Nikola Jokic 3pt big improvement by shot selection only

[THE J0KER]

7 matches are not perfect sample for big conclusions, but I think we have here one great example how deep analysis and scouting should be used in sport.

Nikola Jokic last season was the prototype of modern offense in the NBA for big guys. Everything connected with the offense is elite in Jokic case last season: great shooting with amazing FG% and FT%, great passing skills for a big man, and he is league TOP10 in offensive rebounds as well in a 2016-17 season. But there is one big exception in his offense which is below average of modern NBA standards, actually about the average if we look at centers only, but in any case not elite production at all from him. It is his 3pt shooting which is during 2016-17 just 0.6 made per game, with mediocre 32% percentage.

But if we take look more deeply 2016-17 Nikola Jokic 3pt shooting profile, we will notice that his case is extremely unusual!

Believe or not but for one 3pt sector, I will call it "the top of the arc" (look at blue rectangle), Nikola Jokic 3pt percentages are amazing 45% in 2016-17, even higher than of most prominent NBA 3pt shooter Stephen Curry which is almost equally good (between 38%-44%) from all 3pt range sectors.

So, Nikola Jokic is amazing from one particular "the top of the arc" 3pt sector, but below average from all others (look for example all left side sectors where he is even under 20% 3pt percentages). I hope it is not just coincidence, but someone from Nuggets stuff suggested him and strongly recommended to start shooting this season way more often from that "the top of the arc" 3pt sector and to reduce shooting for 3 from all other positions except in cases when he is totally open.

Since the start of this season, more than half (12 out of 23) of all Jokic 3pt attempts coming so far from this particular "the top of the arc" sector, from where he started to shot more than 3 times often than last season, and results are instantly much better. From just 0.6 3pt made and 32%, he rises to 1.7 per game with 52% 3pt percentage. OF course, such high 3pt percentage will not stay forever, but if he continues to shot much more frequently only from this "the top of the arc" sector, no surprise if he finishes this season at 1.5+ per game and 40%+ which would be an amazing improvement compared to do previous 0.6/32% season.

And all that can be done without any kind of real 3 pt shooting improvement, but just with a different shot selection as the effect of a planned change based on a pure statistical analysis!

[LloydFree]

He's Vlade Divac... but somewhere along the line he became a top 10 NBA player on RealGM.

[Cappy_Smurf]

He's Vlade Divac... but somewhere along the line he became a top 10 NBA player on RealGM.

That's kind of insulting to Vlade even IMO. Kid has a ways to go before he's there. Those kings teams with Vlade were some of the best passing teams you'll ever see. Beautiful basketball to watch. Such a shame they got jobbed against the Lakers.

[Goudelock]

Spoiler:

7 matches are not perfect sample for big conclusions, but I think we have here one great example how deep analysis and scouting should be used in sport.

Nikola Jokic last season was the prototype of modern offense in the NBA for big guys. Everything connected with the offense is elite in Jokic case last season: great shooting with amazing FG% and FT%, great passing skills for a big man, and he is league TOP10 in offensive rebounds as well in a 2016-17 season. But there is one big exception in his offense which is below average of modern NBA standards, actually about the average if we look at centers only, but in any case not elite production at all from him. It is his 3pt shooting which is during 2016-17 just 0.6 made per game, with mediocre 32% percentage.

But if we take look more deeply 2016-17 Nikola Jokic 3pt shooting profile, we will notice that his case is extremely unusual!

Believe or not but for one 3pt sector, I will call it "the top of the arc" (look at blue rectangle), Nikola Jokic 3pt percentages are amazing 45% in 2016-17, even higher than of most prominent NBA 3pt shooter Stephen Curry which is almost equally good (between 38%-44%) from all 3pt range sectors.

So, Nikola Jokic is amazing from one particular "the top of the arc" 3pt sector, but below average from all others (look for example all left side sectors where he is even under 20% 3pt percentages). I hope it is not just coincidence, but someone from Nuggets stuff suggested him and strongly recommended to start shooting this season way more often from that "the top of the arc" 3pt sector and to reduce shooting for 3 from all other positions except in cases when he is totally open.

Since the start of this season, more than half (12 out of 23) of all Jokic 3pt attempts coming so far from this particular "the top of the arc" sector, from where he started to shot more than 3 times often than last season, and results are instantly much better. From just 0.6 3pt made and 32%, he rises to 1.7 per game with 52% 3pt percentage. OF course, such high 3pt percentage will not stay forever, but if he continues to shot much more frequently only from this "the top of the arc" sector, no surprise if he finishes this season at 1.5+ per game and 40%+ which would be an amazing improvement compared to do previous 0.6/32% season.

