https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=115885141#p115885141
Now we’re back to Olajuwon.
A month ago we looked at Dream and others in a losing finals with a specific focus towards rim-protection.
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=115401403#p115401403
Now we’re going to look at how he fared in a Conference Finals loss:
To get the ball rolling on more comprehensively assessing what Hakeem offered in 97, I’m going to add more inputs as we zero in on Hakeem and only Hakeem during his first 40 defensive possessions of play.
Here are the countables that have been tracked across the previous two threads:
Spoiler:
Here’s what we’re adding:
EPP - Effective primary protections - This is when a PP is deemed effective
IPP - Ineffective Primary Protections - This is when a PP is deemed ineffective
PPDs - Primary Perimeter defendings - This credits a player as the primary or co-primary perimeter defender for a possession
EPPD - Effective Primary Perimeter defendings - When a PPD is deemed effective
IPPD - Ineffective Primary Perimeter defendings - When a PPD is deemed ineffective
There is a great deal more grey area here than with the creation stuff I think. Vetting and perhaps some discussion on what should be counted or not counted is welcomed. If you just want to see the numbers you can control+F for “Tally and Analysis”.
Let’s begin.
Possession 1 - 2:40
Hakeem is quite obviously the primary paint-protector deterring a drive from Stockton and then gets backdoored for a layup with Horneack baiting him out and Ostertag converting a lob. He’s effective and ineffective in this play but I guess you can argue the ineffectiveness is more significant (Hakeem - 1 PP, 1 IPP)
Possession 2 - 3:49
Hakeem flies to blanket Stockton but Ostertag punishes.
(Hakeem - 2 PP, 2 IPP)
Possession 3 - 4:20
Hakeem walls off Stockton and covers Ostertag, spending all of the possession near the paint and half of it in it. Utah scores but it’s not Hakeem’s mark.
(Hakeem - 3 PP, 1 EPP)
Possession 4 - 4:49
Hakeem records his first IA (1) with Stockton deciding to drive on the side with 3 defenders opposite Hakeem. Barkley is the primary..
Possession 5 - 5:18
Hakeem is closest to the basket for most of the possession and twice is the last line of resistance being posted vs Malone despite picking him up on the perimeter. He also spends the most time guarding the guy with the ball which he ends up batting away for a turnover. Pretty clear cut.
(Hakeem - 4 PP, 2 EPP, 1 PPD, 1 EPPD)
Possession 6 - 5:50
Barkley the primary here.
Possession 7 - 6:16
See Hakeem as a co-primary paint guy given he comes up to stop Malone when he blows by Barkley (weakside-ish but also on an island) and then does the most to prevents Ostertag from rebounding
(Hakeem - 5 PP, 3 EPP)
Possession 8 - 7:40
Hakeem knocks the ball from Stockton weakside, watches Ostertag for a bit, and then walls off a Stockton drive forcing a turnover
(Hakeem - 6 PP, 4 EPP)
Possession 9 - 8:40
Hakeem picks up another IA(2) with Stockton passing to Malone on the more crowded side of the court. Barkley primary.
Possession 10 - 9:40
Barkley primary.
Possession 11 - 11:30
Barkley primary.
Possession 12 - 12:00
Barkley primary. Perimeter and Paint
Possession 13 - 12:40
Hakeem can be co-primary with Barkley here. Late to rotate vs Stockton but fights and beats Ostertag for the rebound. Won’t call him effective or ineffective.
(Hakeem - 7 PP)
Possession 14 - 13:19
Edge case here. Moves towards who Barkley is denying to force a kick out and is on an island vs Ostertag for a potential rebound. Doesn’t end up fighting for a board so won’t give him the PP but there’s room for interpretation there. Barkley primary, paint and perimeter. Hakeem does pick up an IA (3) with Eisley throwing it to the side with 3 defenders.
Possession 15 - 14:00
Hakeem spends the most time in the paint and is on an island vs Ostertag for a potential rebound. Barkley doesn’t spend much time being posted on so
(Hakeem - 8 PP)
Possession 16 - 17:00
Co-Primary for the paint spending the most time in the paint, sort of intercepting a drive, and knocking a loose ball to a teammate preventing a potential drive.
