Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem

[IceColdCubano]

Ethan Skolnick says Jimmy is demanding the max and will not take a penny less. He doesn’t care about the makeup of the roster, he just wants his money. If he doesn’t get the max there’s going to be a real problem.

He's got the max for the next 2 seasons

Well he's making 49M next and then has a 52.4M option... so the last thing you want is to have a tumultuous year with Jimmy, trade rumors all year, and then a first or second round playoff exit, cuz then he could just leave to Philly or NYC with thibs and Brunson or Houston etc and we get nothing.

I think there's no chance that happens imo. Think Jimmy wants to be here. And we want him here. I just don't see how we turn herro and pieces into donovan and then extend donovan-bam-jimmy as theyd all be up for extensions and not be uber effed by new CBA and have terrible depth.

Um nobody afraid of a 37 year old Jimmy, if he leaves in 2 years hed be a shell of himself, id be like getting upset at Kyle Lowry in Philly right now.

[DayofMourning]

If Philly was open to do 3 firsts for JB, Id be down. Thats a good return for 35 year old JB.

Tbh, he and Embiid will likely miss 100 games combined a year. Picks should be in the teens.

[AirP.]

He's got the max for the next 2 seasons

Well he's making 49M next and then has a 52.4M option... so the last thing you want is to have a tumultuous year with Jimmy, trade rumors all year, and then a first or second round playoff exit, cuz then he could just leave to Philly or NYC with thibs and Brunson or Houston etc and we get nothing.

I think there's no chance that happens imo. Think Jimmy wants to be here. And we want him here. I just don't see how we turn herro and pieces into donovan and then extend donovan-bam-jimmy as theyd all be up for extensions and not be uber effed by new CBA and have terrible depth.

Um nobody afraid of a 37 year old Jimmy, if he leaves in 2 years hed be a shell of himself, id be like getting upset at Kyle Lowry in Philly right now.

So, you think Lowry and Butler work on keeping their bodies in tip top shape? You expect he'll be a lesser player but how far will his game fall off from a player who's in great shape and his games is built on strength and BBIQ, in the last 2 seasons at age 33 and 34 Butler had his best TS% and ORTG seasons of his career, I'm trying to figure out how far you think he'll drop off in 3 season, to a backup, a starter, an above average starter or star. I think he drops no further than an above average starter and if he wanted to, probably could go to age 40 as a rotational player if not still good enough to be a starter.

I believe as long as Butler's putting in the same amount of work in off the court, he's not going to decline much at all in the next few years. If he can give a team anything near 20 ppg on above .580 or higher TS% and 120+ ORTG (which all are drop offs from the last few years) you still have a very good player on your roster.

Here's a list of players this year that did what I suspect Butler (declining) will be able to do the next few years but yes, injuries are a risk. Sorted by PPG. Also, the taking ~20 games off has to be reduced, if you can't play more games there is no way Miami should feel comfortable extending him to the amount he wants.

