RealGM

I thought it might be fun, and misguided, to estimate what I think the Jazz assets might go for at the deadline.

This is pretty hard as we got a ton more for Gobert than I would have thought, but a lot less for Bogey than I would have expected. So, I clearly don't have my finger on the pulse of every players value. But, I'm going to give it a shot anyway.


Tier #0 - Not getting moved
------------------------------------
Lauri - I don't think the Jazz would move him for anything reasonable. Plus Realgm has his value a lot lower than I do. So, best to just avoid him.

Kessler - I would be shocked if we move Kessler. These two are the only players that I think are relatively safe. Plus I'm insanely high on them, and would just make myself look bad if I tried to peg their values.

Agbaji - Looking good recently. Doubt the Jazz let him walk at this point.

Tier #1 - You want him you're gonna pay.
--------------------------
Colin Sexton - Not the leader Conley is. Not the scorer Clarkson is either. But, Sexton has a top level NBA skill, his first step is elite. He plays hard on defense. He often changes the tempo of the game when he comes in, giving the Jazz a nice boost off the bench. He's locked into what I think is going to look like a bargain contract when the new CBA deal comes in. And he's young. The young bull. Where Conley and Clarkson are hired guns for a team looking to contend today, Sexton can be a guy who is part of your future. As such I believe that the Jazz will try to hang onto him for their future. I would be surprised if they let him for for a single first. Probably will ask for 2. Probably will want them unprotected. Probably won't trade him, so it's a moot point. He could be had, but you really gotta want him.

Tier #2 - Not tier #1 guys, but do indeed move the needle.
----------------------------------
Jordan Clarkson - This guy is amazing. A walking bucket. And his passing and defense have been much better by my eye this year. He can come in and be your 2nd scorer. He can come in and be instant offense off the bench. He can even create for others. Any team looking to win now with any hole at the 1 or 2 should be interested. Very interested. I would be looking for a good 1st for him. Something around the 9-20 area projected. Does that mean it can be protected top 8? Yeah, probably. But, it needs to convey as a first at some point.

Mike Conley - Much less dynamic than Clarkson, but still is a terrific floor leader. He sees the floor very well, spaces the floor, and hardly ever makes a mistake. Just steady PG play for any contending team that needs an emergency replacement PG or decides they really just need a steady hand at PG. At this point in his career I'm confident he could be happy coming off the bench for a contending team. He is old and his contract is large and not expiring, so I think his value takes a hit. Unlike a lot on here, I still have him with positive value, there just aren't a lot of players out there you can get with his ability to run a team. I would say a late first to early 2nd would be his value. something in the 25-40 range projected. Could it be a highly protected first that converts to 2 seconds? Probably.

Kelly Olynyk - You need a center that can pass? Shoot? Create for others? Drive, it looks ugly, but the results are good. Then Kelly is your man. IF you need a rim protector, umm. Then he's not your man. Luckily if you already have a rim protector then he is very able to play alongside that guy giving you a ton of offense. This makes Kelly a tricky fit for some teams. For others he is a match made in heaven. Ainge seems to like him, but he also seems to love draft picks. I would guess one late first would get Kelly off the Jazz. Maybe in the 20-30 range projected.

Jared Vanderbuilt - Super intriguing player. Young. Cheap. Great motor. Great offensive rebounder. Very good passer. Showing range out to the corner 3 this year. On the downside he is 6-8, 218lbs. He is undersized for PF and currently not a good enough shooter to be a SF. So, a tweener. But, you can see him improving year to year. If he puts it all together he's going to be very very good. As he is, he is a great utility player that can go a lot of things. I think demand for him will be very high, largely because he makes so little money. This makes it easy for almost any team to make a run at him unlike some of the other Jazz offerings. I think a mid-first is the going rate. Something around teh 12-25 range projected.


Tier #3 - Bargain basement
---------------------------
Malik Beasley - 3pt specialist. Doesn't do enough of anything else to project as a starter to me. But, 3pt shooting is a pretty coveted ability. Expiring contract makes him appealing to a team looking to win now, but preserve cap next season. Probably worth multiple 2nd rounders.

THT - Another guy that could be good if he figures things out. But to my eye he is a bit of a triangle peg in a world full of round holes. But, if you need a slasher who can handle the ball a bit he's ok. Might be worth a late 2nd.

Alexander-Walker - Showing flashes this year. Last season I didn't think he looked like an NBA player. This season I think he does. A backup NBA player but every team needs backups. Expiring deal makes him interesting. A good 2nd maybe.

Anyone else just make an offer.

