The accuracy of NBA drafting

[mdenny]

I feel like myself and others have attempted to make a specific point over and over on this board about the accuracy and expected results of top 5 picks in the NBA draft so I want to make a thread here to actually dig into the analysis via the 'redraft' exercise.

The most accurate draft in NBA history is probably 2003. This particular set of top 5 picks is the BEST evidence for those the pro-tank assertion that the value of top 5 pick is far greater than most realize. It's perhaps the most ACCURATE top 5 picks in NBA history:

1 Lebron
2 Darko Milicic
3 Carmelo Anthony
4 Chris Bosh
5 Dwayne Wade

4 out of these 5 would STILL be top 5 in a redraft with the exception of Darko (probably replaced by David West or Boris Diaw?)

But 2003 is an absolute anomaly in the history of NBA drafts.

We can certainly look at other years but for the sake of brevity....let's look at 2010 to 2014. It's a 5 year span and enough time has elapsed for us to properly assess the outcomes. There could obviously be some debate about redrafts but there will undoubtedly be a broad consensus on which top 5 picks DO NOT survive the redraft in the top 5. Note: I did not cherry-pick this 5 year span to prove my point.


2010 draft:

1 John Wall
2 Evan Turner
3 Derrick Favors
4 Wesley Johnson
5 Demarcus Cousins

2010 Redraft possibilities:

Paul George
Gordon Haywood
Eric Bledsoe
Lance Stephenson

Prognosis: John Wall still top 5. It's debateable that Cousins was also top 5 but I'd say no. 1 outta 5.


2011 draft:

1 Kryie
2 Derrick Williams
3 Enes Freedom
4 Tristan Thompson
5 Jonas Valunciunas

2011 redraft possibilities:

Klay Thompson
Kemba Walker
Kawhi Leonard
Tobias Harris
Jimmy Butler
Bojan Bogdanovic

Prognosis: Only Kyrie survives redraft. So 1 out of 5


2012 draft:

1 AD
2 Kidd-Gilchrist
3 Beal
4 Dian Waiters
5 Tomas Robinson

2012 redraft possibilities:

Damian Lillard
Harrison Barnes
Draymond Green
Khris Middleton

Prognosis: AD survives the top 5 redraft. Does Beal? Probably 5th overall. So 2 outta 5


2013 draft:

1 Anthony Bennet
2 Victor Oladipo
3 Otto Porter jr
4 Cody Zeller
5 Alex Len

2013 redraft possibilities:

CJ Mccollum
Giannis
Rudy Gobert
Caldwell-Pope
Steven Adams

Prognosis: Not a single top 5 pick survives the redraft. 0 out of 5


2014 draft:

1 Andrew Wiggens
2 Jabari Parker
3 Joel Embiid
4 Aaron Gordon
5 Dante Exum

2014 redraft possibilites:

Marcus Smart
Julius Randle
Zach lavine
Gary Harris
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Nicola Jokic
Clint Capela
Jusuf Nurkic

Prognosis: Embiid survives the top 5 redraft. Noone else does. 1 out of 5




Everyone is free to expand the sample set. But from these 5 years.....a top 5 pick ends up being a top 5 player from his draft only 20% of the time. I have looked over all the years....and that approximate figure seems to generally hold true.

So QED, all this hype about 'top 5 picks' being 'essential to talent accumulation' is essentially bunk. There is no steep falloff in quality after the first top 5 picks in the nba draft historically. The steep falloff is in the initial hype that the fanbase propagates for the first year or two of the top 5 pick's career.

Given the history....It's just foolishness to be overly upset and melodramatic about 'falling from 4 to 7' or whatever in the draft lottery. Good drafting is FAR more important than draft order.

And it's worth reminding ourselves....there was a time when people were saying "if we could only get Derrick Favors or Alex Len or Otto Porter Jr or Thomas robinson or Enes Freedom......then we would have our TRUE NUMBER ONE to pair with Scotty Barnes" lol.

[bonjovi0308]

I feel like myself and others have attempted to make a specific point over and over on this board about the accuracy and expected results of top 5 picks in the NBA draft so I want to make a thread here to actually dig into the analysis via the 'redraft' exercise.

