The argument for Longevity

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The argument for Longevity 

Post#1 » by Iwasawitness » Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:06 pm

I asked this question in response to this in another thread but I wanted to bring this to light because I think it's an important topic of discussion to be had, and that's relating to the value of longevity, and to what degree it should matter when explaining where someone belongs on the all time rankings. The post that I replied to I will post here, but I won't have the users name in post, since this isn't meant to call out said user or anything of the sort, but rather to address the argument.

Okay let's try to distill the above. If someone is the greatest player it stands to reason he is the greatest at something.

All-time leading scorer

I can accept this as something that qualifies as something that can be described as greatest. But it is one determined mainly by longevity.

Most playoff series wins
Most playoff individual wins


Seemingly strong arguments for something related to the playoffs—but what? Ultimately I can only see a longevity claim.

- 20x All-Star (including 3x MVP)
- 19x All-NBA (including 13x 1st team)
- 6x All-Defense (including 5x 1st team)


Are those records? So how do we fashion this into a greatest statement? The most awarded player?

What I arrive at then is the argument that LeBron is the greatest player because he has had the greatest longevity and is the most awarded player ever.

If that floats your boat, great.


What is the argument against Longevity? Why does "this is a longevity thing" suddenly discredit the achievement someone has? Does that really hurt the credibility of being the all time leading scorer? This doesn't just apply to LeBron who is the current record holder. This applies to Kareem as well. Why should we push achievements to the side simply because of longevity? Why is it a bad thing?
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#2 » by Harry Garris » Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:11 pm

Lebron's longevity isn't a bad thing. The argument is simply that when we go to determine the greatness of a player his peak performance should be weighted more than the longevity of his play.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#3 » by CodeBreaker » Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:25 pm

Not a bad thing. But holding it against someone who clearly peaked higher and still played long enough is bad.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#4 » by YogurtProducer » Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:40 pm

I mean there is an obvious balance.

If a player was drafted, put up 39/15/10 as a rookie and won a title and then retired, would we consider them the GOAT? Maybe the GOAT peak, but not the GOAT player.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#5 » by GSWFan1994 » Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:48 pm

I'm not against longevity. You have to take it into account, obviously, when analyzing a player's career.

But you play the game to win. You compete. You try to beat your opponent to the fullest.

Nothing more, nothing less. You don't play to accumulate stats.

It's as simple as that.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#6 » by ropjhk » Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:50 pm

Longevity adds to a players greatness but the returns are diminished every year that gets added. As great as Lebron has been for his age this season, it's not really adding much to his GOAT case.

Longevity is only one consideration out of many when it comes to greatness. Lebron's longevity has been so impressive that it has become the main component of his GOAT case but longevity is usually not the primary measure of greatness for most people.

Lebron is clearly past his peak so he's not going to win any more GOAT votes on the basis of his on court play. At this point it's just about racking up accomplishments and showing the ability to defy father time. Maybe in the end it will be enough to topple Jordan in the eyes of the general public but at this point it still seems unlikely.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#7 » by Saints14 » Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:57 pm

I have LeBron #1 largely due to his large longevity gap over Jordan but the counter-argument I find compelling is basically "gun to your head, who would you take to win a Finals series". And many would say that Jordan proved he was the best by that measure and that it wasn't a fluke, and anything beyond that is gravy.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#8 » by TheNG » Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:57 pm

If a player plays so many years but even though he has such a long career he has less MVPs and less rings than others, it says a lot about his dominance.
If you are not able to really dominate, adding more years will not change your status...

Bill Russell - 11 rings, 5 MVPs (13 seasons)
Kareem - 6 rings, 6 MVPs (20 seasons)
Jordan - 6 rings, 5 MVPs (15 seasons)
LeBron - 4 rings, 4 MVPs (21 seasons)
Magic - 5 rings, 3 MVPs (13 seasons)
Duncan - 5 rings, 2 MVPs (19 seasons)
Wilt - 2 rings, 4 MVPs (14 seasons)

Out of these players:
Jordan won 4 times MVP + ring in the same year
Russell 3 times
Kareem and LeBron twice.

So bottom line:
Jordan had the best peak.
Russell had the best career.
Kareem had the best longevity (unless you give advantage to a player who skipped college but still achieved only 2/3 during the same amounts of seasons)

Any one of these 3 has an argument.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#9 » by og15 » Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:59 pm

If two players have the same peak years and similar success and one has greater longevity, then it's going to "break the tie", but I don't see longevity as being able to overcome another player having generally clearly greater peak years.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#10 » by Iwasawitness » Mon Feb 26, 2024 5:02 pm

GSWFan1994 wrote:I'm not against longevity. You have to take it into account, obviously, when analyzing a player's career.

But you play the game to win. You compete. You try to beat your opponent to the fullest.

Nothing more, nothing less. You don't play to accumulate stats.

It's as simple as that.


And when do you think LeBron became the kind of player you are describing? The one who plays to accumulate stats?

TheNG wrote:If a player plays so many years but even though he has such a long career he has less MVPs and less rings than others, it says a lot about his dominance.
If you are not able to really dominate, adding more years will not change your status...


