Post#7 » by BasketballFan7 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:20 pm
Awesome write-up by Ronnmac! That's tough to compete with. Here’s a go:
General First Impressions
My initial thought was that Ronnymac and I have similar squads. Not that the teams play similarly -- they don't -- but he and I both snatched one of the GOAT offensive anchors and filled out the roster with fit in mind. The rosters are filled out with cerebral players who play their roles. This contrasts with many other rosters that chose talent at the expense of synergy or depth. It's unsurprising that I like his roster.
But my second thought was that we have more talent, and are suited to take a more modern approach to the game. Pierce is a nice player but a meager second option/second round pick in this league, especially in light of seeing ’96 Penny and ’01 Vince – superior players – go at the tail end of the draft. His FGA/G isn’t low enough to warrant such a high selection.
I feel much the same with Billups, though he was a better value in round 3 than Pierce in round 2. It’s supply and demand, here, and we saw some Billups facsimiles go with the last pick in round 4 (Terry Porter) and the middle of round six (Mike Conley). That is, underrated do it all PGs that glue rosters together. Kyle Lowry is still available.
Then, we see Korver and Green selected. Sexy role players, but role player nevertheless. Grant was a good pick in round six, undoubtedly. Mason is a nice pick as well in this format, though not who I would tandem with Shaq. Miller doesn’t belong, and I love the professor. He’s 37 and is probably unplayable unless Greg Anthony is in the game, who I don’t have to play.
On my side, I hit for fit and value in each round. I considered Pip and Zo in round 2 and Rodman and Conley in round 3. Middleton earlier.
But don’t take my word for it. Let’s look at the last FGA restricted draft and compare it to this one.
Player – Pick # this draft – Pick # last draft – Difference
RonnyMac
Shaq – Round 1 Pick 3 – Round 1 Pick 6 – minus 3
Pierce – R2 P14 – R3 P11 – minus 13
Billups – R3 P3 – R4 P7 – minus 19
Korver – R4 P14 – R5 P13 – minus 15
Green – R5 P3 – R5 P6 – minus 3
Grant – R6 P14 – R4 P1 – plus 46
Mason – R7 P3 – R6 P4 – plus 17
Miller – R8 P14 – undrafted – minus 2
BBallFan7
Bird – R1 P8 – R1 P10 – minus 2
Manu – R2 P9 – R3 P4 – minus 11
Pippen – R3 P8 – R2 P11 – plus 19
Rodman – R4 P9 – R3 P8 – plus 15
Mourning – R5 P8 – R3 P10 – plus 30
Conley – R6 P9 – R4 P9 – plus 31
Middleton – R7 P8 – R5 P1 – plus 40
Anthony – R8 P9 – undrafted – minus 7
This isn’t scientific because posters in the last draft made plenty of mistakes just as we did. And I did it quickly so there may be slight errors. But it adds perspective. Ronnymac’s team feels sleek and realistic. Too realistic for a draft with so much talent available.
BBallFan7 Offense
The Elephant in the Room: SHAQ
Shaq wrecked Mourning. This isn’t really debatable. For their careers, Shaq averaged 30 PPG against Mourning and shot 57%. Mourning scored 21 PPG, not bad, but on reduced efficiency.
BUT BUT BUT these numbers are skewed by when they played early in their careers and later, post Zo injury (such as in 2003 when Shaq dropped 40 on Zo, and Zo scored only 11 PPG in his two post injury gaves vs Shaq).
Zo had a very clear two-year peak in 98-99 and 99-01. His metrics were significantly better during these seasons, including PER, WS/48, BPM, etcetera. These are the years Mourning won DPOY over Duncan and Mutombo. 99 was Zo’s best defensive season, he was 1st team all-NBA, and he was close, close 2nd in MVP voting behind Karl Malone and ahead of Tim Duncan.
To highlight his defensive dominance, Zo had a career best DRTG (93) and averaged an absurd 5.8 blocks per 100 possessions. Nobody in NBA history has done that while playing at least 30 MPG, at least as far back as BBref can search. Not DRob, not Hakeem, not Deke.
Zo didn’t play Shaq during my selected season, unfortunately. We don’t know how it would have went. it won’t tell us the answer, but we can look at the season before and after (97-98 and 99-00). In 3 matchups, Shaq had 69 points (23 PPG; 28, 17, 24). Not a big sample size, not the right year, but some information is better than none at all.
I need to be shorter in writing because I have something else to do and spent too much time on what I have written.
Based on the above – inflated Shaq averages because of post-injury Zo and young Zo, not playing against peak Zo, Zo’s outlier peak – I have doubts Shaq would hold his averages and crush Zo in this matchup.
The good news is that if Shaq does win heavily, it still won’t be enough to win the series. There isn’t enough dynamism elsewhere, not a glaring advantage. Horace Grant is a nice player, but he’s an awesome matchup for Bird to help off of and surprise Shaq with fast and unpredictable swipes from behind. Bird’s help D was fantastic, we know, he averaged 2 steals per game, and Grant can parade midrange Js to his heart’s content, and our long perimeter defenders plus Zo can deter him from easy layups.
Then there’s Rodman, who gave Shaq problems when assigned to him. Yes, Shaq put up decent number against Rodman squads, but those numbers include all the times Shaq dominated Luc Longley and Bill Wennington. Rodman was a stellar defender on Shaq.
And, really, can we not see how this would go over a series? Intangibly, Bird & Rodman is a disastrous matchup for Shaq. He’s going to get annoyed, irked, and off his game. I picked Bird and Rodman and the rest of my squad because of the nastiness (& intelligence) they brought.
