Will the Bulls match a poison pill contract for Ayo?

[Taj FTW]

I really feel like a team is going to force the Bulls hand to sign a poison pill contract with Ayo. Some team will take the gamble with how he has looked and developed. Do you see the Bulls matching it? I sure as hell hope so.

[DxC17]

I don't see why they wouldn't. They have no compelling reason to let Ayo go because he fits with the organization's timeline the best (contributing to the current core + the next).

What's going to a tough pill to swallow (pun slightly intended) is that re-signing Ayo is going to limit what other moves we're able to make with the roster. In this scenario we will need to use the full non-taxpayer MLE on Ayo in the off-season. We are projected to be almost $42 million under the tax line, and can have a little more than $16 million in practical cap space if we decline all the holds (letting Vuc & Coby walk) & Drummond + DJJ decline their player options. Assuming Ayo needs the full MLE, we'll have $30 million in wiggle room under the tax.

His year 3 & year 4 salaries will come after DeMar & Lonzo's deals are up so no worries there. The poison pill in this case is actually a blessing in disguise. At that point Zach & Ayo will be the only big contracts on the payroll.

I know there's ways to go over the cap to sign FAs without having bird rights through S&Ts, inbound & outbound (eg Vuc, not sure if RFA like Coby can be S&T), but it's likely our best shot at maintaining similar roster strength next year is bringing as many guys back as possible including Vuc & potentially Coby too.

I have a feeling Drummond's player option is going to be a pivotal decision for the team.

[RealityBBall]

Chinese premier Zhou Enlai was once asked what he thought the effect of the French Revolution was (some 200 years earlier.) He answered, "Too soon to tell." Yes, there is almost certainly a translation error in this story but the point remains.

[sco]

I think it comes down to Ball. Does Ball come back and show he's durable? Depending on (if or) when Ball comes back, Ayo's value may drop meaningfully if his minutes/stats drop for most of the season, and the risk of someone ponying up a 4/$40M deal for Ayo goes down. Conversely (and more likely), if Ball cannot dispel AKME doubts of his durability, the Bulls will be forced to match.

On the topic, two questions:

1) Can someone confirm Ayo's max (poison pill) deal. IIRC, it was 4/$40M?
2) What is the cap/tax treatment of that deal by year over the life of deal?

[DuckIII]

I really feel like a team is going to force the Bulls hand to sign a poison pill contract with Ayo. Some team will take the gamble with how he has looked and developed. Do you see the Bulls matching it? I sure as hell hope so.

It’s not a gamble at this point so they’d damn well better. Particularly since AK appears to be very comfortable operating over the cap and the FO has blessed that approach.

[DuckIII]

I think it comes down to Ball. Does Ball come back and show he's durable? Depending on (if or) when Ball comes back, Ayo's value may drop meaningfully if his minutes/stats drop for most of the season, and the risk of someone ponying up a 4/$40M deal for Ayo goes down. Conversely (and more likely), if Ball cannot dispel AKME doubts of his durability, the Bulls will be forced to match.

On the topic, two questions:

1) Can someone confirm Ayo's max (poison pill) deal. IIRC, it was 4/$40M?
2) What is the cap/tax treatment of that deal by year over the life of deal?

Is that correct? Ayo at 4/40 would be an absolute steal.

[sco]

I think it comes down to Ball. Does Ball come back and show he's durable? Depending on (if or) when Ball comes back, Ayo's value may drop meaningfully if his minutes/stats drop for most of the season, and the risk of someone ponying up a 4/$40M deal for Ayo goes down. Conversely (and more likely), if Ball cannot dispel AKME doubts of his durability, the Bulls will be forced to match.

On the topic, two questions:

1) Can someone confirm Ayo's max (poison pill) deal. IIRC, it was 4/$40M?
2) What is the cap/tax treatment of that deal by year over the life of deal?

Is that correct? Ayo at 4/40 would be an absolute steal.

I just looked on the Capulator and it seems like 3/$50, with a $35M year 3 cap hit, but I may be wrong.

