Knicks Offseason review on the trade board

[HartfordWhalers]

As part of a series of offseasons in review -- viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1467470 -- a few of us on the trade board have been doing, today was the Knicks' turn for a review. So please feel free to swing by and tell us what we got right and wrong, and what you think about the Knicks' offseason here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1478126

In general the reviews ranged from expecting 33 to 40 wins, with letter grades in a tight range from D to C-.

[Jellybeans]

When i see something like this - Projected Win/Loss: 32-34 i just wanna go and kill myself.Healthy or not but you cant play worse then last year without existing backcourt..

[King of Canada]

Oh god, this again?

[Adelheid]

Of course we will get low projections; we are the knicks afterall, people just love **** on the knicks.

[HEZI]

I fail to see any real basketball analysis. All I read was a bunch of opinions on contracts and assumptions that the Knicks won't stay healthy, which makes me believe that you guys really don't know much about basketball other than reading and analyzing stats.

Not one person even brought up the possibility, the just the possibility of any type of success on the court. Nobody even mentioned anything about Derrick Rose ability to break down the defense and his ability to still be one of the fastest players in the league with the ball. Nobody mentioned how poorly the Knicks were in transition offense last year and the capabilities of the new players thriving in Hornacek's offense where he likes his players to get up the floor quickly. Nobody mentioned Joakim Noah's superior mobility, passing ability and vocal leadership when compared to Robin Lopez and what effect that might have on the team. It's basic things like this which don't get talked about that really make me question the basketball intellect of these critics.

[blueNorange]

I fail to see any real basketball analysis. All I read was a bunch of opinions on contracts and assumptions that the Knicks won't stay healthy, which makes me believe that you guys really don't know much about basketball other than reading and analyzing stats.

Not one person even brought up the possibility, the just the possibility of any type of success on the court. Nobody even mentioned anything about Derrick Rose ability to break down the defense and his ability to still be one of the fastest players in the league with the ball. Nobody mentioned how poorly the Knicks were in transition offense last year and the capabilities of the new players thriving in Hornacek's offense where he likes his players to get up the floor quickly. Nobody mentioned Joakim Noah's superior mobility, passing ability and vocal leadership when compared to Robin Lopez and what effect that might have on the team. It's basic things like this which don't get talked about that really make me question the basketball intellect of these critics.

noah is injury prone and runs like his legs are made of glass
rose isn't good anymore

nothing what you said above about the current rose and current noah is accurate. not one bit.

[blueNorange]

noah just came off a 29 game season where he shot 38% of the floor(44% the year before) but people are sleeping on him, lmaooo

nobody is sleeping on noah or rose, everyone knows what they are at this point except knick fans who think they're getting DPOY(or even close to that) and mvp rose(or even close to that)

[HEZI]

I fail to see any real basketball analysis. All I read was a bunch of opinions on contracts and assumptions that the Knicks won't stay healthy, which makes me believe that you guys really don't know much about basketball other than reading and analyzing stats.

Not one person even brought up the possibility, the just the possibility of any type of success on the court. Nobody even mentioned anything about Derrick Rose ability to break down the defense and his ability to still be one of the fastest players in the league with the ball. Nobody mentioned how poorly the Knicks were in transition offense last year and the capabilities of the new players thriving in Hornacek's offense where he likes his players to get up the floor quickly. Nobody mentioned Joakim Noah's superior mobility, passing ability and vocal leadership when compared to Robin Lopez and what effect that might have on the team. It's basic things like this which don't get talked about that really make me question the basketball intellect of these critics.

noah is injury prone and runs like his legs are made of glass
rose isn't good anymore

nothing what you said above about the current rose and current noah is accurate. not one bit.

You are the least knowledgeable about the game on this entire board, I really don't take anything you say seriously.

[Slava]

I fail to see any real basketball analysis. All I read was a bunch of opinions on contracts and assumptions that the Knicks won't stay healthy, which makes me believe that you guys really don't know much about basketball other than reading and analyzing stats.

Not one person even brought up the possibility, the just the possibility of any type of success on the court. Nobody even mentioned anything about Derrick Rose ability to break down the defense and his ability to still be one of the fastest players in the league with the ball. Nobody mentioned how poorly the Knicks were in transition offense last year and the capabilities of the new players thriving in Hornacek's offense where he likes his players to get up the floor quickly. Nobody mentioned Joakim Noah's superior mobility, passing ability and vocal leadership when compared to Robin Lopez and what effect that might have on the team. It's basic things like this which don't get talked about that really make me question the basketball intellect of these critics.

