Whats up with Tatum's Shot?

Post #1 » by **Spin Move** » Mon Sep 9, 2024 7:20 pm

Tatum's shot was off in both the playoffs and Olympics, he shot 42.7% from the field overall and 28.3% from three. Compare this to the regular season where he shot 47% overall and 37% from three. In they Olympics he shot 38% overall and did not make a 3 (very small sample size). What is going on with him, is he playing through a broken finger or something. Any insights into why his shooting has fallen off so much recently, the olympics were a small sample size but the playoffs were 19 games. Arguably it goes back slightly farther then the playoffs in April his shooting line (only 4 games) was FG%43 3% 32 a decent drop off from the rest of the season. Anyone has any idea whats going on?

ConstableGeneva · Post #2 » by **ConstableGeneva** » Mon Sep 9, 2024 7:34 pm

My current opinion of him is he's not that great of a shooter. Erratic or streaky, however you want to view him. He's not a KD or Bird or a Curry type shooter. Even they have shooting slumps though. And he has several other impactful contributions both on offense and defense that consistent dead-eye shooting from him would make him one of the best ever. So I personally would temper my expectation from now on when it comes to his shooting.

For sure he (and the team) can make some adjustment with shot type and shot selection (maybe more catch and shoot than the off-the-dribble stuff?) but he may be just who he is as a jump shooter at this point.

Would love for him to improve his midrange game and floater range (no idea what his career/last season stats are). I liked that he drove more in the postseason more than I hate that he temporarily lost his shooting touch.

Post #3 » by **165bows** » Mon Sep 9, 2024 8:09 pm

He's basically been league average from three over the past three years, with some added context of taking in general tougher shots, while also being a front court guy where players don't tend to shoot as well either. He's been 44-45% on the 3-10 range for the last two years, which is actually really strong considering how much attention he gets.

So I tend to agree with Constable, he's a very good shooter not an elite one currently, albeit doing it under 8 or 9 out of 10 defensive pressure - which prob means a ton.

threrf23 · Post #4 » by **threrf23** » Mon Sep 9, 2024 8:12 pm

He struggled in the '22 finals and it was revealed after that his wrist had been bothering him. He struggled shooting in the '23 playoffs and again his wrist had supposedly been bothering him. I'm not saying that his wrist is still an issue, but I am saying that I am curious to that effect.

Smart2Nesmith43 · Post #5 » by **Smart2Nesmith43** » Mon Sep 9, 2024 10:49 pm

People are really underestimating how Tatum's shot diet is dragging down his percentages. If I told you that someone shot:
44% on wide open threes
38.5% on open threes (on the third highest volume in the league)
33% on tightly covered threes (on the highest volume in the league)
I think people would consider that dude to be an elite (especially taking volume into account) or borderline elite shooter. Those are Jayson Tatum's splits for last season by the way.

Zooming out, Jayson Tatum when taking threes after zero dribble:
2023-2024 42.9%
2022-2023 41.3%
2021-2022 37.4%
2020-2021 44.0%
2019-2020 40.1%
2018-2019 40.0%
2017-2018 48.0%

We have an enormous sample size that shows that Tatum kills on easy shots. What drags down his percentages is that the Celtics offense is designed to leverage Tatum's scoring gravity to get everybody else easy shots while he gets stuck with the hard stuff. On the diet of shots he gets, nobody except maybe Durant and Curry would be really efficient. The Celtics have been #2 and #1 in offense the last two seasons so it's hard to argue with the overall results.