Kevin Durant - predict his next 4 years?

Courtside · Post #1 » by **Courtside** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 1:43 am

Considering the trade discussions of the moment, I'm curious what the forum thinks is reasonable to expect from Kevin Durant over the 4 years remaining on his contract. He'll be 34 before the season begins, so each season falls within a complete year in age.

The contract is as follows:

34 yo - $42.97 mil
35 yo - $46.41 mil
36 yo - $49.86 mil
37 yo - $53.28 mil

Some questions to consider:

How many years is he likely to be an elite #1 guy?
What sort of drop off might be expected each year?
How do mid 30s guys perform after Achilles tears?
Are there examples of other forwards to compare to?

Let's not get into any issues of needing help or loyalty or wanting be to be traded this time, or maybe a next time. Try to exclude external factors, and be the GM of a team that might trade for him, and lay out your most reasonable case for what could be expected over the 4 years.

If you have to sell KD to your ownership group, what do you tell them he brings in terms of performance vs value?

TinmanZBoy · Post #2 » by **TinmanZBoy** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 1:51 am

KD has two good years left, the rest will be riddled with injuries

Crives · Post #3 » by **Crives** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 1:54 am

There is a real reason no trade has been made.. 80 regular season games in 3 years and massive contract remaining as KD enters late 30s.

giberish · Post #4 » by **giberish** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 1:57 am

I had KD as the 8th best player in the league last season.

I would expect that KD will remain around the 10th best player in the league for the next two seasons (some mild age decline but perhaps a bit better health to offset) before hitting a more noticeable decline. Maybe 20th best at 36 and 30-40th best at 37.

My main comparison is LeBron, who remained at least arguably the best player in the league through 35. Then declined some at 36 and by last year was down to around 10th in the league. Of course LeBron was starting from a higher spot, with KD already declining down to near #10 already last season so the declines go further down (IMO the gap from #1 to #10 is about as big as #10 to #30-#40.

Chronz · Post #5 » by **Chronz** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 3:03 am

Dominique Wilkins is the only comparable guy who came back from the Achilles injury with arguably a more complete game but after year 2 of his return he fell off a cliff

Cavsfansince84 · Post #6 » by **Cavsfansince84** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 3:28 am

TinmanZBoy wrote:KD has two good years left, the rest will be riddled with injuries

You do realize that he hasn't played in over 55g in a regular season since 2019 right? I mean he might have two good years left but he hasn't been fully healthy in over 3 years so chances are he won't be from here on out.

Raps in 4 · Post #7 » by **Raps in 4** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 3:34 am

34 - Still elite
35 - Still very good but noticeably declining
36 - Still a good player, but can no longer be the primary scoring option on a contender
37 - Rapid decline is in full swing

He's also going to miss a lot of games.

LBJKB24MJ23 · Post #8 » by **LBJKB24MJ23** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 3:35 am

Not going to like it one bit. You’re definitely not getting your moneys worth when it comes to games played and full season production.

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Godaddycurse · Post #9 » by **Godaddycurse** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 3:38 am

Assuming decent health, which imo is a BIG if:

34 - top 15
35 - top 20-25
36 - top 30
37 - non all star

Chuck Everett · Post #10 » by **Chuck Everett** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 4:33 am

Not title worthy. The market for him is not what he thinks. He admitted that he doesn't want to lead a team. Injury prone, thin-skinned and doesn't want to be a leader, while paid over 40 million a year. Must be nice.

djsunyc · Post #11 » by **djsunyc** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 4:58 am

Chuck Everett wrote:Not title worthy. The market for him is not what he thinks. He admitted that he doesn't want to lead a team. Injury prone, thin-skinned and doesn't want to be a leader, while paid over 40 million a year. Must be nice.

surprisingly, i think the 40 mil pricetag is what's hurting him the most.

there's only a few of those 40+ mil contracts out there now so making a deal work without gutting your team is really tough.

i think when more contracts get into the 30+ mil range for multiple players on one team, then you'll see more deals.

MotownMadness · Post #12 » by **MotownMadness** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:04 am

djsunyc wrote:
Chuck Everett wrote:Not title worthy. The market for him is not what he thinks. He admitted that he doesn't want to lead a team. Injury prone, thin-skinned and doesn't want to be a leader, while paid over 40 million a year. Must be nice.

surprisingly, i think the 40 mil pricetag is what's hurting him the most.

there's only a few of those 40+ mil contracts out there now so making a deal work without gutting your team is really tough.

i think when more contracts get into the 30+ mil range for multiple players on one team, then you'll see more deals.