Code: Select all

+-----------------------+---+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---------+
|Player                 |Age|Team|Games|TSPCT|FGA |PPG |APG |RPG |2PT% |3pt% |ORTG|DRTG|NetRating|
+-----------------------+---+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---------+
|Joel Embiid            |29 |PHI |39   |0.644|21.8|34.7|5.6 |11  |0.556|0.388|124 |109 |15       |
|Luka Dončić            |24 |DAL |70   |0.617|23.6|33.9|9.8 |9.2 |0.573|0.382|122 |113 |9        |
|Giannis Antetokounmpo  |29 |MIL |73   |0.649|18.8|30.4|6.5 |11.5|0.645|0.274|126 |112 |14       |
|Shai Gilgeous-Alexander|25 |OKC |75   |0.636|19.8|30.1|6.2 |5.5 |0.576|0.353|129 |110 |19       |
|Jalen Brunson          |27 |NYK |77   |0.592|21.4|28.7|6.7 |3.6 |0.516|0.401|124 |117 |7        |
|Devin Booker           |27 |PHO |68   |0.611|19.2|27.1|6.9 |4.5 |0.552|0.364|124 |117 |7        |
|Jayson Tatum           |25 |BOS |74   |0.604|19.3|26.9|4.9 |8.1 |0.542|0.376|121 |111 |10       |
|Nikola Jokić           |28 |DEN |79   |0.65 |17.9|26.4|9   |12.4|0.626|0.359|131 |108 |23       |
|Kyrie Irving           |31 |DAL |58   |0.608|19.5|25.6|5.2 |5   |0.548|0.411|122 |116 |6        |
|Anthony Davis          |30 |LAL |76   |0.621|16.9|24.7|3.5 |12.6|0.582|0.271|124 |109 |15       |
|DeMar DeRozan          |34 |CHI |79   |0.584|17.2|24  |5.3 |4.3 |0.509|0.333|122 |118 |4        |
|Kawhi Leonard          |32 |LAC |68   |0.626|17.1|23.7|3.6 |6.1 |0.569|0.417|124 |114 |10       |
|Lauri Markkanen        |26 |UTA |55   |0.631|16.2|23.2|2   |8.2 |0.559|0.399|128 |120 |8        |
|Pascal Siakam          |29 |IND |41   |0.602|15.8|21.3|3.7 |7.8 |0.58 |0.386|123 |119 |4        |
|Jimmy Butler           |34 |MIA |60   |0.626|13.2|20.8|5   |5.3 |0.519|0.414|129 |113 |16       |
|Tyrese Haliburton      |23 |IND |69   |0.605|15.2|20.1|10.9|3.9 |0.595|0.364|129 |119 |10       |
|Kristaps Porziņģis     |28 |BOS |57   |0.647|13.2|20.1|2   |7.2 |0.606|0.375|128 |109 |19       |
+-----------------------+---+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---------+

[carnageta]

Nobody is even talking about how Tatum is getting literally backpacked through the playoffs?!?!

He's the best player on the team and he's letting the 'others' carry the load right now, and they're winning by 30 points lol. If they were losing then it would be a problem

[Lennyzinho]

If Philly was open to do 3 firsts for JB, Id be down. Thats a good return for 35 year old JB.

Tbh, he and Embiid will likely miss 100 games combined a year. Picks should be in the teens.

You only consider taking that if it means landing Donovan and shedding cap space to sign someone else with herros trade exception, since he's gone to Cleveland.

If you can land a franchise cornerstone to play with Bam for the next decade and clear up cap space to sign depth around them and it costs you JB and Herro, you do it.

[AirP.]

If Philly was open to do 3 firsts for JB, Id be down. Thats a good return for 35 year old JB.

Tbh, he and Embiid will likely miss 100 games combined a year. Picks should be in the teens.

You only consider taking that if it means landing Donovan and shedding cap space to sign someone else with herros trade exception, since he's gone to Cleveland.

If you can land a franchise cornerstone to play with Bam for the next decade and clear up cap space to sign depth around them and it costs you JB and Herro, you do it.

This should be Miami's mindset basically every year they don't have an MVP candidate on the roster. It's just really hard to get those players.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Nobody is even talking about how Tatum is getting literally backpacked through the playoffs?!?!

He's the best player on the team and he's letting the 'others' carry the load right now, and they're winning by 30 points lol. If they were losing then it would be a problem

Hes playing like **** and getting backpacked lol

[Lennyzinho]

New media rights negotiations are wild. Cap is gonna keep going up 10% annually if and when this goes thru.

The NBA's new media rights deals could surpass $7 billion per season, which would represent an increase of nearly 170 percent from its current $2.6 billion per deals with ESPN and TNT. According to reported figures, the combined rights fees from ESPN, Amazon and NBC (or TNT) are at $6.9 billion per season.

