Big Man Prospects in Today's Game

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Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#1 » by Duke4life831 » Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:38 pm

I know this is a little different of a thread for here but curious how people view Big man prospects. And I want to be clear, when I say big man prospects, Im not talking guys like Paolo. Im talking guys like Wiseman, Duren, Mobley, Hayes and so on. So essentially big guys with no point forward kind of skill set. Is there really any value to these kinds of players anymore when it comes to top 10-lotto wise.

Here are a list of bigs with no point forward kind of skill set taken in the lotto as of late.

Duren
Mobley
Wiseman
Jalen Smith
Hayes
Ayton
Bagley
Bamba
WCJ
Zach Collins

Where are the wins here? Even someone like Mobley who I think the majority of people are high on, is his value really worth a top 3 pick with the way he is being used? It seems like if you dont have a point forward kind of skill set in today's NBA you immediately get relegated to defensive/lob threat. Is the value really all that great compared to getting guys like

Koloko (2nd round)
Gafford (2nd round)
Bol Bol (2nd round)
Claxton (2nd round)
Williams (27th pick)
Robinson (2nd round)

Again Im a fan of guys like Mobley, but ya he's 3rd on his own team in touches and the only reason he isnt 4th at the moment is because Garland has missed time.

Is there any lotto value whatsoever for guys that dont have some kind of on ball perimeter skill set in today's NBA?
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#2 » by clyde21 » Mon Oct 31, 2022 5:40 pm

Mobley is clearly the only here that's worth it and will be worth it moving forward otherwise majority of the guys guys were overdrafted and didn't deserve to be drafted anywhere near were they were...i also wouldn't put Mobley in the same category as guys like Bagley, Wiseman or Hayes.

I was very high on Bamba tho when he was coming out but I course corrected my stance on these archetypes since then
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#3 » by Duke4life831 » Mon Oct 31, 2022 5:49 pm

clyde21 wrote:Mobley is clearly the only here that's worth it and will be worth it moving forward otherwise majority of the guys guys were overdrafted and didn't deserve to be drafted anywhere near were they were...i also wouldn't put Mobley in the same category as guys like Bagley, Wiseman or Hayes.

I was very high on Bamba tho when he was coming out but I course corrected my stance on these archetypes since then


My thing with Mobley is, even if he has extra skills, they arent being featured. Once Garland comes back he's going to be 4th on the team in touches. Any extra skills that he may have (which I think he has) CLE isnt looking to use them. CLE is still using him in a very limited way on the offensive end. And with Mitchell, Garland, and LeVert all on the roster, I dont see his role changing all that much on the offensive end.

Which brings me back to my point, if youre going to relegate these guys to essentially a defensive/PnR lob threat role. Is it really worth using a lotto pick on them, even if they do have more skills if teams dont have any interest in using them. Because I agree, there is a big skill difference between Mobley and a lot of guys on this list, but the role he is being asked really isnt that different.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#4 » by clyde21 » Mon Oct 31, 2022 5:51 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:
clyde21 wrote:Mobley is clearly the only here that's worth it and will be worth it moving forward otherwise majority of the guys guys were overdrafted and didn't deserve to be drafted anywhere near were they were...i also wouldn't put Mobley in the same category as guys like Bagley, Wiseman or Hayes.

I was very high on Bamba tho when he was coming out but I course corrected my stance on these archetypes since then


My thing with Mobley is, even if he has extra skills, they arent being featured. Once Garland comes back he's going to be 4th on the team in touches. Any extra skills that he may have (which I think he has) CLE isnt looking to use them. CLE is still using him in a very limited way on the offensive end. And with Mitchell, Garland, and LeVert all on the roster, I dont see his role changing all that much on the offensive end.

