1994-‘96 David Robinson or 2019-‘21 Giannis Antetokounmpo

[Matt15]

Who would you rather have as your best player for three years?

[dygaction]

Don't let the numbers below fool you. DRob easily, because he had a worse team. Wait, DRob's Spurs actually had 0.1% higher winning rate during the regular seasons?

Giannis: 3x 1st all-nba, 3x 1st all-defense, 2x MVP, 1 ring, 1x FMVP, 1 DPoY, 7x playoff series wins
D__Rob: 2x 1st all-nba, 2x 1st all-defense, 1x MVP, 0 ring, 0x FMVP, 0 DPoY, 3x playoff series wins

Giannis Regular 19-21: 28.4/12.4/5.8a; 30.6PER, .630 TS%, +10.2BPM; Team .714 W/L%
D__Rob regular 94-96: 27.5/11.2/3.6a; 29.8PER, .589 TS%, +10.0BPM; Team .715 W/L%

Giannis playoffs 19-21: 27.9/12.8/5.2a; 27.9PER, .592 TS%, +9.6BPM
D__Rob playoffs 94-96: 24.0/11.1/2.9a; 24.6PER, .538 TS%, +6.3BPM

[HeartBreakKid]

Don't let the numbers below fool you. DRob easily, because he had a worse team. Wait, DRob's Spurs actually had 0.1% higher winning rate during the regular seasons?

Giannis: 3x 1st all-nba, 3x 1st all-defense, 2x MVP, 1 ring, 1x FMVP, 1 DPoY, 7x playoff series wins
D__Rob: 2x 1st all-nba, 2x 1st all-defense, 1x MVP, 0 ring, 0x FMVP, 0 DPoY, 3x playoff series wins

Giannis Regular 19-21: 28.4/12.4/5.8a; 30.6PER, .630 TS%, +10.2BPM; Team .714 W/L%
D__Rob regular 94-96: 27.5/11.2/3.6a; 29.8PER, .589 TS%, +10.0BPM; Team .715 W/L%

Giannis playoffs 19-21: 27.9/12.8/5.2a; 27.9PER, .592 TS%, +9.6BPM
D__Rob playoffs 94-96: 24.0/11.1/2.9a; 24.6PER, .538 TS%, +6.3BPM

Look up what a strawman argument is.

And given your 2nd sentence, you should look up what a circular argument is as well.

[dygaction]

Don't let the numbers below fool you. DRob easily, because he had a worse team. Wait, DRob's Spurs actually had 0.1% higher winning rate during the regular seasons?

Giannis: 3x 1st all-nba, 3x 1st all-defense, 2x MVP, 1 ring, 1x FMVP, 1 DPoY, 7x playoff series wins
D__Rob: 2x 1st all-nba, 2x 1st all-defense, 1x MVP, 0 ring, 0x FMVP, 0 DPoY, 3x playoff series wins

Giannis Regular 19-21: 28.4/12.4/5.8a; 30.6PER, .630 TS%, +10.2BPM; Team .714 W/L%
D__Rob regular 94-96: 27.5/11.2/3.6a; 29.8PER, .589 TS%, +10.0BPM; Team .715 W/L%

Giannis playoffs 19-21: 27.9/12.8/5.2a; 27.9PER, .592 TS%, +9.6BPM
D__Rob playoffs 94-96: 24.0/11.1/2.9a; 24.6PER, .538 TS%, +6.3BPM

Look up what a strawman argument is.

And given your 2nd sentence, you should look up what a circular argument is as well.

I know, as a DRob stan, I feel I am cornered

[migya]

Robinson easily.

[Dutchball97]

D-Rob has the edge in terms of regular season but for the post-season it is Giannis by a mile. So overall I'd prefer Giannis.

[No-more-rings]

I'd take Robinson slightly, Giannis is better offensively especially looking at this year but I consider Drob to still be considerably better defensively. Frankly i think both struggled against elite defenses in the playoffs.

[sansterre]

I'd take Robinson slightly, Giannis is better offensively especially looking at this year but I consider Drob to still be considerably better defensively. Frankly i think both struggled against elite defenses in the playoffs.

This position is fairly hypothetical, since Giannis over the last three years hasn't really played many elite defenses.