The most accurate draft in NBA history is probably 2003. This particular set of top 5 picks is the BEST evidence for those the pro-tank assertion that the value of top 5 pick is far greater than most realize. It's perhaps the most ACCURATE top 5 picks in NBA history:

1 Lebron
2 Darko Milicic
3 Carmelo Anthony
4 Chris Bosh
5 Dwayne Wade

4 out of these 5 would STILL be top 5 in a redraft with the exception of Darko (probably replaced by David West or Boris Diaw?)

But 2003 is an absolute anomaly in the history of NBA drafts.

We can certainly look at other years but for the sake of brevity....let's look at 2010 to 2014. It's a 5 year span and enough time has elapsed for us to properly assess the outcomes. There could obviously be some debate about redrafts but there will undoubtedly be a broad consensus on which top 5 picks DO NOT survive the redraft in the top 5. Note: I did not cherry-pick this 5 year span to prove my point.


2010 draft:

1 John Wall
2 Evan Turner
3 Derrick Favors
4 Wesley Johnson
5 Demarcus Cousins

2010 Redraft possibilities:

Paul George
Gordon Haywood
Eric Bledsoe
Lance Stephenson

Prognosis: John Wall still top 5. It's debateable that Cousins was also top 5 but I'd say no. 1 outta 5.


2011 draft:

1 Kryie
2 Derrick Williams
3 Enes Freedom
4 Tristan Thompson
5 Jonas Valunciunas

2011 redraft possibilities:

Klay Thompson
Kemba Walker
Kawhi Leonard
Tobias Harris
Jimmy Butler
Bojan Bogdanovic

Prognosis: Only Kyrie survives redraft. So 1 out of 5


2012 draft:

1 AD
2 Kidd-Gilchrist
3 Beal
4 Dian Waiters
5 Tomas Robinson

2012 redraft possibilities:

Damian Lillard
Harrison Barnes
Draymond Green
Khris Middleton

Prognosis: AD survives the top 5 redraft. Does Beal? Probably 5th overall. So 2 outta 5


2013 draft:

1 Anthony Bennet
2 Victor Oladipo
3 Otto Porter jr
4 Cody Zeller
5 Alex Len

2013 redraft possibilities:

CJ Mccollum
Giannis
Rudy Gobert
Caldwell-Pope
Steven Adams

Prognosis: Not a single top 5 pick survives the redraft. 0 out of 5


2014 draft:

1 Andrew Wiggens
2 Jabari Parker
3 Joel Embiid
4 Aaron Gordon
5 Dante Exum

2014 redraft possibilites:

Marcus Smart
Julius Randle
Zach lavine
Gary Harris
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Nicola Jokic
Clint Capela
Jusuf Nurkic

Prognosis: Embiid survives the top 5 redraft. Noone else does. 1 out of 5




Everyone is free to expand the sample set. But from these 5 years.....a top 5 pick ends up being a top 5 player from his draft only 20% of the time. I have looked over all the years....and that approximate figure seems to generally hold true.

So QED, all this hype about 'top 5 picks' being 'essential to talent accumulation' is essentially bunk. There is no steep falloff in quality after the first top 5 picks in the nba draft historically. The steep falloff is in the initial hype that the fanbase propagates for the first year or two of the top 5 pick's career.

Given the history....It's just foolishness to be overly upset and melodramatic about 'falling from 4 to 7' or whatever in the draft lottery. Good drafting is FAR more important than draft order.

And it's worth reminding ourselves....there was a time when people were saying "if we could only get Derrick Favors or Alex Len or Otto Porter Jr or Thomas robinson or Enes Freedom......then we would have our TRUE NUMBER ONE to pair with Scotty Barnes" lol.

Garbage logic

[mdenny]

[/quote]

Garbage logic[/quote]

Like I said....a top 5 pick ends up being a top 5 player from his draft class approximately 20% of the time.

Everyone who loves the hype machine of top nba prospects loves them until they're in the league for 3 or 4 years. But they never stick around for the actual results because for them, it's on to the new hype and the new 'can't miss' prospects.

Noone remembers the cries to 'tank for Cody Zeller!"

If you come in LAST place....(ie this year's wizards) you have a 50% chance of picking 5th.

In this 5 year span that means one of: Cousins, JV, Exum, Len and Thomas robinson. Now imagine obsessing and posting about this possibility for an entire year....plus hoping to limit the success of players your team currently owns to do so!

the 'garbage logic' is the scratch-n-win mentality of pro-tankers.