I don't really think this says anything at all about a players dominance, at least not when it comes to those things you just mentioned.

For one, MVP's are not all created equal, same with championships. They aren't something you stack up against one another, compare with the number another player has, and determine who was truly more valuable to their teams. Otherwise, Jordan has no argument of being greater than Bill Russell, who has the same number of MVPs, and more championships in a shorter amount of years played (13 to 15, and even if you take away the two seasons Jordan played in Washington, that means that even at an equal amount of seasons played, Russell still achieved more). These kinds of things require a deep dive and legitimate understanding behind the why and how, otherwise they're just empty accolades (in another example, Jordan's got more MVPs, but none are arguably as impressive as LeBron's 2013 MVP, which was one vote shy of making him the first unanimous MVP). Same thing applies to the championships (Jordan has the perfect finals record, more championships, but LeBron has beaten two different finals opponents who had superior SRS scores than his, including the 73 win Warriors who had almost a 5+ SRS advantage, where as Jordan always went into his finals series with his teams possessing superior SRS scores).

Second, it is a well known fact that LeBron purposely coasted during the regular season after the 2013 NBA season, where as Jordan usually didn't. So it stands within reason that Jordan would have more MVP's at the very least. But even despite this, there were two different seasons where LeBron even when not playing at 100% effort (2018 and 2020), he was still second in MVP voting and some still argue to this day he should have won said awards (I say yes to the former, no to the latter).

Saints14 wrote:I have LeBron #1 largely due to his large longevity gap over Jordan but the counter-argument I find compelling is basically "gun to your head, who would you take to win a Finals series". And many would say that Jordan proved he was the best by that measure and that it wasn't a fluke, and anything beyond that is gravy.


I would still go with LeBron in that scenario.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#11 » by NO-KG-AI » Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:14 pm

YogurtProducer wrote:I mean there is an obvious balance.

If a player was drafted, put up 39/15/10 as a rookie and won a title and then retired, would we consider them the GOAT? Maybe the GOAT peak, but not the GOAT player.


I mean assuming the numbers are great beyond raw numbers only, he's likely the best player to ever play basketball. He won't be the most accomplished, but that's not the same thing.

Longevity and consistent exellence tell me a lot about a person as a man and an athlete, but it doesn't usually tell me who is actually better at the craft.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#12 » by Drakeem » Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:22 pm

YogurtProducer wrote:I mean there is an obvious balance.

If a player was drafted, put up 39/15/10 as a rookie and won a title and then retired, would we consider them the GOAT? Maybe the GOAT peak, but not the GOAT player.
If their play matched the numbers, yeah I'd do it. I saw all I needed to see to say thats the greatest basketball player I've ever watched.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#13 » by Iwasawitness » Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:25 pm

Drakeem wrote:
YogurtProducer wrote:I mean there is an obvious balance.

If a player was drafted, put up 39/15/10 as a rookie and won a title and then retired, would we consider them the GOAT? Maybe the GOAT peak, but not the GOAT player.
If their play matched the numbers, yeah I'd do it. I saw all I needed to see to say thats the greatest basketball player I've ever watched.


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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#14 » by ropjhk » Mon Feb 26, 2024 7:00 pm

All things considered Lebron wins out in longevity but it's not like Jordan also doesn't rank high in the longevity category.

Even when you account for the years away from the game Jordan has really good longevity compared to most other NBA players when you include Jordan's college years. Jordan played until he was 40. He was very good for a 40 year old.

Lebron won't turn 40 until next season but he already beats Jordan in the durability and longevity categories. That said, Jordan has enough longevity and durability in his career that I don't think Lebron's advantage here surpasses MJ's advantage in other categories.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#15 » by Roger Murdock » Mon Feb 26, 2024 7:06 pm

The best player in the NBA usually doesn’t win the title every year. I’d expect the third best player in the NBA will win more titles over a 10 year stretch than the best player will win over a 5 year stretch.

Longevity gives you more opportunities to win and build a legacy. LeBron has more seasons as the best player in the NBA than anyone in history (debatable but probably true) and he has considerably more seasons as a top 10 player than anyone in NBA history, to the point where it’s not really close.

Why is Longevity important? Imagine if Tom Brady got hurt or fell off 5-6 years earlier like most players do. Then he loses 3 rings that he still won ‘passed his prime’

Longevity = more bites at the Apple
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#16 » by YogurtProducer » Mon Feb 26, 2024 7:26 pm

NO-KG-AI wrote:
YogurtProducer wrote:I mean there is an obvious balance.

If a player was drafted, put up 39/15/10 as a rookie and won a title and then retired, would we consider them the GOAT? Maybe the GOAT peak, but not the GOAT player.


I mean assuming the numbers are great beyond raw numbers only, he's likely the best player to ever play basketball. He won't be the most accomplished, but that's not the same thing.

Longevity and consistent exellence tell me a lot about a person as a man and an athlete, but it doesn't usually tell me who is actually better at the craft.

Whenever the "GOAT" conversation happens though it never is "who had the better peak". If it was, no one would bring up 6 rings for MJ, or 20 al-star games for LBJ, or whatever other criteria you want to use.