Fairly accurate I think. I'm a bit higher on Vanderbilt. Conley I think could be had cheaper if he asks the FO to go to a contender, I think we'd do him that favor.

I doubt we move THT at that price point due to seemingly pretty intentionally moving for him (vs the MIN/CLE guys that were needed to match salary).

Rudy Gay falls under 'anybody else' and could certainly be had for an expiring, but I think he might be able to help the right team in a limited role.

jazzfan1971 wrote:I thought it might be fun, and misguided, to estimate what I think the Jazz assets might go for at the deadline.

This is pretty hard as we got a ton more for Gobert than I would have thought, but a lot less for Bogey than I would have expected. So, I clearly don't have my finger on the pulse of every players value. But, I'm going to give it a shot anyway.


Tier #0 - Not getting moved
------------------------------------
Lauri - I don't think the Jazz would move him for anything reasonable. Plus Realgm has his value a lot lower than I do. So, best to just avoid him.

Kessler - I would be shocked if we move Kessler. These two are the only players that I think are relatively safe. Plus I'm insanely high on them, and would just make myself look bad if I tried to peg their values.

Agbaji - Looking good recently. Doubt the Jazz let him walk at this point.

Tier #1 - You want him you're gonna pay.
--------------------------
Colin Sexton - Not the leader Conley is. Not the scorer Clarkson is either. But, Sexton has a top level NBA skill, his first step is elite. He plays hard on defense. He often changes the tempo of the game when he comes in, giving the Jazz a nice boost off the bench. He's locked into what I think is going to look like a bargain contract when the new CBA deal comes in. And he's young. The young bull. Where Conley and Clarkson are hired guns for a team looking to contend today, Sexton can be a guy who is part of your future. As such I believe that the Jazz will try to hang onto him for their future. I would be surprised if they let him for for a single first. Probably will ask for 2. Probably will want them unprotected. Probably won't trade him, so it's a moot point. He could be had, but you really gotta want him.

Tier #2 - Not tier #1 guys, but do indeed move the needle.
----------------------------------
Jordan Clarkson - This guy is amazing. A walking bucket. And his passing and defense have been much better by my eye this year. He can come in and be your 2nd scorer. He can come in and be instant offense off the bench. He can even create for others. Any team looking to win now with any hole at the 1 or 2 should be interested. Very interested. I would be looking for a good 1st for him. Something around the 9-20 area projected. Does that mean it can be protected top 8? Yeah, probably. But, it needs to convey as a first at some point.

Mike Conley - Much less dynamic than Clarkson, but still is a terrific floor leader. He sees the floor very well, spaces the floor, and hardly ever makes a mistake. Just steady PG play for any contending team that needs an emergency replacement PG or decides they really just need a steady hand at PG. At this point in his career I'm confident he could be happy coming off the bench for a contending team. He is old and his contract is large and not expiring, so I think his value takes a hit. Unlike a lot on here, I still have him with positive value, there just aren't a lot of players out there you can get with his ability to run a team. I would say a late first to early 2nd would be his value. something in the 25-40 range projected. Could it be a highly protected first that converts to 2 seconds? Probably.

Kelly Olynyk - You need a center that can pass? Shoot? Create for others? Drive, it looks ugly, but the results are good. Then Kelly is your man. IF you need a rim protector, umm. Then he's not your man. Luckily if you already have a rim protector then he is very able to play alongside that guy giving you a ton of offense. This makes Kelly a tricky fit for some teams. For others he is a match made in heaven. Ainge seems to like him, but he also seems to love draft picks. I would guess one late first would get Kelly off the Jazz. Maybe in the 20-30 range projected.

Jared Vanderbuilt - Super intriguing player. Young. Cheap. Great motor. Great offensive rebounder. Very good passer. Showing range out to the corner 3 this year. On the downside he is 6-8, 218lbs. He is undersized for PF and currently not a good enough shooter to be a SF. So, a tweener. But, you can see him improving year to year. If he puts it all together he's going to be very very good. As he is, he is a great utility player that can go a lot of things. I think demand for him will be very high, largely because he makes so little money. This makes it easy for almost any team to make a run at him unlike some of the other Jazz offerings. I think a mid-first is the going rate. Something around teh 12-25 range projected.


Tier #3 - Bargain basement
---------------------------
Malik Beasley - 3pt specialist. Doesn't do enough of anything else to project as a starter to me. But, 3pt shooting is a pretty coveted ability. Expiring contract makes him appealing to a team looking to win now, but preserve cap next season. Probably worth multiple 2nd rounders.

