Why Are 3-0 Comebacks Impossible?

[Wammy Giveaway]

We just saw the Clippers prevent a 3-0 lead and automatic series win by the Mavericks. Thanks to this, Clippers have might a chance to come back and steal the series win. How so? 2-0 comebacks now have these outcomes:

1. Win four straight.
2. Win three, the opponent pulls off a desperation tie, and Game 7 decides it all
3. Tie the series to make it a best of 3 starting with Game 5
4. Pull off a 3-1 comeback of their own

This goes to show that 2-0 comebacks are much more manageable than 3-0 comebacks, and the reason why 3-1 comebacks have not been uncommon as of late. 2-0 comeback have also been proven to rob a team's confidence because they squandered the chance at a 3-0 lead, becoming something of a psychological tactic.

My question remains: why are 3-0 comebacks impossible?

[Jcity08]

Its not impossible, just highly improbable.

[ANTETOKOUNBROS]

They aren't. Just highly improbable. When the first one happens, we will be able to attach a probability.

[FreeThrowLine]

They’re not impossible

Are you asking us to explain why it’s easier to come back from 0-2 than 0-3?

Does that need an explanation?

[picc]

Because if a team is better than you by enough of a margin to win three straight games, they logically cannot be worse than you by enough of a margin to lose four straight.

[Pablo Escobar]

Players are usually booking their vacation once it hits 3-0 lol.

[baldur]

because it is easier to beat an opponent that you already beat 3 times than beating an opponent 4 times that you never beat before. just some simple statistics.

[JoeyLightYears]

A 3-0 comeback requires you to win twice on the road against a team that is playing a lot better than you. HCA is a bigger deal in the NBA than in any other league so it makes sense that it hasn't happened here yet.

[Catchall]

Because the team that's up 3-0 is the superior team. Maybe if there is some major injury, that could turn a 3-0 series.

[Mavrelous]

Mavs almost blew 3-0 lead against the Blazers in the Dirk-Nash-Finley era, it went to game 7, that's the closest one I remember.

[GSP]

Most of the 0-3 stats were before the 3pt boom

the 3pt shot changes everything and makes Hca much weaker than it used to be

look at how many 3-1 comebacks weve seen in just the past 5 seasons.

I feel we're gonna see the first 0-3 comeback very soon and then a few will follow

[MrBigShot]

Because the teams that go down 0-3 virtually never have the talent to win the series in the first place.

[falcolombardi]

imagine two teams were virtually equal to each other enough that their games are an actual 50-50 call

the chance one team loses that coinflip 4 times in a row is 6.25% or 1 in 16....


now take that 1 in 16 chance and consider the team that is up 3-0 is likely a lot better than their rival

winning four in a row vs a peer team is hard enough. doing it to a better team is near imposible

[dockingsched]

Most of the 0-3 stats were before the 3pt boom

the 3pt shot changes everything and makes Hca much weaker than it used to be

look at how many 3-1 comebacks weve seen in just the past 5 seasons.

I feel we're gonna see the first 0-3 comeback very soon and then a few will follow

Those 3-1 comebacks are usually by the higher seeded team that finally decided to wake up. How often had the higher seeded team gone down 3-0?

[illuminati666]

Mark my words, there will be one in the next 3 years

[TheDavinciCHODE]

Is this really a topic?

In the NBA, the first team to win 4 games in a series wins the series. So you tell me why a team up 3-0 usually wins.

It's numbers.

"Hey, why is it harder to save $1,000,000 than it is to save $1,000? I got to $1,000 pretty easily, but like IDK I'm just not getting to $1,000,000. Any tips?".

Aside from being a strictly numbers question, another reason is sample bias. Teams up 3-0 always win because to get up 3-0, you have to be the better team. So we've only ever seen the worse team down 3-0. The better team usually wins.

Hypothetically, say you're the Nets, if KD, Harden, and Kyrie sat out 3 games and their oppnent went up 3-0, then they came back for game 4. They could easily rattle off 4 straight.

So yeah.

1) Numbers and things like that

2) If you're up 3-0 then you're the better team.

[Roscoe Sheed]

Because the team that's up 3-0 is the superior team. Maybe if there is some major injury, that could turn a 3-0 series.

that's just what I was thinking- if a team sustains a major injury to a key player, they could certainly blow a 3-0 lead. That just hasn't happened yet.

Also, as mentioned when it does get to a game 7, they team that had a 3-0 lead has a huge amount of pressure on them. In both situations I can remember- Denver vs. Utah in '94 and the aforementioned Blazers vs. Mavs in '03, they (Utah and Dallas) were obviously able to overcome the pressure, but if it got really close at the end it could be intense.

[Jasen777]

Mavs almost blew 3-0 lead against the Blazers in the Dirk-Nash-Finley era, it went to game 7, that's the closest one I remember.

Both teams played hard.

[Roscoe Sheed]

Mark my words, there will be one in the next 3 years

I wouldn't be surprised- especially with the somewhat random nature of 3 point shooting- a previously hot team could go cold and lose their momentum

[Lockdown504090]

It’s probably never going to happen unless it’s due to injury, or just the most incompetent coaching every by one side. There are so many ways to adjust and win, it’s hard to imagine a team not being able to find the right combinations 4 times in a row after winning three times in a row