before that we've seen good offensive rebounding teams like Indiana and Chicago in the past who were still elite defenses and who could still get back in transition. Against the small lineup it would be nice to have both Blake and DJ crashing the offensive glass while everyone else gets back.

No matter what the strategy it will be hard. This is a case where you can execute everything as you're "supposed" to and you'll just lose because of the talent level of the opposition. That's just life sometimes.

[QRich3]

Yeah, that's why they're an ATG offensive team, you let Curry do his thing and he goes bananas and kills your team's whole momentum. You take the ball out of him, and the other 4 guys are way too good passers and shooters that they'll make big runs at any given moment. It's not gonna be easy, but in the past, forcing them to make plays with Curry out of the picture has worked better for us than the other way around.

On the other side, yeah, offensive rebounding is a good way to hurt them, but if you are just a little bit careless there, they kill you in transition too, with big run after big run. You just gotta be so precise and consistent all the time on both ends, and even if you manage that, it's possible they still win based on talent alone.

Only way I can see to have a chance is being as decisive and ruthless in attacking weaknesses as they are. Attack Curry every single play he's defending. Pick'n'roll with CP, curls with JJ, post ups with Green/Pierce, wherever they put him we need to go at him until he's dead tired of running around. Every time Iguodala is on the floor, he needs to be the one taking the shot. EVERY-FREAKIN-TIME, it doesn't matter if he just made 5 threes in a row. Same with Livingston. You know they're gonna do exactly that to Luc, Pierce and Jamal, until they're unplayable.

Forgot to say in the previous post though, but we need to worry about the Blazers first, they're gonna be a tough opponent too.

[BlzMwt]

I see a lot of the onus is on CP (as it should be). Posts mentioning to hound curry on defense, while going at him on offense with pick and roll after pick and roll. If CP is tasked with trying to defend Curry for the entire game, and in a respectable manner... his offense is going to suffer I expect. Also it's been mentioned that you need to keep your turnovers down, well that's on CP too and the more effort he gives on D, the higher likelihood it is that he gives the ball up more on the other end. You can't expect him to be fully engaged on both ends. Unfortunately, with Blake not back into form (will he ever be back to his old form?), we can't really divert the playmaking to him.

Same thing for Redick. You saw him play great D against Harden at times last year... but his offense definitely suffered down the end. Him trying to handle Klay Thompson or Barnes is gonna be a problem if we expect him to also do his thing on offense.

To be honest, I don't really have a solution for this. Just stating a problem. Unfortunately, for the Clippers, they don't have a Livingston or Igoudala to come in off the bench and play lock up D if the starters need a rest.

This problem could really be compounded if you have the series with Portland going into 6 or 7 games as well. The strategy is to put all pressure on Lillard and to some extent, McCollum. CP and Redick are gonna be fatigued from that, then get the GS backcourt.

Ideally, Portland gets swept or taken care of in 5 games. GS first round series goes to 6 or 7. All of the rest Paul and Redick have been getting the last few weeks pays off and they are fully energized.

[Roscoe Sheed]

While the Clippers would certainly be underdogs against the Warriors, they have a chance- more than most teams. If I could select one point guard to go against Curry it would be CP3. He can challenge him on both ends. Hopefully Blake would be fully up to speed by then because he will need to punish the Warriors inside. I would like to see a lot of screen and roll action with CP3 and both Blake and DJ inter-changeably.

I think the starters can hang with the Warriors starters. It would be vital to have some bench contribution though- whether it is Rivers giving some defensive spark. Pierce hitting some timely shots, and Green being more consistent. I think Doc would have to significantly limit Moute's minutes because he is such an offensive handicap. They would need Pierce or Green to play more to punish them in the post- particularly if they try to have Curry guard the 3 position at times. Doc would have to maintain a quick leash with the bench- if Rivers starts to turn the ball over, if Crawford starts taking really bad shots or is badly victimized on D, or if Aldrich can't hang with the smaller, quicker line ups- Doc needs to make adjustments quickly before GSW opens up big leads.

As was stated above, I think it is smart to trap Curry and hope to recover in time to challenge the shots of the other guys. You can't let him get in a groove- he could make 12 three pointers in a row.

It would be a huge challenge to beat them- but it is possible. I just hope the Clippers fully concentrate on the Blazers in order to avoid a terrible upset. They should have played the Warriors last playoffs and I was very disappointment they blew that 3-1 lead.

