More Trade Value: Jrue Holiday or Damian Lillard

[ReggiesKnicks]

Who has more trade value?

Damian Lillard: 2 Years, $112,582,870
Jrue Holiday: 3 Years, $104,400,000

[ReggiesKnicks]

Only the Bucks consider this and I hate the Clarkson portion of this for them. It doesn't really make sense for the other teams. Boston gets bad value. Chicago shouldn't be spending assets to dump Williams right now and Utah just gets really poor value.

Holiday contract is very negative, followed by Williams, followed by Dame.

Sell us on Holiday being more negative than Dame.

[nate33]

Jrue has more trade value, or rather, he has less-bad trade value.

Lillard is being paid twice as much annually, and he won't even play next year. And if he comes back the following year, it is likely that he will be much less effective. He was already at the point where his defensive liabilities could barely be overcome by his offensive prowess. That's only going to be worse coming off an ACL when his defense and offense will both be worse.

At least Jrue has the ability to be a useful role player in a lower usage capacity. He is still good, but only in spurts. He is no longer worth $30M a year, but he should still be worth MLE type money for another couple of years.

If I was going to assign what these guys were actually worth on a year-by-year basis, I'd say Lillard is worth $0M next year and maybe $20M the year after, which means his contract overpays him by $92M in total. Meanwhile, I'd say that Jrue is worth maybe $20M next year, $15M the year after, and $10M the year after that, which means his contract overpays him by $60M in total. So Jrue is less bad than Lillard.

[JRoy]

Both are pretty bad. Lillard worse he won’t play next year but will get paid and will be a year older.

[Mavrelous]

For most Lillard is a bigger negative, but some teams would prefer the 1 year less salary.

[psman2]

I think Dame is the worst contract in the NBA right now. Out next year and then very good chance he has a year like one of Kobe's last two the following year. There is no real upside to him, he is not going to be the old Dame at 37 coming off that injury. Rather have Beal or Paul George on any team that wants to win. And while Williams is also bad, his contract is so much smaller yearly that it is not really an hinderance... especially on a team like the Bulls that don't need to move it for any good reason soon.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I think Dame is the worst contract in the NBA right now. Out next year and then very good chance he has a year like one of Kobe's last two the following year. There is no real upside to him, he is not going to be the old Dame at 37 coming off that injury. Rather have Beal or Paul George on any team that wants to win. And while Williams is also bad, his contract is so much smaller yearly that it is not really an hinderance... especially on a team like the Bulls that don't need to move it for any good reason soon.

Williams is going to end up being equivalent to the MLE by the end of it.

[SkyHook]

For most Lillard is a bigger negative, but some teams would prefer the 1 year less salary.

This is the way.

[Texas Chuck]

Williams is bad because of the length moreso than the amount. Not a lot of teams are going to be willing to take that on unless they believe in what he can bring on the court.

[redslastlaugh]

Jrue has a lot more, considerably more.

Dame, in some very limited instances, has accounting value but Jrue, frequently, has trade value

[brackdan70]

Jrue and it isnt even close. As mentioned Dame won’t play next year and is owed more money in his contract.
Jrue as a bad contract has been really overstated on this board. There are now at least 4 teams with rumored Interest.
Dude still plays at a very high level. FFS he started on. 60 win team this year. Even in a down year he was as a top 60/70 impact player. He is the 53rd highest paid guy next year, and probably will be in that range for the life of his contract. There is no reason to think he won’t be effective for at least two years of his contract, and then if he isn’t in year three, he is an expiring. I wish/hope the Celtics can keep him, but given the tax and Apron issues, he makes the most sense to move.
I predict if he is traded, the Celtics will clear 12-15 million form 2026/27 Salary, get a useful player in return and not have to send any picks.

[gswhoops]

Jrue by MILES. He's still a high level player, just not quite as good as he was when he signed his current deal.

Best case, Dame is going to miss 2/3rds of next season and then who knows what he'll look like post-Achilles recovery. The track record of small guards coming off major injuries isn't good.

[brackdan70]

More interesting might be Jrue vs Klay and DDR. Maybe even Bogdonovic.

[hugepatsfan]

Jrue's contract runs through his age 35/36/37 seasons is not a great value proposition, but the degree to which he's declined in the moment is so preposterously misstated on here. The only noticeable decline with him last year was he shot 30% on corner 3s a year after setting the all time record the year prior (or at least close to it - I know he flirted with it for most of the year). Maybe some disagree, but IDK how anyone would look at that as an age related decline as opposed to just year to year shooting variances.

I'm sure if you break it down with tracking data and all that he's decline, but absolutely still an elite perimeter defender. Elite help defense/positioning off ball defender. Still a strong post game for a guard. Great secondary passer. Can still be effective in on ball roles as he showed when BOS had guys out.

At $32.4M, Holiday makes 21% of the cap this year. 17.2% of the luxury tax line. 15.6% of the 2nd apron. He's not overpaid at all for the player he is at this point still. The only reason he's in trade talks is because BOS is absolutely loaded with talent but all of it is past their rookie deals and that's just untenable with Tatum out for the year.

