1970s Top Team Tourney Ro64: '75 Bulls @ '78 Sonics

[sansterre]

Don't forget, the home team for the series only benefits from that designation for Game 7. The rankings for these teams are out of 37 (because their are 37 teams in the 1970s tourney). The player stats are SS (ShotShare, percentage of team's shots taken when on the court) and efficiency relative to league average, and the slash stats are points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game and stocks per game (if applicable), all adjusted to a Pace of 100. And then the player's playoff OBPM (if available).

The 1975 Chicago Bulls (#37) @ The 1978 Seattle SuperSonics (#28)

Overall:

Record: ‘78 Sonics, 47 wins (33rd) = '75 Bulls, 47 wins (33rd)
RSRS: ‘75 Bulls, +2.88 (28th) > ‘78 Sonics, +1.48 (35th)
PSRS: '78 Sonics, +3.80 (28th) > ‘75 Bulls, +3.41 (29th)

When the '75 Bulls have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '75 Bulls' offense vs '78 Sonics’' defense:

Regular Season: -0.3 Offensive Rating (33rd) vs -3.2 Defensive Rating (19th): -3.5 expected
Playoffs: -1.7 Offensive Rating (36th) vs +0.1 Defensive Rating (29th): -1.6 expected

Lineup:

PG: Norm Van Lier, 21.0% SS on -2.5% rTS, 15.0 / 4.7 / 5.8 / 2.2 : -0.3 playoff OBPM
SG: Jerry Sloan, 18.7% SS on -1.5% rTS, 12.2 / 6.9 / 2.1 / 2.4: -0.1 playoff OBPM
SF: Chet Walker, 25.9% SS on +6.6% rTS, 19.3 / 5.7 / 2.2 / 0.7: +3.5 playoff OBPM
PF: Bob Love, 28.7% SS on -2.1% rTS, 22.1 / 6.3 / 1.7 / 1.2: +2.3 playoff OBPM
C: Tom Boerwinkle, 13.1% SS on +3.7% rTS, 4.2 / 4.8 / 3.4 / 0.9: +2.5 playoff OBPM
6th: Nate Thurmond, 14.1% SS on -9.9% rTS, 7.9 / 11.3 / 4.1 / 3.0: -0.9 playoff OBPM

When the '78 Sonics have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '78 Sonics' offense vs '75 Bulls' defense:

Regular Season: -1.7 Offensive Rating (37th) vs -3.3 Defensive Rating (18th): -5.0 expected
Playoffs: +2.8 Offensive Rating (11th) vs -4.3 Defensive Rating (14th): -1.5 expected

Lineup:

PG: Gus Williams, 25.6% SS on -2.4% rTS, 17.3 / 3.1 / 3.5 / 2.7: +2.9 playoff OBPM
SG: Dennis Johnson, 21.7% SS on -2.9% rTS, 12.1 / 3.4 / 2.7 / 2.0: +0.8 playoff OBPM
SF: John Johnson, 22.4% SS on -6.2% rTS, 10.2 / 3.8 / 2.7 / 0.9: -1.8 playoff OBPM
PF: Paul Silas, 11.4% SS on -7.8% rTS, 5.5 / 7.7 / 1.7 / 1.0: -0.7 playoff OBPM
C: Marvin Webster, 16.4% SS on +2.8% rTS, 13.4 / 12.0 / 2.4 / 2.5: +1.0 playoff OBPM
6th: Jack Sikma, 17.4% SS on -0.6% rTS, 10.2 / 7.9 / 1.5 / 1.2: -0.1 playoff OBPM
7th: Fred Brown, 26.0% SS on +1.3% rTS, 15.8 / 2.5 / 3.1 / 1.7: +2.8 playoff OBPM

Discussion Questions:

1. Injuries: None.
2. This is a battle of bigs. Both teams ran with two-center lineups for much of their games (Boerwinkle and Thurmond for the Bulls, Webster and rookie Jack Sikma for the Sonics). Both teams played tough defense and neither team had a strong offense. Does this matchup favor one more than another?
3. Normally you can dismiss the Bulls of the early 70s by saying that they were always a playoff disappointment. But they really weren’t in ‘75. They won their division (if not by a lot), stomped the Kings and fell in seven games to the eventual champion Warriors. Not dominant . . . but not embarrassing either. The Sonics, on the other hand, had quite a run. They beat the Lakers, beat the Walton-less Blazers and finally defeated the Nuggets to advance to the Finals. None of these teams were terribly strong, and none of the victories were terribly dominant. But the Sonics won, and that counts for something. And then they were whipped by the ‘78 Bullets. So this isn’t a convenient situation where one team folded in the playoffs and one team was great; both teams played pretty well in the playoffs and got reasonably far. The Sonics were probably the better playoff team, but the Bulls were probably the better regular season team. Then again, the Sonics’ PSRS is getting a solid bump from beating the Blazers without Walton, which probably shouldn’t happen.
4. I know that the Bulls have strong defensive guards, but Gus Williams and Dennis Johnson were pretty resilient playoff scorers.


I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.

Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. Lord knows I don't know a ton about these teams

Spoiler:

MasterThread

[penbeast0]

PG: Gus Williams, 25.6% SS on -2.4% rTS, 17.3 / 3.1 / 3.5 / 2.7: +2.9 playoff OBPM
SG: Dennis Johnson, 21.7% SS on -2.9% rTS, 12.1 / 3.4 / 2.7 / 2.0: +0.8 playoff OBPM
SF: John Johnson, 22.4% SS on -6.2% rTS, 10.2 / 3.8 / 2.7 / 0.9: -1.8 playoff OBPM
PF: Paul Silas, 11.4% SS on -7.8% rTS, 5.5 / 7.7 / 1.7 / 1.0: -0.7 playoff OBPM
C: Marvin Webster, 16.4% SS on +2.8% rTS, 13.4 / 12.0 / 2.4 / 2.5: +1.0 playoff OBPM
6th: Jack Sikma, 17.4% SS on -0.6% rTS, 10.2 / 7.9 / 1.5 / 1.2: -0.1 playoff OBPM

I knew the Bulls were a poor offensive shooting efficiency team outside of Chet Walker but I had thought Gus Williams and John Johnson were a lot better than this. Gus did play a little better in the playoffs (.518ts%) but still. Walker actually upped his efficiency in the playoffs which is big for the only efficient offensive scorer on either team (other than Freddie Brown). I was ready to go Sonics until I saw the shooting numbers; both teams are excellent defensively but Chicago looks a bit better offensively so now I'm not sure.

You probably want to mention Downtown Freddie Brown too, he played more RS minutes than John Johnson (21 minutes less in the playoffs) though less than Sikma and was easily the Sonics best offensive weapon as unlike Webster, he could create for himself. SMOY candidate.

[sansterre]

PG: Gus Williams, 25.6% SS on -2.4% rTS, 17.3 / 3.1 / 3.5 / 2.7: +2.9 playoff OBPM
SG: Dennis Johnson, 21.7% SS on -2.9% rTS, 12.1 / 3.4 / 2.7 / 2.0: +0.8 playoff OBPM
SF: John Johnson, 22.4% SS on -6.2% rTS, 10.2 / 3.8 / 2.7 / 0.9: -1.8 playoff OBPM
PF: Paul Silas, 11.4% SS on -7.8% rTS, 5.5 / 7.7 / 1.7 / 1.0: -0.7 playoff OBPM
C: Marvin Webster, 16.4% SS on +2.8% rTS, 13.4 / 12.0 / 2.4 / 2.5: +1.0 playoff OBPM
6th: Jack Sikma, 17.4% SS on -0.6% rTS, 10.2 / 7.9 / 1.5 / 1.2: -0.1 playoff OBPM

I knew the Bulls were a poor offensive shooting efficiency team outside of Chet Walker but I had thought Gus Williams and John Johnson were a lot better than this. Gus did play a little better in the playoffs (.518ts%) but still. Walker actually upped his efficiency in the playoffs which is big for the only efficient offensive scorer on either team (other than Freddie Brown). I was ready to go Sonics until I saw the shooting numbers; both teams are excellent defensively but Chicago looks a bit better offensively so now I'm not sure.

You probably want to mention Downtown Freddie Brown too, he played more RS minutes than John Johnson (21 minutes less in the playoffs) though less than Sikma and was easily the Sonics best offensive weapon as unlike Webster, he could create for himself. SMOY candidate.

Yeah, my current system is listing the top 6 playoff minutes per game players and I didn't really know what else to make the cutoff. You're completely right though; the Sonics ran seven deep and nobody else got many minutes in the playoffs. I'll make the changes. And you're right; the '88 Sonics are the *worst* shooting team in this tournament. They had other fine qualities (they played good defense, they didn't turn the ball over much and they owned the glass) but shooting was really not their thing.

One of the things I try to remember is that the core of the '78 Sonics was stupid young. Gus was in his third year, DJ in his second and Sikma in his first, all 24 or younger. In '78 they were still growing into the players that they'd become (in about one year).

[wojoaderge]

[ I'll make the changes.

You have JJ listed twice

[sansterre]

[ I'll make the changes.

You have JJ listed twice

You're completely right; thanks for bringing that to my attention!

[sansterre]

I feel completely up in the air about this one. It's easy to conflate the '78 Sonics with the '79 Sonics, but they're not particularly similar teams. And it's easy to conflate the '75 Bulls with the other more disappointing Bulls, but they really weren't in '75.

I'm actually going to take the Bulls in 6. They were the definitely better regular season team and their postseasons seem pretty comparable. But I won't say this is substantive; I had to make a choice and I made one. And at the moment it's been the only vote, so I encourage anyone else interested to weigh in before voting closes tomorrow morning (and we move on to the round of 32!).

[homecourtloss]

Very difficult to pick between these two teams. I feel if they played 100 times, each team would win around 50 times each. I’ll have to take the Sonics in 7 as the home team getting that home court in the final game.

[wojoaderge]

I'm gonna go with the 78 Sonics in 7. By playoff time Sikma was starting and playing well and the Bulls don't have an answer for the Sonics two-big man attack no matter who they play. The Bulls have kind of a relatively inefficient offense and the Sonics' defense will make it even more so.

[70sFan]

I believe that Sonics team was a bit more versatile. Sikma would give Bulls a lot of problems - neither Chet nor Bob could really guard him. Although Gus would likely struggle against Bulls backcourt, he wasn't nearly as quintessential to Sonics offense as he became later.

Sorry for short post, I wish I had more time on this one. I'd go with Sonics winning the series in 7 games.

[sansterre]

I'm calling the voting; it's 3-1 for the Sonics. They advance to face the '72 Bucks.

The first matchup of the round of 32 is coming up!