What does PWill's 2023-24 season need to look like in order for you to be comfortable extending him?

[GoBlue72391]

We're almost at the conclusion of PWill's 3rd season, and while he's shown occasional flashes of upside, he's pretty consistently been a timid 5th-option starter with solid defense and good 3-point shooting on low volume. He has consistently been a 12-13 PPG and 5-6 RPG Per 36 guy every season so far.

I think it's fair to say he hasn't really shown a ton of improvement from the time he was drafted, nor has he added any new wrinkles to his game between seasons. The qualifier here is that he missed a significant chunk of his second season and was robbed of summer league and a true training camp during his rookie year due to COVID. I would say his defense this season has finally caught up to his defensive reputation, which was undeserved his first two years IMO. He's not a lockdown guy or even our best defender, but he is a legitimately above-average defender now.

Pros:
- Solid defender, especially as a team/help defender
- Good catch-and-shoot 3 ball
- Nice pull-up middy
- Somewhere from average to well above average athleticism depending on who you ask
- Strong for his role/position
- Ideal frame/length for a modern PF
- Profiles as having a 3&D floor, which is a relatively high floor
- Seems to be a good, team-first guy

Cons:
- Notable mentality concerns (timidness, hesitance, no killer instinct, etc.)
- Recognition/basketball instincts seem to be lacking
- Generally low motor
- Seems to have a role player's mindset and doesn't seem like he wants to be great
- Below-average lateral quickness
- Hasn't flashed much shot creation ability outside of a pull-up mid/one-hand push shot off of a pump fake
- Extremely small sample size of post-ups that leads one to assume it's not really a part of his game
- Average at best finisher
- No notable ballhandling or playmaking ability
- Shot mechanics are on the slower side and could limit his ability to increase his 3-point volume

Next year will be the final season of PWill's rookie contract before we have to make a choice of extending him, letting him walk, or trading him. I don't know what PWill's value looks like on the open market, but I do think he'll earn more than what he otherwise would due to his combination of youth+perceived potential+and draft pedigree, so that means keeping him will likely result in an overpay with the hope that he'll eventually take a big leap and earn that contract.

[sco]

There's little we can add to the roster next season, so he should continue to get decent minutes to show something and develop more.

I'm fine trading him for a clear upgrade should one become available, but on the flipside, keeping and hoping he improves isn't crazy. I'd be interested to see if he ups his offense if we can rid ourselves of Vuc.

The OP lacks the price to give context to the options, all of which are hard to judge without context.

Would I extend him under any circumstances for $5M/year? Sure. Would I feel the same at $15M/year? No.

[GoBlue72391]

There's little we can add to the roster next season, so he should continue to get decent minutes to show something and develop more.

I'm fine trading him for a clear upgrade should one become available, but on the flipside, keeping and hoping he improves isn't crazy. I'd be interested to see if he ups his offense if we can rid ourselves of Vuc.

The OP lacks the price to give context to the options, all of which are hard to judge without context.

Would I extend him under any circumstances for $5M/year? Sure. Would I feel the same at $15M/year? No.

I didn't want to put price tags out there because I have no idea what he'll command, I'd just be guessing, but I'm operating under the assumption that he'll be at least slightly overpaid due to his youth+perceived potential+and draft pedigree.

[_txchilibowl_]

I'd extend him and cross my fingers. At worst he becomes salary filler in a reset type of trade.

[kodo]

Cons:
- last on the team in +/-. With the recent surge most of the team is positive. Only Vucevic, Marko, Terry, Ayo and Patrick are still negative and Patrick is the worst.

- last of the actual rotation players on defensive rating (Terry Taylor & Marko are worse). 113.8 def rating, which is worse than Vucevic 112.4.

While by the eye test he may seem fine, the math says we're not winning when he gets on the court. And he's been in both starter & bench situations, in a lot of different lineups. He may be a fine player but he's not meshing w/ the team as constructed.

[coldfish]

It really comes down to price. I'm sure everyone is more comfortable with 3/$27m than 4/$120.

[GusFring]

His advanced stats show he's pretty much killing the team, have to start wondering about our developmental staff at this point.

[MikeDC]

id modify to say:
Pros:
- Solid defender, especially as a team/help defender
- Good catch-and-shoot 3 ball
- Nice pull-up middy
- Somewhere from average to well above average athleticism depending on who you ask
- Strong for his role/position Not notably stronger than most PFs.
- Ideal frame/length for a modern PF. This would be true foe SF but definitely not for PF.
- Profiles as having a 3&D floor, which is a relatively high floor
- Seems to be a good, team-first guy

Cons:
- Notable mentality concerns (timidness, hesitance, no killer instinct, etc.)
- Recognition/basketball instincts seem to be lacking
- Generally low motor
- Seems to have a role player's mindset and doesn't seem like he wants to be great
- Below-average lateral quickness
- Hasn't flashed much shot creation ability outside of a pull-up mid/one-hand push shot off of a pump fake
- Extremely small sample size of post-ups that leads one to assume it's not really a part of his game
- Average at best finisher
- No notable ballhandling or playmaking ability
- Shot mechanics are on the slower side and could limit his ability to increase his 3-point volume
- undersized by about 20lbs and below average wingspan by several inches for PF.
- **** rebounder.

