based on Butler to Griz rumor (MIA/MEM/NOP/DET)

nykballa2k4 · Post #1 » by **nykballa2k4** » Mon Jan 6, 2025 2:13 am

On the inter-webs there is a rumor that Butler is going to Memphis. The source is that gambling odds moved from +3000 to +300 (tied for top odds).

So since I don't see that thread yet (maybe it got buried?)

Heat trade Butler, Robinson, Highsmith, Rozier, Richardson
get JRE (not Joe Rogan), Kennard, McCollum, Ingram, Smart.

Rationale: Butler wants out, Ingram is a similar contract problem but at least is younger, so extending him during his prime actually isn't problematic. Adding useful role players and guys who could have some good fit. CJ moves to 6th man, Smart probably starts alongside Herro. JRE is a lunch pail type who will fit perfectly into a role in Miami.

Griz trade Kennard, Smart, Konchar, Clarke, 3 FRP (Mem 2025, 2027, 2029 all unprotected), 2 SRP (recipients choice).
get Butler. Personally, I like Clarke a lot but everything else here has a replace from within option. Smart is obviously upgraded into Butler. Kennards replacement is Cam Spencer on the two way (not as good obviously, but can continue to develop). Since the outgoing talent is on the weaker side, I can imagine more picks being included, but I started here. Memphis loves grit and thats Jimmy.

Pelicans trade JRE, McCollum, Ingram
get Konchar, Sasser, Robinson, Rozier, Clarke, 3 Memphis FRP (25, 27,29 all no protection).
Rationale getting three picks, two of which have high-variance potential is not a bad haul. Sasser and Clarke are both useful young players. Rozier replaces some of what McCollum brings and costs less. Konchar is fine, but could be flipped to a team needing to fill out at the deadline.

Pistons trade Sasser
get Richardson, Highsmith, 2 SRP
rationale: I like Sasser, possibly because he likes to burn the Knicks. He isn't a big part of what they are doing and they have adequate guard play at the moment. Adding another vet shooter in Richardson and a wing defender in Highsmith just gives them more options and the 2 SRP are compensation for the 5M cap (effetively 2.5 million in real dollars).

Post #2 » by **BBallFreak** » Mon Jan 6, 2025 2:27 am

That's a lot of picks to give for Butler so I see it falling apart right there

psman2 · Post #3 » by **psman2** » Mon Jan 6, 2025 2:32 am

No one is giving up 3 UP picks for Butler given all the circumstances here. I think if there is a deal it would be something like 2025 UP (likely in the 20's) and a 2027 top 10 protected.

Ingram isn't likely fetching more than one 1st either. IF Miami wants to use the 2nd Memphis 1st to turn Rozier into CJ then I guess that is fine, but I wouldn't do it.

nykballa2k4 · Post #4 » by **nykballa2k4** » Mon Jan 6, 2025 2:36 am

psman2 wrote:No one is giving up 3 UP picks for Butler given all the circumstances here. I think if there is a deal it would be something like 2025 UP (likely in the 20's) and a 2027 top 10 protected.

Ingram isn't likely fetching more than one 1st either.

Taking both of your feedback into account here -- do you think 2 FRP gets it done? Would this be more of a "cut Miami out of it" situation or are there some good bones in here?

psman2 · Post #5 » by **psman2** » Mon Jan 6, 2025 2:40 am

nykballa2k4 wrote:
psman2 wrote:No one is giving up 3 UP picks for Butler given all the circumstances here. I think if there is a deal it would be something like 2025 UP (likely in the 20's) and a 2027 top 10 protected.

Ingram isn't likely fetching more than one 1st either.

Taking both of your feedback into account here -- do you think 2 FRP gets it done? Would this be more of a "cut Miami out of it" situation or are there some good bones in here?

I don't think Memphis has any interest in Ingram but Miami likely sees him as a piece that would be willing to gamble on here. If Memphis brings in a 4th max then he needs to really compliment our core 3. Ingram league average scoring is just not a big need, his usage will be slashed here and he doesn't bring a lot else to the table. Butler fits better but age, personality and contract demands are going to push the offers down. We have to pay a price where if it is only a half season rental we can live with that result and be able to pivot using other assets.

NYG · Post #6 » by **NYG** » Mon Jan 6, 2025 2:47 am

Clarke, Smart, Kennard, '25 unprotected and conditional '27 for Butler

psman2 · Post #7 » by **psman2** » Mon Jan 6, 2025 2:49 am

NYG wrote:Clarke, Smart, Kennard, '25 unprotected and conditional '27 for Butler

Konchar has to be there too, we are not going to into the tax this year.

nykballa2k4 · Post #8 » by **nykballa2k4** » Mon Jan 6, 2025 2:20 pm

psman2 wrote:
NYG wrote:Clarke, Smart, Kennard, '25 unprotected and conditional '27 for Butler

Konchar has to be there too, we are not going to into the tax this year.

If we are looking at it in the Kawhi Leonard (1 year rental, see what happens) type of paradigm, I feel like with the outgoing pieces being so meager, that at least one real unprotected pick is warranted. I mean, the idea is all-in and Memphis could possible flip Butler next summer (unless another team magically has cap space to sign him).

Post #9 » by **oldncreaky** » Mon Jan 6, 2025 3:49 pm

I know it's a minor part of the deal, but DET using up it's cap space for 2 SRPs is just not worth it for DET

If you are looking to offload a $8-10M in return for 1 or 2 SRPs then CHO, TOR and WAS are better trade partners

Kalamazoo317 · Post #10 » by **Kalamazoo317** » Mon Jan 6, 2025 5:28 pm

I don't think Detroit's going to trade Sasser without getting a ball handler back. With Ivey out, Sasser is pretty much our only primary ball handler outside of Cade. Also don't think the value is really there for us in this one.