Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22-23 (USC, Illinois)

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Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22-23 (USC, Illinois) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jul 12, 2022 12:17 am

How it works
Simple ballot system: 3 votes/ballots [3-2-1 point system]. The "source" with the most points will take the spot.

It looks like interest in this project is limited, so I'm not going to have a designated time-limit for each place [though I don't want to leave each open for 4-5 days]; we'll probably aim for something in the neighborhood of 48 hours each, but we'll see.
This may be one of those projects that fizzles out quick due to lack of interest, but I'm hoping at least 2-3 people will come along with me for it.
There will be no approval of participants; anyone can pop in at any time to vote/contribute, even on a sporadic or part-time basis. No "arguments" will be required to accompany votes, though a list of notable players from each source being voted for is encouraged.....this will help jog memories, as well as stimulate conversation (and may help clarify the "source" in some rare cases where it is ambiguous). Hopefully we'll pick up some participants along the way.

How you want to consider those universities/sources (in terms of considerations of total players vs quality of players, etc) is entirely up to you [though others may wish to debate your selection criteria].

I'm hoping to make it out to around the top 20 [or so] "sources" of all-time for pro [NBA/ABA/BAA/NBL] players, but we'll see.


The "Talent Sources"
We are going to include non-university sources, as to do otherwise just leaves too many relevant players on the table.
Besides, it occurred to me that when scrutinizing the resulting list, one can just mentally exclude the non-university sources [I'll even colour-code those differently to make it easier], and what's left is an ordered list of the universities (as well as an ordered list of other sources)......two birds, right?
The source can be of the following three types:

a) (an American) University/College - if they played even one year at the university, that will be designated the default "source" of that pro player. If a player played at multiple universities, you can mentally factor that in to consideration for ALL universities played at, give preference to the university he had his BEST years at, or to the university he played LONGER at.....whatever; up to you.

b) a Non-USA Country (if not subject to "a" above) - This one is only to be considered a potential source IF they did not attend an American university. Examples would be guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, or Nikola Jokic.......their country of origin is considered the "source".
Someone like Hakeem Olajuwon, otoh, would be considered from the University of Houston [and not Nigeria].

In the event of using this designation, we may have individuals where consensus on just WHERE a player is "from" is debatable. Tony Parker is a good example: born in Belgium to an American father and Dutch mother, but raised in France (confusing already, right?). But most of us consider Tony from France [he played for their national team, too], as that's where he grew up.

And to me, that's what it's more about: where they grew up (rather than where they were born (or the nationality of his parents)). There may end up being a player for whom the "source" country is ambiguous and debatable; but we'll cross that bridge as we come to it (and again: that's why it's good to give at least a partial list of WHO you have in mind when placing a vote, so we can debate things like this as needed).

c) an American Highschool Zone - Self-explanatory: this is for American players who did NOT have a college career, but rather went straight to pro.
Having just "USA" as a single source for all American players who did NOT attend a university is just too great a source......it ends up blowing away all the competition at this point (we've just seen too many great players out of highschool now, it holds too much of a sample-size advantage over any American university).
So I've opted to break it up into three zones, which are as follows....

The East Coast Zone - This includes all states that actually make up part of America's eastern coastline [including Washington D.C. simply because it basically resides within Maryland]. That is: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticutt. Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland [including D.C.], Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

The East-Central Zone - This includes the states west of our "East Coast Zone", but east of [or inclusive of, in one case] the Missouri River. That is: West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Mississippi, Lousiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Missouri.

The Western Zone - All the states that are left: Texas, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii.


That's 14 states in the East Coast Zone, 16 in the East-Central Zone, and 20 in the Western Zone.
If you want to know why I broke them up in this manner, I wanted zones that had some geographical rhyme or reason, but also zones that had similar overall population.....
The East Coast Zone has a population of just over 108 million by recent census.
The East-Central Zone has just under 102 million.
The Western Zone has just over 119 million.

So the Western Zone has the largest population, BUT that's only by recent census. If we jumped back 60-70 years ago, that was not at all the case. Nearer the start of BAA/NBA history, the Western Zone would have been the LEAST populous zone. The population of states like California, Arizona, Nevada, and even Texas have really taken off in more modern eras.
Basketball also started out East, and spread west more gradually. So I intentionally made it the largest zone [today] to compensate somewhat for that consideration, while still having some manner of geographical demarkation to go with.

Gimme' your top 3 picks [in order] for the #22 spot.....

1. UCLA
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Kansas
5. East Coast Zone (highschool)
6. Duke
7. Georgetown
8. East-Central Zone (highschool)
9. Michigan State
10. Wake Forest
11. Houston
12. Ohio State
13. Indiana
14. LSU
15. Arizona
16. Texas
17. Michigan
18. UCONN
19. Marquette
20. Georgia Tech
21. Spain

Spoiler:
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jalengreen wrote:.

falcolombardi wrote:.

