Not Too Soon ;-) for Miami Off-Season

[gom]

As a Heat fan, I am humiliated by what we've put on the court in this series. It reminds me of the 2006-2007 season, to be honest, when the Heat were swept in 4 games by the Bulls in the first round. That team was 44-38 in the regular season and face planted against a Bulls team led by Ben Wallace and driven by young Luol Deng and Ben Gordon. Miami sucked edited out the more...um...colourful part of this metaphor --loserX, and in the final game could not even muster 80 points.

So, here we are, one season after a finals appearance, and the team is on the brink of elimination. As all of you likely know, no team has ever reversed an 0-3 postseason deficit (it's 0-140 iirc). This crap team won't be the exception. Moreover, it would not have been enough to reach the second round anyhow. If I, as an NBA fan, am pissed off, I cannot even imagine the disappointment of the FO.

Heads must roll, and Pat Riley has the blade of his axe against the whetstone right now. I hope so anyhow.

So, these are the players Miami has locked in.

Bam Adebayo (5/163. Rookie Max, expires 2026)
Jimmy Butler (4/141. 30% max, Expires 2023, PO on last season.)
Tyler Herro (3/11.5. Rookie, expires 2023, TO on last season.)
Precious Achiuwa (2/5.3 guaranteed. Expires in 2024. TO last two seasons)
KZ Okpala (3/4.2. mini-MLE. Expires 2022.)

The Heat also have two team options.

Andre Iguodala: TO of 15m.
Goran Dragić TO of 19.4m.

They control to an extent four other players.

2021-2022 RFA: Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, & Kendrick Nunn
2021-2022 Unguaranteed: Omer Yurtseven

UFA: Ariza, Bjelica, Haslem, Dedmon, & Oladipo

Therefore, all of these players can easily exit the team without effort:

Trevor Ariza
Nemanja Bjelica
Dewayne Dedmon
Goran Dragić
Udonis Haslem
Andre Iguodala
Kendrick Nunn
Victor Oladipo
Duncan Robinson
Max Strus
Gabe Vincent
Omer Yurtseven.

In other news, the Heat have finally paid A.J. Hammons the last of his dead cap, however Ryan Anderson's $5.5m are still out there to be paid. Hammons's dead cap is related to the super-wonderful signing of Josh McRoberts, who memorably tore up his jersey. Ryan Anderson's money is related to the trade that dumped Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington on Phoenix.

Picks:

Miami's next FRP's are not under team control.

* Houston controls the 2022 pick and may exchange either the Rockets or Nets pick for Miami's pick.
* 2023 pick is Miami's 1st round pick has been traded, first to the Clippers (to get rid of Hassan Whiteside) and then to Oklahoma City (in the Paul George trade.) It is lottery-protected in 2023 & 2024 & 2025. Then it is unprotected.

---

My gut reaction is to tear it down, but I can see the Heat rebuilding around Bam, even though he has been so disappointing. For better or worse, he is the Heat's franchise player at this point. I expect the Heat will talk to Butler and see what he wants to do. I appreciate what he did in 2019-2020, but I don't see the same drive. Maybe it's time to cash out while he can still return some assets to rebuild.

Some Heat fans will likely claim these thoughts are premature, and I am happy to take the um... heat for not showing up for my team. In my defense, I should mention they didn't show up first.

Running this garbage back next season is my worst fear. I'm afraid that will be the choice. We did this before with the 11-30/30-11 team if you recall. That was stupid.

So... do your worst.

[BlazersBroncos]

PDX - CJ, 2 FRP, 1 Pick Swap
PDX - Butler

Team X - ???
Team X - CJ

MIA - Butler
MIA - ???, 2 FRP, 1 Pick Swap

Now students, please tell me what the X stands for? No, seriously. Who has interest in CJ.

[Colbinii]

I like a Butler for Jaylen Brown+ trade.

[Godaddycurse]

Butler for GSW package was raised before. Hard to find a better rebuilding package since he is essentially an expiring

[MoneyTalks41890]

Is that 2022 swap protected at all? If not, then I do think Miami should run it back one more year with some tweaks. I'd sign Dipo for 1 year 2-5m as a placeholder on his bird rights. Then I'd make some more inflated one year offers and try to bring back DRob. Then after next year when the pick is lotto protected for 3 years start an actual rebuild.

[gom]

Is that 2022 swap protected at all? If not, then I do think Miami should run it back one more year with some tweaks. I'd sign Dipo for 1 year 2-5m as a placeholder on his bird rights. Then I'd make some more inflated one year offers and try to bring back DRob. Then after next year when the pick is lotto protected for 3 years start an actual rebuild.

I guarantee this will be unacceptable to the fans. Running this back is not ok, and we never should have traded for Oladipo. I have been consistent in this position all along, by the way, not that it would have made much a difference to have Avery Bradley & Kelly Olynyk on the court. The Bucks would have still mauled the Heat, and the FO would have been accused of doing nothing at the deadline. Still, I cannot see Oladipo being resigned at all tbh.

[Texas Chuck]

I'm starting by declining the options of Iggy and Dragic unless I've gotten back channel word that a superstar wants Miami and I need salary filler. Nunn and Robinson absolutely get QO, not bothering with Strus, not picking up guarantee on Yurtseven. Would keep all cap holds as formalities, but almost certainly going to dip into being a cap space team because I'm Miami and other than Dedmon not sure I want anyone back anyway. Maybe Ariza on a much cheaper number?

Buy a high 2nd from Orlando, OKC, or NOP and draft Joel Ayayi

Then spend most of the cap space on Lowry. Trade Okpala for Ross using the rest of the space. Re-sign Dedmon using the 120% rule or BAE if necessary. Room Exception on Ariza I guess?

