The 1972 New York Knicks (#21) @ The 1972 Milwaukee Bucks (#5)
Overall:
Record: '72 Bucks, 63 wins (4th) > ‘72 Knicks, 48 wins (31st)
RSRS: '72 Bucks, +10.70 (3rd) > ‘72 Knicks, +2.28 (32nd)
PSRS: '72 Bucks, +14.08 (2nd) > ‘72 Knicks, +9.54 (6th)
When the '72 Knicks have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '72 Knicks' offense vs '72 Bucks' defense:
Regular Season: +0.6 Offensive Rating (27th) vs -5.3 Defensive Rating (6th): -4.7 expected
Playoffs: +4.7 Offensive Rating (8th) vs -9.8 Defensive Rating (1st): -5.1 expected
Lineup:
PG: Walt Frazier, 22.6% SS on +7.3% rTS, 21.5 / 6.2 / 5.4
SG: Earl Monroe, 25.4% SS on -0.7% rTS, 10.6 / 1.4 / 2.0
SF: Bill Bradley 19.2% SS on -0.2% rTS, 14.0 / 3.0 / 3.7
PF: Dave DeBusschere, 19.8% SS on -4.2% rTS, 14.3 / 10.5 / 3.3
C: Jerry Lucas, 18.2% SS on +4.4% rTS, 15.5 / 12.1 / 3.8
6th: Phil Jackson, 20.3% SS on +0.5% rTS, 6.7 / 3.8 / 0.8
When the '72 Bucks have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '72 Bucks' offense vs '72 Knicks' defense:
Regular Season: +4.7 Offensive Rating (3rd) vs -1.6 Defensive Rating (25th): +3.1 expected
Playoffs: +2.0 Offensive Rating (20th) vs -3.8 Defensive Rating (16th): -1.8 expected
Lineup:
PG: Oscar Robertson, 19.6% SS on +3.6% rTS, 15.6 / 4.5 / 6.9
SG: Lucius Allen, 19.4% SS on +4.3% rTS, 12.1 / 2.9 / 3.8
SF: Bob Dandridge, 21.4% SS on +3.6% rTS, 16.5 / 6.9 / 2.8
PF: Curtis Perry, 12.7% SS on -8.0% rTS, 6.3 / 8.5 / 1.4
C: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 29.7% SS on +9.9% rTS, 31.3 / 14.9 / 4.1
6th: Wali Jones, 17.4% SS on -4.4% rTS, 6.7 / 1.4 / 2.6
7th: Jon McGlocklin, 16.2% SS on +3.9% rTS, 9.6 / 2.1 / 2.6
Thoughts:
- Injuries: Wali Jones will miss Game 4, Jon McGlocklin will miss Games 4, 5, 6 and 7, both for the Bucks.
- What’s in a regular season? The ‘72 Knicks weren’t that good in the regular season. The Knicks were reeling from the loss of Willis Reed early in the regular season, they were still playing Dick Barnett serious minutes. On the former point the Knicks had wisely (or luckily) acquired Jerry Lucas for Cazzie Russell in the offseason, so they at least had a viable starting center. Shortly after the Reed injury they traded for Earl Monroe but, truthfully, they went into the playoffs a fairly unimpressive team. But in the playoffs they dropped Barnett’s minutes considerably (from 29mpg to 11) and gave Monroe more time on the court. The Knicks’ offense went on a tear in the playoffs, led by somewhat by Lucas (+6.1% rTS adjusted on 17.3% of the team’s shots) but the real offensive force was Clyde Frazier, with a blistering +9.6% rTS on 22.3% of the team’s shots. I don’t give the Knicks tons of credit for beating the Bullets in the postseason, but when they played the Celtics (the 1 seed, best SRS in the East) they won in 5 by 8.6 points per game. It was unquestionably dominance. Did the Knicks gets whipped soundly by the ‘72 Lakers (5 games, 4.4 points per game)? Yes. But if we accept that in the playoffs the ‘72 Knicks were only 4.4 points per game worse than one of the best teams ever . . . that makes them very good indeed (Frazier shot over +10% rTS in the Finals).
Could the Bucks’ insane defense have stopped Frazier and the Knicks? They actually held West to under 35% from the field in their matchup, but that was older West and Frazier was still in his prime in ‘72. I’m not sure, but it’s clear that the playoff ‘72 Knicks were very, very good.
- The ‘72 Bucks’ offense was surprisingly mortal in the postseason. But a big part of that was Kareem getting matched up against two of the toughest defensive centers ever, in Wilt and Thurmond. No disrespect to Jerry Lucas, but I don’t see him being quite as effective against Kareem. I wouldn’t guess that the Bucks’ offense is going to dominate or anything . . . but if their defense plays extremely well (seems likely) I don’t know that they’ll need to. The thing is, both of these teams played the ‘72 Lakers in the playoffs:
Bucks: Lost 2-4, +2.3 MoV
Knicks: Lost 1-4, -4.4 MoV
It’s hard not to conclude that the Bucks are the better team here.
I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.
Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!
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