Again, he's signed for age 35/36/37 seasons so decline could be imminent, and it could be harsh. It's not unusual for guys to fall off a cliff at that age so you always have to have that in the back of your mind. But the talk of how he's already declines is mostly exaggerated nonsense. But the age compounded with the fact that BOS isn't willing/able to take back offsetting money definitely makes trading him a difficult thing and he has negative value for sure.

Dame on the other hand has a contract that is 35% of the cap and therefore much harder to fit into a roster now. His salary stays that high in year 2 which makes him so extremely difficult to flip again once healthy whereas Jrue if he continues to stave off serious decline or even just does it gradually will still be able to be traded again at a much more feasibly tradable number. Oh and that's not even to mention Dame is total dead weight for one year and then in the second will be coming off the type of injury most guys aren't close to themselves from in year 1 back.

In very, very specific circumstances some teams might prefer being rid of Dame 1 year earlier, but it's hard to even realistically see that with how bloated his salaries are.

[Texas Chuck]

Spoiler:

Jrue's contract runs through his age 35/36/37 seasons is not a great value proposition, but the degree to which he's declined in the moment is so preposterously misstated on here. The only noticeable decline with him last year was he shot 30% on corner 3s a year after setting the all time record the year prior (or at least close to it - I know he flirted with it for most of the year). Maybe some disagree, but IDK how anyone would look at that as an age related decline as opposed to just year to year shooting variances.

I'm sure if you break it down with tracking data and all that he's decline, but absolutely still an elite perimeter defender. Elite help defense/positioning off ball defender. Still a strong post game for a guard. Great secondary passer. Can still be effective in on ball roles as he showed when BOS had guys out.

At $32.4M, Holiday makes 21% of the cap this year. 17.2% of the luxury tax line. 15.6% of the 2nd apron. He's not overpaid at all for the player he is at this point still. The only reason he's in trade talks is because BOS is absolutely loaded with talent but all of it is past their rookie deals and that's just untenable with Tatum out for the year.

Again, he's signed for age 35/36/37 seasons so decline could be imminent, and it could be harsh. It's not unusual for guys to fall off a cliff at that age so you always have to have that in the back of your mind. But the talk of how he's already declines is mostly exaggerated nonsense. But the age compounded with the fact that BOS isn't willing/able to take back offsetting money definitely makes trading him a difficult thing and he has negative value for sure.

Dame on the other hand has a contract that is 35% of the cap and therefore much harder to fit into a roster now. His salary stays that high in year 2 which makes him so extremely difficult to flip again once healthy whereas Jrue if he continues to stave off serious decline or even just does it gradually will still be able to be traded again at a much more feasibly tradable number. Oh and that's not even to mention Dame is total dead weight for one year and then in the second will be coming off the type of injury most guys aren't close to themselves from in year 1 back.

In very, very specific circumstances some teams might prefer being rid of Dame 1 year earlier, but it's hard to even realistically see that with how bloated his salaries are.

This is the kind of nuanced post this board too often lacks. What a great post.

[Slim Charless]

Only the Bucks consider this and I hate the Clarkson portion of this for them. It doesn't really make sense for the other teams. Boston gets bad value. Chicago shouldn't be spending assets to dump Williams right now and Utah just gets really poor value.

Holiday contract is very negative, followed by Williams, followed by Dame.

Sell us on Holiday being more negative than Dame.

Dame is the worst deal in the league right now. Worse than Podcast P and worse than Beal.

[mlloyd10]

Holiday contract is very negative, followed by Williams, followed by Dame.

Sell us on Holiday being more negative than Dame.

Dame is the worst deal in the league right now. Worse than Podcast P and worse than Beal.

Nah

[JRoy]

Holiday contract is very negative, followed by Williams, followed by Dame.

Sell us on Holiday being more negative than Dame.

Dame is the worst deal in the league right now. Worse than Podcast P and worse than Beal.

No.

That NTC makes Beal the worst contract in the league.

[mlloyd10]

Only the Bucks consider this and I hate the Clarkson portion of this for them. It doesn't really make sense for the other teams. Boston gets bad value. Chicago shouldn't be spending assets to dump Williams right now and Utah just gets really poor value.

Holiday contract is very negative, followed by Williams, followed by Dame.

Sell us on Holiday being more negative than Dame.

Very Simple, he showed that he is breaking down - of the three years left on his deal Yr 1 maybe ok player, yr 2 neutral/negative player, yr 3 negative

Its that 3rd year that kills it. A non-offensive player who slowed down on D making $37 mil

I've already admitted that the bucks will have to attached an assett to move Dame, but Holiday contract and Celtics tax status makes it worse

[ReggiesKnicks]

Holiday contract is very negative, followed by Williams, followed by Dame.

Sell us on Holiday being more negative than Dame.

Very Simple, he showed that he is breaking down - of the three years left on his deal Yr 1 maybe ok player, yr 2 neutral/negative player, yr 3 negative

Its that 3rd year that kills it. A non-offensive player who slowed down on D making $37 mil

You almost get it. Now explain Damian Lillard with this same rationale.

I'll do it for you.

Very Simple, he showed that he is broken down. Of the two years left on his deal Yr 1 won't play a minute, yr 2 will be 37 recovering from an ACL injury (negative)

It's the first 2 years that kills it. A non-player making over $100 million