Match on both RFA's unless teams get silly, but I don't see that.

Bam/Dedmon
Ariza/Precious
Butler/Ross
Robinson/Nunn/Ayayi
Lowry/Herro

Fill in with a couple veterans and a couple of young fliers.

IDK still feels pretty meh really. Probably need to turn one of those guards into a big somehow.

[eddieheatfan]

trade them all and rebuild, next season or two could be worse but that's for a better future's sake

[parsnips33]

Warriors would be happy to help Miami rebuild

[Scoot McGroot]

In other news, the Heat have finally paid A.J. Hammons and Ryan Anderson the last of their dead cap.
.

Uh, Ryan Anderson has another year on the cap

I mean, Indy still has Monta Ellis on the books one more year.

[gom]

In other news, the Heat have finally paid A.J. Hammons and Ryan Anderson the last of their dead cap.
.

Uh, Ryan Anderson has another year on the cap

I mean, Indy still has Monta Ellis on the books one more year.

oh man... you are right. I will fix on the op.

[gom]

Bam/Dedmon
Ariza/Precious
Butler/Ross
Robinson/Nunn/Ayayi
Lowry/Herro

Fill in with a couple veterans and a couple of young fliers.

IDK still feels pretty meh really.

Meh is how I feel about this too. I like the idea of buying a SRP. Not sure about the rest. I'm not on the Lowry train like some Heat fans apparently are. The distance between what the Heat must become and what they are is not Lowry sized. No offense intended to his stans but I'd like the team to rebuild younger.

[gswhoops]

Warriors would be happy to help Miami rebuild

Yeah, I can’t imagine Miami would want to pull the plug on Butler one year after making the finals but if they do, we’d be happy to oblige him.

The Butler/Draymond soap opera alone would be worth the price of admission. They’d either kill each other or be BFFs.

[Texas Chuck]

Warriors would be happy to help Miami rebuild

Yeah, I can’t imagine Miami would want to pull the plug on Butler one year after making the finals but if they do, we’d be happy to oblige him.

The Butler/Draymond soap opera alone would be worth the price of admission. They’d either kill each other or be BFFs.

Is that tenable offensively if they want to keep starting a center? I realize the hope is Klay is back at some point, but 2 non shooters and a center is tough even with Steph.

This feels better to me with Butler a Clipper and PG a Warrior.

[parsnips33]

Warriors would be happy to help Miami rebuild

Yeah, I can’t imagine Miami would want to pull the plug on Butler one year after making the finals but if they do, we’d be happy to oblige him.

The Butler/Draymond soap opera alone would be worth the price of admission. They’d either kill each other or be BFFs.

I think it would somehow be both

[gswhoops]

Warriors would be happy to help Miami rebuild

Yeah, I can’t imagine Miami would want to pull the plug on Butler one year after making the finals but if they do, we’d be happy to oblige him.

The Butler/Draymond soap opera alone would be worth the price of admission. They’d either kill each other or be BFFs.

Is that tenable offensively if they want to keep starting a center? I realize the hope is Klay is back at some point, but 2 non shooters and a center is tough even with Steph.

This feels better to me with Butler a Clipper and PG a Warrior.

Probably not, but Jimmy is one of my favorite non-Warriors in the league so I want to pretend it would work

[parsnips33]

Warriors would be happy to help Miami rebuild

Yeah, I can’t imagine Miami would want to pull the plug on Butler one year after making the finals but if they do, we’d be happy to oblige him.

The Butler/Draymond soap opera alone would be worth the price of admission. They’d either kill each other or be BFFs.

Is that tenable offensively if they want to keep starting a center? I realize the hope is Klay is back at some point, but 2 non shooters and a center is tough even with Steph.

This feels better to me with Butler a Clipper and PG a Warrior.

They would absolutely need a stretch 5 with Butler, unless they start Dray at center for the whole season which just seems like putting too much grind on him for a whole regular season. But if we could get somebody like Baynes or Theis when they would stretch out in Boston, I think it could work

But Steph/Klay/Bazemore (or whoever)/Butler/Draymond would be a nasty lineup

[Texas Chuck]

Bam/Dedmon
Ariza/Precious
Butler/Ross
Robinson/Nunn/Ayayi
Lowry/Herro

Fill in with a couple veterans and a couple of young fliers.

IDK still feels pretty meh really.

Meh is how I feel about this too. I like the idea of buying a SRP. Not sure about the rest. I'm not on the Lowry train like some Heat fans apparently are. The distance between what the Heat must become and what they are is not Lowry sized. No offense intended to his stans but I'd like the team to rebuild younger.

Yeah I agree the delta is bigger than Lowry too. I chose to just go get the best guy and try and be as good as possible with Butler/Riley ages factored in. But I'd agree overall it would be smarter to think longer term. I considered a John Collins bid as opposed to Lowry but don't exactly love that either.

Tough spot. Miami, Toronto, and Dallas all did the smart thing and kept the Giannis window open, And now that he's closed there is no obvious path. Dallas probably has to just run it back and be smart with the MLE. Toronto either goes short-term with Lowry themselves or faces similar choices as Miami and I think they should consider dealing Siakam/FVV and re-tooling.

Stupid Giannis. And of course Dallas backup plan was Jrue and he wrecked that too....

[Mavrelous]

I can't think of a single scenario where it makes sense to trade BAM, his perimeter defense off the switch is simply unparalleled, ths is an extremely hot commodity.
Tear it down? Depends on how bad the situation with Butler is, but you have the big and the guard to build upon, the rest is much easier to fill.

[zimpy27]

Butler on the Knicks with his old pal Thibs and the gang could be interesting. Plus if they pickup Lowry.

They have a bevy of picks and some nice young players to trade.