Post-Mortem: 2022-23 Miami Heat

[ElectricMayhem]

Did the Heat not know they could just tank out of the play-in game like the Mavericks?

Here is the data from previous years' Post-Mortems:
2020-21:

Spoiler:

Post-Mortem Results I: GM Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results II: Coaching Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results III: Performance Compared to Expectations
Post-Mortem Results IV: Rising/Treadmill/Waning

2021-22:
2021-22 Post Mortem Final Summary

Team Name: Miami Heat
Record at Time of Death: 44-38 (.537) (Finals)
Head of Front Office: Andy Elisburg (2013)
Coach: Erik Spoelstra (2008)

Offensive Rating: 25th
Defensive Rating: 9th
Rebound %: 18th
Turnover %: 13th

Front Office: Change or keep?
Coach: Change or keep?
Relative to expectations, how did they fare this year?
Rising, falling, or treadmill?
If you were in charge, what would you do this offseason?

Notes:
Players under contract next year:
Jimmy Butler ($45m)
Bam Adebayo ($33m)
Kyle Lowry ($30m)
Tyler Herro ($27m)
Duncan Robinson ($18m)
Caleb Martin ($7m)
Nikola Jovic ($2m)
Haywood Highsmith ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)

Team Options:

Player Options:
Victor Oladipo ($9m)

Free Agents:
Kevin Love
Max Strus
Gabe Vincent
Cody Zeller
Omar Yurtseven
Jamal Cain
Orlando Robinson

Retiring:
Udonis Haslem

Dead Money:

Previous Post-Mortems:
30. Houston Rockets
29. San Antonio Spurs
28. Detroit Pistons
27. Charlotte Hornets
26. Portland Trail Blazers
25. Indiana Pacers
24. Washington Wizards
23. Orlando Magic
22. Utah Jazz
21. Dallas Mavericks
20. Toronto Raptors
19. New Orleans Pelicans
18. Chicago Bulls
17. Oklahoma City Thunder
16. Brooklyn Nets
15. Minnesota Timberwolves
14. Los Angeles Clippers
13. Cleveland Cavaliers
12. Milwaukee Bucks
11. Atlanta Hawks
10. Memphis Grizzlies
9. Sacramento Kings
8. Phoenix Suns
7. New York Knicks
6. Golden State Warriors
5. Philadelphia 76ers
4. Los Angeles Lakers
3. Boston Celtics
2. Miami Heat

[jkvonny]

Tuff tuff gritty team. They made the Nuggets work!
Reminds me of the 2001 Sixers team against the Lakers. NBA Finals. Shorthanded but tuff.

[Chuck Everett]

Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson a combined 48 million dollars. Eww. if they could just consolidate that money into one better player, they need to try to do so. I'd even trade for Porzingis (and throw in some picks) if Washington is doing a tear down.

[ElectricMayhem]

The Heat have a front office that can find the gems nobody else finds. They have the best coach in the game. And they have the grittiest star in the game. That's not enough, though. Getting this far with a handful of undrafted players says both that this team brilliantly used what they had and that there was opportunity to be a better team than they are. Guys like Strus and Vincent did great. Just like guys like Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder, Tyler Johnson, Hassan Whiteside, and Mario Chalmers provided more than could've or should've been expected of them. Getting this far is a testament to everything they do right. Not getting over the hump is a testament to needing the talent of people who were good enough to be drafted too.

Regardless, it was a fun journey and I thoroughly enjoyed Miami being the wrecking ball of the Eastern Conference Playoffs this year.

[durden_tyler]

Get a star alongside Bam and Butler and they'll contend again for the playoffs. (From there we really can't say how deep again, like this year )

[brutalitops]

Try to get Strus to a good team contract. Then unless Lillard becomes available, try to sign another true PF/C because they looked a little small in certain match ups. I think where the roster is you try to flip Herro or Lowry someone else for someone who can get buckets and not hurt you defensively.

[brutalitops]

Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson a combined 48 million dollars. Eww. if they could just consolidate that money into one better player, they need to try to do so. I'd even trade for Porzingis (and throw in some picks) if Washington is doing a tear down.

If they could get Kuzma and another piece for Lowry's contract and maybe bring in another guy who might take some unders it could give it another 1/2 years while Butler is able to play like that

[_GH0ST_]

The championship is winnable, but there is no other example of what the Miami Heat have accomplished this season. It was incredible to make it to The Finals from Play Inn and to eliminate 2 giant teams on the way. Most Heat fans, myself included, wanted to be eliminated from the Bulls and picked from the lottary, but look how far we've come. Thank you Heat. Glad i'm a fan of Heat.

[SA37]

Miami is going to have to find a way to better optimize the ~$75M being paid to Robinson, Herro, and Lowry, and Miami has future cap consideration to think of.

