STRENGTHS: Buzelis is a fascinating athlete at 6-8 3/4 without shoes and an 8-9 1/2 standing reach. He can explode in space, especially off two feet, and is an above- the-rim finisher in transition and as a cutter. He is a fluid open-floor athlete. He loves to grab and go on the break; this was his bread-and-butter at lower levels. He finds open driving lanes to attack in space and displays some shiftiness while still moving forward. He has great body control and an effortless glide to his game.
The hope for Buzelis entering G League Ignite was that he’d show an ability to serve as a big wing shot creator who can shoot and handle. At lower levels, he loved to use hang dribbles to get defenders sleeping before making a move — usually a crossover into a pull-up jumper. I thought he used the change-of-pace dribble well to get some separation, particularly going backwards in half-court opportunities. He has a creative mind for how to use his body.
I thought Buzelis’ most effective way to generate offense this season was as an off-ball mover and cutter. He was a consistent threat as a backdoor cutter for Ignite. He has a great sense of timing on when his man turns his back or steps up to help on drives, often getting behind the defense to present his passer an option for a lob or dunk. He made 75 percent of his shots off cuts and finished among the top-15 wings in the G League in made shots off cuts per game. He also knows how to run off dribble handoffs and cuts to create an option for his big man. The Ignite used him as the middle man against zone coverages this season.
Buzelis was a good shooter as a senior at Sunrise Christian, making 43.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts that season. Sunrise played him off the ball regularly and allowed him to get into a flow coming off pindowns and other screening actions. He did a good job of spotting up around his guards and finding open spaces. He did not shoot well this past season, but Buzelis displayed touch at lower levels that exceeded his Ignite percentages. Though he made just 26.1 percent of his 3s this year, I think there is a chance he shoots well by the end of his rookie-scale contract.
Buzelis was a strong off-ball defender this season, making his presence known on the help side. He was a tremendous shot blocker rotating on the backline, averaging 1.9 blocks per game and posting strong per-minute rates. He has a good sense of when to sneak over and how to time his leap, and he covers ground quickly with long strides. On defense, he was an event creator in the G League, posting the highest combined block + steal rate of any prospect to come through the Ignite program. He has potential to be a disruptive low-man defender and chaos helper. There are concerns about his on-ball prowess, but he has a chance to become an impactful defender if deployed properly in the NBA.
WEAKNESSES: Buzelis’ lack of strength is a significant issue. He weighed just 197 pounds at the combine. He can’t anchor or carve out his own space on the court. He is moved too easily when bumped around the court. He looks to have a higher center of gravity, which creates issues as he’s trying to establish position and get to his spots. While he is a plus athlete for his size, he’s more of a glider than a quick-twitch exploder. There isn’t much suddenness to his athleticism, and he does not have a great first step. When combined with his lack of strength, Buzelis doesn’t play with much force. Worse, he’s not long for his height, posting a 6-10 wingspan at the combine. That could limit his potential to scale up roles, which may be necessary if he doesn’t work out on the wing. Buzelis’ lack of strength permeated his game on offense. Off the ball, he was too easily diverted by any bumps as he tried to get into his on-ball actions or pindown screens. Defenders with stronger chests and lower halves could stop him from driving to his spots if they beat him to them first. Buzelis can’t yet initiate contact and move players backward.
The rest of his offensive game is fascinating but unfinished. His shooting isn’t quite there yet: He made just 26.1 percent of his 3s last season and struggled in situations off the catch. He misses too far to the left or right more than you’d hope. His one-two step motion looks stiff; I think he’s better off learning to take these shots off the hop to generate more momentum. While his hang dribble is a positive, it must be tightened as he moves up a level. The pros in the G League did not bite as often on his looping crossovers and hang dribbles as high school players did. He doesn’t separate from defenders in half-court situations often unless he’s attacking an advantage that a teammate has already created.
While he can be a creative finisher when he gets downhill — particularly by changing hands while hanging in the air — he was not an effective one this year. He made just 56.9 percent of his shots at the rim overall, including just 49.4 percent of his layups in half-court settings. Those are low numbers for a player with Buzelis’ size and athleticism. He finished well in off-ball situations but struggled as an on-ball driver and finisher. If he got knocked off his line, which happened often, he lost a lot of his touch. He must get far more physical and stronger to be an effective wing driver, though it is certainly possible he looks better once he’s removed from the Ignite’s cramped driving lanes.
Buzelis has never been an effective passer. In high school, he struggled with tunnel vision as a driver who would try to score. In the G League, he didn’t open passing lanes for his teammates by forcing help regularly. Buzelis is not a selfish player, and he does not make poor passes that result in turnovers often. But based on the tape he’s put out to this point, he’s not someone who can regularly make high-level kickouts to his teammates — especially in the half-court. He had a negative assist- to-turnover rate in high school and with Ignite.
Defensively, Buzelis struggled to contain the ball. He was outleveraged by smaller guards on switches and got buried under the rim whenever bigger wings or forwards tried to post him up. If a guard put their shoulder into him on a drive, Buzelis would be driven too far backward to use his length. The good news is he clearly seemed to care on defense this season; he may just need to mature physically.
SUMMARY: Like a lot of the players above him, Buzelis’ success will come down to two swing areas. The first one is the frame, which has a long way to go before it fills out. I don’t think he'll end up playing many NBA minutes next season because of that. He has a lot of long-term upside to fill a much-needed player archetype if he fills out, but front offices are mixed on whether that will happen. Nobody doubts Buzelis’ work ethic, though; he’s a competitor who demonstrates a desire to be great. The second swing skill for Buzelis is his jumper. His shot isn’t broken, but he’s only had one distinctly positive shooting stretch (his season at Sunrise Christian). Is that an aberration, or is it a signal that he has room to grow? It’s difficult to tell with teenagers. I don’t see him regularly shooting off movement, but I think there’s a good chance he will learn to be a proficient spot-up 3-point shooter, especially with his work ethic. If he shoots well and his frame fills out, he has a chance of becoming a terrific pro. His defensive instincts off the ball are uncommon, and his work in the open floor shows his playmaking potential. But if his frame and shooting don’t come around, his floor is quite low. I ended up with him in my top tier and moved him around my rankings more than any other player. Still, I couldn’t place him outside of my top-seven because I just believe in his work ethic mixed with his tools.