[wegotthabeet]

Garbage logic[/quote]

Like I said....a top 5 pick ends up being a top 5 player from his draft class approximately 20% of the time.

Everyone who loves the hype machine of top nba prospects loves them until they're in the league for 3 or 4 years. But they never stick around for the actual results because for them, it's on to the new hype and the new 'can't miss' prospects.[/quote]

It’s probably closer to 40 or 50% chance of landing a top five player from any draft with a top five pick. If you stretch it out to top 15 picks you’d find yourself with a greater than 80% chance of landing one of the top five players in that particular draft. Landing anything beyond a rotation player after pick 15 is mostly luck and not something any team can bank on.

[mdenny]

Garbage logic

Like I said....a top 5 pick ends up being a top 5 player from his draft class approximately 20% of the time.

Everyone who loves the hype machine of top nba prospects loves them until they're in the league for 3 or 4 years. But they never stick around for the actual results because for them, it's on to the new hype and the new 'can't miss' prospects.[/quote]

It’s probably closer to 40 or 50% chance of landing a top five player from any draft with a top five pick. If you stretch it out to top 15 picks you’d find yourself with a greater than 80% chance of landing one of the top five players in that particular draft. Landing anything beyond a rotation player after pick 15 is mostly luck and not something any team can bank on.[/quote]


__________________________


It is NOT a 40 to 50% chance of getting a top 5 player from a draft class with a top 5 pick. You are making that up in your head. It does not match the reality of draft history.

But feel free to cite any evidence supporting that claim.

As to your point about the top 15 picks....I haven't looked at the history in that context...but if your assertion is true (80% sounds right tho) a team doesn't need to tank to get into that draft order range. That's what ppl call "treadmill" range.

I would guess you are correct that 80% of the top 5 players from any draft class are selected in the 1 to 15 range. But that's not an assertion that supports a tanking strategy.

[wegotthabeet]

4/5 of the top 5 in any particular draft class are drafted in the top 15 dating back to the first lottery in 1985.

OP cherry picked four draft classes and is using that as confirmation bias to prove their thesis. Look at the draft classes from 2017-2020 and tell us that two of the top five players from any of those drafts weren’t top five players from their class.

2017: Tatum & Fox
2018: Luka & JJJ (Trae)
2019: Morant & Garland (Zion)
2020: Ant & Ball

The higher a team picks, the higher probability of landing a star player. Doesn’t mean they will land one with a top five pick, just that it’s more probable.

[mdenny]

4/5 of the top 5 in any particular draft class are drafted in the top 15 dating back to the first lottery in 1985.

OP cherry picked four draft classes and is using that as confirmation bias to prove their thesis. Look at the draft classes from 2017-2020 and tell us that two of the top five players from any of those drafts weren’t top five players from their class.

2017: Tatum & Fox
2018: Luka & JJJ (Trae)
2019: Morant & Garland (Zion)
2020: Ant & Ball

The higher a team picks, the higher probability of landing a star player. Doesn’t mean they will land one with a top five pick, just that it’s more probable.

Wow.

So if I cherry-picked.....please provide ONE example between 2000 and 2015 wherein 4 of the top 5 picks ended up being in the top 5 of their draft class. (Aside from the one exception I stated in 2003)


So there's 16 drafts between 2000 and 2015. I have acknowledged the one exception in 2003. You have 15 other years to choose from. Not a single one of them will hold true. In fact...I challenge you to find a draft where there is THREE and you have 15 drafts to choose from.

[Shakril]

I feel like myself and others have attempted to make a specific point over and over on this board about the accuracy and expected results of top 5 picks in the NBA draft so I want to make a thread here to actually dig into the analysis via the 'redraft' exercise.

The most accurate draft in NBA history is probably 2003. This particular set of top 5 picks is the BEST evidence for those the pro-tank assertion that the value of top 5 pick is far greater than most realize. It's perhaps the most ACCURATE top 5 picks in NBA history:

1 Lebron
2 Darko Milicic
3 Carmelo Anthony
4 Chris Bosh
5 Dwayne Wade

4 out of these 5 would STILL be top 5 in a redraft with the exception of Darko (probably replaced by David West or Boris Diaw?)

But 2003 is an absolute anomaly in the history of NBA drafts.

