Jimmy Butler, it's time to face the cold hard truth

[BBallFreak]

So, Jimmy has made it known that he wants one team and one team only - Phoenix. And they want him, too. Badly, according to reports. Only problem is, Phoenix has to offload Beal (because they're not trading Booker or Durant) to make it happen. We all know that Beal has an NTC and a 15% kicker. Even without that, he's a hard sell for other teams. So Phoenix is very unlikely. And Miami needs to communicate that to his agent if they haven't already.

Jimmy could just stay in Miami this year and opt out, but the only team with enough cap space to sign him to the kind of deal he wants - Brooklyn - is said to have no interest in him (and that's putting it kindly).

Jimmy may have to opt in and hope that Phoenix can find a way to offload Beal in the offseason and force his way there, then. I don't see that being any easier at that point. The same NTC/15% kicker are going to exist.

That leaves Jimmy with his best option, which is widening his trade circle and agreeing to opt in with his new team, or resigning himself to playing joylessly in Miami for the next year and a half. It's my belief that he will widen the circle, but who takes the chance on him and who is he willing to accept?

Memphis and Milwaukee both looked poised to make a run at him, but he told them not to. Do they reapproach? If not them, who? What does he fetch on the open market given his malcontentedness? Does he play nice in Miami?

What are your thoughts?

[jayjaysee]

It’s not a good situation when the one team that supposedly wants you can’t realistically trade for you.. Feels like worst case scenario for Butler and Miami.

I don’t even know if I think Phoenix is really that set on butler or if it’s the same as the Nurk noise, where Phoenix is realizing the group they have just doesn’t work.

[Texas Chuck]

I think there is more information we still don't know for sure. Like might there be a team willing to pay him his money, but not willing to meet the Heat's current demands for return? If yes, the Heat coming down might resolve this.

Does Beal say screw this. I'm getting my money no matter what and I don't want to be where they clearly do not want me. Is he less of an obstacle than we think?

Does a team governor unwilling to commit to a new max deal for him today get antsy and say lets go for it before the deadline?

Does Lebron call him and say make one run with me and I'm retiring after the 25-26 season so the team can give you the new deal and you can end your career with AD?

Does Kyrie call him and say hey I came to Dallas without a new deal, but its great here and they took care of my money?

Note: Not saying any of that is likely. I don't think any of it particularly is. But I do think all of it can't be ruled out.

I think we have to be careful not to take all the reporting at face value. Remember anything we learn is because someone with a clear agenda wants us to learn it. And we definitely have the Heat, Butler, and very likely another team(s) all trying to shape the narrative in the most favorable way.

[Devilanche]

Probably more posturing and noise. A deal if any will be at the last week of trade deadline when teams get more desperate and cost drop further . Maybe by then butler list has expanded and/or his extension amount become more manageable .

[wegotthabeet]

So, Jimmy has made it known that he wants one team and one team only - Phoenix. And they want him, too. Badly, according to reports. Only problem is, Phoenix has to offload Beal (because they're not trading Booker or Durant) to make it happen. We all know that Beal has an NTC and a 15% kicker. Even without that, he's a hard sell for other teams. So Phoenix is very unlikely. And Miami needs to communicate that to his agent if they haven't already.

Jimmy could just stay in Miami this year and opt out, but the only team with enough cap space to sign him to the kind of deal he wants - Brooklyn - is said to have no interest in him (and that's putting it kindly).

Jimmy may have to opt in and hope that Phoenix can find a way to offload Beal in the offseason and force his way there, then. I don't see that being any easier at that point. The same NTC/15% kicker are going to exist.

That leaves Jimmy with his best option, which is widening his trade circle and agreeing to opt in with his new team, or resigning himself to playing joylessly in Miami for the next year and a half. It's my belief that he will widen the circle, but who takes the chance on him and who is he willing to accept?

Memphis and Milwaukee both looked poised to make a run at him, but he told them not to. Do they reapproach? If not them, who? What does he fetch on the open market given his malcontentedness? Does he play nice in Miami?

What are your thoughts?

Isn't there a path here by not trading Beal, but by trading Booker instead then using some of those assets to acquire Jimmy?

I don't mean trading Booker directly to Miami because that's pretty much impossible, but rather to a 3rd team is what I mean. Seems like the only way in my opinion. I don't think Miami has the picks to close the gap between Jimmy's value and Booker's.

[Texas Chuck]

Why though would Phoenix trade Booker to get Butler?

[cjmcallist]

I don't know why PHX would trade Booker for Butler, but if they do I'm here for it with OKC. I would love to get Booker on this Thunder team.

[BBallFreak]

I don't know why PHX would trade Booker for Butler, but if they do I'm here for it with OKC. I would love to get Booker on this Thunder team.

They shouldn't but the way I see it, it's their only path to him. And if they view it as keeping Durant as well as getting Jimmy, they might. So, maybe some of your contracts come to us, as well as our future owed pick, Booker goes to you, and Butler and draft capital from you goes to Phoenix.

[jayjaysee]

I dont think Phoenix considers anything like it, but I wouldn’t call it Booker for Butler. I’d call it Utah’s 2025 first (11-30 protected) and 4-5 future firsts for Booker and Collins/Clarkson/first for Butler.. Or whatever you call fair value from Utah, OKC, Charlotte, Houston, etc.

Beal/Butler/KD go on a 2-3 year run and Phoenix hopes they draft well.

[wegotthabeet]

Why though would Phoenix trade Booker to get Butler?