Derrick Rose was amongst the bottom 11th percentile of players in transition last season with 0.85 points per play.
Noah was amongst the bottom 1th percentile of players in transition at 0.57 points per play.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/transition/?CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*CHI

[shtolky]

I fail to see any real basketball analysis. All I read was a bunch of opinions on contracts and assumptions that the Knicks won't stay healthy, which makes me believe that you guys really don't know much about basketball other than reading and analyzing stats.

Not one person even brought up the possibility, the just the possibility of any type of success on the court. Nobody even mentioned anything about Derrick Rose ability to break down the defense and his ability to still be one of the fastest players in the league with the ball. Nobody mentioned how poorly the Knicks were in transition offense last year and the capabilities of the new players thriving in Hornacek's offense where he likes his players to get up the floor quickly. Nobody mentioned Joakim Noah's superior mobility, passing ability and vocal leadership when compared to Robin Lopez and what effect that might have on the team. It's basic things like this which don't get talked about that really make me question the basketball intellect of these critics.

noah is injury prone and runs like his legs are made of glass
rose isn't good anymore

nothing what you said above about the current rose and current noah is accurate. not one bit.

Noah isn't really injury prone though. Before last season's injury, a shoulder injury which is far less worrisome than a leg injury, he played in 85% of the Bulls games over the prior 4 seasons. Also, you focus on Rose not being "good anymore," when you forget who our starting point guard was last season. Do you really think Rose/Lee isn't a huge improvement over Calderon/Sasha? Don't compare the current Rose to 2011 Rose, compare him to 2015 Calderon.

[blueNorange]

I fail to see any real basketball analysis. All I read was a bunch of opinions on contracts and assumptions that the Knicks won't stay healthy, which makes me believe that you guys really don't know much about basketball other than reading and analyzing stats.

Not one person even brought up the possibility, the just the possibility of any type of success on the court. Nobody even mentioned anything about Derrick Rose ability to break down the defense and his ability to still be one of the fastest players in the league with the ball. Nobody mentioned how poorly the Knicks were in transition offense last year and the capabilities of the new players thriving in Hornacek's offense where he likes his players to get up the floor quickly. Nobody mentioned Joakim Noah's superior mobility, passing ability and vocal leadership when compared to Robin Lopez and what effect that might have on the team. It's basic things like this which don't get talked about that really make me question the basketball intellect of these critics.

noah is injury prone and runs like his legs are made of glass
rose isn't good anymore

nothing what you said above about the current rose and current noah is accurate. not one bit.

Noah isn't really injury prone though. Before last season's injury, a shoulder injury which is far less worrisome than a leg injury, he played in 85% of the Bulls games over the prior 4 seasons. Also, you focus on Rose not being "good anymore," when you forget who our starting point guard was last season. Do you really think Rose/Lee isn't a huge improvement over Calderon/Sasha? Don't compare the current Rose to 2011 Rose, compare him to 2015 Calderon.

i'm not explaining myself when noah is injury prone, and rose isn't good.

[bondom34]

I fail to see any real basketball analysis. All I read was a bunch of opinions on contracts and assumptions that the Knicks won't stay healthy, which makes me believe that you guys really don't know much about basketball other than reading and analyzing stats.

Not one person even brought up the possibility, the just the possibility of any type of success on the court. Nobody even mentioned anything about Derrick Rose ability to break down the defense and his ability to still be one of the fastest players in the league with the ball. Nobody mentioned how poorly the Knicks were in transition offense last year and the capabilities of the new players thriving in Hornacek's offense where he likes his players to get up the floor quickly. Nobody mentioned Joakim Noah's superior mobility, passing ability and vocal leadership when compared to Robin Lopez and what effect that might have on the team. It's basic things like this which don't get talked about that really make me question the basketball intellect of these critics.

Derrick Rose was amongst the bottom 11th percentile of players in transition last season with 0.85 points per play.
Noah was amongst the bottom 1th percentile of players in transition at 0.57 points per play.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/transition/?CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*CHI

He also ranked 77 of 81 in RPM among PGs. He was 409 of 480 NBA players in single year RAPM, just behind other PGs such as Jameer Nelson and a bit further behind Norris Cole. The Bulls were nearly 5 points per 100 better with him on the bench. And Noah hasn't been healthy in 2 seasons in which he's had multiple health issues. If you'd like to go further into the numbers, we're all open to it on the trade board.

