Who are (over/under) paid players ?

[Marko1980]

The average team salaries are 98,5M by team. I have used EFFICIENCY to calculate our REAL team value so far...
EFFICIENCY = (PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK − Missed FG − Missed FT − TO)

Our average team rating is 107,35 eff / game.
Our opponents team rating vs washington is 114,3eff / game.

The coef K of our team is 107,35 / 114,3 =0.939 => 93,9%

If we use efficiency as team quality we can conclude our team value = 98,5M * 93,9% = 92,5M

As exemple, by using same formula we have team values for :
New Orleans => 87,5M (their team payrolls is 100M so we can conclude they are overpaid).
LA Clippers => 128M (their team payrolls is 114 so we can conclude they are underpaid).

At this moment, our team is overpaid by 98,5-92,5=6M

Remember, Manihmi has a salary of 16M and if he plays as an 6M player there is some hope for Washingto to became a .500 wining team !

PLAYER EFFICIENCY / MINUTES => (eff/min)

Gortat = 188 / 310 => 0.606
Porter = 182 / 307 => 0.592
Morris = 138 / 297 => 0.464
Wall = 151 / 238 => 0.634
Beal = 74 / 219 => 0.337
Thorton = 55 / 179 => 0.307
Satoransky = 54 / 165 => 0.327
Burke = 39 / 125 => 0.312
Smith = 18 / 96 => 0.187
Nicholson = 29 / 75 => 0.386
McClellan = 22 / 56 => 0.392
Ochefu = 3 / 8 => 0.375
House = 1 / 1 => 1.000

Good players have more than 0.450 eff/min.
More minutes played is needed to have accurate stats. But we see from here Gortat, Porter and Wall are our more effective players ! Morris is solid and Beal need to play a lot better...
You can see from here how bad is our secondary unit so far.

Let's see now who is over or underpaid.

After 9 games our team efficiency is 987 pts and our team value by team efficiency comparaison is 92,5M …
To calculate player value we will use his efficiency / team efficiancy * team payroll. We are calculating player $ value by their team efficienty contribution.

Exemple Gortat has 188 (his efficiency) / 987 (team total efficiency) * 92,5M = 17,61
Gortat deserve 17,61M and is paid 12,0 so we can conclude he is underpaid.
With same formula we can calculate others players.

Porter deserve 17,05M but he is paid 5,9M. He is underpaid.
Morris is paid 7,4M but his value is 12,93M. Underpaid.
Wall is paid 15,8M. His value is 14,15M. Overpaid. (Underpaid if he miss less games)
Beal is paid 22,1M. His value is 6,93M. Overpaid.
Thorton is paid 1,3M. His value is 5,15. Underpaid.
Sato is paid 2,9M. His value is 5,06M. Underpaid.
Burke is paid 3,4M. His value is 3,65. Underpaid.
Oubre is paid 2M. His value is 3,09M. Underpaid.
Smith is paid 5M. His value is 1,8M. Overpaid.
Nicholson is paid 6,1M. His value is 2,71M. Overpaid.
McClellan is paid 0,5M. His value is 2,06M. Underpaid.
Ochefu is paid 0,5M. His value is 0,28M. Overpaid.
House is paid 0,5M. His value is 0,09M. Overpaid.
Mahinmi is paid 16M. His value is unknow so far.

As you can see Beal, Smith and Nicholson are not playing as expected. They are paid a total of 33,2 M$ and are worth 10,5M.

Some have criticized Burke. But as you can see he is contributing to the team more than expected by his salary.

Beal and Wall may have better value if they have more luck with injuries. But Beal is far away from an all star player we need. Wall is right when he says he is expecting from radley to be an all star player. 0.377 eff/min for an offensive player is a very bad performance. His actual value is around 7M but if he continues to shoot bad, he will play less minutes and his value will drop even more. If this is the case, he will not be able to help the team in the years to come and worse. He can't be traded.

All this can change with Mahinmi return. If he has a good eff/min as our 6th man it can have some positive impact to our team efficiency. Difficult to do worst than Smith & Nicholson so far. The team EFF will rise -> The team K will rise -> And player value will rase (PG,SG, SF) because of coef K, Gortat and Morris value will change a bit (less minutes) ->We will start wining more games.

Main problem to resolve : Beal, Nicholson, Smith
Hope to come : Mahinmi return. Less starting 5 injuries.

Paths to take: Fight and hope for playoff OR start tanking.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Start tanking?

Wall resting on b2bs, Beal sitting out with yet another boo boo.

Jason Smith plays.... need I say more?

[penbeast0]

The average team salaries are 98,5M by team. I have used EFFICIENCY to calculate our REAL team value so far...
EFFICIENCY = (PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK − Missed FG − Missed FT − TO)

Our average team rating is 107,35 eff / game.
Our opponents team rating vs washington is 114,3eff / game.

The coef K of our team is 107,35 / 114,3 =0.939 => 93,9%

If we use efficiency as team quality we can conclude our team value = 98,5M * 93,9% = 92,5M

As exemple, by using same formula we have team values for :
New Orleans => 87,5M (their team payrolls is 100M so we can conclude they are overpaid).
LA Clippers => 128M (their team payrolls is 114 so we can conclude they are underpaid).

