Vegas over/under win totals

[bwgood77]

Team Win Total
Golden State 68.5
Boston Celtics 57.5
Philadelphia 76ers 56.5
Houston Rockets 56.5
Los Angeles Lakers 52.5
Toronto Raptors 47.5
Washington Wizards 47.5
San Antonio Spurs 45.5
Oklahoma City 44.5
Minnesota 44.5
Utah Jazz 44.5
Portland 43.5
Denver Nuggets 43.5
New Orleans 43.5
Miami Heat 43.5
Milwaukee Bucks 42.5
Indiana Pacers 41.5
New York Knicks 39.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 35.5
Charlotte Hornets 35.5
Detroit Pistons 35.5
Phoenix Suns 34.5
Dallas Mavericks 30.5
Orlando Magic 28.5
Chicago Bulls 28.5
Memphis Grizzlies 27.5
Sacramento Kings 27.5
Atlanta Hawks 26.5
Brooklyn Nets 25.5

[Young gun 6]

Toronto, Milwaukee, Indiana and Memphis OVERS are just free money right now.

[DirtyDez]

Not sure what the easier bet is: Golden St/under or Brooklyn/over. Miami over Milwaukee is surprising too.

[SlovenianDragon]

Id take the over on Suns and Magic

[bwgood77]

I definitely think Indiana seems low, and then Memphis if they are healthy and don't tank. Maybe Nets and Pistons too. Yeah, it is strange the Bucks are so low, but I guess they have a few question marks...should improve due to coaching though if healthy.

[SlovenianDragon]

so based on this if the suns want to make the playoffs we need 44 wins? Ez

[ATTL]

I've never gambled on sports before, where do I go to place bets? Im pretty confident on a few of these.

[8on]

Memphis and Chicago are free money on the over. New York is free money on the under. Why on Earth is Washington at 47.5, and why is Detroit ahead of us?

Cleveland is high, too. I could cut that win expectation in half and be good with it. Don’t know how the heck Cleveland or Charlotte will be better than us.

[NTB]

I think Suns' win total is spot on. I expect 35 wins too.

[Bogyo]

Yeah, some of these are just flawed. Memphis one popped out to me as well. Healthy Gasol and Conley, and they are easy over, if someone else steps up too then they might not even need that.
Cleveland easy under, they will implode.

[Moochthemonkey]

Definitely over for the Clippers. I know they are irrelevant now that they've lost all three of the star players in less than a year, and the King has taken over the other side of LA, but they definitely get at least 1 win.

[bwgood77]

I've never gambled on sports before, where do I go to place bets? Im pretty confident on a few of these.

Well probably a sports book in Vegas....eventually they may have over unders at some of the online ones....and maybe they do...but I have bet through 5dimes before and they don't...and neither does bovada...they have championship odds and bovada has rookie of the year odds.

https://sports.bovada.lv/basketball

https://www.5dimes.eu/BbGameSelection.asp#

[Moochthemonkey]

btw, these odds don't mean anything now right? are the Spurs 45 wins based on the assumption that Kawhi doesn't return?
also, if a healthy IT signs with one of the bottom teams, it could very well mean 5-10 additional wins, elevating a bottom-feeder into a fringe playoff team.

Over:
Rockets: I don't see the departure of Ariza equating in -9 wins. This team is still built for the regular season. I have them at 60 wins.
Raptors: Raptors: -12?? This is another deep, consistent team built for the regular season (and are constantly underrated). They are virtually the same team as last year, and the East is overall weaker...while I think the Celtics/Sixers/Pacers leapfrog them in 2019 the Raptors still should be good for at least a low 50 win season.
OKC/Utah/NO/Portland : okay, there's mathematical formulas as to why many of these teams are rated lower than most of us anticipate, but atleast 1 team in this group is good for 50+ wins.
Indiana : Almost as if the projections were taken from last offseason. Indiana is the darkhorse of the east and is having a solid offseason, I'd be surprised if they didn't notch 50+ wins
Orlando : I predict this is where IT signs, and they get ~35 wins.
Memphis : Return of Mike Conley = +7 wins. Playoffs are more likely than just getting 28 wins.

Under:
Atlanta : They have no vets, Schroder doesn't want to be there, a lot of raw players, and they have a new, relatively unheard of coach. I predict 21 wins from them.

[bwgood77]

btw, these odds don't mean anything now right? are the Spurs 45 wins based on the assumption that Kawhi doesn't return?
also, if a healthy IT signs with one of the bottom teams, it could very well mean 5-10 additional wins, elevating a bottom-feeder into a fringe playoff team.