THT - Another guy that could be good if he figures things out. But to my eye he is a bit of a triangle peg in a world full of round holes. But, if you need a slasher who can handle the ball a bit he's ok. Might be worth a late 2nd.

Alexander-Walker - Showing flashes this year. Last season I didn't think he looked like an NBA player. This season I think he does. A backup NBA player but every team needs backups. Expiring deal makes him interesting. A good 2nd maybe.

Anyone else just make an offer.

Tier0:
Lauri, Kessler

Arguable Tier 0:
Sexton, Agbaji

Tier1:
JC

Tier2:
JV, Beasley, Conley, OK

Tier3:
THT, Walker, Gay

Guys I would keep: Lauri, Kessler, Vanderbilt, Agbaji.

Everyone else can be had at Trader Danny's asking price and I like sunevision's tiers for the rest.

Asking for two unprotected FRPs for Collin Sexton seems absurd imo.

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:Asking for two unprotected FRPs for Collin Sexton seems absurd imo.

I would argue he doesn’t have positive value. Probably neutral.

jazzfan1971 wrote:

Spoiler:

I thought it might be fun, and misguided, to estimate what I think the Jazz assets might go for at the deadline.

This is pretty hard as we got a ton more for Gobert than I would have thought, but a lot less for Bogey than I would have expected. So, I clearly don't have my finger on the pulse of every players value. But, I'm going to give it a shot anyway.


Tier #0 - Not getting moved
------------------------------------
Lauri - I don't think the Jazz would move him for anything reasonable. Plus Realgm has his value a lot lower than I do. So, best to just avoid him.

Kessler - I would be shocked if we move Kessler. These two are the only players that I think are relatively safe. Plus I'm insanely high on them, and would just make myself look bad if I tried to peg their values.

Agbaji - Looking good recently. Doubt the Jazz let him walk at this point.

Tier #1 - You want him you're gonna pay.
--------------------------
Colin Sexton - Not the leader Conley is. Not the scorer Clarkson is either. But, Sexton has a top level NBA skill, his first step is elite. He plays hard on defense. He often changes the tempo of the game when he comes in, giving the Jazz a nice boost off the bench. He's locked into what I think is going to look like a bargain contract when the new CBA deal comes in. And he's young. The young bull. Where Conley and Clarkson are hired guns for a team looking to contend today, Sexton can be a guy who is part of your future. As such I believe that the Jazz will try to hang onto him for their future. I would be surprised if they let him for for a single first. Probably will ask for 2. Probably will want them unprotected. Probably won't trade him, so it's a moot point. He could be had, but you really gotta want him.

Tier #2 - Not tier #1 guys, but do indeed move the needle.
----------------------------------
Jordan Clarkson - This guy is amazing. A walking bucket. And his passing and defense have been much better by my eye this year. He can come in and be your 2nd scorer. He can come in and be instant offense off the bench. He can even create for others. Any team looking to win now with any hole at the 1 or 2 should be interested. Very interested. I would be looking for a good 1st for him. Something around the 9-20 area projected. Does that mean it can be protected top 8? Yeah, probably. But, it needs to convey as a first at some point.

Spoiler:

Mike Conley - Much less dynamic than Clarkson, but still is a terrific floor leader. He sees the floor very well, spaces the floor, and hardly ever makes a mistake. Just steady PG play for any contending team that needs an emergency replacement PG or decides they really just need a steady hand at PG. At this point in his career I'm confident he could be happy coming off the bench for a contending team. He is old and his contract is large and not expiring, so I think his value takes a hit. Unlike a lot on here, I still have him with positive value, there just aren't a lot of players out there you can get with his ability to run a team. I would say a late first to early 2nd would be his value. something in the 25-40 range projected. Could it be a highly protected first that converts to 2 seconds? Probably.

Kelly Olynyk - You need a center that can pass? Shoot? Create for others? Drive, it looks ugly, but the results are good. Then Kelly is your man. IF you need a rim protector, umm. Then he's not your man. Luckily if you already have a rim protector then he is very able to play alongside that guy giving you a ton of offense. This makes Kelly a tricky fit for some teams. For others he is a match made in heaven. Ainge seems to like him, but he also seems to love draft picks. I would guess one late first would get Kelly off the Jazz. Maybe in the 20-30 range projected.

