How good of a prospect was Greg Oden?

[clyde21]

Reading some of his pre-draft stuff, the hype surrounding this guy was insane. He got comparisons to Bill Russell and David Robinson. nbadraft.net had him rated 106...for reference they had Anthony Davis at 101 and Joel Embiid at 100. That's insane.

Had he stayed healthy, how good would he have been today?

[penbeast0]

From what I saw, his healthy floor was what we saw from Hassan Whiteside the last couple of seasons. His passing out of the post, post scoring game, and ability to avoid fouls all needed serious work but he had the talent to do AT LEAST what Whiteside has done.

[bondom34]

To put a little touch of perspective just using his actual career, he was an above average player after multiple leg injuries who could just never stay on the court. He was more hyped than Durant from memory, and I think he was probably one of the most hyped post-Lebron guys I remember.

[eminence]

In my time watching basketball (since late 90's) the only more hyped prospects I remember are Duncan and LeBron.

[Ron Swanson]

He was probably the best "pure center" prospect of the last 15 years. But I don't think that a healthy Oden is nearly the dominant player in the modern NBA that people like to dream he would have been. Guys like KAT, Anthony Davis, and Embiid combined the same kind of all-world defensive potential with legitimate floor spacing and a complete offensive skill set.

He'd have closer to a prime Marc Gasol type impact, which is a tier below a top-5 or even top-10 "superstar" IMO. I just don't think he ever had the natural perimeter skill-set to maximize his potential in a current time where it's incredibly difficult for a more traditional, rim-protecting big to have a superstar impact.

[Dr Positivity]

Whether it was right or wrong, Oden was projected as a generational big man prospect like Shaq and Duncan drafts and a ticket to multiple championships. To put it in perspective in a column Bill Simmons (who was one of the lone KD pushers) basically said "What if he's just Patrick Ewing?" as an argument against him. Noting though that this was a time where centers were more valued than they are now, and Oden's lack of floor stretch was not rated as a big weakness. When he was picked 8 of last 9 titles were by Shaq or Duncan, 9th by Ben Wallace. It looked like you basically needed either Jordan or a dominant big man. There was a thought Durant is the sexy supermodel while Oden is the girl you marry (win championships). Good chance Durant is picked ahead if they came out in 2017. Oden by his 2nd year was putting up 23 PER, 4.1 BPM, .214 WS/48 despite already having surgically repaired knees, so he did everything he could to prove he was on his way to being that good. Offensively I'm not the biggest fan of his skillset (low post player, weak passer) but if he just overpowered teams to 20ppg while being an ATG defender, it would have been enough to be a superstar, although probably not as good as Duncan or Hakeem because of that more rudimentary offensive game. Overall Ewing seems like a decent expectation for his career.

[eminence]

For reference the other 3 players to win National High School Player of the year twice: Jerry West, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and LeBron James.

Whoops, mixed up one, it was Jerry Lucas, not Jerry West.

[RCM88x]

Dude would probably have changed the course of the league. He had the potential to be a legitimate 30ppg scoring threat, elite rebounder, defensively anchor and a respectable passer. His touch was just incredible for a big man and he was probably had the cleanest post skills of any big man prospect since Duncan.

Really says a lot about him as a prospect for him to basically be the consensus #1 pick over KD despite the injury issues. People like to rip on Portland for passing on KD, but at the time that wasn't really even a thought.

[Karate Diop]

Oden didn't have the range of say Davis, KAT or even Embiid but he would have eaten those three alive in the post...

[ISB]

He was probably the best "pure center" prospect of the last 15 years. But I don't think that a healthy Oden is nearly the dominant player in the modern NBA that people like to dream he would have been. Guys like KAT, Anthony Davis, and Embiid combined the same kind of all-world defensive potential with legitimate floor spacing and a complete offensive skill set.

He'd have closer to a prime Marc Gasol type impact, which is a tier below a top-5 or even top-10 "superstar" IMO. I just don't think he ever had the natural perimeter skill-set to maximize his potential in a current time where it's incredibly difficult for a more traditional, rim-protecting big to have a superstar impact.

