Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History?

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Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#1 » by ty 4191 » Tue May 20, 2025 8:16 pm

So, over in the "Jokic 2024-2025 MVP" Thread, I entertained the idea that (at least, offensively, if not "overall value to his team"), Jokic has had the greatest individual 5 year run in NBA history.

I wanted to get everyone's thoughts and input on whom they think had the greatest 5 year run, individually (because team success is mostly teammate, coaching, and franchise dependent).

Consider this, everyone. The last FIVE seasons, (regular season), Jokic is:

-2nd in points
-3rd in rebounds
-2nd in assists
-1st in steals
-10th in blocks

-2nd in TS%
-3rd in efG%
-1st in Win Shares
-1st in Win Shares per 48 Minutes (by an absolutely ridiculous margin)

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-1st in BPM by an absolutely ridiculous margin

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-1st in PER

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-1st in On/Off +16.7


Playoffs, last 5 seasons:


-2nd in points
-1st in rebounds
-1st in assists
-5th in steals
-9th in blocks

-1st in Win Shares (massive margin)
-1st in Win Shares per 48 Minutes (massive margin)
-1st in Box Plus Minus (ridiculous margin)

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-1st in PER

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That across the board domination in both the regular season and playoffs has never been even remotely approached by any player in NBA history over any 5 year span.

There's also this:

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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#2 » by ty 4191 » Tue May 20, 2025 8:18 pm

ty 4191 wrote:That across the board domination in both the regular season and playoffs has never been even remotely approached by any player in NBA history over any 5 year span.


Let's see if this supposition holds.....re: Jokic greatest 5 year run in NBA history.......?

LeBron James, 2008-2009 through 2012-2013 (regular season):

-2nd in points
-19th in rebounds
-6th in assists
-5th in steals
-Not top 50 in blocks

-Not top 50 in TS%
-Not top 50 in efG%

-1st in Win Shares (huge margin)
-1st in Win Shares per 48 minutes (huge margin)

-1st in BPM

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-1st in PER (huge margin)

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-1st in On/Off (+15.3)


LeBron, playoffs, 2008-2009 through 2012-2013:

-1st in points
-1st in rebounds
-2nd in assists
-1st in steals
-8th in blocks

-2nd in TS%
-4th in eFG%

-1st in Win Shares (obscene margin)
-1st in Win Shares per 48 MP (obscene margin)
-1st in BPM (massive margin)

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-1st in PER (massive margin)

Image

-3rd in On/Off per 100 possessions (+6.7)
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#3 » by ty 4191 » Tue May 20, 2025 8:29 pm

Jokic (20'-21' through 24'-25') versus Kareem (70'-71' through 74'-75'):

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Regular Season
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Playoffs:

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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Tue May 20, 2025 8:30 pm

Statistical, probably Wilt.

Real, probably Russell in the early 60s. 5 years, 5 rings as virtually every other player in his starting lineup turned over. Dominating the team defense stats more than any team before or since.
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#5 » by ty 4191 » Tue May 20, 2025 8:37 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Statistical, probably Wilt.

Real, probably Russell in the early 60s. 5 years, 5 rings as virtually every other player in his starting lineup turned over. Dominating the team defense stats more than any team before or since.


Thanks for the feedback!! :D

How about this comp, Penbeast? Thoughts? Better 5 year "prime"?

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Regular Season:

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Playoffs:

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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#6 » by penbeast0 » Tue May 20, 2025 8:40 pm

What you're presenting about Jokic v. Shaq works . . . if Jokic's defense is better than Shaq's for their respective era. I respect Jokic's offense more but I remember being more afraid of Shaq (and him having more gravity) and I think Shaq's defense was better (though pnr was a clearly recognized weakness of his even then) so I lean Shaq but it's reasonably close.
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#7 » by Special_Puppy » Tue May 20, 2025 8:41 pm

I would take MJ and LeBron's best 5-year stretch above Jokic's
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#8 » by ty 4191 » Tue May 20, 2025 8:44 pm

Special_Puppy wrote:I would take MJ and LeBron's best 5-year stretch above Jokic's


Why, specifically? Thanks! :)
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#9 » by ty 4191 » Tue May 20, 2025 8:46 pm

Image

Regular Season:

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Playoffs:

Image
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#10 » by ty 4191 » Tue May 20, 2025 8:51 pm

Special_Puppy wrote:I would take MJ and LeBron's best 5-year stretch above Jokic's


Image

Regular Season:

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Playoffs:
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#11 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue May 20, 2025 9:03 pm

Is Jokic's last 5 years up there with the best of all time? Yes, but the issue I have with the way the op has been framed is the playoffs as just team based success when its also a good indicator of how dominating a player can be as an individual at times. So its not just 'oh he got a ring' but also how well a player played in those games. So on that basis I'd say MJ, Russell and LeBron all still have him somewhat easily beat because even though Jokic has been mostly good to great in the playoffs when players are having 3-4 good to great series every year its a testament to their resiliency and more so doing it year after year which means more games and a shorter offseason. I think he's maybe up there with 71-75 Kareem though I think Kareem's defense still wins it for him. Jokic is probably in the 6-10 range imo.
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#12 » by Ian Scuffling » Tue May 20, 2025 9:08 pm

So, I guess defense isn't a consideration? And I say that as someone who agrees with you in regards to offensively, it may just be the best 5 year stretch in modern NBA history. Jokic is absolutely amaizng.
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#13 » by lessthanjake » Tue May 20, 2025 9:27 pm

Last year, I made the following post, which compared Jokic’s peak years with LeBron’s 2009-13 timespan, across a host of different impact metrics and impact-correlated box metrics: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=112905068#p112905068.