Jared Vanderbuilt - Super intriguing player. Young. Cheap. Great motor. Great offensive rebounder. Very good passer. Showing range out to the corner 3 this year. On the downside he is 6-8, 218lbs. He is undersized for PF and currently not a good enough shooter to be a SF. So, a tweener. But, you can see him improving year to year. If he puts it all together he's going to be very very good. As he is, he is a great utility player that can go a lot of things. I think demand for him will be very high, largely because he makes so little money. This makes it easy for almost any team to make a run at him unlike some of the other Jazz offerings. I think a mid-first is the going rate. Something around teh 12-25 range projected.


Tier #3 - Bargain basement
---------------------------
Malik Beasley - 3pt specialist. Doesn't do enough of anything else to project as a starter to me. But, 3pt shooting is a pretty coveted ability. Expiring contract makes him appealing to a team looking to win now, but preserve cap next season. Probably worth multiple 2nd rounders.

THT - Another guy that could be good if he figures things out. But to my eye he is a bit of a triangle peg in a world full of round holes. But, if you need a slasher who can handle the ball a bit he's ok. Might be worth a late 2nd.

Alexander-Walker - Showing flashes this year. Last season I didn't think he looked like an NBA player. This season I think he does. A backup NBA player but every team needs backups. Expiring deal makes him interesting. A good 2nd maybe.

Anyone else just make an offer.

Jordan Clarkson - This guy is amazing. A walking bucket. And his passing and defense have been much better by my eye this year. He can come in and be your 2nd scorer. He can come in and be instant offense off the bench. He can even create for others. Any team looking to win now with any hole at the 1 or 2 should be interested. Very interested. I would be looking for a good 1st for him. Something around the 9-20 area projected. Does that mean it can be protected top 8? Yeah, probably. But, it needs to convey as a first at some point.

Tankathon

9. Portland - They have Simons, Lillard and Sharpe. I don't have them in the market for another Guard
...Chicago - They already have LaVine and DDR who need the ball. Maybe they need to draft a PG if the outlook for Ball isn't
good.
11. OKC - I don't think that they have another First Round pick in the 2023 Draft, so I have it as
doubtful that they will trade it away for a potential Clarkson rental.
12. Indiana - They have quite a few Guards and their needs appear to be more for a PF or SF type. If it looks like
Turner is leaving, then they might want to use this pick for a Center.
13. Since CP3 is aging, I have them in long term need of a PG rather than a 6th Man.
14. Utah - N/A

15. Clippers - Stepien Rule
....Golden State - They have Poole and are in the market for a Full Size Wing or maybe a Big. Also Stepien Rule
....Minnesota --> Utah
18. Atlanta - No idea
19. Knicks - If they want to move up in the draft, then it is easier if they have (2) First Round picks.
....Miami - No idea
....Dallas --> Knicks - If they want to move up in the draft, then it is easier if they have (2) First Round picks.


I have

Clarkson for Lottery Pick + expiring

as very doubtful. Bringing back any First Round pick might be doubtful since there probably aren't many likely destinations for him in the #20 - #30 range.

Yeah, I think only JV and Beasley will be traded at that price point.

But I sort of feel if Ainge had plans of trading anyone in the rotation, he would’ve/should’ve already.

Did Utah/Utah fans regret not trading Jefferson and Millsap, and Hayward? Would those assets have helped build a better lineup around Rudy? Spida? Not including the better draft pick that would’ve came with not losing? If so, then the asking prices here should be lowered a bit.

If Utah liked barely making/missing playoffs and competing every night? Then Utah should keep these prices.

I know the answer is yes to both sets of questions, but it can’t be.

I don’t value Clarkson or Sexton nearly as highly.

Sexton is s slight negative, Clarkson is neutral to slight positive but I wouldn’t want either on my team.

As a fan, I love Jarred Vanderbilt. As a GM, I think he is just too limited to command much trade value.

As Jazzfan points out, he’s a tweener. He gets his rebounds from hustle and reckless disregard for his skinny body. His lack of weight makes guarding even some regular-sized PF’s problematic, but again, hustle gets him in the ballgame. It’s nice to see him trying to make open three’s in the corner, but at one 3PA per game, that isn’t a threat. He may always be forced to play in the dunker spot, but even there he has pretty bad hands.

I’m not saying I wouldn’t love him back in MIN. His biggest draw to me is that his enthusiasm gets the more talented players to work harder and play with more energy. But I don’t see a role for him for most teams beyond “rotation forward,” and he forces coaches to eliminate several offensive sets because they need to hide him. I love to see him play, but I don’t think he’d bring back a mid-1st, and the Jazz should hold onto him to set an example for their other players.

OP too high on Sexton and a bit too high on Clarkson, otherwise seems good.

