Projected Total Wins for the 2024-2025 Season

[baldur]

Boston Celtics 58.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 55.5
Denver Nuggets 52.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 52.5
New York Knicks 52.5
Philadelphia 76ers 52.5
Milwaukee Bucks 51.5
Dallas Mavericks 50.5
Orlando Magic 47.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5
Sacramento Kings 46.5
Phoenix Suns 46.5
Indiana Pacers 46.5
New Orleans Pelicans 46.5
Memphis Grizzlies 45.5
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5
Miami Heat 44.5
Golden State Warriors 43.5
Houston Rockets 42.5
Los Angeles Clippers 42.5
Atlanta Hawks 35.5
San Antonio Spurs 35.5
Toronto Raptors 30.5
Chicago Bulls 30.5
Utah Jazz 28.5
Charlotte Hornets 27.5
Detroit Pistons 22.5
Washington Wizards 22.5
Portland Trail Blazers 22.5
Brooklyn Nets 21.5

the odds for warriors, bulls and jazz are pending due to potential trades.. (edit: sorry the odds are here for these teams as well, I thought they havent been released yet)

what are your predictions?

[HayKee]

The Grizzlies total seems low. That team has been a RS wins machine when healthy.

[One_and_Done]

I'd say Vegas is smart enough to see the Spurs are going to be considerably better, though this might still be underrated them.

On the other hand I think their Kings line is way too high if they're starting Demar.

[Clav]

Interesting to me - I'm looking at ...

Utah 28.5. Doubtful, go under. trade pending though.
Spurs at 35.5. Could be higher
Memphis at 45.5... could be higher
Boston at 58.5. Honestly I could see them winning 60+ games this season.
Charlotte might be trending upwards, 27.5 seems low

[One_and_Done]

I want to hear what Toronto fans think, because if their team really only wins 31 games then it is a pretty big indictment on their players and management. Barnes has been billed as a huge star, and he has some solid players around him, so if they're still only a 31 win team then a major re-evaluation of their players is needed.

[whitehops]

two things that stand out to me...

1. the average wins is 41.6 so bettors' optimism slightly favours the over.
2. vegas has a pretty drastic gap in the "middle zone". it's pretty consistent all the way down until the rockets/clippers at 42.5, then there's a 7-win drop to the hawks/spurs at 35.5, then there's a 5-game drop to the bulls/raps at 30.5.

#2 isn't crazy because there were only 4 teams last season to fall in the 31-42 win range but it shows that there's expected to be a huge gap between playoff teams and not. in the east alone there were 7 teams within a 4-win record, there's just a crazy difference in competitive teams and not.

[giberish]

The Grizzlies total seems low. That team has been a RS wins machine when healthy.

They've had enough issues though that there's a significant amount of if with the team. If they're completely back then they're a 50 win team, but maybe they're only partly back, or perhaps the wheels fall off again.

I look at Denver's roster with 5 credible rotation players and only 1 credible rotation guard and think that Jokic will have to have an MVP season just to drag them to 46-50 wins. Once significant injury and even that's too high.

[Duffman100]

I want to hear what Toronto fans think, because if their team really only wins 31 games then it is a pretty big indictment on their players and management. Barnes has been billed as a huge star, and he has some solid players around him, so if they're still only a 31 win team then a major re-evaluation of their players is needed.

Barnes is still 22 and we have zero bench (again). Likely starting a 20 year old at SG.

It's a rebuild year to add more talent. Pretty simple actually.

You troll our forum enough, acting ignorant is an interesting take.

[One_and_Done]

I want to hear what Toronto fans think, because if their team really only wins 31 games then it is a pretty big indictment on their players and management. Barnes has been billed as a huge star, and he has some solid players around him, so if they're still only a 31 win team then a major re-evaluation of their players is needed.

Barnes is still 22 and we have zero bench (again). Likely starting a 20 year old at SG.

It's a rebuild year to add more talent. Pretty simple actually.

You troll our forum enough, acting ignorant is an interesting take.

It's not trolling to make reasonable criticisms of players and GMs. Barnes just got paid like a franchise player, and I keep hearing how good Quickley is (who also just got paid big). RJ is apparently good too, and then you've got solid guys like Poeltl and Bruce Brown. I don't get why that's not enough to be 500. in the East, which is a very weak conference at the bottom.

The bench shouldn't matter that much, but Olynyk is a decent bench guy, and I keep getting told Boucher is too.