My logic is that Booker can head to Houston and Phoenix can get Butler + all their picks back and an additional pick or two. Miami can get expiring contracts and maybe one or two players with potential. The Suns can try to remain competitive, but regain their picks in the invent they want to pivot to a rebuild. It just provides them with more flexibility down the road without dropping off too much now.

You're putting me on the spot, but something like:

To Houston:
Booker
Larsson

To Pheonix:
Butler
2025 Suns 1st
2027 Suns 1st
2029 Suns 1st
2027 Nets 1st

To Pheonix:
Steven Adams
Reed Sheppard
Jabari Smith Jr.
Jock Landale

Miami waives Richardson or Burks.

This is just off the top of my head, so maybe the value is off a little, but the framework is there potentially to make a deal work for all three teams in my opinion.

[BBallFreak]

I dont think Phoenix considers anything like it, but I wouldn’t call it Booker for Butler. I’d call it Utah’s 2025 first (11-30 protected) and 4-5 future firsts for Booker and Collins/Clarkson/first for Butler.. Or whatever you call fair value from Utah, OKC, Charlotte, Houston, etc.

Beal/Butler/KD go on a 2-3 year run and Phoenix hopes they draft well.

No Clarkson. Sexton. But yeah, I'd be fine with that, too.

[Wigginstime]

So, Jimmy has made it known that he wants one team and one team only - Phoenix.
What are your thoughts?

Jimmy initially had multiple teams on his list. His agent discovered there was only one team who was willing to give him the massive contract extension he desires - PHX.

Jimmy has the greatest power to change this situation. If for example he goes from wanting $160M/3 Years to $110M/3 years, i could see the list of teams growing again.

[Mavrelous]

The cold hard truth is that Butler deal is much easier in the offseason, many suitors are hardcapped and asset starved, and can be much more flexible in the offseason.
I don't see Butler opting out, as it limits him to 1st Apron teams, but opt in and trade is doable with teams below 2nd Apron which is a much wider market and there is much less constraint on roster size.
I don't think Jimmy's problem is who is willing to pay him, but who can logistically pull it off.

[jayjaysee]

I dont think Phoenix considers anything like it, but I wouldn’t call it Booker for Butler. I’d call it Utah’s 2025 first (11-30 protected) and 4-5 future firsts for Booker and Collins/Clarkson/first for Butler.. Or whatever you call fair value from Utah, OKC, Charlotte, Houston, etc.

Beal/Butler/KD go on a 2-3 year run and Phoenix hopes they draft well.

No Clarkson. Sexton. But yeah, I'd be fine with that, too.

Clarkson is a two year MLE deal. Isn’t that the requirement by Miami?

But I doubt that swap would kill the deal for Utah honestly. Just goal posts.

[gswhoops]

Suns are not trading Booker for Butler, even if it nets them a pile of assets on top. Just not happening.

You’ve solved the “how” but un-solved the “why”

[Hook_Em]

I’m trying to remember a situation like this where nobody involved has any leverage.

[BBallFreak]

I dont think Phoenix considers anything like it, but I wouldn’t call it Booker for Butler. I’d call it Utah’s 2025 first (11-30 protected) and 4-5 future firsts for Booker and Collins/Clarkson/first for Butler.. Or whatever you call fair value from Utah, OKC, Charlotte, Houston, etc.

Beal/Butler/KD go on a 2-3 year run and Phoenix hopes they draft well.

No Clarkson. Sexton. But yeah, I'd be fine with that, too.

Clarkson is a two year MLE deal. Isn’t that the requirement by Miami?

But I doubt that swap would kill the deal for Utah honestly. Just goal posts.

The size of the contract isn't the issue, the length would be, but it ends at the right time so we'd want Sexton and Collins.

[BBallFreak]

So, Jimmy has made it known that he wants one team and one team only - Phoenix.
What are your thoughts?

Jimmy initially had multiple teams on his list. His agent discovered there was only one team who was willing to give him the massive contract extension he desires - PHX.

Jimmy has the greatest power to change this situation. If for example he goes from wanting $160M/3 Years to $110M/3 years, i could see the list of teams growing again.

Agreed, but that only works if Jimmy revises his list. No one is going to trade for him of he doesn't want to be there. He's a depressed asset because of the way he's trying to leave Miami and the way he left Minnesota and Chicago.

[jayjaysee]

No Clarkson. Sexton. But yeah, I'd be fine with that, too.

Clarkson is a two year MLE deal. Isn’t that the requirement by Miami?

But I doubt that swap would kill the deal for Utah honestly. Just goal posts.

The size of the contract isn't the issue, the length would be, but it ends at the right time so we'd want Sexton and Collins.

Clarkson ends at the same time. That was my question. I get wanting Sexton, he’s the better, younger player..

Collins fits. Clarkson provides tax relief and expires at right time. And a first. Like I said, Phoenix should not consider this in real life. And Utah probably caves and lets it be Sexton sure..

But why is Clarkson a deal breaker? If the target is useful player, no contracts through 2026, and a first.

That’s why I said goal posts…

[BBallFreak]

I’m trying to remember a situation like this where nobody involved has any leverage.

Lol! I agree. It's apparent that Jimmy has no leverage because no one is going to sign him for the max in free agency so it's not a situation where he can say, "Trade me now or get nothing."

Phoenix has no leverage because it's known that Durant wants to resign with Jimmy (meaning it's not just about getting Jimmy but about ensuring that they keep KD), they have no assets, and can't get rid of Beal.

Miami has no leverage because he's not an acceptable presence in the locker room and refuses to play hard, he's a distraction, and he has that option for next year.

It's an absolute one off situation imo...