Even getting the ball to Shaq won’t be easy. Middleton and Pippen are long, long-armed, and Bird will be hovering ready to pounce on careless passes. I don’t have time for it, but my entire team is set up to steal the ball frequently. Conley, Pippen, Middleton, and Bird combined for something like 8 steals a game, and Anthony and Manu have quick hands as well.
Other D matchups (will be brief)
Pierce being guarded by Pippen? A nightmare. Pippen is too long, too tenacious, too good, and too damn athletic. 1991 Pippen would smother any version of Pierce, and Pierce had already lost a step by 2008.
Conley is a stellar look for Billups. Billups is savvy, but him posting up in this environment isn’t a winning recipe, and strength is his biggest advantage over Conley. Conley in 2013 when he was younger than he is now was one of the league’s fastest players and one of the best defensive point guards out there. His impact stats were nasty.
Korver is nasty, but we’re suited to tail him. We have depth on the perimeter and a ton of positional versatility, so if we get blockaded by picks and have to switch out to chase Korver that’s no issue. Again – long armed, high IQ athletes all over.
But we’ll definitely attempt to avoid Bird being switched onto smaller players, even though Billups and Pierce aren’t the sort of dynamic athletes that make the disadvantage overwhelming.
The urgency to switch the matchup (Bird onto Billups or Pierce) isn’t there. Billups and Pierce were good shooters, surely, but will they be pulling up Harden, Curry style when they see no switch? With Conley, Pippen, or Middleton (or Manu) being so skilled, quick, and tenacious, that’s tough to envisage.
Likewise, Grant is no Ryan Anderson (or Bird). The urgency to switch comes when one, preferably both, the pick man and ball handler are threats to shoot from deep. Or, a skilled passer like Dray Green. Grant isn’t that. At best, it’s one of the two here, and again it’s tough to see Billups/Pierce creating enough space for them to create comfortable looks.
I won’t dive much deeper. No time. Already wasted enough. Green has to be stuck to close enough, though he’s even more streaky than Ginobili. Mason will be helped off of, not to say he’s inept but in this league he’s who you want to force to make plays. I don’t think Miller will get on the court, Conley/Manu would wreck him, and if he is we’ll step away and watch the offense burn. I don’t care that he hit 50% from 3 when it was a sample of 21 shots. He’s a 22% career shooter from downtown, and he’s not driving for anything other than floaters. Easy decision.
BBallFan7 Offense
We have a slew of players that played on slow offenses, but that doesn’t mean we have to play slow. Larry Legend is the main man here, and the 86 Celtics played at a pace identical to this season’s Warriors despite having so little shooting (relatively) and going through McHale post-ups. Conley has always fit with Memphis in spite of the fit, because he’s really suited for a faster game, and much the same could be said of Ginobili or Pippen. Mourning post ups wont be part of our offense unless it’s a glaring mismatch or the end of the shot clock, so that’s no concern. These guys played slow because it worked, not because they had to.
And that’s the case here. We’ll run in transition because we’re young (all starters + Manu are under 30) and have players that generate steals and are strong passers. We’ll shoot 3s in transition. And then, if there’s nothing there – we won’t force it, because the players are smart – we’ll settle down and decipher the defense.
The ball will be zooming from place to place, with cutting and screening off the ball because those are the sort of players we have. They’re all so versatile. We’ll look at matchups. Shaq’s defense isn’t a strength here, his rim protection not vital. We’ll circumvent that with backdoor cuts, the 3 ball, lobs to Zo (a dunk monster) when Shaq helps off of him, and the pick and roll. Oh, the pick and roll. Not really a necessary staple of our offense but the players can all do it, and Shaq will be spending a lot of time on the perimeter. Zo was such a team character, it’s hard to imagine him not buying in, and he’ll come out and roll hard for Conley, Manu, or even Bird. Big/ big pick and rolls, like you see Cousins and Davis pulling off as an example. Except Bird is a superior passer and shooter to Cousins and will let fly or hit Zo on the dive.
Unlike Ronnymac’s pick and rolls, there is an urgency to switch when Bird is involved. He’s too skilled a shooter (and, really, everything, he’ll find the pass or lane, whatever weakness you make) to not switch. Plus, Manu will pull up, Conley is too fast. Switching is necessary. And I’ll take Conley or Many on Grant any time, especially with finishers and passers elsewhere on the court. It doesn’t become straight iso on the switch. The Manu/Bird pick and roll is seriously ridiculous. Having two versatile players on the action is amazing.
Don’t neglect Rodman – he had an awesome offensive impact. He was a killer passer on limited opportunities, destroyed the boards, and set hard picks. And Ronnymac mentioned Zo/Rodman/Pip lack of spacing. It’s tough to see the three sharing the court often. Any two of the three should be sharing the court with spacers – Middleton, Bird, Conley, Manu, Anthony.
Zo has to change his game more than anybody. Post-ups don’t make sense for him here, or really in this offense, but again his personality and skillset make it an easy change to suggest. He was already super efficient in the low-efficiency 90s. He’ll be getting easy lobs & dump offs from Manu, Bird, and Conley, particularly when Shaq helps off. Bird was getting Parrish 2 easy dunks a game.
I don’t see the opposing team matchup advantages other than Shaq v Zo, which I went into depth on. His teams fit is good, but mine is as well, and probably better. And we are more talented, which shouldn’t be overlooked either.
FGA Restricted All-Time Draft
In My Hood, The Bullies Get Bullied
PG: 2013 Mike Conley, 1998 Greg Anthony
SG: 2005 Manu Ginobili, 2015 Khris Middleton
SF: 1991 Scottie Pippen
PF: 1986 Larry Bird, 1996 Dennis Rodman
C: 1999 Alonzo Mourning