Generally, when people are ranking their "top 10" players or whatever they are not saying "here is the top 10 players based on their peak". It is always "here is the top 10 players based on some combination of peak, accolades, longevity, era, impact, et.c".
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#17 » by MavsDirk41 » Mon Feb 26, 2024 7:35 pm

Longevity is an argument but for me is has no more value than peak performance/winning/accolades or accomplishments that a player was awarded during his playing days. All time scoring leader is great and all, but is it more impressive than winning 10 scoring titles? There are a lot of factors involved but longevity is just one of them.

James, Jordan, Kareem, and Russell imo all have goat cases but im not taking anyone over Jordan. Greatest peak and only Russell won more.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#18 » by TheNG » Mon Feb 26, 2024 7:52 pm

Roger Murdock wrote:The best player in the NBA usually doesn’t win the title every year. I’d expect the third best player in the NBA will win more titles over a 10 year stretch than the best player will win over a 5 year stretch.

Longevity gives you more opportunities to win and build a legacy. LeBron has more seasons as the best player in the NBA than anyone in history (debatable but probably true) and he has considerably more seasons as a top 10 player than anyone in NBA history, to the point where it’s not really close.

Why is Longevity important? Imagine if Tom Brady got hurt or fell off 5-6 years earlier like most players do. Then he loses 3 rings that he still won ‘passed his prime’

Longevity = more bites at the Apple

If we look at efficiency rating, then:
Kareem had 9 seasons being number 1
Wilt had 8
MJ had 7
James had 6
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_top_10.html
If you just look at being a "top10" in that metric, LeBron is 19 times there while Kareem is 18. But Kareem wasn't able to skip college as LeBron did and started at 22. Had LeBron started at 22, he has only 17 occurrences there.

So I strongly disagree with all your statements.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#19 » by Roger Murdock » Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:03 pm

TheNG wrote:
Roger Murdock wrote:The best player in the NBA usually doesn’t win the title every year. I’d expect the third best player in the NBA will win more titles over a 10 year stretch than the best player will win over a 5 year stretch.

Longevity gives you more opportunities to win and build a legacy. LeBron has more seasons as the best player in the NBA than anyone in history (debatable but probably true) and he has considerably more seasons as a top 10 player than anyone in NBA history, to the point where it’s not really close.

Why is Longevity important? Imagine if Tom Brady got hurt or fell off 5-6 years earlier like most players do. Then he loses 3 rings that he still won ‘passed his prime’

Longevity = more bites at the Apple

If we look at efficiency rating, then:
Kareem had 9 seasons being number 1
Wilt had 8
MJ had 7
James had 6
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_top_10.html
If you just look at being a "top10" in that metric, LeBron is 19 times there while Kareem is 18. But Kareem wasn't able to skip college as LeBron did and started at 22. Had LeBron started at 22, he has only 17 occurrences there.

So I strongly disagree with all your statements.


PER is a reverse engineered statistic that was intentionally weighted in a way so that top players best seasons standout. It was specifically designed to make Jordan and Kareem and Wilt look the best, because they were considered the best when PER was made so if they weren’t at the top when it was created it wouldn’t have been valued. But PER is a poor predictive metric and not helpful for future.

It’s not an useful impact metric. All it tells us is that a metric designed to make Jordan and Kareem look the best succeeds at making Jordan and Kareem look the best.
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Re: The argument for Longevity 

Post#20 » by TheNG » Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:09 pm

Roger Murdock wrote:
TheNG wrote:
Roger Murdock wrote:The best player in the NBA usually doesn’t win the title every year. I’d expect the third best player in the NBA will win more titles over a 10 year stretch than the best player will win over a 5 year stretch.

Longevity gives you more opportunities to win and build a legacy. LeBron has more seasons as the best player in the NBA than anyone in history (debatable but probably true) and he has considerably more seasons as a top 10 player than anyone in NBA history, to the point where it’s not really close.

Why is Longevity important? Imagine if Tom Brady got hurt or fell off 5-6 years earlier like most players do. Then he loses 3 rings that he still won ‘passed his prime’

Longevity = more bites at the Apple

If we look at efficiency rating, then:
Kareem had 9 seasons being number 1
Wilt had 8
MJ had 7
James had 6
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_top_10.html
If you just look at being a "top10" in that metric, LeBron is 19 times there while Kareem is 18. But Kareem wasn't able to skip college as LeBron did and started at 22. Had LeBron started at 22, he has only 17 occurrences there.

So I strongly disagree with all your statements.


PER is a reverse engineered statistic that was intentionally weighted in a way so that top players best seasons standout. It was specifically designed to make Jordan and Kareem and Wilt look the best, because they were considered the best when PER was made so if they weren’t at the top when it was created it wouldn’t have been valued. But PER is a poor predictive metric and not helpful for future.

It’s not an useful impact metric. All it tells us is that a metric designed to make Jordan and Kareem look the best succeeds at making Jordan and Kareem look the best.

So LBJ has:
less rings
less MVPs
less times number 1 at PER
I think the NBA made everything just for him to look bad. Maybe the NBA have something against him.
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