Post#9 » by trex_8063 » Fri Mar 2, 2018 11:35 pm
1st vote: Kawhi Leonard
I’ll be honest, I’m sort of surprised Kawhi is still on the table at this point. He’s probably the last player I feel somewhat strongly belongs on the list, and that’s in spite of me being somewhat of an outlier in how important meaningful longevity is to me. Consequently I just really didn’t think he’d still be eligible at this point.
I’m not sure if public opinion has drifted away from him due to his injury here in the present ‘18 season??? It certainly felt like it was more in his corner a year ago, so not sure if the present season is influencing people here.
penbeast mentioned (though later rescinded) a comment about the Spurs not skipping a beat without him, and I wonder if that's a [mistaken] view that's hurting him here. But the Spurs are hurting this year relative to last season. As I mentioned previously, Gasol, Parker, and Ginobili are all a year further into decline, and they got rid of Dedmon and Jonathan Simmons. But otoh, some of their young talents have made great strides this season (notably Kyle Anderson, Dejonte Murray, and Bryn Forbes), and they obtained Rudy Gay (though he's missed some games) and Joffrey Lauvergne to fill the void left by those changes (simply upping Patty Mills' minutes has largely replaced Parker's decline, too).
So the dip we're seeing by the Spurs this year is [imho] largely a result of Kawhi basically missing the whole season thus far.
And perhaps it's because the Spurs are still 4th in the West that people don't realize how far they've fallen; but they have come down quite a ways: last year they won 61 games and had a +7.13 SRS; this year they're on pace for barely 48 wins and are a +2.60 SRS. A -4.53 drop in SRS is nothing to sneeze at, especially when we consider that's ceiling raising, not floor-raising.
And it really shouldn't be surprising looking at the quality of player Kawhi's been in each of the last two seasons: collectively in '16-'17 he was a 26.8 PER, .270 WS/48, +8.1 BPM, +22 efficiency differential in 33.2 mpg. Was 4th in the league in PI RAPM last year (behind only Lebron, Curry, and -0.01 behind Draymond), and 6th in the league [in both PI and NPI] in '16 (behind Lebron, Curry, Draymond, CP3, and Durant). By all measures available, he was one of the very best players in the game (during a very top-heavy era, I might add).
Aside from Bill Walton, he's the highest peak left on the table. And while his longevity is lacking, it’s not non-existent: he was a solid role player right out of the gate in his rookie year. He was just about a borderline All-Star by his 2nd season, and only got better from there. By his third year he was a legitimately an All-Star caliber player (and won FMVP). By his 4th season he was legitimate All-NBA caliber. And then the last two seasons [as noted above] were legit MVP candidate stuff.
In fact, aside from Walton, Kawhi's arguable got TWO seasons that are better than any one peak year from anyone else left on the table, imo.
He's been scoring elite level volume on elite level efficiency, and ultra-elite level turnover economy (in light of combined scoring and playmaking). Add to that decent rebounding from the SF position and his defensive presence (2-time DPOY) and some big-time playoff performances.........well, his six seasons seem like plenty to award him a spot on the list.
2nd vote: ???? (EDIT: tentatively going with Walt Bellamy)
Here I’m less sure on who I want to go with. Some possibilities……
Walt Bellamy - Leaves something to be desired defensively, but a heckuva offensive man in the middle and entirely decent rebounder. And he provided that for a good long stretch, as he was more or less an ironman: missed just five games TOTAL in his first ELEVEN seasons, despite playing >35 mpg in 9 of those 11 seasons (>40 mpg in 5 of them); including one season in which (due to a mid-season trade) managed to play 88 rs games (a record I’ll wager will never be broken unless they change the length of the rs). Even in his 12th season he was still playing 37.9 mpg (missed an acceptable 8 games that year), and was still playing 31.7 mpg in his 13th season (was still a 15.2 PER, .107 WS/48, +0.3 BPM player in that 13th season, too).
