2026 Pick Swap Risky, but Probably Nothing

[shrink]

I was reviewing the pick protections on the 2026 pick swap, and it makes me feel pretty confident it won’t convey,

Utah sends 2024 first round draft pick to Oklahoma City
Utah's 1st round pick to Oklahoma City protected for selections 1-10 in 2024, 1-10 in 2025 and 1-8 in 2026 (if Utah has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Oklahoma City by 2026, then Utah's obligation to Oklahoma City will be extinguished) [Oklahoma City-Utah, 7/30/2021; Oklahoma City-Utah, 1/4/2022]

Utah receives 2026 first round draft pick from Minnesota or Cleveland (swap, Utah outgoing)
If Utah has conveyed a 1st round pick to Oklahoma City by 2025, then Utah has the right to swap its 2026 1st round pick for Minnesota's 2026 1st round pick; if Utah has not conveyed its pick to Oklahoma City by 2025, then Utah has the right to swap its pick protected for selections 9-30 for the Minnesota pick; in accordance with other conditions, Utah also has the right to swap picks with Cleveland (if the Utah pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyable, then Minnesota's and Cleveland's obligations to Utah will be extinguished) [Minnesota-Utah, 7/6/2022; Cleveland-Utah, 9/3/2022]

I know the NBA can change fast, but I think the odds here are very high that this swap is worth nothing.

First, UTA owes OKC a pick. I think it’s very likely they keep their top 10 protected pick in 2024 and 2025. By 2026, will they still be in the bottom 8? If not, they need to send that pick to OKC, so they can’t swap it with us.

Next, Utah burned it to the ground trading Gobert and Mitchell, and a lot of the value they are getting back are in picks coming either after 2026, or earlier picks that are unlikely to lead to winning basketball in 2026. And even if their youngsters over-produce, it’s unlikely they do better than MIN, who have players with more experience. If UTAH is worse than MIN, no pick swap.

And on top of that, UTA has only one pick to swap, If CLE is the worst of three teams, again, there’s no swap with MIN.

Really, the only way this hurts us if UTA does better very quickly, to convey the pick to OKC (and a better Utah makes the swap less costly), or if Utah is in the Bottom 8 in 2026, and we’re even worse than that. To me, those odds are in the single digits.

[winforlose]

I was reviewing the pick protections on the 2026 pick swap, and it makes me feel pretty confident it won’t convey,

Utah sends 2024 first round draft pick to Oklahoma City
Utah's 1st round pick to Oklahoma City protected for selections 1-10 in 2024, 1-10 in 2025 and 1-8 in 2026 (if Utah has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Oklahoma City by 2026, then Utah's obligation to Oklahoma City will be extinguished) [Oklahoma City-Utah, 7/30/2021; Oklahoma City-Utah, 1/4/2022]

Utah receives 2026 first round draft pick from Minnesota or Cleveland (swap, Utah outgoing)
If Utah has conveyed a 1st round pick to Oklahoma City by 2025, then Utah has the right to swap its 2026 1st round pick for Minnesota's 2026 1st round pick; if Utah has not conveyed its pick to Oklahoma City by 2025, then Utah has the right to swap its pick protected for selections 9-30 for the Minnesota pick; in accordance with other conditions, Utah also has the right to swap picks with Cleveland (if the Utah pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyable, then Minnesota's and Cleveland's obligations to Utah will be extinguished) [Minnesota-Utah, 7/6/2022; Cleveland-Utah, 9/3/2022]

I know the NBA can change fast, but I think the odds here are very high that this swap is worth nothing.

First, UTA owes OKC a pick. I think it’s very likely they keep their top 10 protected pick in 2024 and 2025. By 2026, will they still be in the bottom 8? If not, they need to send that pick to OKC, so they can’t swap it with us.

Next, Utah burned it to the ground trading Gobert and Mitchell, and a lot of the value they are getting back are in picks coming either after 2026, or earlier picks that are unlikely to lead to winning basketball in 2026. And even if their youngsters over-produce, it’s unlikely they do better than MIN, who have players with more experience. If UTAH is worse than MIN, no pick swap.

And on top of that, UTA has only one pick to swap, If CLE is the worst of three teams, again, there’s no swap with MIN.

Really, the only way this hurts us if UTA does better very quickly, to convey the pick to OKC (and a better Utah makes the swap less costly), or if Utah is in the Bottom 8 in 2026, and we’re even worse than that. To me, those odds are in the single digits.

The way I see it the swap hurts if injuries cripple us. Ant tears an ACL and KAT misses a ton of time with injury X. Now we are a bottom team and the Jazz are still bad but not as bad. We win the lottery but end up in spot 8 because Utah kept their pick and was not as badly injured. But this is the literal worst case scenario as our pick cannot be swapped below 8 as you explain above.