In terms of scoring resilience, they almost look identical. And I have a hunch that after my modifiers Robinson might come out slightly ahead. But there are other factors.

In the regular season Giannis' TO% is 3.1% higher, but in the playoffs Giannis' is actually 0.2% lower. I don't know if it's because he's calling his own number more or what but his turnovers drop considerably in the postseason. That alone seems to explain a lot of their postseason OBPM divergence.

Also, does anyone know if BPM is opposing defense-adjusted? I'm not seeing any sign of it on the explanation page.

[Owly]

Don't let the numbers below fool you. DRob easily, because he had a worse team. Wait, DRob's Spurs actually had 0.1% higher winning rate during the regular seasons?

Giannis: 3x 1st all-nba, 3x 1st all-defense, 2x MVP, 1 ring, 1x FMVP, 1 DPoY, 7x playoff series wins
D__Rob: 2x 1st all-nba, 2x 1st all-defense, 1x MVP, 0 ring, 0x FMVP, 0 DPoY, 3x playoff series wins

Giannis Regular 19-21: 28.4/12.4/5.8a; 30.6PER, .630 TS%, +10.2BPM; Team .714 W/L%
D__Rob regular 94-96: 27.5/11.2/3.6a; 29.8PER, .589 TS%, +10.0BPM; Team .715 W/L%

Giannis playoffs 19-21: 27.9/12.8/5.2a; 27.9PER, .592 TS%, +9.6BPM
D__Rob playoffs 94-96: 24.0/11.1/2.9a; 24.6PER, .538 TS%, +6.3BPM

Surely a sincere, genuinely pro-Robinson argument wouldn't be that they were a worse team with the star player but that the supporting cast was worse.

The best proxy for that would be looking at the off in their on-off numbers.

I'll trust the on-off calculations in the "regressed RAPM" spreadsheets that someone on here attempted to estimate RAPM based off the plus minus numbers Fpliii shared. I guess I could check, and -given possessions data will be estimated - the numbers won't be quite perfect anyhow.

94: on +9.4, net 19.9, off -10.5
95: on +10.7, net 19.8, off -9.1
96: on+10.7, net 16.6, off -5.9

using basketball-reference's on and on-off (i.e. net) to calculate off
19 on 12.1, net 8.8, off 3.3
20: 15.8, 12.7, 3.1
21: 8.4, 6.7, 1.7

You will notice quite the gap between even Robinson's team's best performance with him off and Giannis's team's worst.

Thus, at first glance and with the acknowledgement that this is not a perfect measure of surrounding players, this gives the impression that noting the Spurs success would be to count Robinson's larger impact and higher minutes totals against him.

FWIW, too I would argue SRS as a better, more nuanced tool for measuring teams and by that account the Bucks are a touch over 2 points per game better by a slightly conservative reckoning.
Spurs average SRS: 5.643333333
Bucks average SRS: 7.673333333
I say conservative because using the average of their yearly SRSes, their '19 campaign which is above that average, is technically being underweighted (it's 82 games, being counted the same as 73 or 72 games).

[trex_8063]

Giannis Regular 19-21: 28.4/12.4/5.8a; 30.6PER, .630 TS%, +10.2BPM; Team .714 W/L%
D__Rob regular 94-96: 27.5/11.2/3.6a; 29.8PER, .589 TS%, +10.0BPM; Team .715 W/L%

Giannis playoffs 19-21: 27.9/12.8/5.2a; 27.9PER, .592 TS%, +9.6BPM
D__Rob playoffs 94-96: 24.0/11.1/2.9a; 24.6PER, .538 TS%, +6.3BPM

I'm leery of using per game data between teams that have like an ~11% difference in pace.
I'm also leery of using raw TS% when there's a nearly 3% difference betweeen the two 3-year samples in question.
And lastly, I'm leery of citing rate metrics (like PER and BPM) without citing mpg.


Below I'm going to look at their respective Per 100 possession numbers for the rs......it's a not a perfect "fix" or calibration, as there are also era differences (e.g. higher shooting efficiency in '19-'21 means higher Pts/100 on average; also a greater emphasis on transition defense means less offensive rebounding [and less competition for defensive ones]--->this will skew DRob's offensive rebounding upwards compared to G.A., but skew his defensive rebounding slightly down; the relative disadvantages Robinson faced on offense [worse spacing, officiating/rules] also arguably potentiated his defensive impact); but at least it's a partial calibration.