Tend to agree. People point out his nice per-minute stats, but forget why he didn't play more minutes. Injuries was part of it, of course, but he also had serious issues with fouls and stamina. He's not that great of a fit in the modern game.

Don't get me wrong though, he was an excellent prospect with a superstar ceiling. I just wouldn't agree with the idea that he was completely destined to be an MVP candidate (or already there) if not for injury. He would have had to put the work in and develop just like everyone else.

[2klegend]

Without seeing his injury in hindsight, I would have draft him 1st again. He was that good in college.

[Scizzup]

Dude would probably have changed the course of the league. He had the potential to be a legitimate 30ppg scoring threat, elite rebounder, defensively anchor and a respectable passer. His touch was just incredible for a big man and he was probably had the cleanest post skills of any big man prospect since Duncan.

Really says a lot about him as a prospect for him to basically be the consensus #1 pick over KD despite the injury issues. People like to rip on Portland for passing on KD, but at the time that wasn't really even a thought.

he was never actually r projected to be a great scorer like Shaq/Drob. Most of his impact was defense and was being compared to Bill Russell/dwight type on defense. No way in hell was he putting up 30. a high volume scorer was pretty much one of the only red flags on him.

He deserved the #1 pick though because at that time it was still a big man league and he was really good

[Cactus Jack]

He was pegged to be the best defensive center to come out in a long long time. He wasn't as skilled on offense, but because of his size he would over power opponents & people thought he would eventually be good offensively & dominant over time. Living in Seattle, I got to see most of his limited playing time in Portland. He struggled early because of missing so much time & I think his biggest downfall which also played apart in his injuries, was his work ethic. I really believe that he lacked the drive/confidence to put it all together, if i'm being honest. Early on, he was very raw offensively. But, because he was so big, he would at times over-power others. Most of his scoring came on put backs & dunks. Another thing that held him back, due to not playing, was he consistently seemed out of shape. After the initial surgeries, he put on a bunch of weight & he never really seemed to get back to his college days. He also battled depression & turned to alcohol throughout his time in Portland. It really is a shame because coming out, he seemed a lock to be an all-time great player.

Watch on YouTube

[homecourtloss]

Dude would probably have changed the course of the league. He had the potential to be a legitimate 30ppg scoring threat, elite rebounder, defensively anchor and a respectable passer. His touch was just incredible for a big man and he was probably had the cleanest post skills of any big man prospect since Duncan.

Really says a lot about him as a prospect for him to basically be the consensus #1 pick over KD despite the injury issues. People like to rip on Portland for passing on KD, but at the time that wasn't really even a thought.

He tested out much more athletic than did Durant at the combine so there was that aspect of it as well.

I would say that in today's game (didn't take long for the game to evolve) people would value KD more. It used to be that a dominant two-way center put your floor at multiple conference Finals but that's not true anymore.

[RCM88x]

Dude would probably have changed the course of the league. He had the potential to be a legitimate 30ppg scoring threat, elite rebounder, defensively anchor and a respectable passer. His touch was just incredible for a big man and he was probably had the cleanest post skills of any big man prospect since Duncan.

Really says a lot about him as a prospect for him to basically be the consensus #1 pick over KD despite the injury issues. People like to rip on Portland for passing on KD, but at the time that wasn't really even a thought.

He tested out much more athletic than did Durant at the combine so there was that aspect of it as well.

I would say that in today's game (didn't take long for the game to evolve) people would value KD more. It used to be that a dominant two-way center put your floor at multiple conference Finals but that's not true anymore.

I think it's only not the case because the only true two way dominant C in the game plays in NOLA for a horrendous roster and organization, on top of always being hurt. There really aren't many elite two way C's in the game, in my opinion. And those that have the potential (1-3 guys) are on bad teams or always hurt.

To me, Oden is one of those guys who could have shifted the projection of the league, like I said. Especially on that roster in Portland he would actually have been in the position to be dominant on both ends.