[Myth]

What I see is Blazers need to trade Grant to get 20.5 or below.

[Ballerhogger]

Boston Celtics 58.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 55.5
Denver Nuggets 52.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 52.5
New York Knicks 52.5
Philadelphia 76ers 52.5
Milwaukee Bucks 51.5
Dallas Mavericks 50.5
Orlando Magic 47.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5
Sacramento Kings 46.5
Phoenix Suns 46.5
Indiana Pacers 46.5
New Orleans Pelicans 46.5
Memphis Grizzlies 45.5
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5
Miami Heat 44.5
Golden State Warriors 43.5
Houston Rockets 42.5
Los Angeles Clippers 42.5
Atlanta Hawks 35.5
San Antonio Spurs 35.5
Toronto Raptors 30.5
Chicago Bulls 30.5
Utah Jazz 28.5
Charlotte Hornets 27.5
Detroit Pistons 22.5
Washington Wizards 22.5
Portland Trail Blazers 22.5
Brooklyn Nets 21.5

the odds for warriors, bulls and jazz are pending due to potential trades.. (edit: sorry the odds are here for these teams as well, I thought they havent been released yet)

what are your predictions?

Warriors might not win 40 this year

[Schmooftie]

Boston Celtics 58.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 55.5
Denver Nuggets 52.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 52.5
New York Knicks 52.5
Philadelphia 76ers 52.5
Milwaukee Bucks 51.5
Dallas Mavericks 50.5
Orlando Magic 47.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5
Sacramento Kings 46.5
Phoenix Suns 46.5
Indiana Pacers 46.5
New Orleans Pelicans 46.5
Memphis Grizzlies 45.5
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5
Miami Heat 44.5
Golden State Warriors 43.5
Houston Rockets 42.5
Los Angeles Clippers 42.5
Atlanta Hawks 35.5
San Antonio Spurs 35.5
Toronto Raptors 30.5
Chicago Bulls 30.5
Utah Jazz 28.5
Charlotte Hornets 27.5
Detroit Pistons 22.5
Washington Wizards 22.5
Portland Trail Blazers 22.5
Brooklyn Nets 21.5

the odds for warriors, bulls and jazz are pending due to potential trades.. (edit: sorry the odds are here for these teams as well, I thought they havent been released yet)

what are your predictions?

One's that stand out to me.
Washington - can't see them getting to 22.5. Advija is a big loss and the East (bar a couple at the bottom) overall is better than last year.
Detroit 22.5 - new coach and extra depth. Can see them winning around 25-27
Clippers 42.5 - I would guess this would be their line is Kawhi stayed relatively healthy. If you are betting he won't be they may struggle to get to 30-35 wins.
Lakers 45.5 - Lebron and AD a year older and they were mostly heathy last year. Again this is a bet assuming both play 70+ games, if either or both of them get hurt for an extended stretch the Lakers will go way under.
Grizzlies 45.5 - I really think they will bounce back and win 50 games this year.
New York 52.5 - have great depth and coaching. I think they'll be in the 55-60 win range.
OKC 55.5 - another year older and have massive upgrades to their rotation in Carusso and Hartenstein. They should win 60+

[Chuck Everett]

So Vegas has the bottom eight teams being Toronto, Chicago, Utah, Charlotte, Detroit, Washington, Portland and Brooklyn. That seems fair, although that Portland number seems like an easy over. I think you can also pencil the LA Clippers, San Antonio and Atlanta as the other guaranteed lotto teams. I do not believe in Kawhi's health. They are missing the play-in.

I would smash the over on Memphis and Oklahoma City. Houston is tough. If they get off to a good start, they could win 50. If I bet on them, it would be a small one. That's a good line for Vegas. They should make a ton either way. Pelicans also look like a regression team unfortunately. Lastly, I like the over with Indiana and the under with Denver.

[Ayt]

I'd say Vegas is smart enough to see the Spurs are going to be considerably better, though this might still be underrated them.

On the other hand I think their Kings line is way too high if they're starting Demar.

Why not bet on it?

[Ayt]

So Vegas has the bottom eight teams being Toronto, Chicago, Utah, Charlotte, Detroit, Washington, Portland and Brooklyn. That seems fair, although that Portland number seems like an easy over. I think you can also pencil the LA Clippers, San Antonio and Atlanta as the other guaranteed lotto teams. I do not believe in Kawhi's health. They are missing the play-in.

