2024 Draft Lottery Odds

[Statistician MK]

For a good position of the Raptors before the draft lottery, I am not too much interested in the results achieved by the Warriors and everyone who is currently better than them (GSW, CHI, HOU, LAL, UTA etc.). Most likely, all of them will end up being better ranked than the Raptors.
I am not interested in SA, WAS & DET results either. These three teams will almost certainly end up being ranked lower than the Raptors.

In the fight for a worse regular season ranking, the Raptors will be fighting against the teams with a yellow background in my chart below (ATL, MEM, BKN, POR & CHA). I will root for these five teams.

This means that tonight I will follow the results of these matches:
LA Clippers @ Toronto Raptors
Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks
Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets
Orlando Magic @ Memphis Grizzlies
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs

[Rapsfan07]

For a good position of the Raptors before the draft lottery, I am not too much interested in the results achieved by the Warriors and everyone who is currently better than them (GSW, CHI, HOU, LAL, UTA etc.). Most likely, all of them will end up being better ranked than the Raptors.
I am not interested in SA, WAS & DET results either. These three teams will almost certainly end up being ranked lower than the Raptors.

In the fight for a worse regular season ranking, the Raptors will be fighting against the teams with a yellow background in my chart below (ATL, MEM, BKN, POR & CHA). I will root for these five teams.

This means that tonight I will follow the results of these matches:
LA Clippers @ Toronto Raptors
Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks
Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets
Orlando Magic @ Memphis Grizzlies
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs

Great chart, thanks for the information.

Really crucial tank night. Aside from MAYBE the Hornets vs Rockets game and Blazers vs. Spurs game, I think every other game is winnable by the teams we need to win.

Ultimately though, I think we're just too talented to outtank the Hornets, Spurs, Pistons and Wizards. The Hornets already moved Rozier and the Wizards are probably going to move Jones before the deadline.

The highest (lowest) I could see us getting is 5th worst, which is not much better than we are right now at 6th. Still, we need to do everything we can do hold onto our pick this year. At this point, it would just be massive waste of the season to convey a Top 10 pick for Poeltl.

[alevirfe]

thanks for this, I've been wondering what final ranking would guarantee our pick doesn't convey to the Spurs

looking at the chart, it looks like only the last two spots guarantee we keep the pick

BUT, a bottom 5 record gives us a 70%+ chance. not horrible

[DelAbbot]

Username checks out

[JShuttlesworth]

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

[LoveMyRaps]

Gonna be real shambles if we drop to #7 on lottery night.

[SFour]

I didn't realize 6th was a 50/50 coin-toss between keeping it and giving it to the spurs

Masai really messed up with the top 6 protection, it should've been top 10 protection considering Poeltl was on an expiring contract

[720]

Sad reality is I don’t think we’re catching Portland and the Grizzlies will eventually tank better than us. JJJ will probably sit at some point.

We gotta hope for a Scottie Barnes type miracle to move up to the top 4 to keep the pick.

The only way we stay at 6 by the lottery is if we trade some guys like Dennis, Gary, Boucher, Brown, etc (at which point it’s only like a 40 something chance we keep the pick).

[720]

I didn't realize 6th was a 50/50 coin-toss between keeping it and giving it to the spurs

Masai really messed up with the top 6 protection, it should've been top 10 protection considering Poeltl was on an expiring contract

Heck even a top 8. Like wtf were they thinking?

[WuTang_OG]

We never get luck in these except for Barnes

I hope they keep it this year top 6 then regroup next off-season and hopefully aim for the playoffs and give SA a worse pick next yr

[Childs]

The fact they made the top 6 protection extend to 2025, and 2026. It's Jakob Poeltl on an expiring deal, not prime Marc Gasol.

[720]

We never get luck in these except for Barnes

I hope they keep it this year top 6 then regroup next off-season and hopefully aim for the playoffs and give SA a worse pick next yr

We’re probably gonna be in the lotto both years. We gotta pray the basketball gods give us the lotto pick both years.

[artsncrafts]

You guys forget how bad the Raps are, 4th is in reach! But even if they lose it its not that big a deal, will still be top 10 in 2025 and they have a bunch of 2024 picks, albeit, late picks.

[WuTang_OG]

We never get luck in these except for Barnes

I hope they keep it this year top 6 then regroup next off-season and hopefully aim for the playoffs and give SA a worse pick next yr

We’re probably gonna be in the lotto both years. We gotta pray the basketball gods give us the lotto pick both years.

Its still only top 6 next year.

Ideally we want to keep it this year since it looks like it will be top 6-7 and then give them a back end lotto or 15 + next season

gotta get better though

[bboyskinnylegs]

the jump from #7 slot into top 4 is a major risk. It happened when we got Scottie, it happened when the Kings got Keegan, it happened when the Bulls got Pat Williams (also the Hornets going from 8 to 3 to get Lamelo). IF the aim is to try to keep our pick this year, having a buffer of a pick or two would certainly help. But maybe we prefer rolling the dice heading into the draft at that #7 spot again.

[Mak]

With some luck Portland could surpass us. They could get another win today, we play them on 2nd night of back to back. And generally they have been playing better lately.

[StopitLeo]

For a good position of the Raptors before the draft lottery, I am not too much interested in the results achieved by the Warriors and everyone who is currently better than them (GSW, CHI, HOU, LAL, UTA etc.). Most likely, all of them will end up being better ranked than the Raptors.
I am not interested in SA, WAS & DET results either. These three teams will almost certainly end up being ranked lower than the Raptors.

In the fight for a worse regular season ranking, the Raptors will be fighting against the teams with a yellow background in my chart below (ATL, MEM, BKN, POR & CHA). I will root for these five teams.

This means that tonight I will follow the results of these matches:
LA Clippers @ Toronto Raptors
Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks
Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets
Orlando Magic @ Memphis Grizzlies
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs

Finishing 7th is the disappointment sweet spot. You either jump into the top 4 or you convey the pick between 7-10.

[refshateRaps]

The fact they made the top 6 protection extend to 2025, and 2026. It's Jakob Poeltl on an expiring deal, not prime Marc Gasol.

The FO and quite a few pumpers here are praying for a miracle. Heads will roll if we barely lose our pick for Poeltl

[Brinbe]

portland's gonna end up passing us pretty soon, so we may well finish up bottom five. Charlotte's gonna sell off so I doubt we catch them.

Gonna be a funny scenario where it'll be 50/50 on hopes that we keep or convey that pick.

[Childs]

We never get luck in these except for Barnes

I hope they keep it this year top 6 then regroup next off-season and hopefully aim for the playoffs and give SA a worse pick next yr

Well in 2006, we had a 9% chance to land the number 1 pick. A legend was born

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