Pen has in the past remarked that Bellamy “ate his way to mediocrity”, or something to that effect. I’ve never been clear on whether that was his choice of words, or quoting someone. But when a guy is still----statistically, per minute----an above average player in nearly 32 mpg in his 13th season (at age 34), and had a near All-Star caliber 11th season at age 32, and basically never missed games in his whole career…….idk, it’s collectively not very supportive of this “lazy” or “didn’t take care of himself” narrative.
Bells, in over 1,000 career rs games, averaged 37.3 mpg while averaging an estimated 22.2 pts/100 possessions @ +5.91% rTS, 15.1 reb and 2.7 ast per 100 possessions.
fwiw, wrt impact: his prime regressed WOWY is +2.9 (+2.7 for career), which is very respectable.
It’s hard to not give him serious consideration at this point.
Dave DeBusschere
Statistically, DeBusschere’s fairly underwhelming. He was a pinch too willing to pop up those mid-range jumpers for my taste, though that was to no small degree a by-product of era. He’s got range, for sure (have seen him fire away out to ~20 feet or so, even a quick release curling off a screen at the top of the key), and given he was usually playing the PF, that does provide a positive spacing effect; likely would fit better in a 3pt era. I’d be more comfortable with him (likely would have supported him earlier), if he were just a bit more accurate/efficient as a scorer (his FT% could be better, too).
But with DeBusschere, obviously his defense [and rebounding] is where the lion’s share of his value comes from. Widely credited with being one of the very best defensive forwards of his generation, he appears to exhibit versatility, physical play, and decent rebounding for a PF/combo forward.
Closest modern comparison is Draymond Green (but without the playmaking). Dave did his thing for 10 fairly consistent seasons, too (plus one irrelevant injury-hit season), and oddly seemed to hang up his sneakers at the height of game (his final season is one of his very best). Not sure if there was an off-season injury that went into that decision or what.
WOWY data (looking only at W/L column) is a bit inconsistent, though the huge jump the Knicks make in trading Bellamy and Komives for him is certainly in his favour:
WOWY
‘63: 34-46 (.425) with
‘64: 4-11 (.267) with, 19-46 (.292) without
‘65: 31-48 (.392) with, 0-1 without
‘66: 22-57 (.278) with, 0-1 without
‘67: 30-48 (.385) with, 0-3 without
‘68: 38-42 (.475) with, 2-0 without
‘69: Pistons were 11-18 (.379) [DeBusschere played in all 29] prior to trading him for Bellamy and Komives, 21-32 (.396) after the trade. Knicks were 18-17 (.514) before the trade, 36-11 (.766) after obtaining DeBusschere (he played in all 47).
‘70: 57-22 (.722) with, 3-0 without
‘71: 52-29 (.642) with, 0-1 without
‘72: 47-33 (.588) with, 1-1 (.500) without
‘73: 52-25 (.675) with, 5-0 without
‘74: 41-30 (.577) with, 8-3 (.727) with
Elgee’s regressed WOWY (looking at pt differential) rates him as an elite +5.9 for his prime (+5.5 for career).
I think I’m maybe trying to decide between these^^^ two very different players. But also on the table being considered are Joe Dumars (good all-around guard with solid longevity and a decent playoff resume), Shawn Kemp (amazing handful of years who allowed laziness and personal problems to erode his prime awesomeness, though a touch sympathetic story as to why he allowed things to slide), Marques Johnson (very very good----though perhaps never quite “great”----player with a career cut short by injury), Vlade Divac (another dark horse candidate?? Solid and long career of usefulness), and Mel Daniels (another short-career candidate, built around defense, rebounding, leadership, and accomplishments in an early ABA of questionable competitiveness).
George McGinnis, Jeff Hornacek, Cliff Hagan, and Jerry Lucas not far off either.
I’ll edit in my 2ndary pick later.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