Which brings me back to my point, if youre going to relegate these guys to essentially a defensive/PnR lob threat role. Is it really worth using a lotto pick on them, even if they do have more skills if teams dont have any interest in using them. Because I agree, there is a big skill difference between Mobley and a lot of guys on this list, but the role he is being asked really isnt that different.


i agree about not featuring Mobley enough but I think that's more a Cleveland issue than Mobley. not only will Mitchell/Garland absorb bulk of the usage he also has to compete with inside looks with Allen.

naturally on-ball guys will get the majority of the looks and usage but that doesn't necessarily make them better or more important than a guy like Mobley.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#5 » by The-Power » Mon Oct 31, 2022 5:54 pm

You could add Mark Williams to that list. Drafted 15th (so just outside the lottery) and currently can't get off the bench in Charlotte (whose draft strategy I fail to see but that's a different matter). But yeah, relatively unskilled bigs seem to rarely outplay their draft spots – probably because one of the only realistic ways to do so is to develop into a top-tier defender and that is just very difficult to do in the NBA.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#6 » by Duke4life831 » Mon Oct 31, 2022 6:10 pm

clyde21 wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
clyde21 wrote:Mobley is clearly the only here that's worth it and will be worth it moving forward otherwise majority of the guys guys were overdrafted and didn't deserve to be drafted anywhere near were they were...i also wouldn't put Mobley in the same category as guys like Bagley, Wiseman or Hayes.

I was very high on Bamba tho when he was coming out but I course corrected my stance on these archetypes since then


My thing with Mobley is, even if he has extra skills, they arent being featured. Once Garland comes back he's going to be 4th on the team in touches. Any extra skills that he may have (which I think he has) CLE isnt looking to use them. CLE is still using him in a very limited way on the offensive end. And with Mitchell, Garland, and LeVert all on the roster, I dont see his role changing all that much on the offensive end.

Which brings me back to my point, if youre going to relegate these guys to essentially a defensive/PnR lob threat role. Is it really worth using a lotto pick on them, even if they do have more skills if teams dont have any interest in using them. Because I agree, there is a big skill difference between Mobley and a lot of guys on this list, but the role he is being asked really isnt that different.


i agree about not featuring Mobley enough but I think that's more a Cleveland issue than Mobley. not only will Mitchell/Garland absorb bulk of the usage he also has to compete with inside looks with Allen.

naturally on-ball guys will get the majority of the looks and usage but that doesn't necessarily make them better or more important than a guy like Mobley.


My thing is more the value than the importance. Dont get me wrong, Im not trying to undersell the importance of a top tier defensive big. You can find elite defensive bigs from the mid 20s on in the draft.

I guess my main question with Mobley is, is it just a CLE thing deciding to underutilize him on the offensive end, or is that the legit trend in the NBA. If you dont have some kind of point skills, youre going to be relegated to this kind of role. And if that is the case, is it worth taking Mobley when you can get guys like Jarrett Allen, Gobert, Williams in the draft 20 plus picks in?

Because again I agree, the main reason I started this thread was because of Mobley. It was the fact that I do think Mobley has more skills compared to all of these guys. But CLE knowing what they had in him, still went out and got LeVert and got Mitchell and essentially guaranteed relegating Mobley into a very limited offensive role.

So ya Im just wondering is there any room in today's NBA for that kind of player. Or do you either have to have some kind of perimeter point skills, or just a freak offensive talent to not be relegated to low USG PnR/Pick and Pop big.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#7 » by Duke4life831 » Mon Oct 31, 2022 6:11 pm

The-Power wrote:You could add Mark Williams to that list. Drafted 15th (so just outside the lottery) and currently can't get off the bench in Charlotte (whose draft strategy I fail to see but that's a different matter). But yeah, relatively unskilled bigs seem to rarely outplay their draft spots – probably because one of the only realistic ways to do so is to develop into a top-tier defender and that is just very difficult to do in the NBA.