Colbini wrote:.

giordunk wrote:.
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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jul 12, 2022 12:20 am

Titles (as top 3)
France - 4 (Tony Parker)
USC - 4 (Bill Sharman - 3, Gus Williams - 1)
Minnesota - 2 [3?] (Kevin McHale - 2, [Kleggie Hermsen - 1?? with '48 Bullets]; NOTE: McHale does have a 3rd, and Mychal Thompson has two with the Lakers; Whitey Skoog won two with the early 50's Lakers, too; and Don Carlson won two with the 40s/50s Lakers.....just none as top-3 players; lots of BAA/NBA titles represented here, though)
Notre Dame - 2 (Bill Laimbeer)
Western Zone - 1??? (Tyson Chandler on '11 Mavs??)
Illinois - 1??? (Red Kerr on '55 Nationals??)
Serbia - 0

Total WS
Notre Dame - 769.0
Minnesota - 751.0
USC - 712.0
Illinois - 695.9
France - 396.7
Western Zone - 317.8
Serbia - 275.9

Total Players (Mean WS)
Notre Dame - 60 (12.8)
Minnesota - 50 (15.0)
USC - 46 (15.5)
Illinois - 46 (15.1)
Serbia - 24 (11.5)
France - 21 (18.89)
Western Zone - 9 identified so far (35.31)

Score [the one I'd previously shared]
Notre Dame - 333.52
Illinois - 324.78
Minnesota - 306.45
USC - 296.34
France - 206.80
Western Zone - 155.11
Serbia - 154.86

All-Star Selections
USC - 27
Illinois - 24 (6 were ABA All-Stars [also a few from early 1950's; but otoh Illinois also claims Derek Harper, Eddie Johnson, Nick Anderson, and Kendall Gill.......who were all dubiously snubbed their entire careers)
Minnesota - 19
Notre Dame - 15
France - 9
Serbia - 5
Western Zone - 3

MVP's
Serbia - 2
Notre Dame/Western Zone/Illinois/France/USC/Minnesota - 0 each


Regarding France's numbers [newly added this thread]:
31 players are listed as born in France on bbref......but on closer exam you find several grew up in America and went to American universities. A few others grew up in France, but then attended American universities, most showing dramatic improvement while in that NCAA program. The one exception is Yakhouba Diawara, who entered Pepperdine in his early 20's, playing two seasons there [without showing notable improvement, by the numbers]; so I've credited the second half only of his meager NBA career to France.
Plus there's Tony Parker---who's not listed among those 31 because he was born in Belgium, but we know he's a product of France.

btw, found one more player to be credited to the East Coast Zone: William Howard. Born in France, but grew up in Maryland, came to NBA out of highschool. Played just 2 games in his NBA career. :-?

France is interesting: some nice talent at the top in Tony Parker and Rudy Gobert, followed up with Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw, Evan Fournier (plus Ian Mahinmi and Alexis Ajinca). But it fairly well falls off a cliff after that. Their weighted avg WS is pretty strong (49.79), and their mean is decent as you can see above. The median WS is just 2.4, though, as there are 10 players with basically non-existent careers ranging from -0.5 to 1.1 WS.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22 

Post#3 » by falcolombardi » Wed Jul 13, 2022 12:04 am

Thinking france time may have come

France, usc and illinois look like the strongest 3 to me at the moment

Minnesota also has a interwsting case and may make my top 3 after further considerstion

Not overly impressed with notre dame outside dantley and laimbeer names but i may be undervaluing their depth
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22 

Post#4 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jul 13, 2022 4:58 pm

falcolombardi wrote:Thinking france time may have come

France, usc and illinois look like the strongest 3 to me at the moment

Minnesota also has a interwsting case and may make my top 3 after further considerstion

Not overly impressed with notre dame outside dantley and laimbeer names but i may be undervaluing their depth


Yeah, I'm not super-impressed with the list of names from Notre Dame either. Good, but not great at this stage.
They rank superbly well via total players, total WS, WS-based "score", etc.......but the thing I have to keep reminding myself of is that even scrubs/bad player accumulate WS. So I don't want to reward a source merely for producing a few dozen extra scrubs.

Also, Adrian Dantley is sort of a darling of the win shares metric: it very likely OVERstates his value.

I'm not sure if I'm ready for France yet, though.

I'm mostly likely going with Illinois, USC, and Minnesota [in some order].