We can certainly look at other years but for the sake of brevity....let's look at 2010 to 2014. It's a 5 year span and enough time has elapsed for us to properly assess the outcomes. There could obviously be some debate about redrafts but there will undoubtedly be a broad consensus on which top 5 picks DO NOT survive the redraft in the top 5. Note: I did not cherry-pick this 5 year span to prove my point.


2010 draft:

1 John Wall
2 Evan Turner
3 Derrick Favors
4 Wesley Johnson
5 Demarcus Cousins

2010 Redraft possibilities:

Paul George
Gordon Haywood
Eric Bledsoe
Lance Stephenson

Prognosis: John Wall still top 5. It's debateable that Cousins was also top 5 but I'd say no. 1 outta 5.


2011 draft:

1 Kryie
2 Derrick Williams
3 Enes Freedom
4 Tristan Thompson
5 Jonas Valunciunas

2011 redraft possibilities:

Klay Thompson
Kemba Walker
Kawhi Leonard
Tobias Harris
Jimmy Butler
Bojan Bogdanovic

Prognosis: Only Kyrie survives redraft. So 1 out of 5


2012 draft:

1 AD
2 Kidd-Gilchrist
3 Beal
4 Dian Waiters
5 Tomas Robinson

2012 redraft possibilities:

Damian Lillard
Harrison Barnes
Draymond Green
Khris Middleton

Prognosis: AD survives the top 5 redraft. Does Beal? Probably 5th overall. So 2 outta 5


2013 draft:

1 Anthony Bennet
2 Victor Oladipo
3 Otto Porter jr
4 Cody Zeller
5 Alex Len

2013 redraft possibilities:

CJ Mccollum
Giannis
Rudy Gobert
Caldwell-Pope
Steven Adams

Prognosis: Not a single top 5 pick survives the redraft. 0 out of 5


2014 draft:

1 Andrew Wiggens
2 Jabari Parker
3 Joel Embiid
4 Aaron Gordon
5 Dante Exum

2014 redraft possibilites:

Marcus Smart
Julius Randle
Zach lavine
Gary Harris
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Nicola Jokic
Clint Capela
Jusuf Nurkic

Prognosis: Embiid survives the top 5 redraft. Noone else does. 1 out of 5




Everyone is free to expand the sample set. But from these 5 years.....a top 5 pick ends up being a top 5 player from his draft only 20% of the time. I have looked over all the years....and that approximate figure seems to generally hold true.

So QED, all this hype about 'top 5 picks' being 'essential to talent accumulation' is essentially bunk. There is no steep falloff in quality after the first top 5 picks in the nba draft historically. The steep falloff is in the initial hype that the fanbase propagates for the first year or two of the top 5 pick's career.

Given the history....It's just foolishness to be overly upset and melodramatic about 'falling from 4 to 7' or whatever in the draft lottery. Good drafting is FAR more important than draft order.

And it's worth reminding ourselves....there was a time when people were saying "if we could only get Derrick Favors or Alex Len or Otto Porter Jr or Thomas robinson or Enes Freedom......then we would have our TRUE NUMBER ONE to pair with Scotty Barnes" lol.

Finally someone did their research!!!! Thats what i am talking about. What i also want to ad, that many of those survive, win their title with a different team, they were drafted to.

[Shakril]

4/5 of the top 5 in any particular draft class are drafted in the top 15 dating back to the first lottery in 1985.

OP cherry picked four draft classes and is using that as confirmation bias to prove their thesis. Look at the draft classes from 2017-2020 and tell us that two of the top five players from any of those drafts weren’t top five players from their class.

2017: Tatum & Fox
2018: Luka & JJJ (Trae)
2019: Morant & Garland (Zion)
2020: Ant & Ball

The higher a team picks, the higher probability of landing a star player. Doesn’t mean they will land one with a top five pick, just that it’s more probable.

You are cherry picking yourself and ignore the context in which his Comment was made. Essentially he is saying, you dont need to ruin your franchise by tanking, cause getting a star in the top 5 is neither guaranteed nor impossible later on.

[mdenny]

I can see where this is gonna go so let's expand the sample size. Let's go 5 years back. From 2005 to 2009. An additional 5 years.