At this moment, our team is overpaid by 98,5-92,5=6M

Remember, Manihmi has a salary of 16M and if he plays as an 6M player there is some hope for Washingto to became a .500 wining team !

PLAYER EFFICIENCY / MINUTES => (eff/min)

Gortat = 188 / 310 => 0.606
Porter = 182 / 307 => 0.592
Morris = 138 / 297 => 0.464
Wall = 151 / 238 => 0.634
Beal = 74 / 219 => 0.337
Thorton = 55 / 179 => 0.307
Satoransky = 54 / 165 => 0.327
Burke = 39 / 125 => 0.312
Smith = 18 / 96 => 0.187
Nicholson = 29 / 75 => 0.386
McClellan = 22 / 56 => 0.392
Ochefu = 3 / 8 => 0.375
House = 1 / 1 => 1.000

Good players have more than 0.450 eff/min.
More minutes played is needed to have accurate stats. But we see from here Gortat, Porter and Wall are our more effective players ! Morris is solid and Beal need to play a lot better...
You can see from here how bad is our secondary unit so far.

Let's see now who is over or underpaid.

After 9 games our team efficiency is 987 pts and our team value by team efficiency comparaison is 92,5M …
To calculate player value we will use his efficiency / team efficiancy * team payroll. We are calculating player $ value by their team efficienty contribution.

Exemple Gortat has 188 (his efficiency) / 987 (team total efficiency) * 92,5M = 17,61
Gortat deserve 17,61M and is paid 12,0 so we can conclude he is underpaid.
With same formula we can calculate others players.

Porter deserve 17,05M but he is paid 5,9M. He is underpaid.
Morris is paid 7,4M but his value is 12,93M. Underpaid.
Wall is paid 15,8M. His value is 14,15M. Overpaid. (Underpaid if he miss less games)
Beal is paid 22,1M. His value is 6,93M. Overpaid.
Thorton is paid 1,3M. His value is 5,15. Underpaid.
Sato is paid 2,9M. His value is 5,06M. Underpaid.
Burke is paid 3,4M. His value is 3,65. Underpaid.
Oubre is paid 2M. His value is 3,09M. Underpaid.
Smith is paid 5M. His value is 1,8M. Overpaid.
Nicholson is paid 6,1M. His value is 2,71M. Overpaid.
McClellan is paid 0,5M. His value is 2,06M. Underpaid.
Ochefu is paid 0,5M. His value is 0,28M. Overpaid.
House is paid 0,5M. His value is 0,09M. Overpaid.
Mahinmi is paid 16M. His value is unknow so far.

As you can see Beal, Smith and Nicholson are not playing as expected. They are paid a total of 33,2 M$ and are worth 10,5M.

Some have criticized Burke. But as you can see he is contributing to the team more than expected by his salary.

Beal and Wall may have better value if they have more luck with injuries. But Beal is far away from an all star player we need. Wall is right when he says he is expecting from radley to be an all star player. 0.377 eff/min for an offensive player is a very bad performance. His actual value is around 7M but if he continues to shoot bad, he will play less minutes and his value will drop even more. If this is the case, he will not be able to help the team in the years to come and worse. He can't be traded.

All this can change with Mahinmi return. If he has a good eff/min as our 6th man it can have some positive impact to our team efficiency. Difficult to do worst than Smith & Nicholson so far. The team EFF will rise -> The team K will rise -> And player value will rase (PG,SG, SF) because of coef K, Gortat and Morris value will change a bit (less minutes) ->We will start wining more games.

Main problem to resolve : Beal, Nicholson, Smith
Hope to come : Mahinmi return. Less starting 5 injuries.

Paths to take: Fight and hope for playoff OR start tanking.

Interesting formula but since there is a very small sample size involved so far this year, you might base it on the numbers this year plus discounted numbers from the last two years (say 100% of this year's minutes + 80% of last year's minutes + 50% of two years ago's minutes if available) to get a better predictive feel for what to expect this year and how the numbers stack up.

[payitforward]

EFF is a poor metric, Marko. Given what you'd like to extract -- potential win/loss record -- I think you would better off to find a metric with a strong correlation to wins and losses, which EFF doesn't have.

[Marko1980]

I don't think eff is a poor factor to calculate a team value. It is if you ignore opponent EFF as well...

EXEMPLE: A weak team playing fast may have better EFF than good team playing slow. This is why we have to take EFF of a team and EFF of their opponents.



EFF=(PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK − Missed FG − Missed FT − TO) / GP
TEAM VALUE = AVERAGE NBA PAYROLL*(TEAM EFF/OPP EFF)

This statistics are based on EFF this saison only.

[payitforward]

You can't correct a problem by compounding it.

If EFF sorts teams in order top to bottom, but that order doesn't have a high correlation to teams' actual win-loss record, then EFF isn't really telling you much about how good teams are. So your first number isn't accurate. Your second number (the average of all opponents' EFFs) is likely to be a better number but it's unclear how much better.

Hence, your complex calculation fails on the basis of its components. Your result has nothing solid as its basis.

Why not simply use win-loss record, then average win-loss record of opponents. Much simpler and much more meaningful.