The 1971 Baltimore Bullets (#33) @ The 1971 Milwaukee Bucks (#1)
Overall:
Record: ‘71 Bucks, 66 wins (3rd) > '71 Bullets, 42 wins (37th)
RSRS: ‘71 Bucks, +11.92 (1st) > '71 Bullets, +0.91 (36th)
PSRS: ‘71 Bucks, +16.98 (1st) > '71 Bullets, +6.61 (17th)
When the '71 Bullets have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '71 Bullets’ offense vs '71 Bucks' defense:
Regular Season: -1.0 Offensive Rating (35th) vs -4.1 Defensive Rating (9th): -5.1 expected
Playoffs: +0.4 Offensive Rating (30th) vs -9.1 Defensive Rating (2nd): -8.7 expected
Lineup:
PG: Earl Monroe, 25.5% SS on +0.2% rTS, 18.4 / 2.2 / 3.8
SG: Fred Carter, 22.0% SS on -5.4% rTS, 8.9 / 2.8 / 1.8
SF: Jack Marin, 21.7% SS on +1.0% rTS, 16.1 / 5.4 / 2.2
PF: Gus Johnson, 20.1% SS on -0.6% rTS, 15.6 / 14.7 / 2.5
C: Wes Unseld, 14.2% SS on +4.6% rTS, 12.1 / 14.5 / 3.4
6th: Kevin Loughery, 24.9% SS on -3.8% rTS, 13.0 / 2.3 / 3.2
7th: John Tresvant, 14.1% SS on +2.1% rTS, 6.5 / 4.6 / 0.9
When the '71 Bucks have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '71 Bucks' offense vs '71 Bullets' defense:
Regular Season: +6.7 Offensive Rating (1st) vs -1.5 Defensive Rating (29th): +5.2 expected
Playoffs: +4.9 Offensive Rating (7th) vs -5.1 Defensive Rating (11th): -0.2 expected
Lineup:
PG: Oscar Robertson, 19.5% SS on +6.3% rTS, 17.1 / 5.0 / 7.2
SG: Jon McGlocklin, 17.7% SS on +6.3% rTS, 13.9 / 2.4 / 3.3
SF: Bob Dandridge, 20.8% SS on +4.5% rTS, 16.2 / 7.1 / 3.1
PF: Greg Smith, 16.4% SS on +3.7% rTS, 10.3 / 6.3 / 2.5
C: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 29.1% SS on +10.6% rTS, 28.0 / 14.1 / 2.9
6th: Lucius Allen, 17.2% SS on -1.5% rTS, 6.3 / 2.2 / 2.3
7th: Bob Boozer, 18.2% SS on +0.2% rTS, 8.0 / 4.8 / 1.4
Thoughts:
-Injuries: Gus Johnson misses games 4, 5 and 6 for Baltimore.
-In the regular season the ‘71 Bullets honestly don’t look that good. In a diluted league that inflated the wins and SRS of the top of the league, the Bullets come out looking pretty average. But in the playoffs they came alive. Not on offense; the ‘71 Bullets were never strong on that end. But their defense became excellent, notably shutting down the defending champion Knicks as part of a 5.9 point per game victory that got the Bullets into the NBA Finals. The ‘71 Bullets are unquestionably better than their regular season suggests.
-The ‘71 Bucks were . . . monstrous. Any team in this tournament would be thrilled to feature three players scoring in the +4.5% to +6.3% range. And for the Bucks it was just icing on the cake, as Kareem’s 29% ShotShare on +10.6% rTS set the tone for the team, the league and the era. The Bucks as a team shot (eFG%) +6% over the league average. The second highest team in this tournament? +4.3%. They are such an outlier it beggars the imagination. But they also had a Top Ten defense for this tournament as well. Did the Bucks’ offense slow down in the playoffs? Yes; their playoff offense was only the 7th best in this tourney (+4.9), and Kareem’s efficiency dropped by over 5% (not adjusted). But their defense got better by far, far more than their offense got worse. Did they play any particularly good offenses in the playoffs? Not really (the best opposition, Lakers, were +1.6). But the Bucks’ defense completely smothered all comers. They were simply dominant, and they are rightly considered one of the best teams ever.
-We don’t really need to use our imagination to consider what would happen if these teams met: they faced each other in the Finals and the Bucks won 4-0 by 12.3 points a game. I’ll concede, Gus Johnson only played in 2 of those games, and played quite badly. He might be considered better / more available for the matchup we’re looking at. But to my mind, the question isn’t really if the Bullets can win the series. It’s if they can win an individual game.
I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.
Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!
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