2005 draft:

1 Andrew bogut
2 Marvin Williams
3 Deron Williams
4 Chris Paul
5 Raymond Felton

2005 redraft possiblities:

Channing Frye
Antoine Wright
Monta Ellis
Lou Williams
Danny Granger

Prognosis: Chris Paul and D Will both survive the redraft. 2 outta 5.


2006 draft:

1 Bargnani
2 Aldridge
3 Adam Morrison
4 Tyrus Thomas
5 Sheldon Williams

2006 redraft possibilities:

Brandon Roy
Rudy Gay
Rajon Rondo
Kyle Lowry
Paul Millsap

Prognosis: Larmarcus survives the redraft. Noone else even comes close. 1 out of 5


2007 draft:

1 Greg Oden
2 KD
3 Al Horford
4 Mike Conley
5 Jeff Green

2007 redraft possibilities:

Joakim Noah
Corey Brewer
Marc Gasol

prognosis: KD and Horford survive the redraft. 2 out of 5.


2008 draft:

1 derrick rose
2 michael beasley
3 OJ Mayo
4 Westbrook
5 Kevin Love

2008 redraft possiblities:

eric gordon
brook lopez
serge ibaka
goran dragic
Roy Hibbert

Prognosis: Derrick Rose and Westbrook survive the redraft. Kevin Love is questionable. But i say 2 outta 5


2009 draft:

1 Blake Griffin
2 Haseem Thabeet
3 James Harden
4 Tyreke Evans
5 Ricky Rubio

2009 redraft possibilities:

Steph Curry
Demar Derozan
Brandon Jennings
Jrue Holiday
Danny Green
Gerald Henderson

Prognosis: James Harden survives the redraft. Blake Griffin had decent career but nope. 1 outta 5.

[Raps in 4]

The problem with your argument is that you assume every FO is equally bad at scouting. That is not the case. Scouting isn't luck. It's a skill and there is a huge range in skill between the best and worst FO. Fortunately for us, we have one of the best scouting FOs. FOs that are good at scouting are far more likely to hit on their picks than those that aren't, something you completely ignore in your post.

[ATLTimekeeper]

The problem with your argument is that you assume every FO is equally bad at scouting. That is not the case. There is a huge range. Fortunately for us, we have one of the best scouting FOs.

When I look into these things it really looks like quality of FO or scouting matters very little in terms of special players. It becomes even more random luck when you think of it that way. Where FO scouting can matter is in overall quantity of hits over time.

fwiw, this race to the bottom doesn't really seem to create results. Since LeBron a last place finishing team has made the Finals 3 times. Orlando with Dwight. Miami (drafted Beasley, landed LeBron), and Golden State (drafted Wiseman). If the principle is to finish the worst possible place in order to secure the best possible picks, there seems to be a lot of negative pressure keeping teams from being anything other than a treadmill.

[Clutch0z24]

Anyone trying to argue having a worst pick in a draft is the better option should be banned...Its just a dumb take that should not be argued with....Scouting + good drafting front offices play majority of the factor....There are alot of dumb decision makers who make bad picks and there are good decision makers who make good picks And you have some lucky GMs who have a player fall to them that shouldn't ....That does not mean having a worst selection in the draft is a good thing....

For example the higher Masai picks in a draft the outcome of him getting the player he personally thinks is going to be the best in the draft class that is a way more higher chance than hoping 8-9 + teams let that player fall to him...

[Psubs]

Like I said....a top 5 pick ends up being a top 5 player from his draft class approximately 20% of the time.

Everyone who loves the hype machine of top nba prospects loves them until they're in the league for 3 or 4 years. But they never stick around for the actual results because for them, it's on to the new hype and the new 'can't miss' prospects.

Noone remembers the cries to 'tank for Cody Zeller!"

If you come in LAST place....(ie this year's wizards) you have a 50% chance of picking 5th.

In this 5 year span that means one of: Cousins, JV, Exum, Len and Thomas robinson. Now imagine obsessing and posting about this possibility for an entire year....plus hoping to limit the success of players your team currently owns to do so!

the 'garbage logic' is the scratch-n-win mentality of pro-tankers.

Unless they are Yao, Hakeem, Shaq, Embiid, AD, KAT, don't reach for Centers. You can get similar producing ones in the 20's.