Speaking of valuing top-heavy options: what do people think of Louisiana Tech?
Only 9 total players produced, but the one at the top is Karl Malone, who is arguably the 3rd-greatest player whose source has NOT yet been voted in. The 2nd-best career is Paul Millsap [a fringe top-125(ish) guy all-time, imo]. And then there's PJ Brown [a very good journeyman role player]. Their top 3 stacks up well against ANY source remaining.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22 

Post#5 » by jalengreen » Thu Jul 14, 2022 5:05 am

Tentatively going 1. USC 2. Illinois 3. Minnesota, may change if I get a chance to consider other options at #3.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22 

Post#6 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:13 pm

I'm going to put in my tentative picks:

1. Illinois
2. Minnesota
3. USC


Top HM probably Notre Dame (their extended depth has to be relevant at some point, considering they have a strong top 2 in Dantley and Laimbeer). France maybe coming up soon. Louisiana Tech maybe get some consideration soon?
I need to take a closer look at St. John's too.

Minnesota and USC very close. I maybe like the top 6-7 names [collectively] at the top for USC just slightly more than Minnesota's top 6-7 (although I do think McHale [Minny] is the best career EITHER university has to offer).

Minnesota's top half-dozen [or so] is probably: Kevin McHale, Lou Hudson, Archie Clark, Mychal Thompson, Mark Olberding, Bobby Jackson, Ray Williams.

USC's is probably: Gus Williams, Bill Sharman, DeMar DeRozan, Paul Westphal, Nikola Vucevic, Taj Gibson, Cliff Robinson [the lesser].

Both have a handful of decent role players behind that.

idk......they're really close. I could see flipping them. USC has more titles represented [as a top 3 player], though it's mostly in the pre-merger era (Sharman). USC has more All-Stars, but again a lot of them are in the pre-merger era.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22 

Post#7 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:16 pm

Scores thus far:

Illinois - 5 pts
USC - 4 pts
Minnesota - 3 pts

falcolombardi wrote:.


You gonna cast a vote falco?
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22 

Post#8 » by falcolombardi » Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:00 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Scores thus far:

Illinois - 5 pts
USC - 4 pts
Minnesota - 3 pts

falcolombardi wrote:.


You gonna cast a vote falco?


Ohh for sure, i am just a tad busy today so i have not compared the schools/countries yet

Can i cast the vote in the night today?
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22 

Post#9 » by falcolombardi » Fri Jul 15, 2022 4:04 am

Illinois

total of nba players: 40 ( mid)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star players: 1? ( low) deron williams (some of their notable guys like eddie johnson are introguing picks for this too)

Notable players: red kerr*, don ohl*, eddie johnson, derek harper, nick anderson, kendall gill, jerry sloan

*red kerr and don ohl i am not familiarized with but i will include them bases on their multiple all star berths

Total win shares: 695 (high)

Vs

Notredame

total of nba players: 59 ( mid)

mvp level players: 0? (low) (dantley?)

notable all star level players: 1 (low) adrian dantley

Borderline stars: laimbeer, wooldridge?

Also motable guys as austin carr, kelly tripucka or joe kleine

Total win shares: 769 (high)

Vs

France

total of nba players: 40 ( mid) (per real gm database)

mvp level players: 0? (low)

notable all star level players: 3 ( mid) (parker, gobert, )

Notable players: batum, diaw,partial credit for noah?

Total win shares: 396 (low)

Good but not good enough yet, their top 6 is close with spain but is just less depth afterwards, i think they are sligtly worse spain here

Vs

USC

total of nba players: 43 ( mid)

mvp level players: 1? (Mid) (gus williams?) He is arguably the best player of a two finals and championship team

notable all star level players: 3 ( mid) derozan,paul westphal, bill sharman

Notable players: vucevic, taj gibson

Total win shares: 712 (mid)

Vs

Minnesota

total of nba players: 48 ( mid)

mvp level players: 1? (Mid) (Mchale)

notable all star players: 1 ( low) lou hudson

Notable players: bobby jackson, archie clark any other?

Total win shares: 751 (high)
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22 

Post#10 » by falcolombardi » Fri Jul 15, 2022 4:11 am

At top talent i like USC>illinois/france> minnesota>notredame

At depth i see USC as very solid too so i think they get my first pick vote as they look bettwe at high end talent and comparable elsewhere to their competition

I am impressed by illinois amount of high end talent although their top 2/3~ loses to france but france weaker deptg after that makes me lean illonois

The last pick comes to france vs minnesota for me where i think mchale and hudson are comparable to gobert and parker, diaw and batum seems comparable to bobby jackson and archie clark (going off him being an all nba second team pick, not sure how good he actually was*)

And since win shares is such a mssive difference i have to assume minny has the better depth too even outside of raw player total
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22 

Post#11 » by falcolombardi » Fri Jul 15, 2022 4:12 am

So for me

1-USC
2-Illinois
3-Minnesota

HM:france
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #22 

Post#12 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:02 pm

Scores thus far:

Illinois - 7 pts
USC - 7 pts
Minnesota - 4 pts

Another tie. As per past threads, we'll allow H2H to decide the winner [and immediately award the H2H loser with the #23 spot]. So USC takes #22, Illinois is #23.
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