Over:
Rockets: I don't see the departure of Ariza equating in -9 wins. This team is still built for the regular season. I have them at 60 wins.
Raptors: Raptors: -12?? This is another deep, consistent team built for the regular season (and are constantly underrated). They are virtually the same team as last year, and the East is overall weaker...while I think the Celtics/Sixers/Pacers leapfrog them in 2019 the Raptors still should be good for at least a low 50 win season.
OKC/Utah/NO/Portland : okay, there's mathematical formulas as to why many of these teams are rated lower than most of us anticipate, but atleast 1 team in this group is good for 50+ wins.
Indiana : Almost as if the projections were taken from last offseason. Indiana is the darkhorse of the east and is having a solid offseason, I'd be surprised if they didn't notch 50+ wins
Orlando : I predict this is where IT signs, and they get ~35 wins.
Memphis : Return of Mike Conley = +7 wins. Playoffs are more likely than just getting 28 wins.

Under:
Atlanta : They have no vets, Schroder doesn't want to be there, a lot of raw players, and they have a new, relatively unheard of coach. I predict 21 wins from them.

Spurs are tough. They won like 45 or 46 this past year and really didn't have Kawhi but for a handful of games, and if they trade him, they should add talent they didn't have without him last year. They lost Anderson and are getting older so could get worse otherwise...but if they add like Saric and Covington or something that could plug the loss of Kawhi pretty well.

[Qwigglez]

Heres mine based on nothing.
Warriors 65 (under)
Celtics 60 (over)
Sixers 58 (over)
Rockets 58 (over)
Lakers 50 (under)
Raptors 52 (over)
Wizards 50 (over)
Spurs 44 (under)
Thunder 45 (over)
Wolves 43 (under)
Jazz 48 (over)
Blazers 44 (over)
Nuggets 41 (under)
Pelicans 43 (under)
Heat 45 (over)
Bucks 48 (over)
Pacers 43 (over)
Knicks 28 (under)
Cavs 27 (under)
Hornets 41 (over)
Pistons 40 (over)
Clippers 35 (didn't see where they were at)
Mavs 30 (under)
Magic 24 (under)
Bulls 27 (under)
Kings 27 (under)
Grizzlies 30 (over)
Hawks 24 (under)
Nets 24 (under)

Initially had the Suns at 34 wins, but I made a couple of changed and now they are at 36 wins! Yay.

[lilfishi22]

low to mid 30's sounds about right.

[kennydorglas]

LAL under sounds good to me.

[denial]

The suns only winning 21 last year makes 35 sound awesome and optimistic. But I am in homer mode.
The Lakers won 35 games last year. I think our squad this season is better in every way than that team.
Go ahead and put me down for 40 wins. yeah I know its ridiculous. Book it!

[lilfishi22]

If Booker played 20 of the 29 games he sat out on, we may have won another another 8-10? So that's already close to 30 wins alone on that sad team we put on the floor last season. With Ayton, more shooting from Ariza and Bridges (hopefully) and some more improvement from our young guys, I think we have a floor of 30 wins. Add in some big Booker games and the odd game where Bender puts on his big boy pants, that's another 5, maybe 8 wins.

So I'm still sticking to 35 wins but with a team with this much potential but still relative lacking in experience, the win deviation could easily be in the 10 game range. 45 wins isn't out of the question, but neither is 25, especially if we fall down hard because of the lack of talent from a playmaking standpoint and of course, injuries

[bwgood77]

If Booker played 20 of the 29 games he sat out on, we may have won another another 8-10? So that's already close to 30 wins alone on that sad team we put on the floor last season. With Ayton, more shooting from Ariza and Bridges (hopefully) and some more improvement from our young guys, I think we have a floor of 30 wins. Add in some big Booker games and the odd game where Bender puts on his big boy pants, that's another 5, maybe 8 wins.

So I'm still sticking to 35 wins but with a team with this much potential but still relative lacking in experience, the win deviation could easily be in the 10 game range. 45 wins isn't out of the question, but neither is 25, especially if we fall down hard because of the lack of talent from a playmaking standpoint and of course, injuries

Booker would have been good for 10 more wins if he played 20 more games? No, maybe a handful. We had a pretty brutal schedule to in. In the last 13 games he DID play, we won 1 game, against Memphis. In the 6 before that which he played, we won one against Dallas.

Our schedule was extremely tough down the stretch when he was out as well....most all against really good teams fighting for the playoffs.

I think we can improve a lot. I think mid 30s is do-able, and with Igor and our added shooting, defense, and Ayton, I could almost see anything....considering I watched that Hornacek coached team without a lot of talent win 48. Thinking of what Igor did with Slovenia, if things go just right, it wouldn't shock me if we were one of those final teams fighting for the playoffs either. This is one offseason it's tough to make a prediction...I'd probably stick with mid 30s but getting more than that won't surprise me at all.