[MEDIC]

I have always found there is a lot more pressure drafting in the top 5. I am not sure why, but teams constantly get their pick wrong. Maybe it's partly because the GM has bottomed out the team. They are drafting with a bare cupboard in many cases & there is much more at stake if you get it wrong. It's kind of like interviews......many people fail when they desperately need the job, but where there is no.pressure because they already have a good job.....people are.more relaxed & are more logical & present themselves in a more confident manner.

Teams drafting after the top 5 probably have some young talent already or have some injuries that occurred. They have a vision of where the team is headed. They can see the forest and the trees.

OP is right. There is someting that makes the top 5 difficult for many GM's. We see it more often than not.

Having said that....the Raptors have done decently well in the top 5. No major busts. Even Bargnani wasn't a major bust in that draft class.

[OakleyDokely]

The problem with many organizations is that they face pressure to draft the consensus guy at their spot, especially when it comes to very high picks. All these mocks tend to be incredible similar by the end and they hype players at certain spots.

I think it was Bobby Marks on the Lowe podcast who said that picking a consensus guy is safe for an executive, but if he goes off board with a high pick and that pick fails, his job is in jeopardy. So execs are more likely to pick the safe guy, not the best guy.

We're lucky in a sense that Masai doesn't seem to be a guy scared to go a little off board. Many other GMs would've taken Suggs over Barnes in the same position.

[mdenny]

I have always found there is a lot more pressure drafting in the top 5. I am not sure why, but teams constantly get their pick wrong. Maybe it's partly because the GM has bottomed out the team. They are drafting with a bare cupboard in many cases & there is much more at stake if you get it wrong. It's kind of like interviews......many people fail when they desperately need the job, but where there is no.pressure because they already have a good job.....people are.more relaxed & are more logical & present themselves in a more confident manner.

Teams drafting after the top 5 probably have some young talent already or have some injuries that occurred. They have a vision of where the team is headed. They can see the forest and the trees.

OP is right. There is someting that makes the top 5 difficult for many GM's. We see it more often than not.

Having said that....the Raptors have done decently well in the top 5. No major busts. Even Bargnani wasn't a major bust in that draft class.

So I have an explanation for that.

The margins between the top 5 prospects and the 10 to 15 prospects are very, very small.

But because there is an entire media industry based on prospect hype that helps generate revenue for sports media outlets and college basketball....these margins are portrayed to the public to be MUCH larger than they are.

In other words....it's alot sexier (and easier) to heavily promote and create interest in 5 prospects than it is for 20 prospects.

That whole machination makes all the coverage and hype trend towards a focus on "top 5" or "top 3".

Cooper Flagg has not been anything close to dominant in college ball so far. So then one asks: "why is he a household name?". The answer is that they need household names for the whole marketing thing to generate the clicks and interest and revenue.

Thus....the top 5 prospects get over-hyped....and everyone outside the top 5 gets relatively under-hyped.

From a marketing point of view....you can't generate interest in 20 to 25 players.

[OakleyDokely]

Also, because the game is so global, the depth of talent is a lot greater and it's a lot harder to evaluate prospects. You need to compare NCAA guys to European guys to Australian guys to Gleague guys to Academy guys. There's a lot more room for error compared to a time when most guys were just drafted out of the NCAA.

I do think it's becoming less rare to draft a gem outside the top 5 because of the factors above.

[mdenny]

Also, because the game is so global, the depth of talent is a lot greater and it's a lot harder to evaluate prospects. You need to compare NCAA guys to European guys to Australian guys to Gleague guys to Academy guys. There's a lot more room for error compared to a time when most guys were just drafted out of the NCAA.

I do think it's becoming less rare to draft a gem outside the top 5 because of the factors above.

That's a really good point. The global aspect of the game has made the top 5 picks much more unpredictable than they were in the 90s and 80s. So many euro picks that seem like high reward/high failure picks. Bargnani vs Luka.


I'm trying to think of euro players taken in the top 5 that succeeded and I'm at a loss except for Luka?

Bargs was a dud. Darko was a dud. Rubio was a dud. Who am I missing? Is there another top 5 euro pick aside from Luka that thrived?

[TheGeneral99]

Yep, there is a lot of luck and variability.

Obviously the chances are higher in the top 5, but historically speaking only 1 or 2 players out of the top 5 end up being impactful or all-star caliber players.

You can still find gems in the mid-1st round which obviously your chances start to diminish.