I have THT, NAW, Gay as negative. Every team has mediocre players of this type. Just because they do something useful for your team doesn't mean they have value. Let me go back to Dwight Powell and Reggie Bullock Jr. This board universally pegs them both as negative value but they play better than any of those Jazz players. You can be negative trade value and not useless.

If Sexton was worth 2 unprotected 1sts he wouldn't have been still sitting around that deep into free agency to be S&T'd to Utah. He would have had much bigger offers in free agency. He didn't. He's not worth anything close to this.

Clarkson is not worth a pick gtd to be 9-20. I like him more than just about any non-Jazz fans on the board and I think if you got a top 20 protected 1st for him, that's a good offer.

Olynyk will not return a 1st.


Rest seem okayish. I'll let Jazz fans say who should and should not be on the table to begin with.

The hill i die on, There are so many tier 2 guys in the league in the lg that they worth less than you think. We see good role players get traded for less than their on court impact because of this.

If jazz don’t want to sell somebody else will sell similar guy at same price.

If both jazz and other teams have the same price. One team will undercut the other team.

kobe_vs_jordan wrote:The hill i die on, There are so many tier 2 guys in the league in the lg that they worth less than you think. We see good role players get traded for less than their on court impact because of this.

If jazz don’t want to sell somebody else will sell similar guy at same price.

If both jazz and other teams have the same price. One team will undercut the other team.

I agree, and to add to this, teams can acquire tier 2 guys in free agency, and not give up any trade assets.

Pretty amazing to see the gap between 2 unprotected picks and negative value for a guy like Sexton within just a few posts.

Good analysis.

I will add they seem very high on Agbaji, who can be a valuable roleplayer for many years in this league, but do believe Ainge would include him in a deal if they are getting a star or a youngish proven starter in return. He will be under team control for years on his rookie deal.

For those who have commented on Sexton he is not the same guy that played in Cleveland. He is dishing/driving, moving the ball, and also learning to change speeds instead of going full Bull on every drive to the basket. His shooting %'s have gone up this season (.50/.40/.82) and they were already high in Cleveland. He's doing it on lower usage. From Ainge's comments it sounds like they really like him, and have spent many development hours on him (and Agbaji/Kessler). David Fizdale and Mike Conley have been working extensively with Sexton. At the very minimum he will be a high level 6th man for a long time in this league. He's in the same bucket as Agbaji where they would reluctantly move him for a star/youngish starter at a position of need. He's also paid as a 6th man on his new contract. His value will only go up playing in Will Hardy's system.

I think Beasley might have more value than Tier 3. The guy is a volume 3 pt shooter. His %'s would be higher but he is taking some high volume difficult 3's. I think just about every team in the league can use a volume 3 pt shooter who makes them at a high clip.

HartfordWhalers wrote:Pretty amazing to see the gap between 2 unprotected picks and negative value for a guy like Sexton within just a few posts.

continuity of several Sexton trades proposals last season and after a sign & trade with a lot of other assets involved, it didn't help to have a better idea of his value around the league (certainly not negative value for the Jazz though)

I think my point with Sexton was that it would take a lot for the Jazz to part with him. I think you'd need to overpay to get him. So, yes, I put his value extra high, that was intentional.

My own tiers.

Tier 0 (would require a huge overpay)
Lauri
Kessler

Tier 1 (would require enough I think most would see it as an overpay)
Ochai
Sexton (yeah, I kinda agree, two mystery 1sts or a confirmed good 1st)
Vanderbilt (same as above)

Tier 2 (later 1st, multiple 2nds or mediocre prospects should get it done)
Clarkson
Beasley
Olynyk

Tier 2.5 (Tier 2 if he wants to stay, tier 3 if he wants to go)
Conley

Tier 3 (anything of positive value)
THT

Tier 4 (free to a good home)
Everyone else

Lauri and Kessler are probably the only two players on the Jazz roster with substantial value. Obviously, the expectations for Agbaji are high, but I don't think you're returning more than what the Cavaliers invested in him.

Nobody is going to pay for Sexton. He's in the midst of a down year, and he's due $54.5M which is reasonable for what he's producing. There's just not the upside to justify sending unprotected picks, unless you're talking about teams that are locks to make the playoff. If he were playing better, maybe you could make that argument but his role looks more like an elite 6th man than a high impact starter.

Jordan Clarkson is that, but with less upside. If you get an expiring contract and a FRP out of him, you run with that. Because there's no real upside, and the precedent for high-end 6th man trades is late FRP/early SRP. Not any FRPs with real upside.

Mike Conley is cooked. Getting off his contract is value in itself.