The output there looked very similar, with perhaps a slight edge for Jokic. Of course, there’s now been another year to add on, such that we have a full five-year peak span for Jokic now. I don’t have the time at the moment to go through it and add in data from this year, but considering that this year has been very similar for Jokic as the prior years, I imagine the results after adding in this year would be very similar to what they were in that post. Which is to say that I think there’s a good argument for Jokic having a better five-year prime than LeBron, but that it’s close enough that there’s also a perfectly reasonable argument the other way. The data isn’t clear-cut in either direction.

That said, there’s of course a Michael-Jordan elephant in the room here, and that’s much harder to compare to, since we don’t have nearly as much data about Jordan’s impact.
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#14 » by lessthanjake » Tue May 20, 2025 9:42 pm

Cavsfansince84 wrote:Is Jokic's last 5 years up there with the best of all time? Yes, but the issue I have with the way the op has been framed is the playoffs as just team based success when its also a good indicator of how dominating a player can be as an individual at times. So its not just 'oh he got a ring' but also how well a player played in those games. So on that basis I'd say MJ, Russell and LeBron all still have him somewhat easily beat because even though Jokic has been mostly good to great in the playoffs when players are having 3-4 good to great series every year its a testament to their resiliency and more so doing it year after year which means more games and a shorter offseason. I think he's maybe up there with 71-75 Kareem though I think Kareem's defense still wins it for him. Jokic is probably in the 6-10 range imo.


I don’t think this is a crazy view to take—indeed, I imagine it’s a very mainstream one—but I think the history of some of the GOAT-prime guys’ careers suggests that playoff success is very dependent on their team. After all, for both LeBron and Jordan, their most successful years in the playoffs did not really map on precisely with the consensus view of when they were at their best as individual players. Rather, for both LeBron and Jordan, they actually failed in the playoffs for several years during their very best timespan as players. They both broke through and won a title or two while still in their best years, but overall they both actually had earlier playoff exits and/or fewer titles in their very best years individually than they had in later years. Of course, for both of them, this is because their teams became a lot better in those later years. For purposes of team results, that outweighed the fact that they were not quite at their best anymore (though, of course, those two guys not quite at their best was still *really* good). That suggests we shouldn’t look dogmatically to playoff results to tell us exactly how good a player’s peak several years were. If we did that, we’d conclude that LeBron and Jordan were at their best in years that I really don’t think they were. Given that, I’m not sure it works on its own as an argument against Jokic. Of course, that isn’t to say team success doesn’t matter. It does. But it’s just part of the puzzle, and needs to be understood in context.

The other thing I’d note is that, if we’re talking about five-year primes specifically, MJ and LeBron don’t actually have Jokic beat all that much in team success. Depending on how we define MJ’s best five years, we’re actually probably looking at 1 or 2 titles in those years, while LeBron’s best five years resulted in 2 titles. Jokic has won 1 title in the last five years. So, at least aside from Russell, it’s not like the comparison here is to players who won way more in the given five-year span.
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#15 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue May 20, 2025 10:09 pm

lessthanjake wrote:
I don’t think this is a crazy view to take—indeed, I imagine it’s a very mainstream one—but I think the history of some of the GOAT-prime guys’ careers suggests that playoff success is very dependent on their team. After all, for both LeBron and Jordan, their most successful years in the playoffs did not really map on precisely with the consensus view of when they were at their best as individual players. Rather, for both LeBron and Jordan, they actually failed in the playoffs for several years during their very best timespan as players. They both broke through and won a title or two while still in their best years, but overall they both actually had earlier playoff exits and/or fewer titles in their very best years individually than they had in later years. Of course, for both of them, this is because their teams became a lot better in those later years. For purposes of team results, that outweighed the fact that they were not quite at their best anymore (though, of course, those two guys not quite at their best was still *really* good). That suggests we shouldn’t look dogmatically to playoff results to tell us exactly how good a player’s peak several years were. If we did that, we’d conclude that LeBron and Jordan were at their best in years that I really don’t think they were. Given that, I’m not sure it works on its own as an argument against Jokic. Of course, that isn’t to say team success doesn’t matter. It does. But it’s just part of the puzzle, and needs to be understood in context.

