"Star" Outcomes - what does a successful rebuild look like in terms of player development?

[Silvie Lysandra]

The purpose of this exercise is to project what "stardom" would look like from our existing core of youth, and ballpark a relative likelihood of getting there. With no obvious "tier 1" young talents (aka not a Wemby, SGA pre-breakout, Mobley, etc), and a draft with no obvious elite prospects, we're at the moment relying on a breakout from one of our existing talents. So the purpose of this exercise is to map out what that looks like. How do you envision, say a Bilal, or a Deni, or even a Jared Butler, getting to high quality starter or even all-star level? Bonus points for proposing a statline.

For example:

Deni becomes a reliable secondary ballhandler, improves his shooting to where he's hitting 2-3 3s a game at decent volume, and improves his finishing, which results in a switchable 2-way wing player who can score 18-22 a game on decent efficiency while providing solid playmaking ability.

21/9/5 per 36, 48/38/77 shooting splits, all-Defensive 2nd team.

We can do this for prospective rookies as well, though that's not the focus of this exercise.

[NatP4]

I think Vukcevic turns out to be an all star caliber player. His offensive numbers in Europe were elite. His brief showing in the NBA was really good (with an absurd on/off differential). Has legit NBA C length (standing reach/wingspan), and will flirt with 50/40/90 shooting splits for most of his career.

His major swing skill is rebounding. Needs to get stronger and continue to acclimate to NBA physicality, but his potential is through the roof.

Age 20 season per 36 (about 500 total minutes)

Euroleague: 16.1 points 9.0 rebounds 2.0 assists 1.0 steals 1.6 blocks 48/40/94 shooting

ABA: 21.0 points 6.8 rebounds 1.2 assists 0.8 steals 1.1 blocks 54/44/80 shooting

NBA: 20.0 points 8.5 rebounds 3.1 assists 1.2 steals 1.6 blocks 43/28/77 shooting

You really can’t ask for a better rookie/age 20 season from your 42nd overall pick.

[Silvie Lysandra]

So basically your "boom" for Vuke is something like 22/9/4/1.5 per 36? That's interesting. But despite his length, is he going to be good enough defensively to play those minutes?

[NatP4]

So basically your "boom" for Vuke is something like 22/9/4/1.5 per 36? That's interesting. But despite his length, is he going to be good enough defensively to play those minutes?

I think it’s all about rebounding for Vuk. The offense will be good enough to overcome the mediocre defense.

Lauri Markkanen is the player I point to in comparison. In his age 25 (breakout/allstar/MIP) season, his rebounding exploded. Went from 6.6 to 9.0 rebounds per 36, doubled his offensive rebounding production. Also significantly increased his free throw rate.

Pre-draft comparison: https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=tristan-vukcevic--lauri-markkanen

[nate33]

The Wizard who is closest to be a "star" is Deni. Since February, Deni has averaged 19, 9 and 4 on a TS% of .600. He gets most of those points in transition, or when attacking a rotating defense, or when posting up a mismatch after a switch. Those are "elite role player" numbers but not star numbers.

For Deni to make the leap to "star", he will need to score against a set defense as the first option. In other words, be the guy that bends a defense so other players can average 15-18 points per game as role players. To be a star, Deni will need a bread and butter move that works against single coverage at high efficiency. I think his best bet is to develop a reliable step-back 3-point shot a la Luka. Having the step-back combined with his already-perfected Eurostep floater finish will be the perfect combo. Play off of him, and he hits the 3, play him tight, and he drives hard and muscles his way to the rim.

He has been working on the step-back and it has improved over the past 2 years, but it's not reliable yet.

[AFM]

I'm looking at Johnny Davis to make a giant leap next season. A giant step so to speak, and then he can change his last name to Coltrane. I think he could easily average 24/8/7 on elite efficiency if he can just be a little more consistent with his jumper, ball handling, explosiveness, and craftiness with the basketball. It's a long summer but the Wizards have an excellent track record of developing young talent.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm looking at Johnny Davis to make a giant leap next season. A giant step so to speak, and then he can change his last name to Coltrane. I think he could easily average 24/8/7 on elite efficiency if he can just be a little more consistent with his jumper, ball handling, explosiveness, and craftiness with the basketball. It's a long summer but the Wizards have an excellent track record of developing young talent.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Davis has a better chance at stardom if he changes his name to Johnny Utah.

[doclinkin]

The purpose of this exercise is to project what "stardom" would look like from our existing core of youth, and ballpark a relative likelihood of getting there. With no obvious "tier 1" young talents (aka not a Wemby, SGA pre-breakout, Mobley, etc), and a draft with no obvious elite prospects, we're at the moment relying on a breakout from one of our existing talents. So the purpose of this exercise is to map out what that looks like. How do you envision, say a Bilal, or a Deni, or even a Jared Butler, getting to high quality starter or even all-star level? Bonus points for proposing a statline.

I'd start by saying we don't yet have that guy. If a star is a player who can impose his will on a game and score at high efficiency with high usage, we currently don't have any players on the roster that show that aptitude. Frankly we only have one player on the team that is willing to try, and he began the season with the historically worst statistical gap between usage and efficiency. All-stars? I don't see one on this roster. I think the best we can look for is a 'Most Improved Player'.