[GONYK]

I'm not sure why you guys act like these projections are so nuts. They are based on the play of these players last season, and 2 of our most important pieces were really bad last season.

I think, in terms of skillsets, this is one of the best constructed starting lineups we've had in a long time. All the pieces fit together pretty wonderfully. But that is just on paper, with an expectation that Noah and Rose play better than last season.

If Rose and Noah play similarly to last season, then we aren't that good. Of course, there is also the possibility that they don't play that much at all.

So really, this team has a decent ceiling and a low floor. I can't blame evaluators who don't have any emotion attached to this for betting on the low end. Based on recent history, it is the more likely possibility.

[Andre Roberstan]

If all these players are the best versions of themselves and aren't injured, this is a very good team.

I have zero confidence that that will happen. Thus the low grade.

[shtolky]

I fail to see any real basketball analysis. All I read was a bunch of opinions on contracts and assumptions that the Knicks won't stay healthy, which makes me believe that you guys really don't know much about basketball other than reading and analyzing stats.

Not one person even brought up the possibility, the just the possibility of any type of success on the court. Nobody even mentioned anything about Derrick Rose ability to break down the defense and his ability to still be one of the fastest players in the league with the ball. Nobody mentioned how poorly the Knicks were in transition offense last year and the capabilities of the new players thriving in Hornacek's offense where he likes his players to get up the floor quickly. Nobody mentioned Joakim Noah's superior mobility, passing ability and vocal leadership when compared to Robin Lopez and what effect that might have on the team. It's basic things like this which don't get talked about that really make me question the basketball intellect of these critics.

Derrick Rose was amongst the bottom 11th percentile of players in transition last season with 0.85 points per play.
Noah was amongst the bottom 1th percentile of players in transition at 0.57 points per play.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/transition/?CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*CHI

He also ranked 77 of 81 in RPM among PGs. He was 409 of 480 NBA players in single year RAPM, just behind other PGs such as Jameer Nelson and a bit further behind Norris Cole. The Bulls were nearly 5 points per 100 better with him on the bench. And Noah hasn't been healthy in 2 seasons in which he's had multiple health issues. If you'd like to go further into the numbers, we're all open to it on the trade board.

I fully understand where you are going with the advanced stats argument, along with your Noah injury assertion, but there are problems with this. First of all, while I see merit in advanced stats and RPM, it's a flawed stat is some ways. I am not one to tout Rose's potential MVP caliber comeback this year because I think that is a pipe dream, but can you honestly say that the Knicks are better off with Calderon as their starting PG over Rose? I think anyone who watched the Knicks all year would laugh at this suggestion. Just for reference by the way, Calderon ranked 24 out of 81 point guards in RPM, ahead of such scrubs as Kyrie Irving, Jeff Teague, and Avery Bradley. Patrick Beverly ranks 9th in RPM ahead of Lillard, Thomas, and Dragic.

As for Noah not being healthy in the past two seasons, I think this is simplifying things. First, his last injury was a shoulder injury which is far less severe than a leg injury. And the year prior to that, one of the seasons you say he was unhealthy, sure, he didn't put up his 2013-14 numbers, but that year he played 67 games and averaged 7ppg, 9.6rpg, 4.7apg, 1.1bpg in just over 30mpg. Again, I am not one to assume he will return to his old form, but if he gives us those numbers (especially the assist numbers in this offense), then he is a CLEAR upgrade over Lopez. And finally, I think people who poo-poo this Knicks offseason, for some reason, always conveniently forget to mention KP...you know, one of the better rookies to come along in the past 10 or so years. Why people never speak about a potential year 2 leap is a convenient oversight which allows the negativity over possible future injuries to lesser players.

[bondom34]

I fully understand where you are going with the advanced stats argument, along with your Noah injury assertion, but there are problems with this. First of all, while I see merit in advanced stats and RPM, it's a flawed stat is some ways. I am not one to tout Rose's potential MVP caliber comeback this year because I think that is a pipe dream, but can you honestly say that the Knicks are better off with Calderon as their starting PG over Rose? I think anyone who watched the Knicks all year would laugh at this suggestion. Just for reference by the way, Calderon ranked 24 out of 81 point guards in RPM, ahead of such scrubs as Kyrie Irving, Jeff Teague, and Avery Bradley. Patrick Beverly ranks 9th in RPM ahead of Lillard, Thomas, and Dragic.