I could see Miami looking into the availability of Siakam, Anunoby, and/or FVV. I'm not anywhere near as high on OG Anunoby as a lot of people seem to be on these boards, but he is someone Miami could potentially target. That said, the asking price and potential bidding war likely keeps Miami away.

I also think Miami will look into the availability of both Bogdanovic guys and John Collins. Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward, and Kelly Oubre are guys Miami has shown interest in in the past.

[CodeBreaker]

We need a third legit star alongisde Jimmy and Bam. We ain't going anywhere deeper in the playoffs with Tyler Herro.

[Drakeem]

They need another scorer. Whether it's Beal, Lillard, or even Siakam, you can only squeeze so much out of this team. Butler isn't enough of an offensive force to carry the load on his back for 4 series. Bam is alright offensively but it looks like he'll never develop into a legit 1a/1b threat with Butler in that sense.

If they manage to score another star, they'll be scary.

[timO]

They need to trade lowry and herro, and Robinson.

Take a star with bad Max contract like lillard or beal.

[p0peye]

Put KD in this team and behold.

[Ferulci]

Awesome, awesome, awesome run by the Heat. Respect to all the organization, from the GM to the coach and of course the players.
If I were them, i would try to acquire another top 25 players, even if it means "overpaying" like Lillard (best case), Beal or Siakam.

[hugepatsfan]

Great run by them. They're very likable and have strong resumes at a lot of spots, so it's tough to really harp on any of their key pieces and it shield them a bit.

Jimmy has played 64 playoff games with MIA. He's shot 40% or less in 20 of them. That's not good enough. Because he's so likable and MIA is always the underdog he avoids the game-to-game criticism that other stars of his caliber face, but his actual playoff resume is one that would be drawing a lot of criticism and questioning of he's good enough to be a best player on a title team. He just gets the benefit of only being talked about to praise his highest moments. They need to not only get another star on that team, but it probably needs to be someone who can put Jimmy in a #2 scoring slot because he isn't good enough game-to-game as a top scorer IMO. Think someone like Dame.

Pat Riley is a basketball god of course, but we can't keep calling MIA less talented than other contenders and say he's doing a good job. He needs to live up to his billing and find something to add to this roster. They need more skill not just at the top but throughout. His championship teams in MIA were led by Lebron and Wade in their primes and Shaq one year removed from a 2nd place MVP finish. He doesn't have that firepower at the top of the roster, so he's gotta be willing to prioritize some offensive skill throughout the rest of the rotation to help compensate. A couple of stars and then a bunch of grinders isn't going to work if the stars are Jimmy and Bam.

Their biggest problem is that Riley has wasted a lot of the cap sheet on Lowery/Robinson and spent a lot of draft picks. Going to be somewhat tough for them to really put together an offer for a star. They probably need another year or two for more of their picks to become tradable so they can make a future pick based offer. They have to hope that Jimmy's window doesn't pass them by in the short term.

A distressed asset like Brad Beal seems like a great, great choice for them. Someone they can maybe get at their price point to make sure they have for the Jimmy window. It might not be enough though, because even though they're on the doorstep this next step is by far the toughest. Someone like Dame is probably what they need, but feels like they'd be outbid for him.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

They need to trade lowry and herro, and Robinson.

Take a star with bad Max contract like lillard or beal.

2 of them + picks + swaps for Lillard?

lol thats a terrible deal for Portland but great deal for Miami.

[Godymas]

nice run for a team with an imperfect roster

Jimmy is great, this eras Reggie Miller, very memorable playoff performer, dog, scrappy, etc. Not in terms of aesthetic game and playstyle.

Kyle Lowry kind of redeemed himself with the playoffs and then unredeemed himself. He's still good, but it feels like his ring kind of overinflated his own self worth for a bit there.

Spo proving that he is the best coach in the league still.

Heat need a true first option on offense. If Jimmy Butler is the second option of offense and the second best defender on this team then this team is championship bound.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

They need to trade lowry and herro, and Robinson.

Take a star with bad Max contract like lillard or beal.

terrible deals for the team trading Lillard or Beal though. low draft picks + swaps for the next 8 years? doubt Miami forgoes their future like that either.

[Teen Girl Squad]

They need to trade lowry and herro, and Robinson.

Take a star with bad Max contract like lillard or beal.

terrible deals for the team trading Lillard or Beal though. low draft picks + swaps for the next 8 years? doubt Miami forgoes their future like that either.

Also breaks up their greatest strengths in team defense, unless the finally decide defense is worth it. Miami's done a great job of turning players who would typically be - defensive starters and turning them into at least neutral matchups. I'd agree with the idea of testing the markets for one of Toronto's guys, who may not have the same offensive upside, but have proven themselves in the playoffs/in team defense.

[Johnny Tomala]

Keep, keep, better, treadmill.