Yup another example. I was looking strictly at lotto guys, but ya Mark at 15 (who I was extremely high on) is another example.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#8 » by clyde21 » Mon Oct 31, 2022 6:45 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:
clyde21 wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
My thing with Mobley is, even if he has extra skills, they arent being featured. Once Garland comes back he's going to be 4th on the team in touches. Any extra skills that he may have (which I think he has) CLE isnt looking to use them. CLE is still using him in a very limited way on the offensive end. And with Mitchell, Garland, and LeVert all on the roster, I dont see his role changing all that much on the offensive end.

Which brings me back to my point, if youre going to relegate these guys to essentially a defensive/PnR lob threat role. Is it really worth using a lotto pick on them, even if they do have more skills if teams dont have any interest in using them. Because I agree, there is a big skill difference between Mobley and a lot of guys on this list, but the role he is being asked really isnt that different.


i agree about not featuring Mobley enough but I think that's more a Cleveland issue than Mobley. not only will Mitchell/Garland absorb bulk of the usage he also has to compete with inside looks with Allen.

naturally on-ball guys will get the majority of the looks and usage but that doesn't necessarily make them better or more important than a guy like Mobley.


I guess my main question with Mobley is, is it just a CLE thing deciding to underutilize him on the offensive end, or is that the legit trend in the NBA. If you dont have some kind of point skills, youre going to be relegated to this kind of role. And if that is the case, is it worth taking Mobley when you can get guys like Jarrett Allen, Gobert, Williams in the draft 20 plus picks in?


well yea - that's the inherent problem of not being an on-ball guy for any player. how much does the value scale? i think Mobley's case it's gonna scale well because of everything he does for you defensively and his positional versatility, but he's the special case for these bigs and it's why I had him top in the 21 class but a guy like Wiseman was ranked 10th for me.

that said, he HAS to be a special defender to make that value work. the margin of error for non on-ball guys is definitely smaller than a guy like Cade for example.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#9 » by Duke4life831 » Mon Oct 31, 2022 7:26 pm

clyde21 wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
clyde21 wrote:
i agree about not featuring Mobley enough but I think that's more a Cleveland issue than Mobley. not only will Mitchell/Garland absorb bulk of the usage he also has to compete with inside looks with Allen.

naturally on-ball guys will get the majority of the looks and usage but that doesn't necessarily make them better or more important than a guy like Mobley.


I guess my main question with Mobley is, is it just a CLE thing deciding to underutilize him on the offensive end, or is that the legit trend in the NBA. If you dont have some kind of point skills, youre going to be relegated to this kind of role. And if that is the case, is it worth taking Mobley when you can get guys like Jarrett Allen, Gobert, Williams in the draft 20 plus picks in?


well yea - that's the inherent problem of not being an on-ball guy for any player. how much does the value scale? i think Mobley's case it's gonna scale well because of everything he does for you defensively and his positional versatility, but he's the special case for these bigs and it's why I had him top in the 21 class but a guy like Wiseman was ranked 10th for me.

that said, he HAS to be a special defender to make that value work. the margin of error for non on-ball guys is definitely smaller than a guy like Cade for example.


Ya and I think that is the case that Im seeing for myself. There has to be some kind of elite/freakish level skill set for a big to be worth taking high. Its like you either have to be a freak offensive player like Jokic, pretty damn close to elite on both ends like Embiid, or a freak defensive player to make it worth taking them high.

If that is the case (which I think it is now), that leaves such little amount of big men worth even being in the discussion for most draft years. Like I had already gotten to this point when it came to players like Jaxson Hayes and so on. But ya Im pretty much at the point of unless youre a freak at something or have the ability to bring the ball up and run the offense, not looking at you until at the earliest in the 20s. Because even if you got better skills than guys like a Robert Williams, dont matter because if they arent elite no team is going to use them.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#10 » by NO-KG-AI » Tue Nov 1, 2022 3:58 am

The biggest problem here is that most of these guys just aren't good at all, not just because of scheme or role.

Like Jaxson Hayes for instance has shooting touch, he's as fluid and mobile as it gets for his height, he gets off the floor easy and makes ridiculous plays look easy, and he should be blocking a ton of shots and glass eating... If all that came together, he'd be an extremely valuable player and very much worth the 8th pick, even if he were a 5th option on his team.