(Hakeem - 9 PP, 5 EPP)
(Hakeem goes to bathroom)
(Hakem back at 22:06)
Possession 17 - 22:22
Hakeem’s more on the perimeter this possession
Possession 18 - 22:50
Hakeem spends the most time by the paint. It seems it’s default to have him float at the edge so he is positioned to either help at the basket as the last line of defense or venture out to the perimeter as the first line.
(Hakeem - 10 PP)
Possession 19 - 23:40
Hakeem spends most of the possession watching Ostertag in the paint and then intercepts a Stockton drive, tipping his pass for a turnover.
(Hakeem - 11 PP, 6 EPP)
Possession 20 - 24:02
Rockets turnover with Hakeem up the court. Waves his hands to try and stop a long lob but the ball finds its recipient and Houston loses the 2 v 1.
Possession 21 - 25:25
Hakeem spends the most time at the paint and is the last line of defense under the basket as Stockton drives and is fouled. On the inbound he stuffs Anderson twice at the rim, doing so the first time by himself. Hakeem also picks up an IA (4) with Stockton again deciding to dribble and towards and pass to the side with 3 defenders as opposed to the side with Hakeem
(Hakeem -12 PP, 7 EPP)
Possession 22 - 26:50
Hakeem ventures slightly out of the paint to guard Stockton, getting Ostertag to screen him, and then comes back to the basket to beat out Ostertag for a rebound off Stockton’s miss (with a little help) and draws a foul.
(Hakeem - 13 PP, 8 EPP, 2 PPD, 2 EPPD)
Possession 23 - 27:40
Hakeem gets back near his basket mid-way through the possession.
Possession 24 - 28:57
Hakeem picks up Stockton and fouls him. On the inbound Hakeem starts on Stockton, denying him a window to find Ostertag for a PNR. He then tussles with Ostertag for position all the way to the basket where he’s on an island. Carr travels.
(Hakeem - 14 PP, 9 EPP, 3 PPD, 1 IPPD)
Possession 25 - 30:05
Hakeem stuffs Carr strong-side by himself.
(Hakeem - 15 PP, 10 EPP)
Possession 26 - 30:28
Hakeem walls off Stockton on the baseline. Stockton lobs it to Anderson who Hakeem rushes to face strongside; he arrives late and is bested at the basket.
(Hakeem 16 PP, 3 IPP, 4 PPD, 3 EPPD)
Possession 27 - 31:31
Hakeem spends the most time in the paint and near the basket and comes out to intercept Stockton but fouls on the shot contest.
(Hakeem 17 PP, 4 IPP)
Possession 28 - 32:36
Hakeem picks up someone on the backcourt and Barkley gets the PP as he forces a turnover.
Possession 29 - 33:40
Hakeem can get a co-primary credit here spending the most time in the paint and eventually helping Barkley on a post-up. Frankly, I feel like I’ve been a bit generous with Barkley here. He’s free to post-up outside or at the edge of the paint in part because Hakeem lies in wait if he gets beat and the Rockets are leaving the area under the basket empty because they trust Hakeem to get there if need be.
(Hakeem - 18 PP)
Possession 30 - 34:04
Hakeem spends the most time in the paint and knocks off Ostertag allowing Barkley to pick an easy rebound.
(Hakeem - 19 PP, 11 EPP)
Possession 31 - 35:18
Hakeem waits near the basket and goes around Stockton to challenge Ostertag at the basket. Challenge is unsuccessful
(Hakeem - 20 PP, 5 IPP)
Possession 32 - 35:50
Hakeem can split usage credit with Barkley here spending about as much time in the paint marking Ostertag.
(Hakeem - 21 PP)
Possession 33 - 36:20
Hakeem offers help to Barkley vs Malone and battles Ostertag for position for a potential rebound. Moot as Malone’s jumper goes in.
Possession 34 - New York - 37:40
Hakeem starts at the free-throw line and then gets around a Stockton screen to Intercept Ostertag near the basket. Ostertag is able to make a tough hook shot but Hakeem defends well.
(Hakeem - 22 PP, 12 EPP)
Possession 35 - 38:28
Barkley walls off Malone low post and Malone’s shot rolls out. Hakeem flies in to denying Ostertag the rebound and potential putback. Co-primaries for me.