Amazon will pay approximately $1.8 billion per season, according to Andrew Marchand of The Athletic. The deal will include the Conference Finals every other year as they will alternate with whoever wins the third rights between NBC and TNT. It also will include the NBA Cup and In-Season Tournament.

TNT can match NBC's offer of $2.5 billion per season and talks are ongoing.

ESPN's deal with the NBA, which includes the Finals and Conference Finals on an annual basis, will cost $2.6 billion per year.

A report in 2021 indicated that the NBA was seeking anywhere between $7 billion and $8 billion per year on its next deal. After a 2023 report cooled those expectations with a doubling of the current deal a more probable target, the NBA appears to be close to reaching its goal.

[VaDe255]

I don't think they are extending Jimmy.

Extending him for another year screws up the cap in 26/27 season. 2 max contracts and then also extensions of Niko, JJJ will be due. There is just no way you want a 37 year old Jimmy on a max that year.

Jimmy is human, requesting an extension and getting denied will affect him and if things do not work out this can get ugly.

The best course of action for the franchise and for Jimmy is to simply trade him (get him to a place where he has a real shot at winning a ring) and get smth. in return.
No matter what chairs you reshuffle on this Jimmy/Bam Titanic, it will sink.

[IceColdCubano]

Well he's making 49M next and then has a 52.4M option... so the last thing you want is to have a tumultuous year with Jimmy, trade rumors all year, and then a first or second round playoff exit, cuz then he could just leave to Philly or NYC with thibs and Brunson or Houston etc and we get nothing.

I think there's no chance that happens imo. Think Jimmy wants to be here. And we want him here. I just don't see how we turn herro and pieces into donovan and then extend donovan-bam-jimmy as theyd all be up for extensions and not be uber effed by new CBA and have terrible depth.

Um nobody afraid of a 37 year old Jimmy, if he leaves in 2 years hed be a shell of himself, id be like getting upset at Kyle Lowry in Philly right now.

So, you think Lowry and Butler work on keeping their bodies in tip top shape? You expect he'll be a lesser player but how far will his game fall off from a player who's in great shape and his games is built on strength and BBIQ, in the last 2 seasons at age 33 and 34 Butler had his best TS% and ORTG seasons of his career, I'm trying to figure out how far you think he'll drop off in 3 season, to a backup, a starter, an above average starter or star. I think he drops no further than an above average starter and if he wanted to, probably could go to age 40 as a rotational player if not still good enough to be a starter.

I believe as long as Butler's putting in the same amount of work in off the court, he's not going to decline much at all in the next few years. If he can give a team anything near 20 ppg on above .580 or higher TS% and 120+ ORTG (which all are drop offs from the last few years) you still have a very good player on your roster.

Here's a list of players this year that did what I suspect Butler (declining) will be able to do the next few years but yes, injuries are a risk. Sorted by PPG. Also, the taking ~20 games off has to be reduced, if you can't play more games there is no way Miami should feel comfortable extending him to the amount he wants.

