How good is the case for KG over Magic/Bird All-Time?

[Matt15]

How good is the case to rank KG over Magic/Bird all-time?

[Colbinii]

It's good.

[D.Brasco]

It's good.

Can you expand on that? I'm a proponent of factoring longevity in career rankings but the difference in championships and MVPs between Magic/Bird and KG is massive.

[Colbinii]

It's good.

Can you expand on that? I'm a proponent of factoring longevity in career rankings but the difference in championships and MVPs between Magic/Bird and KG is massive.

Peak and Prime level of play are the deciding factors for me. Late career longevity adds a bit but that's more of a cherry on top type thing for me.

[jalengreen]

This board (narrowly, in the case of Magic) voted Garnett over Magic and Bird in 2023. That thread is probably a good place to start.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2310981

[Whopper_Sr]

If you have Duncan above them, KG should be too.

[Hair Jordan]

Magic was arguably the best QB ever. He put up a 42/15/7 in game 6 of the 1980 Finals as a rookie to lead the Lakers to the title with Kareem out injured back in LA. He played in 9 Finals in 12 years. He made the Finals in ‘91 without Kareem. Bird led his Celts to the biggest single season turnaround in NBA history as a rookie (a year before Parish and McHale arrived) and the ECF. He won a title the following year, his second season. Both guys were basketball savants who came in ready to win from day 1. Garnett couldn’t get out of the first round for his first 7 seasons - SEVEN CONSECUTIVE FIRST ROUND EXITS!!! He’s 13-13 in playoff series (.500) and his cumulative playoff record is 70-73 (.489). His name doesn’t belong anywhere near Magic or Birds. Bird won 3 consecutive MVP’s with Magic in the league and Magic won 3 MVP’s in four years with Jordan in the league. Garnett’s lone MVP trophy was a career achievement award, kinda like Karl Malone in ‘97 or Kobe in 2008. He’s EASILY the most overrated player on RealGM. Most importantly though, he can’t even read or pronounce the word “equivalent.”

[Owly]

It's good.

Can you expand on that? I'm a proponent of factoring longevity in career rankings but the difference in championships and MVPs between Magic/Bird and KG is massive.

Obviously it will depend on what ones criteria is.

If one focuses on narrative/historical significance then KG becomes tough to argue.
Team circumstances mean he didn't get MVP consideration in line with the quality of player many believe he was. Titles obviously is very much team dependent - this can very easily be demonstrated by listing a team of "no title" over full career players versus one of "won in multiple spots/situations".

But purely how good one is ... it will depend on your tools. Playoffs being a smaller sample with uneven competition allows for a wider range of positions. As before criteria can vary. But it's not hard to find things saying KG is very good.

For instance on the box-side WS and VORP both metrics that use some team performance measures as inputs have Garnett as the RS leader among the names in question. One can argue where the baseline should be, quibble at the margins about metrics across eras (though less so in the full box era). Garnett has lower averages (in the rate versions) but partially that's due to a raw longevity advantage and looking at a similar minutes total to their careers (e.g. 1998-2009) he's comparable (Magic has a bit of a WS/48 over the other two) . Fwiw, though this is included in the above, he (marginally) peaks highest in both WS/48 and BPM.

So boxside ... with measures already punishing him for team performance ... he looks roughly equivalent in prime with additional longevity. But what doesn't the box capture ... defense ... and might that be Garnett's greatest advantage?

Overall the long term RAPMs, otoh, from memory (mainly Googlesites) perceive Garnett as in the top tier of that generation with Duncan and above Nowitzki and Bryant. More crudely a glance at his yearly on-off is impressive. Broadly speaking his impact side stuff, which will do a better job of catching D ... looks very good indeed, to my limited perception.

Mileage may vary, playoff interpretations may vary, what you're trying to measure may vary ... we only have crude impact stuff for non-76ers 80s guys so Garnett showing very strong doesn't necessarily mean a "win" versus an uncertain window of what others might be. As others said, see previous projects for where and why people rate him as they do. But on the quantitative stuff ... he's really, really good.

[tsherkin]

It's hard to see for me personally, but there's an argument to be made based on RAPM, anyway. Very hard to tell given the differences in their quality of supporting roster and all that. Definitely no argument if you heavily weigh rings or individual recognition, though, given the single MVP and solo ring in Garnett's trophy box. But again, criteria vary rather heavily from one person to the next, and he does have a DPOY and a bunch of All-D selections as a counterpoint.