I'll also cite rTS%, as well as mpg (as per 100 poss stats are also rate-metrics)....

David Robinson '94-'96 (rs) Per 100 Poss [offensive stats]
37.0 pts @ +5.13% rTS, 4.4 oreb, 4.8 ast, 3.8 tov while playing 38.4 mpg

Giannis Antetokounmpo '19-'21 (rs) Per 100 Poss [offensive stats]
41.1 pts @ +6.46% rTS, 2.9 oreb, 8.4 ast, 5.2 tov while playing 32.1 mpg

So Giannis scores a bit more per 100 on slightly better shooting efficiency and accrues substantially more assists.
otoh, he also gets 1.5 fewer Orebs per 100, and 1.4 more turnovers.
And all of these relative production/efficiency rates occur while Giannis is playing more than 6 fewer mpg.

So whatever edge [if present] Giannis has in terms of offensive production and efficiency rates during the rs is certainly fairly small.......and that's before factoring in that Robinson will provide his production and efficiency level for an additional 13% of the game (which likely evaporates it entirely for me).


As far as defensive box-related rate stats (fwiw)....
David Robinson '94-'96 (rs) Per 100 Poss [defensive stats]
10.8 dreb, 2.1 stl, 4.4 blk, 4.0 pf

Giannis Antetokounmpo '19-'21 (rs) Per 100 Poss [defensive stats]
15.0 dreb, 1.7 stl, 1.8 blk, 4.4 pf

So Giannis has a substantial edge in defensive rebounding rate, though trails in steals, blocks, and personal foul rate (by more than double where blocks are concerned). And again, in >6 fewer mpg.


How this shakes out in those summary [mostly rate] advanced metrics.....
David Robinson '94-'96 (rs)
29.8 PER, .286 WS/48, +10.0 BPM, +22 net rating in 38.4 mpg

Giannis Antetokounmpo '19-'21 (rs)
30.6 PER, .273 WS/48, +10.2 BPM, +19 net rating in 32.1 mpg


I'll allow Giannis may well be better in the playoffs than Robison [though sansterre says he's got some tidbits to share on the topic of resliency]; I'm not sure.

But I think the above points to a small but clear edge to Robinson in the rs; EDIT: especially after looking at his rs on/off and associated AuPM for those years---->where he is a complete outlier in a league that had peak Olajuwon, prime Shaq, prime Mailman, prime Barkley, prime Pippen, one year of prime Jordan, etc.
And especially considering Robinson missed a grand total of 3 rs games and 0 playoff games in that span, while Giannis missed 31 rs games and 3 [4, really] playoff games in that span........I think a case made in Robinson's favour still carries a lot of weight.

I'll say this much [which is really to the credit of BOTH players]: anyone who says "easily" [in either direction] is over/under-selling one or the other [or potentially both].

[Ron Swanson]

Again, I don't have much desire to entertain an argument that basically penalizes Giannis for the era he plays in (we're going to have to accept the "load management" era for what it is). I also don't see how you can look at per-100 metrics and conclude that D-Rob has any case over Giannis offensively. A 4.1 PP-100 difference with +1-2 TS efficiency is literally the difference between Shaq and Patrick Ewing. Calling it "small" is incredible hyperbole.

[falcolombardi]

i am not sure how is the best way to evaluate minutes played difference between players from different eras

after all, is hard to imagine robinson would be olaying 40 mins a game in 2021, or giannis playing only 32 mins a game in the 90's

whether this is a injury avoiding measured only, or there is a possibility the modern game is more physically taxing, the result is that if they switched eras amd teams they probably switch minutes played

if that happened giannis may be less effective on average in extra minutes but that is compensated by playing more, viceversa for robinson

[VanWest82]

Even if you buy in to DRob's supposed goat regular season APM (where are these numbers btw), Giannis's evolution into a true on ball / off ball threat this playoffs makes this conversation a non-starter. The entire argument against DRob is he wasn't skilled enough to be a #1 on a title winning team. Giannis just showed he now has enough versatility in his game to be just that. Trying to make this a three year argument muddies the waters on that front and almost serves to distract from the relevant point. It's almost like if we were to compare Dream using 92, 93, 94.