As for Noah not being healthy in the past two seasons, I think this is simplifying things. First, his last injury was a shoulder injury which is far less severe than a leg injury. And the year prior to that, one of the seasons you say he was unhealthy, sure, he didn't put up his 2013-14 numbers, but that year he played 67 games and averaged 7ppg, 9.6rpg, 4.7apg, 1.1bpg in just over 30mpg. Again, I am not one to assume he will return to his old form, but if he gives us those numbers (especially the assist numbers in this offense), then he is a CLEAR upgrade over Lopez. And finally, I think people who poo-poo this Knicks offseason, for some reason, always conveniently forget to mention KP...you know, one of the better rookies to come along in the past 10 or so years. Why people never speak about a potential year 2 leap is a convenient oversight which allows the negativity over possible future injuries to lesser players.

I think Rose is sadly not much better than Calderon at this point. If he were Rose of 3 years ago, sure, he's good. But he's been on a worse decline, has been constantly hurt, is a poor shooter, poor defender, and the Bulls (a team mind you who wasn't good offensively) were better offensively when he was on the bench for the season. His backups were Hinrich and Brooks, who are probably close to Jose.

As for Noah, same thing. Lopez was and is a really good value contract who grades out defensively better than Noah has the last year or 2. I was a huge huge huge Noah fan, loved his heart and thought he deserved DPOY in 2014. But since then he's missed time but more importantly its how he's missed it. His history is one that looks like a gradual degradation of health, to which you're now paying 72 million over the next 4 seasons. So even if he's a slight upgrade this year, you need him to stay healthy the following 3 after that. I don't think he's a clear upgrade to current RoLo, and even if he is, he has to remain fully healthy for 4 years at twice the contract price.

Please though I'd invite you all to the trade board to continue. Would love the traffic.

[HEZI]

I fail to see any real basketball analysis. All I read was a bunch of opinions on contracts and assumptions that the Knicks won't stay healthy, which makes me believe that you guys really don't know much about basketball other than reading and analyzing stats.

Not one person even brought up the possibility, the just the possibility of any type of success on the court. Nobody even mentioned anything about Derrick Rose ability to break down the defense and his ability to still be one of the fastest players in the league with the ball. Nobody mentioned how poorly the Knicks were in transition offense last year and the capabilities of the new players thriving in Hornacek's offense where he likes his players to get up the floor quickly. Nobody mentioned Joakim Noah's superior mobility, passing ability and vocal leadership when compared to Robin Lopez and what effect that might have on the team. It's basic things like this which don't get talked about that really make me question the basketball intellect of these critics.

Derrick Rose was amongst the bottom 11th percentile of players in transition last season with 0.85 points per play.
Noah was amongst the bottom 1th percentile of players in transition at 0.57 points per play.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/transition/?CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*CHI

This is my exact point. You look at stats and not the games.

Those stats also tell you that Pau Gasol is team leader in transition PPP with 1.22 and also in the 75th percentile
Mike Dunleavy is 2nd with 1.20 and 72nd percentile and Kirk Heinrich is 3rd with 1.07 PPP and 70th percentile

So you mean to tell me that judging by those stats you will sit there and tell me that all 3 of those guys are better in transition than both Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler?

Even though Derrick Rose lead the team in transition possessions with 189 and was 2nd in total points in transition of 161, behind Butler who scored 180.

Gasol, Dunleavy and Hinrich COMBINED didn't score as many fastbreak points as Rose. Those 3 players combined for 157 total points in transition.

Rose also was responsible for assisting most of those guys in transition because the defense would rush back to protect the paint and those guys were allowed to trail back and be wide open for spot up jumpers.

Reading stats vs. watching games will mess you up like this

[thebuzzardman]

This post was like a mod magnet of of the dumb opinions on the Knicks that circulates on the general board, which is why most of us don't read it or post there.

[thebuzzardman]

I fully understand where you are going with the advanced stats argument, along with your Noah injury assertion, but there are problems with this. First of all, while I see merit in advanced stats and RPM, it's a flawed stat is some ways. I am not one to tout Rose's potential MVP caliber comeback this year because I think that is a pipe dream, but can you honestly say that the Knicks are better off with Calderon as their starting PG over Rose? I think anyone who watched the Knicks all year would laugh at this suggestion. Just for reference by the way, Calderon ranked 24 out of 81 point guards in RPM, ahead of such scrubs as Kyrie Irving, Jeff Teague, and Avery Bradley. Patrick Beverly ranks 9th in RPM ahead of Lillard, Thomas, and Dragic.