Lots of teams could trade for him but it just doesn't make sense to gut your youth and only have Durant on your team.

JimmyPlopper · Post #13 » by **JimmyPlopper** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:08 am

Wizards make the most sense for a few reasons.

They are already facing perpetual mediocrity with the Beal deal. Durant gives him a teammate who can take pressure of Beal and he is from DMV area so a bit of a homecoming for him. Wizards have picks, prospects, and contracts to make it work

KodiakBear · Post #14 » by **KodiakBear** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:10 am

I wouldn't trade for him, especially with what the Nets are asking for. Look at his stint in Brooklyn; missed an entire season, missed a half a season, missed a third of the season. You really expect Durant going forward will play most of the year and play at a high level in the postseason? More injuries and he will drop off over the next few years. The idea that he would be the missing piece on some team that is close with what they would have to give up to get him is laughable.

He is better off staying in Brooklyn and trying to win there. He won't have a better shot elsewhere with what a team would have to give Brooklyn. Likely nobody will give up much to get him anyway.

jlokine · Post #15 » by **jlokine** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:17 am

kobe's last year played 66 games scoring 17ppg with team record 17-65..

not sure if that's comparable. granted kobe torn his achilles at a later stage than durant. and load management was less of a thing even in kobe's final years in the league. so maybe they can preserve durant's health a little better moving forward with rest and recovery.

Beethoven · Post #16 » by **Beethoven** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:24 am

The dude I don't think will age well during this contract.

celticfan42487 · Post #17 » by **celticfan42487** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:35 am

I think 2 years of being a #1 option on a championship team is a reasonable expectation.

After that whether it's age or trade requests you're not likely to keep him around.

So if I'm a GM selling this I'm really looking at KD as someone I'm trading for 2 years.

After all it's the superstar circle jerk era so their contract length is meaningless to being able to keep a player on a team.

This makes things precarious for GMs because they're going all in and then likely not going to be kept around for the rebuild unless they win a ring.

Also almost all teams that are contending aren't planning to flame out in 2 seasons.

For example the Celtics could comfortably offer a Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams, and like 3 first rounders package. But in doing so looking down the road in 2 years they have Tatum's contract running out and no future to sell him on. So you're going all in and kind of also even if you win losing Tatum. Meanwhile they can go for their cake and eat it too by hoping to get lucky with the current core and when it comes time for Tatum with a year left to demand a trade give him something to think about his chances of finding a better contender to be on for the next 5 years of his career.

Most contenders have this problem, with the exception of perhaps the Lakers and Suns with CP3 and LeBron.

One could argue the Clippers are another good fit with PG and Kawhi being 31/32 each and having major injuries so maybe you wouldn't expect them to be elite after 2 more years themselves. But again it's a hell of a risk for a GM when the clock isn't audible clicking on your stars the way LeBron and CP3 are.

And then you have to ask yourself if KD really is elite... then how the hell was he the only first option to get shut down completely by Tatum and the Celtics in the playoffs? That's supposed to be impossible right? Did the decline happen last year but only to the extent that playoff defense could expose it and nothing else. That's a real scary thought... that he's no longer a sure fire #1 option on a championship winning team any longer.

cam24thomas · Post #18 » by **cam24thomas** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:56 am

KD will be a lot better in the playoffs if he skips a large portion of the regular season.
So saying he won't play enough games to be worthy of his contract, is a contradiction of reality.
The less he plays, the more worthy he'll be of his contract, because he'll be more rested and more able to dominate the playoffs.

DaddyCool19 · Post #19 » by **DaddyCool19** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:58 am

Will probably miss 20-30 games per year.

The High Cyde · Post #20 » by **The High Cyde** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:16 am

ben10simmons wrote:KD will be a lot better in the playoffs if he skips a large portion of the regular season.
So saying he won't play enough games to be worthy of his contract, is a contradiction of reality.
The less he plays, the more worthy he'll be of his contract, because he'll be more rested and more able to dominate the playoffs.

Whatever team trades for him will have gut the roster, raising the need for Durant to perform consistently in the RS to just make the playoffs. If he half asses it he’ll just get knocked out by a higher seeded and more balanced team.