Carmelo as a scorer

[durantbird]

He has pretty decent numbers on the efficiency column for a volume scorer. Who does he compare do offensively all time?

[Colbinii]

Alex English

[ty 4191]

He has pretty decent numbers on the efficiency column for a volume scorer. Who does he compare do offensively all time?

*Does* he have good efficiency numbers for a high volume scorer, though?

League/Era Adjusted Efficiency Metrics (100 is league average):

Carmelo:
FG+: 98
eFG%+: 97
TS%+: 100
Career TS Added: +72.1

Contrast that with some others in his (general) vicinity in career points:

Durant:
FG+: 109
eFG%+: 108
TS%+: 113
Career TS Added: +3178

Dr. J:
FG+: 106
eFG%: 106
TS%+: 106
Career TS Added: +1670

Oscar Robertson:
FG+: 111
TS%+: 115
TS Added: +3518

Dominique Wilkins:
FG%+: 97
eFG%: 97
TS+: 100
TS Added: -32.4

Paul Pierce:
FG%+: 99
eFG%+: 103
TS%+: 107
TS Added: +1771

Dirk Nowitzki:
FG%+: 104
eFG%+: 104
TS%+: 108
TS Added: +2350

Kobe Bryant:
FG%+: 99
eFG%+: 99
TS%+: 104
TS Added: +1122

John Havlicek:
FG%+: 98
TS%+: 99
TS Added: -341

Dan Issel:
FG%+: 105
eFG%+: 105
TS%+: 107
TS Added: +1737

Rick Barry:
FG%+: 100
eFG%+: 100
TS%+: 104
TS Added: +883

James Harden:
FG%+: 97
eFG%+: 103
TS%+: 111
TS Added: +2419

Russell Westbrook:
FG%+: 96
eFG%+: 92
TS%+: 96
TS Added: -1141

Kevin Garnett:
FG%+: 110
eFG%: 103
TS%+: 103
TS Added: +821

George Gervin:
FG%+: 105
eFG%+: 105
TS%+: 107
TS Added: +1687

Reggie Miller:
FG%+: 102
eFG%: 112
TS%+: 116
TS Added: +3449

What are your thoughts and input on all this?

TS Added, career, is really the gold standard. Volume plus efficiency, indexed to league averages, and, you can have negative values per season even if you’re scoring a ton, but on really poor efficiency.

Kobe and Carmelo come to mind.

Among players if the last 40 years, Westbrook is absolutely the worst shooter.

[ty 4191]

Alex English

Alex English:
FG%+: 105
eFG%: 104
TS%+: 103
TS Added: +632

Carmelo:
FG+: 98
eFG%+: 97
TS%+: 100
Career TS Added: +72.1

(He does look like a very comp for Melo, but, I think he was probably a better scorer and more efficient one, at that…)

[Primedeion]

He has pretty decent numbers on the efficiency column for a volume scorer. Who does he compare do offensively all time?

*Does* he have good efficiency numbers for a high volume scorer, though?

League/Era Adjusted Efficiency Metrics (100 is league average):

Carmelo:
FG+: 98
eFG%+: 97
TS%+: 100
Career TS Added: +72.1

Contrast that with some others in his (general) vicinity in career points:

Durant:
FG+: 109
eFG%+: 108
TS%+: 113
Career TS Added: +3178

Dr. J:
FG+: 106
eFG%: 106
TS%+: 106
Career TS Added: +1670

Oscar Robertson:
FG+: 111
TS%+: 115
TS Added: +3518

Dominique Wilkins:
FG%+: 97
eFG%: 97
TS+: 100
TS Added: -32.4

Paul Pierce:
FG%+: 99
eFG%+: 103
TS%+: 107
TS Added: +1771

Dirk Nowitzki:
FG%+: 104
eFG%+: 104
TS%+: 108
TS Added: +2350

Kobe Bryant:
FG%+: 99
eFG%+: 99
TS%+: 104
TS Added: +1122

John Havlicek:
FG%+: 98
TS%+: 99
TS Added: -341

Dan Issel:
FG%+: 105
eFG%+: 105
TS%+: 107
TS Added: +1737

Rick Barry:
FG%+: 100
eFG%+: 100
TS%+: 104
TS Added: +883

James Harden:
FG%+: 97
eFG%+: 103
TS%+: 111
TS Added: +2419

Russell Westbrook:
FG%+: 96
eFG%+: 92
TS%+: 96
TS Added: -1141

Kevin Garnett:
FG%+: 110
eFG%: 103
TS%+: 103
TS Added: +821

George Gervin:
FG%+: 105
eFG%+: 105
TS%+: 107
TS Added: +1687

Reggie Miller:
FG%+: 102
eFG%: 112
TS%+: 116
TS Added: +3449

What are your thoughts and input on all this?