I would smash the over on Memphis and Oklahoma City. Houston is tough. If they get off to a good start, they could win 50. If I bet on them, it would be a small one. That's a good line for Vegas. They should make a ton either way. Pelicans also look like a regression team unfortunately. Lastly, I like the over with Indiana and the under with Denver.

Do it. What are you waiting for?

[CP3nthusiast]

Under
SAC: Too many cooks. They need more perimeter defense and instead they added another guy who's not effective unless he has the
ball in his hands.

NOP: See above. If they don't get rid of Brandon Ingram, this team is gonna be a media spectacle next year. I count one, two, three, FOUR guys who are all about their numbers over team success. And at least one of them is gonna have to come off the bench, if not two. Good luck figuring out who that is, Willie Green. Oh and there's no center on the team. Feel like that's gonna hurt them a bit.

MEM: I think whatever juice they had in the past few years is gone. They were 6-3 with Ja on the floor but all 6 of those wins came against relatively unimpressive opponents. I actually liked their offseason: Edey will be a great backup center, GG Jackson is a sleeper for 6MOTY, Scottie Pippen Jr is looking like the next great undrafted player. I just don't think that'll be enough for 45 wins in the West.

LAC: I actually think this is about right. If you get 50-55 healthy games from Kawhi, you can lock in about 28-30 wins from that. The remaining 12-14 shouldn't be that hard to cobble together with James Harden and Co., but I'll take the under anyways because they just have awful luck.

Over
DET: I didn't much like their offseason. Tobias Harris is such a nothing player, Malik Beasley shot 41% from 3 last year and got a whopping $6m for it (what does that tell you about his other skills), Ron Holland was such an awful Troy Weaver-esque pick for this team (which can't bode well for their future) and to top it all off, I'm not sure any of their young guys are actually good. In spite of all that, I still think a halfway decent coach can scrape together at least 23 wins with this team and that's exactly what Bickerstaff is.

SAS: No team with Wembanyama on it is winning fewer than 40 games from hereon in unless they're trying to.

ATL: This one's tough because I could actually see them tanking this year. In fact, I think that's probably why they picked Risacher over Clingan. But I feel somewhat confident in a Trae Young-led team winning at least 36.

HOU: They showed flashes of it last year but this will be the year Houston officially arrives. Reed Sheppard will be awesome and is my pick for ROTY, Sengun is already an All-Star caliber player, Jabari Smith will make an All-Defensive team, Cam Whitmore will finish in the top 3 for 6MOTY, Dillon Brooks will continue to be a beloved player. It's all happening for them. They just have to figure out what to do with Jalen Green and Amen Thompson but they do have the goods for a consolidation trade.

ORL: They will win 50 games this year, I'm certain of it. Orlando is the OKC of the East, in that they have drafted extremely well and have a very clear vision of what they want their team to be. They might stand the best chance of slowing down Boston with their size and defense. Would've liked to see them sign Hartenstein but KCP is a great pickup nonetheless. Paolo will take another step up and make an All-NBA team, Franz will return to being an average 3pt shooter, Anthony Black looked much improved in summer league this year.

[Mavrelous]

The article is here

East:
BOS 58.5
NYK 53.5
PHI 52.5
MIL 50.5
CLE 47.5
ORL 47.5
IND 46.5
MIA 44.5
ATL 35.5
CHI 30.5
TOR 30.5
CHA 29.5
DET 24.5
WAS 22.5
BK 19.5

West:
OKC 55.5
DEN 52.5
MIN 52.5
DAL 50.5
MEM 47.5
PHO 46.5
SAC 46.5
NOP 45.5
LAL 44.5
GSW 42.5
HOU 42.5
LAC 40.5
SAS 35.5
UTA 28.5
POR 21.5

My over bets: Pistons, Lakers and Grizzlies
My under bets: OKC and DEN

Questions marks:
Ingram in Pelicans, if he's traded for a good center, Pelicans should go over easily.
UTA/TOR: I have no clue, they aren't PO team, but they can win high 30s, depends whether they tank, which they may decide or decide to start building winning culture...

[One_and_Done]

Too high on Sac, and maybe a little too conservative on the Spurs.

[zimpy27]

Spurs over

[FrodoBaggins]

Memphis is probably in the right spot. But I'm not going to be surprised if they end up top 3.