Just look at what Dwight was able to do in Orlando, and I think Oden's potential was far higher than what Dwight reached in '10 and '11. He was much more skilled offensively and probably a bit better of an athlete, at least before his knee surgeries.

[homecourtloss]

Dude would probably have changed the course of the league. He had the potential to be a legitimate 30ppg scoring threat, elite rebounder, defensively anchor and a respectable passer. His touch was just incredible for a big man and he was probably had the cleanest post skills of any big man prospect since Duncan.

Really says a lot about him as a prospect for him to basically be the consensus #1 pick over KD despite the injury issues. People like to rip on Portland for passing on KD, but at the time that wasn't really even a thought.

He tested out much more athletic than did Durant at the combine so there was that aspect of it as well.

I would say that in today's game (didn't take long for the game to evolve) people would value KD more. It used to be that a dominant two-way center put your floor at multiple conference Finals but that's not true anymore.

I think it's only not the case because the only true two way dominant C in the game plays in NOLA for a horrendous roster and organization, on top of always being hurt. There really aren't many elite two way C's in the game, in my opinion. And those that have the potential (1-3 guys) are on bad teams or always hurt.

To me, Oden is one of those guys who could have shifted the projection of the league, like I said. Especially on that roster in Portland he would actually have been in the position to be dominant on both ends.

Just look at what Dwight was able to do in Orlando, and I think Oden's potential was far higher than what Dwight reached in '10 and '11. He was much more skilled offensively and probably a bit better of an athlete, at least before his knee surgeries.

Maybe it's because a center can no longer BE a two way dominant force in the league or at the very least, it is much harder now than before. As it was, there were only a few dominant offensive centers (we just didn't know it at the time). How many centers have posted an OBPM of +4 greater in a season? Very, very few. The league just hadn't figured out that there was a way to play more efficient offense than going through the post. Even someone like O'Neal didn't create the type of offense we see now because it's not possible to do so through the post.

Cousins is a good player. How many wings would you take over him? PGs? Lots, I'm sure. The game has changed and the value of the center is different and any team that's going to cernter its offense around post okay is not likely to be a title contender.

[RCM88x]

He tested out much more athletic than did Durant at the combine so there was that aspect of it as well.

I would say that in today's game (didn't take long for the game to evolve) people would value KD more. It used to be that a dominant two-way center put your floor at multiple conference Finals but that's not true anymore.

I think it's only not the case because the only true two way dominant C in the game plays in NOLA for a horrendous roster and organization, on top of always being hurt. There really aren't many elite two way C's in the game, in my opinion. And those that have the potential (1-3 guys) are on bad teams or always hurt.

To me, Oden is one of those guys who could have shifted the projection of the league, like I said. Especially on that roster in Portland he would actually have been in the position to be dominant on both ends.

Just look at what Dwight was able to do in Orlando, and I think Oden's potential was far higher than what Dwight reached in '10 and '11. He was much more skilled offensively and probably a bit better of an athlete, at least before his knee surgeries.

Maybe it's because a center can no longer BE a two way dominant force in the league or at the very least, it is much harder now than before. As it was, there were only a few dominant offensive centers (we just didn't know it at the time). How many centers have posted an OBPM of +4 greater in a season? Very, very few. The league just hadn't figured out that there was a way to play more efficient offense than going through the post. Even someone like O'Neal didn't create the type of offense we see now because it's not possible to do so through the post.

Cousins is a good player. How many wings would you take over him? PGs? Lots, I'm sure. The game has changed and the value of the center is different and any team that's going to cernter its offense around post okay is not likely to be a title contender.

I certainly believe that is true to an extent, but I also think that there is a lack of two way talents who are in the right situation to show their potential. Naturally post offense will probably be less efficient than perimeter offense, but it's not out of the question for a guy to be a good offensive player out of the post as long as they can score I different ways. Guys like Jefferson and LMA struggle because their games are relatively limited and they aren't athletic enough to play different roles offensively. Guys like Oden and Davis could/can, and probably would be very effective offensive players.