The problem is that he doesn't actually do those things in game often enough to actually be good consistently.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#11 » by The-Power » Tue Nov 1, 2022 4:47 am

One thing I'll say is that while I agree that the upside is often not worth a high pick for bigs in particular, but it bears mentioning that most lottery picks – of all player types – end up not being anything special as NBA players.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#12 » by Chuck Everett » Tue Nov 1, 2022 8:06 am

Ayton is not valuable in today's game? Seriously? Not sure why he's on this list.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#13 » by Duke4life831 » Tue Nov 1, 2022 4:35 pm

Chuck Everett wrote:Ayton is not valuable in today's game? Seriously? Not sure why he's on this list.


I didn’t make that argument at all. I’m strictly talking value for draft position.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#14 » by clyde21 » Tue Nov 1, 2022 4:41 pm

Chuck Everett wrote:Ayton is not valuable in today's game? Seriously? Not sure why he's on this list.


how high does Ayton go in a redraft?

Luka, SGA, Trae for sure above him so no higher than 4th. i'd personally also take JJJ and Mikael Bridges above him. if Miles Bridges wasn't a complete moron him too. can also make an argument for Jalen Brunson and Michael Porter.

i think that's Duke's point. i had Ayton #1 in that class actually bc of some outlier physical tools that I thought could help him scale offensively but i think you can make a strong argument he won't even go top 5 in a redraft.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#15 » by Duke4life831 » Tue Nov 1, 2022 4:49 pm

For me the best comparison is RBs in football. I’m not making the argument that RBs are no longer valuable in the NFL. But is there the value anymore to take them with a high pick? There used to be a day not too long ago we’d see multiple RBs going top 10. Taking a RB with a top 10 pick wasn’t viewed any differently than taking any other position. It took awhile, but NFL GMs realized the value just wasn’t there anymore. RBs still had value in the game but the level of difference between RBs you could get in the 2nd and 3rd rounds vs top 10 pick was pretty minimal. You still have a freak prospect like Saquon Barkley come around, but that’s it. The combination of a passing heavier era and little value difference between early picks and 2nd and 3rd round picks has lead to RBs no longer even being looked at as early draft picks.

I just think with each passing year we are getting closer and closer to that with big men in the NBA. The value difference between big men taken early vs later is getting smaller and smaller. With the game turning more and more perimeter oriented every year, we’re seeing less and less teams having teams built around players that don’t have skill sets based around perimeter play.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#16 » by Duke4life831 » Tue Nov 1, 2022 5:00 pm

clyde21 wrote:
Chuck Everett wrote:Ayton is not valuable in today's game? Seriously? Not sure why he's on this list.


how high does Ayton go in a redraft?

Luka, SGA, Trae for sure above him so no higher than 4th. i'd personally also take JJJ and Mikael Bridges above him. if Miles Bridges wasn't a complete moron him too. can also make an argument for Jalen Brunson and Michael Porter.

i think that's Duke's point. i had Ayton #1 in that class actually bc of some outlier physical tools that I thought could help him scale offensively but i think you can make a strong argument he won't even go top 5 in a redraft.


This is exactly my point. And the 2018 draft is kind of the exact thing I’m looking at.

For example Ayton is no doubt the more skilled big man between him and Robert Williams. But given how they are used and draft position, give me Robert Williams with the 27th pick 10 out of 10 times over Ayton with the top pick.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#17 » by clyde21 » Tue Nov 1, 2022 5:04 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:For me the best comparison is RBs in football. I’m not making the argument that RBs are no longer valuable in the NFL. But is there the value anymore to take them with a high pick? There used to be a day not too long ago we’d see multiple RBs going top 10. Taking a RB with a top 10 pick wasn’t viewed any differently than taking any other position. It took awhile, but NFL GMs realized the value just wasn’t there anymore. RBs still had value in the game but the level of difference between RBs you could get in the 2nd and 3rd rounds vs top 10 pick was pretty minimal. You still have a freak prospect like Saquon Barkley come around, but that’s it. The combination of a passing heavier era and little value difference between early picks and 2nd and 3rd round picks has lead to RBs no longer even being looked at as early draft picks.

