Is AK getting better?

[dougthonus]

This was spun off a note that I saw DuckIII made, but I think it's an interesting topic. I'm going to limit the scope to previous off-season to now, and here is how I would view the major choices he made:

First --- Things actually done:

Last off-season
1: Extended Patrick Williams to 5/90 with PO
2: S&T DeMar for Duarte and a 2nd round draft pick
3: Traded Caruso for Giddey
4: Signed Jalen Smith 3/27
5: Drafted Matas Buzelis

Last trade deadline
1: Moved Zach LaVine for Huerter, Collins, Jones, their 2025 pick back (and opened up a 26M trade exception)
2: Extended Lonzo to a 1+1

This off-season
1: Drafted Noah Essengue
2: Traded Lonzo for Okoro
3: Signed Tre Jones 3/24

Things not done with plausible reports:
1: Did not trade Lonzo to Memphis for Smart + 1st. This deal was reported ours and we turned it down.
2: Did not trade #12 with Pelicans (we know there were talks, likely could have gotten unprotected Pels/Mil + #23 which was traded for #13)

Things not done with dicey reports:
1: Trade Vuc for a 2nd (rumors this was on the table at one point and we asked for a 1st, but I think it was a backup plan for GS not a primarily plan and may not have really been on the table).

Things not pursued which could have been pursued last year:
1: Trade Coby for picks
2: Trade Ayo for picks

These two things seem overwhelmingly likely to have been options, but how much or what we could have gotten is very much up in the air.

Things they have discussed philosophically:
1: We want to build around young vets rather than being really bad for any period of time
2: We do not believe we need a superstar to win and can win with many good players
3: We wanted to run and shoot a high volume of threes
4: This is year 1 of a rebuild

Will make some updates if anyone else remembers any other thoughts, will put my thoughts in the next post.

[fleet]

Well, slowly unfolding into a plan that should have been started from the beginning instead of what they did instead. Sorry for wasting all these years guys. If Vuc is traded, and Pat is traded after the extension, a mental awakening process may be unfolding, hopefully. It’s been sort of unfolding ever since DDR was traded, but it has felt almost reluctantly to this point in fits and starts. The low returns on all this has been sad, and the possibility that low return has been in part because of a lack of sharper timing in making obvious decisions.

[Evil_Headband]

Tre Jones is omitted from the LaVine trade. He may be an important rotation piece going forward.

[Dresden]

I can't blame AK for not doing this sooner. That first team he had with Lonzo healthy looked very good. But then he got hurt and that seemed to derail everything.

[MrSparkle]

All in all, it really feels like the guy plays checkers.

He openly telegraphs his plans for the league.

Early on I thought it was all smoke-screen, and “I’ve got a such a good plan I’m gonna tell you what’s gonna happen and it’ll still happen” confidence.

At this point, it seems like completely irrational confidence. If you follow the data, he is losing on every single individual trade… both short and long term. The signings have been a mixed bag, besides Caruso. The picks are all fruitless.

Personally, I now worry that Matas is going to follow a typical Bulls arc of showing rookie promise and then falling flat after the 1st summer training hype. Giddey gets paid the max and stops shooting 40% from 3P (shocker) and as a result becomes much less efficient and lethal as the primary playmaker.

I like the team concept, but he seems obsessed with tweaking a turd. This Okoro trade itself is a signal we’re going for 6-8 seed (and landing 9).

[nomorezorro]

they’re getting better than they were two years ago (world’s lowest bar to clear) because they’ve finally accepted the obvious and recognized the previous roster wasn’t going to work

however, they’re still pursuing what feels like a deeply flawed team-building strategy, devaluing shooting, devaluing draft assets, targeting the same general archetype of player that they’ve always coveted, shooting for an uninspiring target of success instead of accepting short-term setbacks that might lead to a higher long-term ceiling, seemingly not being particularly creative in exploring all opportunities to upgrade the roster, generally getting what’s considered to be a less-than-optimal return on the assets they do trade….

so yeah i don’t think they’re “getting better” in any meaningful sense; they just hit a wall and had to take a step back to pursue a new route. just because matas happens to be a more promising prospect than pwill doesn’t mean they actually changed their general approach for the better.

[dougthonus]

Some observational thoughts:

We have definitely achieved some meaningful goals:
1: We have gotten a ton younger
2: We have done so without getting meaningfully worse
3: We purged off all bad salary that existed prior to the above happening
4: We are no longer operating at any meaningful pick deficit (don't care that we are out some 2nd rounders)

We have also done some things I really like:
1: We drafted Matas - may or may not work, but I believe it is the right type of high upside swing (early return are also good)
2: We drafted Noa - may or may not work out, but I believe it is the right type of high upside swing
3: We got out of Zach's deal - Ignoring that we did it too late, I think we got as much as we could at the time and think it would be less today
4: We did not resign DDR - I had a real fear of this
5: We signed Lonzo to an upside extension - Thought this move had some obvious upside potential and no risk

We have done some things I'm neutral about:
1: Traded Caruso for Giddey vs draft picks - I think this was a reasonable swing, but would have been happy with picks too, and I may be in the minority, but I don't think we were getting picks and Giddey from OKC.
2: We didn't trade Vuc - I'm just not really convinced an opportunity was out there, and think we would have if we could.