[kodo]

By the time the backloaded portion of an Ayo contract kicks in, Derozan ($28M) and Vuc ($22M) could easily be gone. If they are resigned, that means the team is doing extremely well and the org has said they'll pay tax for a contender.

Patrick & Coby are also eating up $15M this year, and Patrick gets a raise to $10M next year. You could easily drop one or both and not change our wins.

The fact that the Bulls have such disappointing high picks does free up a lot of money. Both short term & long term, I don't think it's difficult to keep Ayo.

[Taj FTW]

I think it comes down to Ball. Does Ball come back and show he's durable? Depending on (if or) when Ball comes back, Ayo's value may drop meaningfully if his minutes/stats drop for most of the season, and the risk of someone ponying up a 4/$40M deal for Ayo goes down. Conversely (and more likely), if Ball cannot dispel AKME doubts of his durability, the Bulls will be forced to match.

On the topic, two questions:

1) Can someone confirm Ayo's max (poison pill) deal. IIRC, it was 4/$40M?
2) What is the cap/tax treatment of that deal by year over the life of deal?

Is that correct? Ayo at 4/40 would be an absolute steal.

I just looked on the Capulator and it seems like 3/$50, with a $35M year 3 cap hit, but I may be wrong.

For some reason I thought it was a 4 year deal. I'm probably wrong though.

[sco]

Is that correct? Ayo at 4/40 would be an absolute steal.

I just looked on the Capulator and it seems like 3/$50, with a $35M year 3 cap hit, but I may be wrong.

For some reason I thought it was a 4 year deal. I'm probably wrong though.

If so, it's 4/$85 according to capulator.

[Taj FTW]

I just looked on the Capulator and it seems like 3/$50, with a $35M year 3 cap hit, but I may be wrong.

For some reason I thought it was a 4 year deal. I'm probably wrong though.

If so, it's 4/$85 according to capulator.

That's what I was thinking when I made this, but I have no idea how the 2-year deal on a 2nd rounder impacts his deal.

[meekrab]

Hopefully we negotiate a deal to keep him here before he goes looking for a poison pill.

Chinese premier Zhou Enlai was once asked what he thought the effect of the French Revolution was (some 200 years earlier.) He answered, "Too soon to tell." Yes, there is almost certainly a translation error in this story but the point remains.

Reminds me of the story of the Zen master and the little boy.

Watch on YouTube

[DASMACKDOWN]

I think you resign him for whatever the market rate is and make decisions later.

There are just too many questions on the health of Lonzo.

At this point though, its seems like a mortal lock.

[League Circles]

Is amnesty still an available CBA strategy? If so, I can potentially see Ball being dumped with it, or stretch waived, if we sign Ayo long term.

[meekrab]

Is amnesty still an available CBA strategy? If so, I can potentially see Ball being dumped with it, or stretch waived, if we sign Ayo long term.

Nope, and it only applied to contracts signed in the previous CBA anyway.

[Flopper]

Assuming risk of chronic reinjury is low with Ball, I think you match Ayo and then maybe look at moving Caruso since he fills a similar role and has extremely high value relative to his contact.

[RealityBBall]

Assuming risk of chronic reinjury is low with Ball, I think you match Ayo and then maybe look at moving Caruso since he fills a similar role and has extremely high value relative to his contact.

Seems to me this is why you keep Caruso rather than trade. His relative value essentially creates larger cap space without the tax. Sort of like a good rookie contract.

[dougthonus]

I think it comes down to Ball. Does Ball come back and show he's durable? Depending on (if or) when Ball comes back, Ayo's value may drop meaningfully if his minutes/stats drop for most of the season, and the risk of someone ponying up a 4/$40M deal for Ayo goes down. Conversely (and more likely), if Ball cannot dispel AKME doubts of his durability, the Bulls will be forced to match.

On the topic, two questions:

1) Can someone confirm Ayo's max (poison pill) deal. IIRC, it was 4/$40M?
2) What is the cap/tax treatment of that deal by year over the life of deal?

Here's my cap sheet for general Bulls info:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1793l_bV8WX4a6AO4FyeLcDWBTrifqDagngIaTc00RWQ/edit#gid=0

Max deal is 4/91
Structure is: $11,014,500, $11,565,225, $33,500,000, $35,007,500

The max the Bulls can offer is the MLE, the above structure is based on another team offering him the max they can which is 2 years at the MLE and then the 3rd year the current max salary and the 4th year being the current max salary + raise.