TS Added, career, is really the gold standard. Volume plus efficiency, indexed to league averages, and, you can have negative values per season even if you’re scoring a ton, but on really poor efficiency.

Kobe and Carmelo come to mind.

Among players if the last 40 years, Westbrook is absolutely the worst shooter.

Yeah, Kobe really comes to mind. His career scoring efficiency (104 TS+ ) was only about as good as Larry Bird (105 TS+) and much better than what Melo managed ...while posting one of the five highest career inflation-adjusted scoring rates in league history. I guess Larry Bird also "comes to mind" right buddy?

[MiamiBulls]

He has pretty decent numbers on the efficiency column for a volume scorer. Who does he compare do offensively all time?

*Does* he have good efficiency numbers for a high volume scorer, though?

League/Era Adjusted Efficiency Metrics (100 is league average):

Carmelo:
FG+: 98
eFG%+: 97
TS%+: 100
Career TS Added: +72.1

Contrast that with some others in his (general) vicinity in career points:

Durant:
FG+: 109
eFG%+: 108
TS%+: 113
Career TS Added: +3178

Dr. J:
FG+: 106
eFG%: 106
TS%+: 106
Career TS Added: +1670

Oscar Robertson:
FG+: 111
TS%+: 115
TS Added: +3518

Dominique Wilkins:
FG%+: 97
eFG%: 97
TS+: 100
TS Added: -32.4

Paul Pierce:
FG%+: 99
eFG%+: 103
TS%+: 107
TS Added: +1771

Dirk Nowitzki:
FG%+: 104
eFG%+: 104
TS%+: 108
TS Added: +2350

Kobe Bryant:
FG%+: 99
eFG%+: 99
TS%+: 104
TS Added: +1122

John Havlicek:
FG%+: 98
TS%+: 99
TS Added: -341

Dan Issel:
FG%+: 105
eFG%+: 105
TS%+: 107
TS Added: +1737

Rick Barry:
FG%+: 100
eFG%+: 100
TS%+: 104
TS Added: +883

James Harden:
FG%+: 97
eFG%+: 103
TS%+: 111
TS Added: +2419

Russell Westbrook:
FG%+: 96
eFG%+: 92
TS%+: 96
TS Added: -1141

Kevin Garnett:
FG%+: 110
eFG%: 103
TS%+: 103
TS Added: +821

George Gervin:
FG%+: 105
eFG%+: 105
TS%+: 107
TS Added: +1687

Reggie Miller:
FG%+: 102
eFG%: 112
TS%+: 116
TS Added: +3449

What are your thoughts and input on all this?

TS Added, career, is really the gold standard.

No TS ADD isn't the gold standard whatsoever, it overweights efficiency & has a notable collinearity issue.

Carmelo scoring in the Playoffs peaked at 26.7pts per 75 on +1.6% rTS (Defense Opponent Adjusted from '06-'11 Playoffs)

In the Regular Season had a 2 year Scoring Peak('13-'14): 29.5pts per 75 on +2.3% rTS

Carmelo isn't an historical level scorer, he isn't Top 10 or Top 25 scorer All-Time. As a scorer he is more comparable to Adrian Dantley or Tracy Mcgrady.

[ty 4191]

Yeah, Kobe really comes to mind. His career scoring efficiency (104 TS+ ) was only about as good as Larry Bird (105 TS+) and much better than what Melo managed ...while posting one of the five highest career inflation-adjusted scoring rates in league history. I guess Larry Bird also "comes to mind" right buddy?

Not sure what the reason is for the sarcasm and angry comment….?

Can you present Carmelo’s inflation adjusted numbers plus efficiency compared to his most similar historical comps?

Thanks, man. Appreciate it.

And, Merry Christmas!