[Wammy Giveaway]

Doc would have to maintain a quick leash with the bench - if Rivers starts to turn the ball over, if Crawford starts taking really bad shots or is badly victimized on defense, or if Aldrich can't hang with the smaller,quicker line ups - Doc needs to make adjustments quickly before Golden State opens up big leads.

First time I ever used the word, this to agree on a post. Doc has a favorites problem as we all know. He will favor Pierce and Green for being former Celtics who played for Doc before, Crawford for being the next best thing to Kobe Bryant as an isolation player and somebody who helped defeat Doc's Big 3 Celtics in the past, and his own son due to the "false" belief that love will win them a championship. Doc needs to be more coach than GM on the sideline. He cannot allow his own father personality to compromise the coach's game plan.

Could you imagine a game in the series where the Clipper starters played all 48 minutes with no participation from the bench whatsoever? The thought of a bench-less game scares the life out of me.

[nickhx2]

theoretically if an opponent is exploiting your scheme or your player flying off the handle, yes you make an adjustment. but there's no cavalry to save this team if austin and crawford start blowing the game. doc made sure of that.

[wco81]

Charles Barkley said tonight that the Clippers are the best team to beat the Warriors because of Griffin, Jordan and Paul.

And said Doc now has a couple of good bench players too.

He guaranteed the Warriors won't win the title. A couple of months ago, he said the Spurs were better.

He did mention getting really physical with the Warriors, punishing them on the boards. But he meant that's what all teams should try to do, not necessarily the Clippers.

[nickhx2]

charles barkley is a grade A moron. i mean sure if blake was pre-injury blake and team actually HAD two good bench players then sure maybe he might be right. that's not the case.

[mttwlsn16]

"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" - 'Iron' Mike Tyson.

Every player on our roster gets 6 fouls -- no one should finish the game without using at least 4 of them...

...and when I say 'fouls', I mean 'FOULS'.

I'm convinced this 'strategy' would work because I don't believe we can out-maneuver them on the clip-board -- and if the Warriors still manage to beat us, at least they would limp into the Conference Finals...literally.

But maybe I'm just old-fashioned; when if you couldn't beat a team skillfully, you made sure to beat them physically.

I like this

[nickhx2]

yeah man, sending curry to the foul line 30 times a game is totally gonna work in our favor

[Quake Griffin]

I agree with a lot of sentiments ITT.
Double Curry on Pick and Rolls.
Stick Luc on Klay and see what comes out in the wash.

Live and Die with the odds of Draymond making plays all game and all series long. I don't think it's an absolute lock but it puts the odds more in our favor than they would have. I can live with Draymond and Iggy being MVPs of the series if we've bottled Steph up.


Quake's Keys:
Defensive Rebounding. Bottling Steph up means nothing if we're giving up Orebs for kick outs. It's practically impossible to keep up with him a that point.

Efficient offense/ limit turnovers. Limit their ability to run out.

Ball pressure….if there is a weakness in that team, it's that they'll cough the ball up from time to time.

Oh one more key…Put Steph in screen roll after screen roll.
a) want him to work on D
b) he gives CP an extra step in the lane when guarding him and tries to draw a cheap charge. Hasn't hurt us all year….it will rear its ugly head in a series.

[nickhx2]

imo you gotta just let cp3 play straight up on curry. this team has been horrendous with team defense/rotations against the warriors. it exposes us because the team has players who seem to give up every box out and backdoor possession humanly possible.

[wassuphomeboy]

Whatever you do, don't trap or double Draymond on the screen and roll. Iso him and make him score 40 a game to beat you.

Also as counterintuitive as it sounds, I would single cover Steph. He's the MVP but I rather him get his buckets than give Klay or Barnes open 3s. Force him to put the ball on the floor too where his decision making can be shaky at times.

[Don Tommy]

You guys remember the Doc / CJ McCollum fiasco from earlier this year? Yes, it was 100% made up by the media, but you don't think it will be used as motivation by the Blazers? Last time we played them we needed a hell of a comeback to squeak out a last second shot. I have been a fan since 1988, and one thing I have learned is never ever count on a win. You focus on the second round and you may never get out of the first!
Please, let's not jinx anything... let's table this talk until the second round begins. For all we know the Rockets will upset the Warriors and well have that rematch in the second round!

[nickhx2]

for sure it will. but whatever, if they need fool's gold to get up for the playoffs they don't have what it takes to win in the first place.