[Cavsfansince84]

I think the only thing that holds back KG is the question of him leading a team to a title as the clear building block even if he's not the team's leading scorer(which doesn't really matter to me). I personally and I think quite a few others do question his intangibles and leadership in the Minn years. Which is somewhat connected to all the 1st rd exits as well. With Bird and Magic the results speak for themselves. With KG there's a degree of gray area imo which can't really be explained away with rapm or with the Boston years.

[Blame Rasho]

The lack of MVPs and post season success makes it at least to me impossible to make a case much less a good case for that notion. You are judged on success, and vs all time players, it plays a major factor.

[One_and_Done]

I think the case exists, though moreso with Bird due to his weak longevity compared to KG.

[Warspite]

Only on RealGM.

In a gym: No case
In an all-time NBA Draft: no case
On a scoreboard: No case
Resume: No case
On tape: No case
Playing 1on1: No case
On a spreadsheet made up by people who never made a FT: He has a valid case.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

How good is the case to rank KG over Magic/Bird all-time?

Celtics were my home team. I only watched Boston Bruins in 1978, but in 1979, the year before Bird arrived Cedric Maxwell was entertaining enough to get me to watch the bad Celtics.

I don’t see any significant reason to put KG above Bird and Magic all time.
If we counted only defense then KG would be above Bird and Magic.

I consider the case for ranking KG above Bird to be a bad case.
On a team with Parish and McHale which therefore does not need a defensive center I would rank bird above Tim Duncan as the power forward for a team that already has Parish and McHale.

Yes Bird was a power forward despite McHale also being a power forward. McHale was forced to guard small forwards. Tim Duncan was primarily a center. KG was primarily a power forward.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Only on RealGM.

In a gym: No case
In an all-time NBA Draft: no case
On a scoreboard: No case
Resume: No case
On tape: No case
Playing 1on1: No case
On a spreadsheet made up by people who never made a FT: He has a valid case.

You got it right.

I only played occasional playground basketball.
I never even tried out for my high school team.
Now I am old. I was a 50% free-throw shooter but my circumstances I’m not sure if being a 50% free-throw shooter was good or bad.

[iggymcfrack]

Excellent case. Incredibly longevity, best defensive player and 2nd best player of the last 25 years overall by analytics. Actually has better peak box score numbers than Bird at peak and nearly identical numbers to Magic. Honestly I think he was clearly the better player. I don’t even have it that close.

[iggymcfrack]

Only on RealGM.

In a gym: No case
In an all-time NBA Draft: no case
On a scoreboard: No case
Resume: No case
On tape: No case
Playing 1on1: No case
On a spreadsheet made up by people who never made a FT: He has a valid case.

“Only nerds with spreadsheets care about defense.”

-Casual fans


Edit: You actually think prime Magic would beat KG 1-on-1? And you think you know ball, LOL. I would literally bet my house against this proposition.

[FuShengTHEGreat]

0 to me. Probably the most overrated player that made the Hall of Fame. Although to his credit he deserves to be there.

KG doesnt even have one signature standout individual moment in his entire playoff career as far as I'm concerned.

[JimmyFromNz]

How good is the case to rank KG over Magic/Bird all-time?

Celtics were my home team. I only watched Boston Bruins in 1978, but in 1979, the year before Bird arrived Cedric Maxwell was entertaining enough to get me to watch the bad Celtics.

I don’t see any significant reason to put KG above Bird and Magic all time.
If we counted only defense then KG would be above Bird and Magic.

I consider the case for ranking KG above Bird to be a bad case.
On a team with Parish and McHale which therefore does not need a defensive center I would rank bird above Tim Duncan as the power forward for a team that already has Parish and McHale.

Yes Bird was a power forward despite McHale also being a power forward. McHale was forced to guard small forwards. Tim Duncan was primarily a center. KG was primarily a power forward.

Agree, I often find it an 'out of body experience' trying to bring KG down a notch (on this board) as a Celtics fan.

Even more uncomfortable when it comes to comparing him with Lakers greats!

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Only on RealGM.

In a gym: No case
In an all-time NBA Draft: no case
On a scoreboard: No case
Resume: No case
On tape: No case
Playing 1on1: No case
On a spreadsheet made up by people who never made a FT: He has a valid case.

“Only nerds with spreadsheets care about defense.”

-Casual fans


Edit: You actually think prime Magic would beat KG 1-on-1? And you think you know ball, LOL. I would literally bet my house against this proposition.

Do not bet your house. You would probably lose your house.