We have done some things I haven't liked:
1: We folded hard and fast to Pat in extension talks for no reason
2: We held on to Coby / Ayo (I view them as net neutrals on new UFA market value deals in a year, so would have preferred to get assets now)
3: We passed on the #12 to Pelicans trade (like our pick, liked the trade opportunity even more)
4: Passing on trading Lonzo for Memphis pick
5: We traded Lonzo for Okoro - I think lonzo if he stayed healthy would have much more value later, Okoro is more of a win now player that will also be on a market value deal in a year and I'd have rather gambled on a more future serving asset later (though I was 50/50 in dislike vs neutral on this one so only dislike it a little bit).

My biggest concern is probably that we feel very bad at value arbitrage and extremely reliant on single swings to find success. Like at the start of last year, I would have said we're going to enter a rebuild. Coby and Ayo are highly unlikely to be here as UFAs in a year, and even if you really wanted to, you will be 100M under the cap and can bid on both to bring them back, go get picks for them now.

I like Noa as a prospect, but the upside of getting an unprotected pick from two possible teams, both which have pretty obvious straight line paths to be bad and you can swap it is really, really high even if it doesn't turn out that way. Like this is maybe one of the highest upside picks you could reasonably acquire.

Most interesting thing this off-season to me: Giddey extension

Will we repeat our historic path at just awful negotiations with our own FAs where we do not let the market help dictate value and don't use much leverage. This was the case with Zach / Vuc / Pat. I think we had way more strength in those negotiations than we showed. I'm really curious to see how this Giddey talks goes. If we end up north of 30 or do a 5th year player option (or both) then I will view this as still a critical weakness. If we end up at 25 with no PO then I'll view it as a great sign, and somewhere in the middle is somewhere in the middle.

All in all, I'm not sure they have gotten "better", but they have most definitely turned a needed page at a bare minimum, and they have done so with some thoughtful moves.

DuckIII and I had one exchange where we both discussed a type of team building methodology:

Model A: I have strong conviction in my moves and will pay extra to do the things I want to do when I feel strongly about a player / trade.

Model B: I have strong conviction in theoretical value props and will always take the move that feels like it has more paper value over thinking my gut is better than the the next guys.

The reality is that probably all GMs are a bit of both of these models depending on the moment, but AKME leans much more hard into model A historically, and philosophically, I'm much more of a model B guy, and that probably won't ever change for either of us. I do think his model A thinking has been better in this rebuild than it was in the past.

Maybe a way I would put it is that tactically, I think we have been better with decisions in the last year, but strategically, I still think we are doing the wrong things and have the wrong goals and wrong way at looking at things.

[nomorezorro]

maybe the nicest thing you could say is that at least they’re targeting young guys instead of vets as they build a low-ceiling roster, but at the same time

1. it’s still early in this build; can’t rule out them pivoting back to older vets at some point
2. if giddey doesn’t sustain his late-season level of play, then the derozan signing is still a better move than anything he’s done this go around

[dougthonus]

Tre Jones is omitted from the LaVine trade. He may be an important rotation piece going forward.

Added him in there now.

[dawhizz]

No.

[Dan Z]

He couldn't even spend one year being really bad to aim for a top pick in the draft.

Or do trades to build up draft capital, so the team has something to work with going forward.

Has he done better recently? Sure, but the bar was low to begin with. Also, passing on the New Orleans and Memphis trades were bad decisions.

[GoBlue72391]

No. He's looked down on by his peers and will make two bad moves for every one acceptable move.

He drafted Matas which is good, then pushed for the play-in and brought Matas along slowly, which is bad.

He keeps missing the window to sell high on his assets. In fact, he just did it yesterday.

So no, he's not getting better.

[fleet]

He couldn't even spend one year being really bad to aim for a top pick in the draft.

Or do trades to build up draft capital, so the team has something to work with going forward.

Has he done better recently? Sure, but the bar was low to begin with. Also, passing on the New Orleans and Memphis trades were bad decisions.

It will help me think AK is “getting better” in terms of his mental approach to a proper build if he doesn’t try to rush the process next season and try to win with additions. **** that. Just let it go. Losing into the next draft would actually be fine. It’s a good draft.

[MrFortune3]

I think the issue is not whether AK is getting better. Is he changing his approach?
Given the moves and some of the non moves we have seen take place. It is clear that he is changing his approach to team building.
He's not going to completely bottom out to rebuild and I can't say that I blame him for that.