[bad knees]

Here's the challenge. I'm happy to have someone explain where I am off, but I don't think I am.

Because the Bulls are operating over the cap, they need a salary cap exception in order to sign Ayo. Normally that is not an issue because the Bulls would have his Bird rights, which lets us offer him anything up to the maximum salary. But because he has a two-year contract, the Bird exception is not available and the only applicable exception is the Early Bird exception, which limits the contract that we can offer him to one starting at "105 percent of the average salary for the previous season," which is a starting salary of about $10 M. See Larry Coons NBA CBA FAQ at question 25. http://cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25

The only exception to this is the "Gilbert Arenas provision." This applies only if another team signs Ayo to an offer sheet that includes an average salary that is greater than what the Bulls could offer. In order for the other team to offer this contract, they would have to have the cap space to make such an offer. The maximum amount that another team could offer is: first year of ~ 10 M; second year of ~10.5 M (10 M plus a 5% raise); third year of ~ $30.5 M (max salary for a player with six or less years in the league - 25% of the projected $122 M cap); fourth year of ~ $32 M ($30 M plus a 5% raise). So a total offer sheet of 4/83, for an average salary of $20.75 M. In order to give Ayo this max offer sheet, the other team would have to have $20.75 M in cap space. See Larry Coons NBA CBA FAQ at question 43. http://cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q43

If Ayo signs such an offer sheet, then the Bulls can use the Gilbert Arenas provision to match the offer sheet. They can definitely keep him. If the Bulls do re-sign him, however, they are stuck with a cap hit of ~ 10/10.5/30.5/32. The jump in the third and fourth year salaries is the "poison pill." The other team could spread out the cap hit the way a normal 4/83 contract is structured.

The bump in the cap hit in years 3 and 4 is not the biggest deal because everyone is expecting the cap to increase substantially in what would be year 3 due to the new tv contract coming into effect that year. But here's the thing - the way I read this, the only way the Bulls can give Ayo anything over ~4/40 is if he first goes out and signs an offer sheet with another team, and at that point, the only thing the Bulls can do is to match the offer sheet. In other words, the Bulls can't just offer 4/60 or whatever the Bulls and Ayo think is fair. For Ayo to get anything from the Bulls over ~4/40, the Bulls are at the mercy of whatever Ayo negotiates with another team, and they are stuck with the poison pill contract. There is no in-between option.

I am happy to have someone explain why the above is not true, as I can see another team using this situation to really screw us over. They would have to tie up their cap space to do it, but I could definitely see it happening, especially with a team with a lot of cap space like SAS or HOU. This situation also creates risks and challenges for Ayo - I presume he wants to stay with the Bulls if he can get a fair salary, but he will have to go get an offer sheet from some bad team in another city in order to do it. It's altogether a potentially very messy situation.

Edit: I see Doug has slightly higher numbers for what the max salary that some other team could offer Ayo. His math is probably right - there are some complex formulas and projections at work. But the overall point of my post stands, I believe.

[meekrab]

Max deal is 4/91
Structure is: $11,014,500, $11,565,225, $33,500,000, $35,007,500

I'm not *sure* another team would think Ayo is worth 23 million a year but it's not out of the realm of possibility. That's like Terry Rozier, Spencer Dinwiddie, Fred VanVleet type money.

If Ayo signs such an offer sheet, then the Bulls can use the Gilbert Arenas provision to match the offer sheet. They can definitely keep him. If the Bulls do re-sign him, however, they are stuck with a cap hit of ~ 10/10.5/30.5/32. The jump in the third and fourth year salaries is the "poison pill." The other team could spread out the cap hit the way a normal 4/83 contract is structured.

Note that the Gilbert Arenas provision is not a salary cap exception, you have to use the Full MLE to match the contract (or the early bird exception if 105% of the average salary is enough), with all the accompanying restrictions that entails. It's just a limit to the first-year salary the offer sheet can have.