[ty 4191]

No TS ADD isn't the gold standard whatsoever, it overweights efficiency & has a notable collinearity issue.

Can you please explain the flaws and colinearity confounds in TS Added? Thank you.

Also, Dantley doesn’t seem like a good comp, TS Added aside, efficiency wise, at all.

FG%+: 112
eFG%: 111
TS%+: 115

Carmelo:
FG+: 98
eFG%+: 97
TS%+: 100

Volume wise, adjusted for inflation, absolutely.

PPG per 75 possessions:
Dantley: 23.9
Melo: 24.6

McGrady seems like a much better comp. Relatively, poor efficiency, like Melo, but very similar volume, adjusted for inflation.

[penbeast0]

Alex English

Alex English:
FG%+: 105
eFG%: 104
TS%+: 103
TS Added: +632

Carmelo:
FG+: 98
eFG%+: 97
TS%+: 100
Career TS Added: +72.1

(He does look like a very comp for Melo, but, I think he was probably a better scorer and more efficient one, at that…)

English was a better playmaker, Carmelo the better rebounder, English the more consistent defender and clearly the better locker room guy (lots of humanitarian awards v. Carmelo's final season in Denver as he tried to force his way to NY).

[Colbinii]

Alex English

Alex English:
FG%+: 105
eFG%: 104
TS%+: 103
TS Added: +632

Carmelo:
FG+: 98
eFG%+: 97
TS%+: 100
Career TS Added: +72.1

(He does look like a very comp for Melo, but, I think he was probably a better scorer and more efficient one, at that…)

TS+ isn't perfect as these players played in wildly different era's.

Carmelo's volume was also higher, but it is important to compare the main prime stretches of their career, not the career as a whole.

[ty 4191]

TS+ isn't perfect as these players played in wildly different era's.

Carmelo's volume was also higher, but it is important to compare the main prime stretches of their career, not the career as a whole.

1. That’s fair. Re: TS+ in wildly different eras. What metrics would you use instead?

2. What years would you use for English’s prime and also Melo’s?

[Dr Positivity]

I'd say Tatum's skillset is similar except if he didn't care about defense or passing and had a personality where being a star off the court and making a lot of money is more important than improving his game and winning championships. The type of guy casuals overrate compared to RealGM like Kyrie cause it looks good when he hits difficult shots. Efficiency definitely not a calling card since he took too many hard midranges although he could get to the line and hit 3s. I guess slight edge in raw talent to Melo compared to Tatum, but overall Tatum's probably about as good as it's going to get for the "what if Melo had good intangibles" alt universe version, it still wouldn't be as good as Lebron or peak Wade, but easily preferable to the real Melo due to the defense, passing and leadership. Melo also came a bit earlier era than ideal for him and therefore had to be used as a midrange driven SF beside 2 no spacing big lineups like Kenyon Martin and Camby/Nene and his 3pt volume was not as high as I would have been later, the version I liked the most was as a PF with the Knicks when after getting Kidd and Chandler they had a clear 2011 Mavs thing going on with him as the Dirk. Also why he was great in international since he was PF there. If not for his college/international career I wouldn't put Melo in the HOF though I guess those can push him over the line.

[tsherkin]

He has pretty decent numbers on the efficiency column for a volume scorer. Who does he compare do offensively all time?

Does he? 10 seasons below league average, three more at 100-102 TS+. Mostly wasn't that efficient at all. 06, 08 and 2013 are the only seasons where he had consequential separation from league average. 11 seasons with negative TSAdd against only one with 100+ TSAdd.

Unimpressive playmaker who spent a LOT of possession time isolating and letting his team HC offense stagnate for fadeaways.

He had a nice little offensive peak in New York when he started playing small stretch 4 in the EC instead of SF in the West. Decent but unremarkable on O in Denver, and a consistently negative defender. 07 to around 2012, he was in the neighborhood of +3 O-EPM, which is solid but well below the impact you'd imagine from popular opinion. Definitely a notably higher-impact guy with the Knicks, though, and he always benefited from having a really savvy, veteran point guard running the show. Billups in both Denver and New York coincided with strong performances from Melo individually, at least on O.

In the end, a pretty good offensive player overrated because of fan preference for the old-school aesthetics of his game, but consistently inferior to the top-tier players in the game.