Having top 5 picks is less important than finding the right players and having the right roster construction. We have seen the Pelicans, Suns, Sixers, Kings, Magic, Hawks all struggle for years to get cores in place and aside from the Pelicans, none of them did it with a #1 overall pick.

Talent, development and culture are key in the NBA. But if the culture is not right, the talent becomes irrelevant.

We give AK grief for drafting Patrick Williams and then extending him. Let's be real, that draft was awful.
Only 4 players from that draft class have become all-stars. Only 2 have made an all NBA team. 8 of the 1st round picks are not actively playing in the NBA, some are G-league players and others are completely out of the mix all together.

With that being said, the roster construction has to improve and so much the development of talent.
Coby is ascending, Giddey is ascending. You have to hit on Matas and Noa. At some point, you have to get a legit C who can connect the defense and help protect.

[fleet]

No.

He’s like a guy that was going about his business like a hopeless mook, loses his ass, and went to bed one night, and wakes up somehow in the middle of a forest with no idea where he is. But at least he now realizes he is lost.

[dougthonus]

He couldn't even spend one year being really bad to aim for a top pick in the draft.

Or do trades to build up draft capital, so the team has something to work with going forward.

Has he done better recently? Sure, but the bar was low to begin with. Also, passing on the New Orleans and Memphis trades were bad decisions.

It will help me think AK is “getting better” in terms of his mental approach to a proper build if he doesn’t try to rush the process next season and try to win with additions. **** that. Just let it go. Losing into the next draft would actually be fine. It’s a good draft.

Lonzo for Okoro is already this type of move to boost this year's results in a way that is very unlikely to have long term upside because he will be a UFA on a market value deal in 2 years so should be viewed only as a short term move. You turned down a 1st rounder for Lonzo earlier which would have had long term value.

[fleet]

He couldn't even spend one year being really bad to aim for a top pick in the draft.

Or do trades to build up draft capital, so the team has something to work with going forward.

Has he done better recently? Sure, but the bar was low to begin with. Also, passing on the New Orleans and Memphis trades were bad decisions.

It will help me think AK is “getting better” in terms of his mental approach to a proper build if he doesn’t try to rush the process next season and try to win with additions. **** that. Just let it go. Losing into the next draft would actually be fine. It’s a good draft.

Lonzo for Okoro is already this type of move to boost this year's results in a way that is very unlikely to have long term upside because he will be a UFA on a market value deal in 2 years so should be viewed only as a short term move. You turned down a 1st rounder for Lonzo earlier which would have had long term value.

It’s hard to find clear signs that the light has been turned on.

[dougthonus]

No.

He’s like a guy that was going about his business like a hopeless mook, loses his ass, and went to bed one night, and wakes up somehow in the middle of a forest with no idea where he is. But at least he now realizes he is lost.

Your response reminds me of this classic joke, not really plausibly related to AK in any way, just thought it was funny:

A man in a hot air balloon realized he was lost. He reduced altitude and spotted a man below. He descended a bit more and shouted: "'Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago but I don't know where I am". The man below replied "You're in a hot air balloon hovering approximately 30 feet above the ground. You're between 40 and 41 degrees north latitude and between 59 and 60 degrees west longitude".

"You must be an engineer." said the balloonist. "I am" replied the man "how did you know?" "Well," answered the balloonist, "everything you have told me is probably technically correct, but I've no idea what to make of your information and the fact is, I'm still lost. Frankly, you've not been much help at all. If anything, you've delayed my trip with your talk."

The man below responded, "You must be in management". "I am" replied the balloonist, "but how did you know?" "Well," said the man "you don't know where you are or where you're going. You have risen to where you are, due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise, which you've no idea how to keep, and you expect people beneath you to solve your problems. The fact is you are in exactly the same position you were in before we met, but now, somehow, it's my fault!!!

[PistolP]

My gut reaction is "No" given the very recent apparent passes on the Memphis and Pelicans picks (I like Noa but that Pels pick is going to be a premium trade asset). However, I will defer judgement until after the rest of the offseason plays out. My biggest gripes with AK are that he executed no real strategy for years besides "hope Lonzo comes back" and consistently holds onto assets too long, depreciating their value. Now he at least seems to be fully committing to a strategy of collecting mid-20 year-old misfit players, playing up-tempo, and hoping a few of them pop with a change of scenery. Whether or not it works, at least he's picked a lane, which is an improvement. If we can move Vuc, bring back Tre Jones, and trade Ayo or White for positive value instead of letting one of them walk in UFA next year, I'll feel more confident in saying he's getting better. That said, he's still a bottom 3 executive in the NBA IMO, so the bar for "improvement" is not high.

[dpucane]