I just think with each passing year we are getting closer and closer to that with big men in the NBA. The value difference between big men taken early vs later is getting smaller and smaller. With the game turning more and more perimeter oriented every year, we’re seeing less and less teams having teams built around players that don’t have skill sets based around perimeter play.


i remember when Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson and Ronnie Brown went top 5 in the 2005 NFL draft...lol that'll never happen today.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#18 » by Duke4life831 » Tue Nov 1, 2022 5:34 pm

clyde21 wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:For me the best comparison is RBs in football. I’m not making the argument that RBs are no longer valuable in the NFL. But is there the value anymore to take them with a high pick? There used to be a day not too long ago we’d see multiple RBs going top 10. Taking a RB with a top 10 pick wasn’t viewed any differently than taking any other position. It took awhile, but NFL GMs realized the value just wasn’t there anymore. RBs still had value in the game but the level of difference between RBs you could get in the 2nd and 3rd rounds vs top 10 pick was pretty minimal. You still have a freak prospect like Saquon Barkley come around, but that’s it. The combination of a passing heavier era and little value difference between early picks and 2nd and 3rd round picks has lead to RBs no longer even being looked at as early draft picks.

I just think with each passing year we are getting closer and closer to that with big men in the NBA. The value difference between big men taken early vs later is getting smaller and smaller. With the game turning more and more perimeter oriented every year, we’re seeing less and less teams having teams built around players that don’t have skill sets based around perimeter play.


i remember when Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson and Ronnie Brown went top 5 in the 2005 NFL draft...lol that'll never happen today.


Haha yup. And I don’t think we’re that far away from saying something along the lines of, I remember when Ayton, Bagley, JJJ, Bamba, and WCJ all went in the top 7 in the 2018 draft.

And to be clear, I’m not saying all those guys are the same or they all suck. Just like that list of RBs aren’t all bad players. Ronnie Brown was a pro bowler. Benson rushed for 1k yards 3x, Cadillac was ROY.

It’s just that RBs don’t have that draft value anymore. And to stick with the RB comparison. I’m not saying all early picks were bad players. If we look at the latest high draft pick RBs, they’re actually legit good players

2016 draft
Zeke was the 4th pick
Just happened that Derrick Henry was taken in the 2nd round

2017 draft
Fournette 4th pick
CMC 8th pick
But you also got
Cook 2nd round
Mixon 2nd round
Kamara 3rd round

2018 draft
Barkley 2nd pick
But
Chubb 2nd round

And we’ve gotten no RBs taken top 20 since. Again to be clear to everyone, this isn’t me saying players like Ayton aren’t good players. I’m strictly talking draft value. Is getting Ayton with a top 5 pick (don’t even have to use the #1 pick) better value than Robert Williams at 27th?

And yes I know you can do this with every position with the draft. It just becomes the percentages on how often it happens for a non perimeter oriented big compared to any other position.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#19 » by Catchall » Wed Nov 2, 2022 3:55 am

There's value in having a defensive anchor, someone who can shut down the paint and grab double-digit rebounds every night. However, that player really needs to be somewhat switchable defensively in today's game, and he needs to be at least a decent ball mover if he's not a floor-spacing shooter.
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Re: Big Man Prospects in Today's Game 

Post#20 » by Duke4life831 » Wed Nov 2, 2022 4:15 pm

Catchall wrote:There's value in having a defensive anchor, someone who can shut down the paint and grab double-digit rebounds every night. However, that player really needs to be somewhat switchable defensively in today's game, and he needs to be at least a decent ball mover if he's not a floor-spacing shooter.

Agreed 100% and you can find that in most drafts late in the 1st to early 2nd.

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