Cousins is a weird case though, he's a better player than his impact shows but has been in a toxic situation for much of his career (and has contributed to it).

Put Cousin on SA or Cleveland over Love/LMA and the landscape of the league certainly would change. But currently on bad rosters you can basically ignore them because their teams aren't good enough for them to even be a factor. Oden would have been on a good team, and probably wouldn't have been able to be marginalized. Especially from 2011-2015 when big man offense was still somewhat sought after and respected among contending teams.

[Hawk]

He was pegged to be the best defensive center to come out in a long long time. He wasn't as skilled on offense, but because of his size he would over power opponents & people thought he would eventually be good offensively & dominant over time. Living in Seattle, I got to see most of his limited playing time in Portland. He struggled early because of missing so much time & I think his biggest downfall which also played apart in his injuries, was his work ethic. I really believe that he lacked the drive/confidence to put it all together, if i'm being honest. Early on, he was very raw offensively. But, because he was so big, he would at times over-power others. Most of his scoring came on put backs & dunks. Another thing that held him back, due to not playing, was he consistently seemed out of shape. After the initial surgeries, he put on a bunch of weight & he never really seemed to get back to his college days. He also battled depression & turned to alcohol throughout his time in Portland. It really is a shame because coming out, he seemed a lock to be an all-time great player.

Watch on YouTube

Amazing video. He had really bad luck with the injuries and did some bad things, like punching the girl. I hope he can get back on track and live a happy life.

[Cyrusman122000]

VERY good as a prospect. He was more hyped than any other prospect in the 2000s decade other than lebron

[lolathon234]

Dude would probably have changed the course of the league. He had the potential to be a legitimate 30ppg scoring threat, elite rebounder, defensively anchor and a respectable passer. His touch was just incredible for a big man and he was probably had the cleanest post skills of any big man prospect since Duncan.

Really says a lot about him as a prospect for him to basically be the consensus #1 pick over KD despite the injury issues. People like to rip on Portland for passing on KD, but at the time that wasn't really even a thought.

Jesus christ, he was never a threat to average 30 ppg. The guy averaged 16 ppg in college, where he was so far physically superior to other centers that it was a joke.

Oden was arguably rated higher than LeBron as a prospect. Obviously not quite as hyped due to the center position being less sexy and incomparable to Jordan which was LeBron's claim to fame, but in terms of potential dominance, he was probably the biggest thing since Shaq. He was considered a sure fire elite defensive anchor ala Mutombo. He had some decent post moves and solid touch around the basket. His athleticism was off the charts for his size, very much in the vein of young Shaq, and was physically built like an NBA vet as an 18 year old....But obviously injuries derailed him. His ceiling was probably 22/14 with 3-4 blocks. Basically prime Dwight with a better attitude and a larger arsenal of scoring moves.

Interestingly enough, Oden's hype went down significantly after high school. He was considered the bonafide #1 overall pick and it wasn't even up for discussion prior to Durant's emergence as a freshman. Durant still would have likely been the #1 pick straight out of high school in most seasons excluding Oden/LeBron's drafts, but even with his HS accolades, he was seen as clearly inferior to Oden. Then Durant had literally the greatest season ever for a freshman, averaged 32/14 in conference play, and likely one of the greatest individual seasons in college basketball history(swept all 8 NPOY awards, a freshman had never won even 1 of them prior to KD) while Oden was somewhat of a disappointment. He suffered a broken hand which caused him to miss half the year and then offensively, he just wasn't as dominant as expected. His rebounding was also not quite as great as what was expected, IIRC Durant was actually the superior rebounder as a freshman. Defensively, on the other-hand, was a different story. The guy had multi-DPOY written all over him.

I think a taller Alonzo Mourning is probably the best comparison for his projection if everything went perfect. The Shaq comparisons are a bit much. #1, he was nowhere near as skilled as Shaq. #2, he actually had much better defensive instincts than O'Neal, which is where the Bill Russell comparisons came from. Everyone just brought up Shaq because of their sheer physical superiority in comparison with other 18-19 year olds.