However, if what we are projecting is how good we think our current talent could be, given realistic development, I think it's a useful and interesting question. Daydreaming is a thing I do. I'm a storyteller, here's the science fiction version:

PG. Lets say Tyus is gone. Jordan Poole tapped as tank commander in the starting PG role. Somehow in his redemption story he rediscovers his confidence and the game he showed in his Championship run. That season he shot 55%/36%/92%. Likely not repeatable given that he was playing off the bench next to 2-3 HOF players. However his FT% indicates his focus. His 3pt% here is the worst since his rookie year, yet he's noted as the hardest working player in the gym. Pretend somehow the work pays off it translates into improved %'s across the board despite high usage.

We draft Castle next to him, who learns from the work habits and shooting routines passed down from Curry + Klay. Castle's 3pt shooting becomes a reliable weapon. Poole next to a big defensive guard means the team D overall improves, so hero ball is less necessary. With Tyus and Kuz gone, Poole embraces a leadership role. He's the only guy on the team with a ring, has seen how HOF players do it. Maturity happens, shot selection improves. He goes on a hot streak, with notable improvements in shooting%'s. Highlight theatrics plus counting numbers attract attention as a MIP candidate. Comparisons are made to Darius Garland's all-star year, Poole even receives some sympathy votes from people who dislike Draymond.

Still, with Castle showing some promise as a big playmaking PG, we trade Poole at the peak before the numbers fall off, netting us a decent haul in future picks. The record suffers somewhat while the rookie adjusts, but we can't allow his hot streak to mess with our lotto odds.

Butler proves a really solid defensive back-up, crowd favorite, good mentor for fellow NCAA champion Castle. Tough mug with a winners mindset, all heart no matter what the medical records say.

SG. Kispert works on his handle and lateral mobility all offseason. Hip flexibility, bowleggedness, kneebend, etc. Defense improves accordingly. At 6'7"ish at wing he's on the small side of small forwards. But at 2-guard that's a nice size. Say he extends his range, reliably hitting from deep. Playing well in an off ball role, but even showing some skill on dribble drive and passing chemistry with Deni et al. As a 4th year player with other veterans gone, at age 25 he too has grown into one of the old heads on the team. Anthony Gill has moved on, or graduated to a bench role, strength and conditioning coach. Kispert takes his example as the grown man in the room. He too asserts himself in a leadership role. Including improvement in a steadily advancing assist% now that he plays G nearly full-time. The starting SG role opens up his game, his offball role sinters well with Poole who needs spacing for his drive and dish game. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he also works well in the Cam Spencer role when Castle auditions at the PG spot. His efficiency numbers take a hit with increased volume, but his counting stats look good. Teams consistently inquire about his availability in proposed trade packages.

SF. Bilal adds muscle. Grooves his 3pt shot so he can hit it even when challenged. Settles into a 3&D role for now while he works on his TO issue. SImplified role says: defend and hit outside shots. Backdoor dunk when Deni blows by the big forwards and BCool's man helps. In this role he conserves his energy on offense, which frees him up to go on a tear defensively. After notable games where he laid-back calls out various all-star scorers (Siakam, etc) and then backs it up by snuffing them in game, he gets mentioned in the conversation of all-league defensive players. Doesn't make it this year. But sets it as a goal. He wants to be DPOY. Known as the silencer. Anything else he adds to his game is gravy, but that becomes his mission.

PF. Deni continues his steady improvement. Maturing as well. Here it is noted that his speed and face-up game makes him a mismatch for many forwards. He too has strength to add to his frame. Not increased weight, just grown-man strength. This shows up in his finishing percentages on the interior. Chemistry with Kispert increases his confidence in the drive and dish game, drawing attention and dishing to the outside. Likewise the improved strength and efficiency of Bilal means they share the court more often, building synergy on defense. As Bilal's strength improves, the switchability of these two players becomes an asset. All they need is an intimidating factor on the interior and the inattention of a guy like Poole is less of a problem. Still a problem, but these two show that once he is no longer a hole in the net they will be able to frustrate and stymie teams with big name scorers. Avdija still gets less respect than he deserves, but the stat nerds start countless reddit threads about his under-recognized +/- numbers on defense. Smart teams always ask about him in trade packages. The front office refuses. Meanwhile on offense Deni adds a bank shot that he can get off with either hand. Looks awkward from the left side, but goes in in decent percentages. This version of Deni should be in the conversation for most improved, but gets overlooked no matter what he does.

Improved versions of Vuk and Baldwin combat each other for the role of stretch four. Neither is all that good on defense, but Coach Keefe keeps reserve role minutes for whichever of the two gives the most energy on rebounding. Both prove surprisingly decent passers from the position. Allowing for some smallball sets where they play high post center roles.

C. We draft a center. Defensive big guy. Or dominant interior scorer. Or a guy with potential for both. Edey. Kel'El Ware. Ariel Hukporti. He gets good.

Which leads us to:

We can do this for prospective rookies as well, though that's not the focus of this exercise.

To me an even better question because there is a chance that a few players in this draft become award winners. Hell, PIF will tell you its a statistical certitude.

At PF above after the Vuk and Baldwin blurb I was going to say: Doesn't matter since we draft DaRon Holmes, who proves a revelation and takes all their minutes. But more later.

[nate33]

SG. Kispert works on his handle and lateral mobility all offseason. Hip flexibility, bowleggedness, kneebend, etc. Defense improves accordingly.

[payitforward]

It's a statistical certitude, doc.
We trade 2 & 26 for Portland's 7, 14, 34 & 40

Stephon Castle at 7.
Tidjane Salaun at 14.
Daron Holmes at 34.
KJ Simpson at 40.
Jonathan Mogbo at 51.
Enrique Freeman undrafted.

"And they're off...."