[sansterre]

The minute question really depends on the framing of the issue.

If the question is: "Who contributed more value to their team?" then the player that played more minutes per game at comparable quality wins. That should be fairly apparent.

If the question is: "Which player was more valuable relative to their league environment?" then minutes don't really enter into it, save inasmuch as they deviate from the baseline of that era.

From '94-96, the baseline was around 32.2 MPG (the average between 5 players x the number of teams in the league x 3 years).

From '19-21, the baseline was around 30.0 MPG.

Relative to what was average for their league, Robinson still played considerably more minutes than Giannis.

What if we compare them, instead of to their league average starter, to the Top 10 players in the league (stars against stars)?

By Win Shares:

'94-96: 37.3 MPG
'19-21: 33.7 MPG

By VORP:

'94-96: 37.7 MPG
'19-21: 34.1 MPG

In Robinson's day the average starter played 2.2 more minutes per game. The average star played 3.6 more minutes per game.

Robinson averaged playing 6.3 more minutes per game than Giannis.

The minute gap isn't as big as it looks if we're comparing to era average. But it's still worth noting.

Robinson missing 3 games over his 3 years compared to Giannis missing 31 is worth considering as well.

[The Master]

DRob can be chosen ahead of Giannis 19-20 based on his regular season impact and accumulated number of minutes played, which I do believe was an all-time great level in terms of a floor raising, especially considering limitations of them both in the playoffs.

That being said, Giannis' 2021 offensive output in the postseason is something we haven't seen from DRob like ... ever, what makes this convo kind of easy.

The only counter-argument would be that Giannis played against mediocre defenses, which is to some degree correct, he struggled against Miami and then had Nets-Suns defenses against (missmatched at front, just average to solid defenses in general), but DRob got a chance to play against -0.1, -0.9 and +1.1 rDRTG teams in '95 (and I don't think he played against any dominant defenses in this span) in a year of inflated offensive numbers for this era (the highest ts% in PO in 90s), and yet his offensive output wasn't nearly good as Giannis' from this season.

[magicman1978]

DRob can be chosen ahead of Giannis 19-20 based on his regular season impact and accumulated number of minutes played, which I do believe was an all-time great level in terms of a floor raising, especially considering limitations of them both in the playoffs.

That being said, Giannis' 2021 offensive output in the postseason is something we haven't seen from DRob like ... ever, what makes this convo kind of easy.

The only counter-argument would be that Giannis played against mediocre defenses, which is to some degree correct, he struggled against Miami and then had Nets-Suns defenses against (missmatched at front, just average to solid defenses in general), but DRob got a chance to play against -0.1, -0.9 and +1.1 rDRTG teams in '95 (and I don't think he played against any dominant defenses in this span) in a year of inflated offensive numbers for this era (the highest ts% in PO in 90s), and yet his offensive output wasn't nearly good as Giannis' from this season.

To be fair, in 95 he went up against Mutombo and Olajuwon so the team rDRTG numbers aren't truly reflective of what he was facing individually. Lack of spacing and poor coaching also didn't help. I think Giannis would perform better, but seeing his struggles against other top defenders, I don't think he would have a big enough advantage offensively to make this a clear cut decision in his favor overall.

[Owly]

Even if you buy in to DRob's supposed goat regular season APM (where are these numbers btw), Giannis's evolution into a true on ball / off ball threat this playoffs makes this conversation a non-starter. The entire argument against DRob is he wasn't skilled enough to be a #1 on a title winning team. Giannis just showed he now has enough versatility in his game to be just that. Trying to make this a three year argument muddies the waters on that front and almost serves to distract from the relevant point. It's almost like if we were to compare Dream using 92, 93, 94.

Assume this is regarding what I posted.

Raw plus-minus (i.e. "On" numbers) were done by Harvey Pollack and included in 76(edit: ers ... Media Guides, I think, something like that), made available (in addition to further back 76ers numbers) by fpliii here viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1343246. On-off on a per minute basis could be done from there (though as before without the play-by-play per possession's will be approximates). As I said this is what was posted. There are now several google sheets from or relating to this thread. Searching for Pollack, fplii, 76ers and plus minus should find you the thread or any offshoots.

As to the "Regressed RAPM" (or RAPM estimate) files see page 7 post 125 for Colts18's '95 version, so I assume the others are in there.