[shrink]

I see it as a very slim chance for a very painful cost.

It’s true that the NBA changes fast, but even a single crippling injury is unlikely to make us worse than Utah - maybe even two. And there is always the chance CLE could have that crippling injury, or their younger players could fail to develop.

I think we would need to fall into the lottery, then be unfortunate enough to “win” a top four pick in that 2026 lottery, for it to really sting.

And even then, this is a swap. Even if we are worse than a bad Utah, Utah is still bad. We wouldn’t just lose a great pick, we’d downgrade it, and just receive a good one from Utah (likely top 8).

I’ve decided not to sweat that pick swap, when I review the trade package we gave up. We just need to keep winning, and I think we will.

[jscott]

Agreed and honestly I feel the same about the 24 swap, the 28 swap, and the top 5 protected 29. At most we give up one of those picks in my opinion and it would probably be the protected 29 which should still be in the mid to lower teens.

[Biff Cooper]

Agreed and honestly I feel the same about the 24 swap, the 28 swap, and the top 5 protected 29. At most we give up one of those picks in my opinion and it would probably be the protected 29 which should still be in the mid to lower teens.

Except the 24 and 28 are not swaps in this deal

[winforlose]

I see it as a very slim chance for a very painful cost.

It’s true that the NBA changes fast, but even a single crippling injury is unlikely to make us worse than Utah - maybe even two. And there is always the chance CLE could have that crippling injury, or their younger players could fail to develop.

I think we would need to fall into the lottery, then be unfortunate enough to “win” a top four pick in that 2026 lottery, for it to really sting.

And even then, this is a swap. Even if we are worse than a bad Utah, Utah is still bad. We wouldn’t just lose a great pick, we’d downgrade it, and just receive a good one from Utah (likely top 8).

I’ve decided not to sweat that pick swap, when I review the trade package we gave up. We just need to keep winning, and I think we will.

As you explained it, it cannot be worse than 8 because 9-30 belongs to someone else. So our total worst case scenario is trading pick 1 for pick 8. That being said, it could be as minor as going from 7 to 8 or not switching at all.

[younggunsmn]

4 years is an eternity. Our core will be 4 years older, Gobert 34, KAT approaching 30.
Utah will have 3 additional years of lottery picks, trades, and cap space. The cupboard is certainly not bare.
That's not even taking injuries into consideration.

IF Utah drafts in the top 10 in both 24/25, then the worst the '26 swap could drop us to would be 8th.
I think it's less than 50% that scenario unfolds.

Pick swaps are stupid and desperate. The league should outlaw them in the next CBA.
They're just a circumvention of the purpose of the Stepien Rule.

They should add a 3rd round of untradeable draft picks for college/gleague players only and allow teams an additional 2 way attached to that player.

[shrink]

I see it as a very slim chance for a very painful cost.

It’s true that the NBA changes fast, but even a single crippling injury is unlikely to make us worse than Utah - maybe even two. And there is always the chance CLE could have that crippling injury, or their younger players could fail to develop.

I think we would need to fall into the lottery, then be unfortunate enough to “win” a top four pick in that 2026 lottery, for it to really sting.

And even then, this is a swap. Even if we are worse than a bad Utah, Utah is still bad. We wouldn’t just lose a great pick, we’d downgrade it, and just receive a good one from Utah (likely top 8).

I’ve decided not to sweat that pick swap, when I review the trade package we gave up. We just need to keep winning, and I think we will.

As you explained it, it cannot be worse than 8 because 9-30 belongs to someone else. So our total worst case scenario is trading pick 1 for pick 8. That being said, it could be as minor as going from 7 to 8 or not switching at all.

Yes, unless they pay off that pick to OKC in a previous year. But since those are both top 10 protected …

[winforlose]

I see it as a very slim chance for a very painful cost.

It’s true that the NBA changes fast, but even a single crippling injury is unlikely to make us worse than Utah - maybe even two. And there is always the chance CLE could have that crippling injury, or their younger players could fail to develop.

I think we would need to fall into the lottery, then be unfortunate enough to “win” a top four pick in that 2026 lottery, for it to really sting.

And even then, this is a swap. Even if we are worse than a bad Utah, Utah is still bad. We wouldn’t just lose a great pick, we’d downgrade it, and just receive a good one from Utah (likely top 8).

I’ve decided not to sweat that pick swap, when I review the trade package we gave up. We just need to keep winning, and I think we will.

As you explained it, it cannot be worse than 8 because 9-30 belongs to someone else. So our total worst case scenario is trading pick 1 for pick 8. That being said, it could be as minor as going from 7 to 8 or not switching at all.

Yes, unless they pay off that pick to OKC in a previous year. But since those are both top 10 protected …

Yeah, I don’t see that happening either. Utah will tanking for the #1 pick for at least the next 3 years.