According to a survey of MLB executives, Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson is widely considered the most likely player to eventually eclipse Juan Soto\'s record 15-year, $765 million contract signed with the New York Mets this past winter.
The assessment came as part of an exercise where MLB insiders identified players at various contract tiers who could command significant deals in the future. Henderson consistently received unanimous mention as the top candidate to potentially break Soto\'s financial record. Other players at the right age and level of superstardom such as Bobby Witt Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Corbin Carroll and Jackson Chourio are already on long-term deals.
Henderson, who debuted at age 21, will reach free agency after the 2028 season at just 27 years old. His positional value at shortstop gives him a significant advantage over Soto\'s right field position in the eyes of evaluators.
$400M-$600M Candidates
In his two full MLB seasons, Henderson has already accumulated more than 15 WAR, including a nine-win campaign last year that exceeded any single-season performance in Soto\'s career. Despite these impressive credentials, executives believe Henderson would still need several more consistent elite seasons to approach Soto\'s record figure.
Kyle Tucker, currently with the Chicago Cubs, was identified as another potential $500 million player. While executives acknowledged Tucker\'s superior performance relative to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (who received $500 million from Toronto), they noted market uncertainties including a potential 2026 lockout could impact his final number.
\"Henderson was the one player mentioned by every executive as the best bet to beat Soto. And even then, executives said, it\'s a long shot,\" the report indicated.
Other players identified as potential $400 million recipients included Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal and Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes. Executives suggested Skubal could become baseball\'s first $400 million pitcher if he maintains his Cy Young-caliber performance through his free agency in 2026.
Skenes, just 22 years old and already considered the best pitching prospect in a generation, could potentially exceed even Skubal\'s future mark. His combination of youth (he\'ll be 27 when reaching free agency after 2029) and exceptional talent position him as a candidate to potentially become baseball\'s first half-billion-dollar pitcher.
Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds was also mentioned as a theoretical candidate to approach Soto\'s record, but executives noted his production doesn\'t yet match his electric tools and he would need multiple MVP-caliber seasons to enter the conversation.
Via Jeff Passan/ESPN