Code: Select all

+-----------------------+---+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---------+
|Player                 |Age|Team|Games|TSPCT|FGA |PPG |APG |RPG |2PT% |3pt% |ORTG|DRTG|NetRating|
+-----------------------+---+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---------+
|Joel Embiid            |29 |PHI |39   |0.644|21.8|34.7|5.6 |11  |0.556|0.388|124 |109 |15       |
|Luka Dončić            |24 |DAL |70   |0.617|23.6|33.9|9.8 |9.2 |0.573|0.382|122 |113 |9        |
|Giannis Antetokounmpo  |29 |MIL |73   |0.649|18.8|30.4|6.5 |11.5|0.645|0.274|126 |112 |14       |
|Shai Gilgeous-Alexander|25 |OKC |75   |0.636|19.8|30.1|6.2 |5.5 |0.576|0.353|129 |110 |19       |
|Jalen Brunson          |27 |NYK |77   |0.592|21.4|28.7|6.7 |3.6 |0.516|0.401|124 |117 |7        |
|Devin Booker           |27 |PHO |68   |0.611|19.2|27.1|6.9 |4.5 |0.552|0.364|124 |117 |7        |
|Jayson Tatum           |25 |BOS |74   |0.604|19.3|26.9|4.9 |8.1 |0.542|0.376|121 |111 |10       |
|Nikola Jokić           |28 |DEN |79   |0.65 |17.9|26.4|9   |12.4|0.626|0.359|131 |108 |23       |
|Kyrie Irving           |31 |DAL |58   |0.608|19.5|25.6|5.2 |5   |0.548|0.411|122 |116 |6        |
|Anthony Davis          |30 |LAL |76   |0.621|16.9|24.7|3.5 |12.6|0.582|0.271|124 |109 |15       |
|DeMar DeRozan          |34 |CHI |79   |0.584|17.2|24  |5.3 |4.3 |0.509|0.333|122 |118 |4        |
|Kawhi Leonard          |32 |LAC |68   |0.626|17.1|23.7|3.6 |6.1 |0.569|0.417|124 |114 |10       |
|Lauri Markkanen        |26 |UTA |55   |0.631|16.2|23.2|2   |8.2 |0.559|0.399|128 |120 |8        |
|Pascal Siakam          |29 |IND |41   |0.602|15.8|21.3|3.7 |7.8 |0.58 |0.386|123 |119 |4        |
|Jimmy Butler           |34 |MIA |60   |0.626|13.2|20.8|5   |5.3 |0.519|0.414|129 |113 |16       |
|Tyrese Haliburton      |23 |IND |69   |0.605|15.2|20.1|10.9|3.9 |0.595|0.364|129 |119 |10       |
|Kristaps Porziņģis     |28 |BOS |57   |0.647|13.2|20.1|2   |7.2 |0.606|0.375|128 |109 |19       |
+-----------------------+---+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---------+

Proven by age in the history of the NBA, the moment a player hits 34 with the exemption of some that are outliers like Lebron, Steph, players production plummets significantly as its not smooth ascension downward. For someone who struggles to stay healthy on the court like Jimmy this becomes even far more difficult as he ages, this year proved what it begins to look like, as much as Butler would like to be the guy who wills teams to victory this will begin to be less and less probable, percentages our down substantially, visually you can see he doesn't have his lift, Jimmy has never been blocked more in any one year than this year, and his ability to score in the paint whether from FG% or Efficiency saw drop to comparable to middle of the league average as if he was a role player. It's evident why he is shooting more and more three's far more than ever as he knows his body is failing him and is trying to find a way to stay productive. We saw it in most of the playoff race clinching games against competition, he was our 3-4th most productive player making the most money out any one on the team. Additionally looking at our major loses or key games the player who was responsible for the majority of them in his non-production was Jimmy Butler himself scoring 12-14 points going scoreless in an entire half, not being engaged in either defense or offense. His Basketball IQ & Strength can only get him so far when the difference in speed and vertical leap on the younger players just overlap you greatly.

[IceColdCubano]

Nobody is even talking about how Tatum is getting literally backpacked through the playoffs?!?!

He's the best player on the team and he's letting the 'others' carry the load right now, and they're winning by 30 points lol. If they were losing then it would be a problem

Hes playing like **** and getting backpacked lol

Not gonna lie, Jimmy got backpacked many games in the last couple years in the playoffs by Hot shooting when he laid some eggs he would score 40 in a game then give you 14 in another. So every can have a little bit of that, if he does it through the entire playoffs we can have that conversation, but he literally has been playing fodder teams at the moment. The difference is in our case we needed Jimmy to be herculean 2-3 times in a series to win it, he doesn't, he has another 2-3 players who can put up a ton of points and he can piggy back on that. If he loses and its because hes still doing the same thing then I agree, hell he could get to the NBA finals with White putting up 39ppg and he would take that. Let's not be upset one team has the pieces in place to afford that treatment to his star player, Jimmy never had that benefit pulling a ton of titos around.