[Owly]

DRob can be chosen ahead of Giannis 19-20 based on his regular season impact and accumulated number of minutes played, which I do believe was an all-time great level in terms of a floor raising, especially considering limitations of them both in the playoffs.

That being said, Giannis' 2021 offensive output in the postseason is something we haven't seen from DRob like ... ever, what makes this convo kind of easy.

The only counter-argument would be that Giannis played against mediocre defenses, which is to some degree correct, he struggled against Miami and then had Nets-Suns defenses against (missmatched at front, just average to solid defenses in general), but DRob got a chance to play against -0.1, -0.9 and +1.1 rDRTG teams in '95 (and I don't think he played against any dominant defenses in this span) in a year of inflated offensive numbers for this era (the highest ts% in PO in 90s), and yet his offensive output wasn't nearly good as Giannis' from this season.

To be fair, in 95 he went up against Mutombo and Olajuwon so the team rDRTG numbers aren't truly reflective of what he was facing individually.

Was about to post this. Hakeem also missed 10 games, Horry 18, so Drtg would be worse than full strength Rockets. The trade and the departure of Maxwell further make Houston's RS defensive record quite a noisy representation of their playoff roster/rotation.

[trex_8063]

Again, I don't have much desire to entertain an argument that basically penalizes Giannis for the era he plays in (we're going to have to accept the "load management" era for what it is).

A fair point. I wasn't sure how to account for the difference, though thankfully sansterre did the heavy lifting for us [post #14].
The era-related difference in playing time appears to be average out around 3 or so minutes [depending on methodology].....Robinson played a little more than 6 extra minutes.

So even with era differences accounted for, Robinson was on the court [providing the production and impact that comes with being on the court] a little more.

I also don't see how you can look at per-100 metrics and conclude that D-Rob has any case over Giannis offensively.

You'll note that's not what I said.

A 4.1 PP-100 difference with +1-2 TS efficiency is literally the difference between Shaq and Patrick Ewing. Calling it "small" is incredible hyperbole.

Hmm.....this feels a trifle cherry-picked. I tried to provide a brief and simplified, yet still lamely broad-view, look at offensive production. You've distilled it down to ONLY scoring.

Giannis's edge on Robinson in pts/100 and rTS% was +4.1 pts with a +1.3% edge in rTS.

If we look at the respective best offensive 3-year spans of Shaq and Ewing [probably '00-'02 and '90-'92, respectively], Shaq has an edge of +3.8 pts with a +1.9% edge in rTS.
That is indeed very close/similar to the edge Giannis has on Robinson. For simplicity let's call it a wash in scoring [that is: Shaq's edge on Ewing is "literally" the same as Giannis's on Robinson].

Let's also not forget that Giannis beat DRob soundly in assist rate, too, providing +3.6 additional ast/100.
Shaq only produced a +1.6 edge in ast/100 over Ewing.

So the edge Giannis has on Robinson is +2.0 ast/100 compared to the edge Shaq has on Ewing.


I guess the offensive gap between Robinson and Giannis is actually BIGGER than the one between Shaq/Ewing, huh?
Except we're still leaving some box tidbits out....

Whereas Ewing commits +0.5 additional turnovers/100 compared to Shaq in the selected years, Robinson committed -1.4 fewer compared to Giannis.
That's -1.9 swing in tov/100.
I don't know about you, but I don't think a mere 2 extra assists off-sets 1.9 additional turnovers.

So already the Giannis/DRob comparison is looking a pinch closer than the Shaq/Ewing comparison on offense.


And then there's offensive rebounding.......
Whereas Ewing trails Shaq by somewhat sizable -1.8 ORebs/100, Robinson leads Giannis by +1.5 ORebs/100 (creating a fairly whopping +3.3 swing between the two comparisons).

So the difference between Giannis and DRob ["literally"] equals that which exists between Shaq and Ewing? No, not really. There's not a particular honest way we can get there.


I will stand by my previous statement: any offensive advantage to Giannis is fairly small in the rs.

[magicman1978]

Shaq had a significant offensive efficiency (+11 rortg) advantage over Ewing (+3 rortg) compared to league average those seasons. DRob has a higher efficiency (+12) against league average when compared to Giannis (+9).