And all that can be done without any kind of real 3 pt shooting improvement, but just with a different shot selection as the effect of a planned change based on a pure statistical analysis!

It's very interesting that he is so good at that particular shot, since the top of the arc 3 is the longest 3 by distance. Also interesting that he struggles shooting from the left, because as a right-handed player, he (theoretically) should have an easier time shooting from that side because his shooting shoulder/elbow would already be lined up with the basket.

Anyways, this is some quality analysis. The GB needs more of this kind of stuff.

[DaFan334]

He's Vlade Divac... but somewhere along the line he became a top 10 NBA player on RealGM.

That's kind of insulting to Vlade even IMO. Kid has a ways to go before he's there. Those kings teams with Vlade were some of the best passing teams you'll ever see. Beautiful basketball to watch. Such a shame they got jobbed against the Lakers.

In his second season, he averaged almost better numbers in every statistical category than Vlade had career highs of. He may not be a top 10 player right now, but he is definitely one of the better players in the league and has one of the most unique skill sets we have ever seen from a center. Both of these statements seem very ignorant and very far off.

[walk with me]

He's Vlade Divac... but somewhere along the line he became a top 10 NBA player on RealGM.

[THE J0KER]

Spoiler:

7 matches are not perfect sample for big conclusions, but I think we have here one great example how deep analysis and scouting should be used in sport.

Nikola Jokic last season was the prototype of modern offense in the NBA for big guys. Everything connected with the offense is elite in Jokic case last season: great shooting with amazing FG% and FT%, great passing skills for a big man, and he is league TOP10 in offensive rebounds as well in a 2016-17 season. But there is one big exception in his offense which is below average of modern NBA standards, actually about the average if we look at centers only, but in any case not elite production at all from him. It is his 3pt shooting which is during 2016-17 just 0.6 made per game, with mediocre 32% percentage.

But if we take look more deeply 2016-17 Nikola Jokic 3pt shooting profile, we will notice that his case is extremely unusual!

Believe or not but for one 3pt sector, I will call it "the top of the arc" (look at blue rectangle), Nikola Jokic 3pt percentages are amazing 45% in 2016-17, even higher than of most prominent NBA 3pt shooter Stephen Curry which is almost equally good (between 38%-44%) from all 3pt range sectors.

So, Nikola Jokic is amazing from one particular "the top of the arc" 3pt sector, but below average from all others (look for example all left side sectors where he is even under 20% 3pt percentages). I hope it is not just coincidence, but someone from Nuggets stuff suggested him and strongly recommended to start shooting this season way more often from that "the top of the arc" 3pt sector and to reduce shooting for 3 from all other positions except in cases when he is totally open.

Since the start of this season, more than half (12 out of 23) of all Jokic 3pt attempts coming so far from this particular "the top of the arc" sector, from where he started to shot more than 3 times often than last season, and results are instantly much better. From just 0.6 3pt made and 32%, he rises to 1.7 per game with 52% 3pt percentage. OF course, such high 3pt percentage will not stay forever, but if he continues to shot much more frequently only from this "the top of the arc" sector, no surprise if he finishes this season at 1.5+ per game and 40%+ which would be an amazing improvement compared to do previous 0.6/32% season.

And all that can be done without any kind of real 3 pt shooting improvement, but just with a different shot selection as the effect of a planned change based on a pure statistical analysis!

It's very interesting that he is so good at that particular shot since the top of the arc 3 is the longest 3 by distance. Also interesting that he struggles shooting from the left because as a right-handed player, he (theoretically) should have an easier time shooting from that side because his shooting shoulder/elbow would already be lined up with the basket.

Anyways, this is some quality analysis. The GB needs more of this kind of stuff.

The whole case is very strange, even bizarre for someone to have such imbalanced 3pt profile by positions (from amazing 45%+ to pathetic under-20%). But things are as they are in this case. It is based on a very relevant sample, two back-to-back full seasons (his 2015-16 rookie 3pt percentages per location are a literally copycat case of his sophomore last 2016-17 season which is shown in this thread).