[Bishop45]

Saw it mentioned above, we DO own our pick this comimg draft, if it lands in the lottery.

With 3 studs at the top of the draft, THIS would be the season to fail miserably and reap the potential rewards.

Our pick is right outside the lottery at 15.

My bad. I meant 2025 draft. Sorry! At work.

A lotta teams might value that pick a lot...

[dean456]

Our pick is right outside the lottery at 15.

My bad. I meant 2025 draft. Sorry! At work.

A lotta teams might value that pick a lot...

We can't trade the pick, its already been traded but its lottery protected so if we are in the lottery next year we can use it.

[SoFlaKingReal]

Read on Twitter

[IceColdCubano]

Read on Twitter

[RexBoyWonder]

Read on Twitter

**** it, I might not be 100% rational But I want Jimmy to stay. Might be smarter to trade him now, but he's done enough for me to think with my heart and not just my head.

You keep Jimmy if he wants to retire here. He's the guy. He earned it, he's still our **** best player.

You keep the guy that creates the memories, you move the randoms around him.

Herro/Duncan/Martin/Picks - Pat need to bring another legit scorer/s to help take pressure of of Jimmy. Find the player, make the deal. Mitchell and Ingram should be gettable, we have some assets.

[greg4012]

Read on Twitter

**** it, I might not be 100% rational But I want Jimmy to stay. Might be smarter to trade him now, but he's done enough for me to think with my heart and not just my head.

You keep Jimmy if he wants to retire here. He's the guy. He earned it, he's still our **** best player.

You keep the guy that creates the memories, you move the randoms around him.

Herro/Duncan/Martin/Picks - Pat need to bring another legit scorer/s to help take pressure of of Jimmy. Find the player, make the deal. Mitchell and Ingram should be gettable, we have some assets.

I feel the same. But damn I don't like the rumblings of attempting to be held hostage for an additional max season if it compromises future team building.

[IceColdCubano]

Read on Twitter

For Context purposes of those that do not know, he said this quote prior to the Pat Riley presser.

We don't know how he personally feels at the moment after the presser other than what the his agent said from Ira interview.

Wanting to do something, and being capable of doing something are two different things, I appreciate Jimmy for everything his done, and I would love nothing more that winning one with him as well. However if our outlook has to change for the better of the team, I am not against it either.

What ever the team decides to do moving forward I play no favorites, I'll keep following them as a fan, and wish Jimmy the best were ever he goes.

[SerialChiller]

The contract extension would be a horrible move and I'm ready to move on from Butler if it comes to it. He's on the decline and making a crazy amount of money to coast through the season and miss plenty of games to boot. The Heat have failed to put another star beside him and Bam or even a legit number 2 bucket getter, or even enough size to win it all. Now it's likely too late, unless they can get Mitchell and get rid of Herro which I don't know how confident I am in that, it's time to move on and start building around the youth movement of Jovic/JJJ/Bam etc. Herro needs to go somehow regardless, he clearly ain't it and his contract is a massive mistake already.

Getting Mitchell would be perfect for Bam's timeline as well so keeping Butler in that case on his current deal makes sense then to go all in. But you don't want Butler making 52 million for 2 more years after that in his late 30s. That would hinder the team with Mitchell and Bam. To me it's someone like Mitchell or bust for Jimmy's time left here. If the Heat can't make that type of move then Jimmy has to go while he still has value and the Heat need to be proactive.

[eddieheatfan]

Read on Twitter

sorry but you coasting during the season negates all the stuff that you are saying. you are getting older too. also you cant bring miami to a championship by yourself and the current core cant help you do it either. they are mediocre. so its even better for you to go somewhere else at this point.


yeah