The other thing I’d note is that, if we’re talking about five-year primes specifically, MJ and LeBron don’t actually have Jokic beat all that much in team success. Depending on how we define MJ’s best five years, we’re actually probably looking at 1 or 2 titles in those years, while LeBron’s best five years resulted in 2 titles. Jokic has won 1 title in the last five years. So, at least aside from Russell, it’s not like the comparison here is to players who won way more in the given five-year span.


I don't feel like you are arguing against what I actually wrote here. I'm not really bringing rings and team success at face value into the equation. What I'm bringing is their individual play and whatnot into it though Jokic has been for the most part very good in the playoffs. You do realize that right? On top of extra games/shortened offseasons. Playoff games can still be weighted a lot without factoring team success/rings into it that much.
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#16 » by One_and_Done » Tue May 20, 2025 10:30 pm

Lebron.
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#17 » by DorianRo » Wed May 21, 2025 12:20 am

2000-2005 Shaq or 1987-1992 Jordan easy.
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#18 » by EmpireFalls » Wed May 21, 2025 12:24 am

Mid-late ‘10s Steph > ‘20s Jokic. You have to get over the raw assist totals with Steph and look at the net rating impact.
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#19 » by lessthanjake » Wed May 21, 2025 2:33 am

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:
I don’t think this is a crazy view to take—indeed, I imagine it’s a very mainstream one—but I think the history of some of the GOAT-prime guys’ careers suggests that playoff success is very dependent on their team. After all, for both LeBron and Jordan, their most successful years in the playoffs did not really map on precisely with the consensus view of when they were at their best as individual players. Rather, for both LeBron and Jordan, they actually failed in the playoffs for several years during their very best timespan as players. They both broke through and won a title or two while still in their best years, but overall they both actually had earlier playoff exits and/or fewer titles in their very best years individually than they had in later years. Of course, for both of them, this is because their teams became a lot better in those later years. For purposes of team results, that outweighed the fact that they were not quite at their best anymore (though, of course, those two guys not quite at their best was still *really* good). That suggests we shouldn’t look dogmatically to playoff results to tell us exactly how good a player’s peak several years were. If we did that, we’d conclude that LeBron and Jordan were at their best in years that I really don’t think they were. Given that, I’m not sure it works on its own as an argument against Jokic. Of course, that isn’t to say team success doesn’t matter. It does. But it’s just part of the puzzle, and needs to be understood in context.

The other thing I’d note is that, if we’re talking about five-year primes specifically, MJ and LeBron don’t actually have Jokic beat all that much in team success. Depending on how we define MJ’s best five years, we’re actually probably looking at 1 or 2 titles in those years, while LeBron’s best five years resulted in 2 titles. Jokic has won 1 title in the last five years. So, at least aside from Russell, it’s not like the comparison here is to players who won way more in the given five-year span.


I don't feel like you are arguing against what I actually wrote here. I'm not really bringing rings and team success at face value into the equation. What I'm bringing is their individual play and whatnot into it though Jokic has been for the most part very good in the playoffs. You do realize that right? On top of extra games/shortened offseasons. Playoff games can still be weighted a lot without factoring team success/rings into it that much.


Well but Jokic’s individual playoff performances have been really great. I think people tend to have a bit of a negative recency bias when assessing players’ playoff performances. When we first watch something, we’re used to thinking about little nitpicks—moments where you think the player could’ve stepped up more, games or even just quarters where someone else on their team may have actually been better, games where the guy simply wasn’t actually very good, etc. Over time, that stuff tends to give way and we remember better stuff much more, and so I think we should be careful to compare one guy with those nitpicks in mind to another where those nitpicks have mostly (though not entirely) fallen off.

In the last 5 playoffs, Jokic has averaged 28.9 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists a game, on 61.4% TS%, with 3.5 turnovers a game. His playoff BPM in that timeframe has been 11.6. And those numbers aren’t skewed by any one particular run. His playoff BPMs have ranged from a low of 9.0 to a high of 12.8. And his points/rebounds/assist averages have been 30/12/5, 31/13/6, 30/14/10, 29/13/9, and 26/13/8. For all the talk of his playoff defense, the Nuggets have actually been quite good defensively in those runs in the years where they’ve had a remotely healthy team—averaging a -3.0 rDRTG in the last three playoffs (negative numbers are good here). Of course, he also led his team to a title, with one of the most dominant individual playoff runs ever. And for all the prior talk about his playoff on-off not being great, after the last two playoffs, his playoff on-off in the last five years is essentially exactly the same as LeBron’s playoff on-off from 2009-2013 (they’re at +6.7 and +6.6). So, to me, I don’t think there’s really a fair knock on Jokic’s playoff performance individually. To the extent there’s a knock on his individual playoff performance, I feel like it has to be a bank shot by talking about the team’s success, which goes back to what I posted about in my earlier post.
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Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#20 » by RCM88x » Wed May 21, 2025 2:42 am

LeBron being 2nd in playoff TS% from 09-13 is absolutely wild
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