When such phenom is once noticed, you can deal with 3 main strategies.
1) To do nothing, and hope that with time Jokic will improve his 3pt percentages from left (especially) and right
2) To force Jokic to much more practice 3pt shots from positions from which he is bad.
3) To force Jokic to shot from "top of the arc" often as it possible, from where his percentages are amazing for 3pt standards, and from all other 3pt positions to shot only totally open shots (maybe with an exception of that first sector from right close to center)

That third scenario is most pragmatic and efficient, and give instant results. Jokic started this season with more "top of the arc" 3pt attempts than from all other positions all-together, so I guess it can't be just coincidence. Someone from Denver stuff obviously gives him wise advice after good analysis of his strange 3pt case, so his 3pt issue becomes a weapon overnight just by using statistical reports.

This thread is my gift to all here who complain against advanced stats, and doubt in their usability

[THE J0KER]

And here is Nikola Jokic 2015-16 shot chart which I not present in OP, but like I already say, it is a copycat case of his 2016-17 3pt stats in terms of percentages from different positions/sectors.

His overall 3ptm% that season is 33% (32% last season), and you can see once again very good percentage from "top of the arc" and bad from other positions, especially once again pathetic under-20% percentages from the whole left side.

That bigger orange rectangle, which includes bigger than "the top of the arc" area (little bit upgraded from the center-right side), is actually court zone on which Jokic should be focused for his 3pt shots. If you put the same orange rectangle on his 2016-17 season shot chart, 3pt shooting percentage will also stay very high, around 45%. So if he becomes this season permanently to bombard opponents from that orange zone, threes will be added to Nikola Jokic impressive offensive skills as his newest big weapon, not a weakness anymore.

[Statlanta]

I like this thread. Percentages say he is as good a 3pt shooter as John Wall but this thread shows the benefits to a player's sweet spots or just opportunities as I believe his looks would come from an open Pick and Pop instead of Spotting Up.

I also see opposing teams trying to adjust to this(most notably in playoff time should Denver get there).

[SimonFish]

good analysis, OP.

question: if a player limits his shooting spots, that would make him easier to be guarded, wouldn't it?

[76ciology]

Reminds me back then of how Brett Brown utilized Spencer Hawes (back in 13-14 season) with the killer top of the key 3pt that made him look like a very good shooter. Hawes shot around 41% on 3s on 1.6mades per game.

An entire article regarding this
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sixerville/Film-review-How-Spencer-Hawes-has-spaced-the-floor-110713.html

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2014/6/29/5852886/spencer-hawes-player-profile-the-republican-the-mavs-need

[DaFan334]

good analysis, OP.

question: if a player limits his shooting spots, that would make him easier to be guarded, wouldn't it?

In a lot of cases that would be an easy yes but with Jokic, I don't think it is that easy because of his play making ability. If you keep the ball away from him at the top of the key by pressuring him with a defender there, he will most likely be able to get into the post and go to work down there, where he has a very high field goal percentage. If you guard him tight with the ball at the top of the key with generally your center of power forward, his passing ability can lead to very easy cutters to the basket and his ball handling skills can allow him to go right past you into the post without a big. If you try to match him up with someone small and quicker, he can easily shoot over you.

His offensive game really doesn't involve much in the corners and really is very tough to stop because if you focus on one part of his game, you leave yourself vulnerable for another strength. Limiting his use of his weaknesses is a good sign that he should continue to improve his efficiency and effectiveness. Its nice to see.

[mcmurphy]

As Joker said Jokic has improved the selection of 3P attempts taking this season 69% of the 3PA at the "top of the arc" instead of 37% of last year.

I apologize to Joker but I would like to move the point on another thing is changed in Jokic's game this season.

The thing that makes me angry is that like last season Malone is trying to modify Jokic's game to integrate it with other players. Last year was Nurkic and this year is Millsap.

Jokic shots < 8 ft
Season 2016/17: 512/854 (60% of all shots)
Season 2017/18: 25/85 (29% of all shots)

Jokic 3PA
Season 2016/17: 139/854 (16% of all shots)
Season 2017/18: 23/85 (27% of all shots)

Last season Jokic take 3 of 10 more shots inside the rim (<8 ft Jokic had FG of 66%!!)
This season has almost doubled the number of 3PA (with good results by good shot selection), as if he plays the stretch 4 and not Millsap.

Millsap shots < 8 ft
Season 2016/17: 387/972 (40% of all shots)
Season 2017/18: 46/89 (52% of all shots)

Millsap 3PA
Season 2016/17: 241/972 (25% of all shots)
Season 2017/18: 19/89 (21% of all shots)

Only stupid people do not learn from their own mistakes.