Next year will be the final season of PWill's rookie contract before we have to make a choice of extending him, letting him walk, or trading him. I don't know what PWill's value looks like on the open market, but I do think he'll earn more than what he otherwise would due to his combination of youth+perceived potential+and draft pedigree, so that means keeping him will likely result in an overpay with the hope that he'll eventually take a big leap and earn that contract.

Its hard to say. His defense and shooting potential make him a really easy fit. I dont mind paying him like a low end starter ($15-$20m) but id probably walk away mub higher than that. And it has to be in the context of making sense for the roster. In the longer run, id feel a lot better about him as DeMar’s eventual replacement than as our long term PF solution.

Thats where i really disagree. Hes kind of a tweener, but as a 4, hes giving up both size and athleticism to the high end guys. My thought is a successful team needs to have guys who are at least aberage but better big for their position who can defend. That means Pat has to eventually be the 3 and we need a bigger, better 4.

[Brothaman33]

I've been done with Pat for a while now...

10 points and 4 rebounds...for 3 straight years.

He does not and never will have the mindset to be a great player. He is an athletic body who tries hard sometimes.

I would trade him.

[leo921]

Williams has 3 seasons under his belt but the reality is more like 2 seasons with his injury last year and a lost training camp due to COVID. You can see the flashes becoming a little more consistent and at times finding his way. Williams would have developed faster with the Hornets or Pistons, teams that would give him minutes, play thru mistakes, and force him to succeed or fail every game.

I think he could be a cross between Wiggins/Kawhi, it took those guys a minute before they really exploded and became there final versions. I would try to sign him now before he breaks out and get the best long term deal I can get. Guys 6'8 that can play 3 and D will always have value, in fact guys that are 6'8 and up that play 3-4 are the most valuable. I would try to lock him up on something like 4/60m, even if he stays the same contract can be traded if he breaks out like I think then he would be on a super value contract.

[That_Casual]

What’s his trade value?

[DuckIII]

He’s an enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in a vest.

I’ll let you know by next season’s trade deadline. A lot of my opinion of Pat depends on the circumstances.

[dougthonus]

It really comes down to price. I'm sure everyone is more comfortable with 3/$27m than 4/$120.

Yeah, its price vs output.

I mean you'd extend Coby and Ayo now under some circumstances and not under others. Pat looks likely to be in that boat.

To put it bluntly:
For sure extend: Means you'd pay them the max. Any other amount means you can be outbid and the answer is "it depends"
For sure let go: Means you won't even pay them the min. Otherwise, if he's available for the min you'd still take him.

Whatever Pat does next year, his price will be reflective in that output. Obviously unless he tears both ACLs and an achilles you'd give him the min, and it's hard to envision based on where he is today that he's going to be worth a max.

Thus, anything outside of insane improvement means the answer to his question is "it depends on the cost".

Of course you said that in a lot fewer words.

[League Circles]

I mean, if I don't trade him befor then, and don't need to release him to sign someone better, he's definitely already good enough for me to be willing to offer him a 4 year deal. The price range is still wildly up in the air. Could range anywhere from less than 10 million a year to over 20 or even 25.

[League Circles]

All he is right now is a good medium volume 3 pt shooter and a pretty good defender. He has the potential to be a lot more. Who knows if he'll ever become something more.

What I'd do with him is more dependent on how we do next year, what our alternatives are, etc, than how he plays. It'll be absurd if we lose him for nothing though. I'd shop the hell out of a package of him, Caruso and Terry though. That's basically all we can do this summer to add to the big 2.5.

[GoBlue72391]

He’s an enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in a vest.

I’ll let you know by next season’s trade deadline. A lot of my opinion of Pat depends on the circumstances.

+1 for the reference

[DuckIII]

He’s an enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in a vest.

I’ll let you know by next season’s trade deadline. A lot of my opinion of Pat depends on the circumstances.

+1 for the reference

+1 for recognizing it.

“What do you feel? What’s inside you right now?”

“Guts. And black stuff. And about 50 slim jims.”

[vxmike]

He’s shown zero motor on this team. Awful rebounder and generally timid play. Is he a guy who just played ball because he had the body for it?

Time to move on. If there is a motor deep somewhere in Pat he’ll be another guy who improves once he’s off the worst player development team in the league.

[pipfan]

I try to extend him cheaply this summer, and don't wait. I still believe in him (this is assuming he's a good kid, like reports say). I think we could get him to extend now, and pray he blossoms and becomes a cheap deal. I KNOW the downside, but we need to get lucky somehow.

[ChiTownHero1992]

He needs to become something more, you can find 10ppg and 4rpg guys all over the NBA for WAY cheaper. So he needs to make the leap to a 13+ ppg scorer with closer to 8-9 rebounds and consistent shooting/defense to rely on, without that he is the same as any other bench role player in the league and not worth extending for massive money