(Hakeem 23 PP, 13 EPP)
Possession 36 - 39:06
Hakeem lingers at the edge of the paint as Barkley fights Malone under the basket. Stockton bounces his bounce pass off a Houston foot leading to an inbound. On the Inbound Hakeem becomes the last line, fails to intercept a overhead to Ostertag and watches helplessly as Ostertag dunks. Hakeem and Barkley can split the PP though Hakeem alone is deemed ineffective.
(Hakeem 24 PP, 6 IPP)
Possession 37 - 40:04
Hakeem watches Ostertag at the free-throw line and then bumps him under the basket preventing him from affecting the rebound battle.
(Hakeem 25 PP, 14 EPP)
Possession 38 - New York - 41:35
Hakeem starts the possession under the basket, goes out to meet Stockton at the ft line, follows his drive, and is late to contest the ensuing layup. Stockton scores.
(Hakeem 26 PP, 7 IPP)
Possession 39 - 42:16
Hakeem is barely involved.
Possession 40 - 43:40
Hakeem spends the most time in the paint and a chunk of the possession fighting Ostertag for position under the basket.
(Hakeem 27 PP)
Tally and Analysis
Paint-Protection - Hakeem
Spoiler:
Perimeter Defense - Hakeem
Spoiler:
During Hakeem’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 27 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 13 and ineffective in 7. Hakeem also was given 4 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Additionally Hakeem was given 4 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Hakeem averaged, 0.675 PPs, 0.325 EPPs, 0.175 IPPs, 0.1 PPDs, 0.075 EPPDs, 0.025 IPPDs, and 0.1 IAs.
For a comparative frame, over 22 Possessions in the final game of the 94 ECSF vs Chicago, Ewing had 13 PPs and 3 IAs giving him, per possession, .59 PPs and 1.4 IAs. Perimeter usage and Efficacy, along with Paint efficacy were not tracked.
As this is the first tracking I’ve done for most of this, the comparative utility of what is being counted is currently limited. That said, in comparison to the other four leaders in tracked rim-load (94 Pippen, 88 Oakley, 94 Ewing, 86 Mchale), Hakeem stands out in various ways.
Firstly, Hakeem seemed to see the least help from teammates while dealing with a tower in Ostertag at and around the basket and being tested by Stockton on the perimeter a fair bit. The Rockets spent many possessions just leaving the area under the basket empty, presumably on the assumption that if something went wrong Hakeem could move quickly enough to cover. While I didn’t count secondary usage, I imagine such counting would see Hakeem be credited in nearly all the possessions he wasn’t the primary. In general I thought he was more effective per-possession than Ewing or Pippen or Oakley, and similarly effective as Mchale on a higher rate of usage (I’ll need to count how many possessions from the 86 tracking Mchale played but his final tally in PPs was 16 and he certainly didn’t miss 11 of the possessions tracked). Obviously PIppen was the more active perimeter player though I’d give Hakeem the edge over the rest(maybe want to double check Mchale though).
I was, maybe unsurprisingly, significantly more impressed with 86 Olajuwon. His usage was lower thanks to Sampson but when Sampson went out he was used about as much in the paint, and I’d guess was used significantly more on the perimeter while being significantly more effective in both areas.
I didn’t do team-wide tracking, but I’d ballpark Hakeem as the Rocket’s third most active perimeter defender here along with being an obvious runaway lead in terms of paint-protection. I’d also say he handled both pretty well which, considering he was largely operating by himself, while dealing with a very annoying assignment, is pretty impressive. If representative, I’d probably project this iteration of Hakeem as a solidly top 3 defender though not necessarily the best(Might do Mutombo next).
Taking a broader look, I think my focus on basket proximity when assessing load may disadvantage great ground-coverers like Olajuwon. Players like Hakeem(and maybe even guys like Pippen) can still be operating as the last-line of defense without being at the basket. Not sure how to address this.
On a positive note, this tracking was significantly less time-intensive than the 5 player tracking done over 80-possessions (40 for each team) last time and the assist-trackings I did before. More detail for less players might be a worthwhile trade-off.
Will end this by copy and pasting the caveats noted from previous tracking:
Spoiler:
Undecided on what to tackle next. Assist watching Isiah/Stockton, more rim-load tracking for Chicago, and/or trying this more complex defensive system for other guys all seem tempting.