As for Noah not being healthy in the past two seasons, I think this is simplifying things. First, his last injury was a shoulder injury which is far less severe than a leg injury. And the year prior to that, one of the seasons you say he was unhealthy, sure, he didn't put up his 2013-14 numbers, but that year he played 67 games and averaged 7ppg, 9.6rpg, 4.7apg, 1.1bpg in just over 30mpg. Again, I am not one to assume he will return to his old form, but if he gives us those numbers (especially the assist numbers in this offense), then he is a CLEAR upgrade over Lopez. And finally, I think people who poo-poo this Knicks offseason, for some reason, always conveniently forget to mention KP...you know, one of the better rookies to come along in the past 10 or so years. Why people never speak about a potential year 2 leap is a convenient oversight which allows the negativity over possible future injuries to lesser players.

I think Rose is sadly not much better than Calderon at this point. If he were Rose of 3 years ago, sure, he's good. But he's been on a worse decline, has been constantly hurt, is a poor shooter, poor defender, and the Bulls (a team mind you who wasn't good offensively) were better offensively when he was on the bench for the season. His backups were Hinrich and Brooks, who are probably close to Jose.

As for Noah, same thing. Lopez was and is a really good value contract who grades out defensively better than Noah has the last year or 2. I was a huge huge huge Noah fan, loved his heart and thought he deserved DPOY in 2014. But since then he's missed time but more importantly its how he's missed it. His history is one that looks like a gradual degradation of health, to which you're now paying 72 million over the next 4 seasons. So even if he's a slight upgrade this year, you need him to stay healthy the following 3 after that. I don't think he's a clear upgrade to current RoLo, and even if he is, he has to remain fully healthy for 4 years at twice the contract price.

Please though I'd invite you all to the trade board to continue. Would love the traffic.

We'd all prefer not to be perma bannded

[bondom34]

I fully understand where you are going with the advanced stats argument, along with your Noah injury assertion, but there are problems with this. First of all, while I see merit in advanced stats and RPM, it's a flawed stat is some ways. I am not one to tout Rose's potential MVP caliber comeback this year because I think that is a pipe dream, but can you honestly say that the Knicks are better off with Calderon as their starting PG over Rose? I think anyone who watched the Knicks all year would laugh at this suggestion. Just for reference by the way, Calderon ranked 24 out of 81 point guards in RPM, ahead of such scrubs as Kyrie Irving, Jeff Teague, and Avery Bradley. Patrick Beverly ranks 9th in RPM ahead of Lillard, Thomas, and Dragic.

As for Noah not being healthy in the past two seasons, I think this is simplifying things. First, his last injury was a shoulder injury which is far less severe than a leg injury. And the year prior to that, one of the seasons you say he was unhealthy, sure, he didn't put up his 2013-14 numbers, but that year he played 67 games and averaged 7ppg, 9.6rpg, 4.7apg, 1.1bpg in just over 30mpg. Again, I am not one to assume he will return to his old form, but if he gives us those numbers (especially the assist numbers in this offense), then he is a CLEAR upgrade over Lopez. And finally, I think people who poo-poo this Knicks offseason, for some reason, always conveniently forget to mention KP...you know, one of the better rookies to come along in the past 10 or so years. Why people never speak about a potential year 2 leap is a convenient oversight which allows the negativity over possible future injuries to lesser players.

I think Rose is sadly not much better than Calderon at this point. If he were Rose of 3 years ago, sure, he's good. But he's been on a worse decline, has been constantly hurt, is a poor shooter, poor defender, and the Bulls (a team mind you who wasn't good offensively) were better offensively when he was on the bench for the season. His backups were Hinrich and Brooks, who are probably close to Jose.

As for Noah, same thing. Lopez was and is a really good value contract who grades out defensively better than Noah has the last year or 2. I was a huge huge huge Noah fan, loved his heart and thought he deserved DPOY in 2014. But since then he's missed time but more importantly its how he's missed it. His history is one that looks like a gradual degradation of health, to which you're now paying 72 million over the next 4 seasons. So even if he's a slight upgrade this year, you need him to stay healthy the following 3 after that. I don't think he's a clear upgrade to current RoLo, and even if he is, he has to remain fully healthy for 4 years at twice the contract price.

Please though I'd invite you all to the trade board to continue. Would love the traffic.

We'd all prefer not to be perma bannded

I mean, if you're reasonable and not attacking people I don't see why you would be.