How do you explain Caitlin Clark's mediocre on/off numbers?

[ball_takes23]

ON: +6.6
OFF: +3.5
ON-OFF: +3.1

52% TS
.067 WS/48

In a league which is supposedly devoid of talent, you would expect her to be putting up much better numbers

[Doctor MJ]

ON: +6.6
OFF: +3.5
ON-OFF: +3.1

52% TS
.067 WS/48

In a league which is supposedly devoid of talent, you would expect her to be putting up much better numbers

Well, I think the short answer is: People who were (and are) justifying the mainstream Clark Effect as primarily being about a new player who is vastly better than all competition were/are just wrong.

The reality is that while people like the rationale that they weren't following women's hoops because the quality wasn't high enough previously, what's actually happening is people taking notice with a hype machine surrounding women's basketball on the level we really haven't seen at least since Candace Parker more than 15 years ago, and possibly like we've never seen before. This hype started becoming noticeable during Clark's freshman year but for fellow freshman Paige not Clark. It was only after injuries caused Paige to lose hype that the hype focus re-settled on Clark.

As I say all of that:

It was still reasonable to consider Clark the greatest offensive (but not overall) prospect in WNBA history, and while I wouldn't say I'm disappointed in what I've seen from Clark in the WNBA so far, she clearly hasn't had the kind of instant transformative effect on the Fever offense of a player who is instantly the most effective offensive player in the league.

This shouldn't have been expected for reasons I alluded to already - the W is actually quite good, and it's not much more reasonable to expect a rookie to instantly be the best in the W than it would be to expect a rookie to instantly be the best in the NBA.

Of course beyond that, there's the matter than Clark's been injured and her box score is currently down from last year. Let's give her some time and I expect her numbers will at least be considerably more impressive than they are.

[Ice Man]

I'm normally a fan of on/off numbers, but in this case they are missing the forest for the trees. The Fever are +53 in the 9 games that Clark has played, against generally strong competition, and +9 in the 7 games she has missed, against almost exclusively garbage teams.

As for the on/off numbers when she has played, the off is a very small sample size.

[AI_Efficiency]

ON: +6.6
OFF: +3.5
ON-OFF: +3.1

52% TS
.067 WS/48

In a league which is supposedly devoid of talent, you would expect her to be putting up much better numbers

Why are you just looking at this season which has been a tiny sample size of 8 games, a few in which she has stunk. She had a 58% TS over 40 games during her rookie year in a season where she started off slow after coming straight from playing a long college season. The short answer is that she hasn’t played great over some of these games, but it is only over a small sample so who cares. If this is her impact / stats for the next few seasons it might be time to worry.

[MrDollarBills]

"Devoid of talent"

Posts like this aren't worth devoting anything to them except ridicule.

[rmontro]

Another reason her numbers are inconsistent is that there is a lot of talent on the Fever team. She isn't expected to be taking as many shots as she did in college. On any given day, Boston, Mitchell, or even Howard could be the high scorer. If the other team double or triple teams Clark, there are other options who can take the shot.

[Wingy]

"Devoid of talent"

Posts like this aren't worth devoting anything to them except ridicule.

To me, the OP is clearly mocking critics of the league, and it’s about questioning CC’s hype compared to her performance.

[MrDollarBills]

"Devoid of talent"

Posts like this aren't worth devoting anything to them except ridicule.

To me, the OP is clearly mocking critics of the league, and it’s about questioning CC’s hype compared to her performance.

I can see that

[DOT]

Paige Bueckers >>>>

[Ice Man]

Paige Bueckers >>>>

She has been this WNBA season. Clark played a solid first 3 games of the season, but her next 6 were turnover-strewn brickfests. Presumably due to playing through injury, but we shall see. She certainly needs to improve when she returns -- a lot.

That's said, it's questionable whether Paige's rookie year is better than Clark's was last year, and Paige was certainly not the better college player. But Sure, she might have a superior WNBA career. She's really, really good.

[sikma42]

She controls so much of the offensive that she will always get counting stats. But I don’t know how much better they are with CC at this point.

It might take a couple games for them to get used to playing without her (big adjustment) but she is so ball dominant that idk if it’s that much of a value add over how they’d be without her. I think she could improve even more and she is great…but it’s not transformative like they saying


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[SalsaNchips]

Saw some random lady on espn say basically the same thing. Caitlin was in the mvp conversation last season. A few injuries and bad games and now the team is better without her? All seems very in the moment imo.

[sikma42]

Saw some random lady on espn say basically the same thing. Caitlin was in the mvp conversation last season. A few injuries and bad games and now the team is better without her? All seems very in the moment imo.

MVP convo and better without her both seem like hot takes.

Whether she doesn’t make them much better seems fair enough. How many games better is this team with CC?


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[SalsaNchips]

Saw some random lady on espn say basically the same thing. Caitlin was in the mvp conversation last season. A few injuries and bad games and now the team is better without her? All seems very in the moment imo.

MVP convo and better without her both seem like hot takes.

Whether she doesn’t make them much better seems fair enough. How many games better is this team with CC?


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She was 4th in mvp voting, so not a hot take.

[sikma42]

Saw some random lady on espn say basically the same thing. Caitlin was in the mvp conversation last season. A few injuries and bad games and now the team is better without her? All seems very in the moment imo.

MVP convo and better without her both seem like hot takes.

Whether she doesn’t make them much better seems fair enough. How many games better is this team with CC?


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She was [emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]th in mvp voting, so not a hot take.

Who votes on MVP? Who is starting the convo about CC’s impact on her team.

Hint: it’s the same people.

She shouldn’t have been in any serious convo about MVP last year.


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[Green Chile]

I think one thing people seem to forget is this is a 13-team league. You take a top 5 player off any team and they are still fairly loaded.

AB is a multi-time MVP level talent. Kelsey is one of the most dynamic guards in the league. Then the team has incredible depth with Hull, Howard, Cunningham, etc.
Aari may have been waived, but she's still one of 150-160 players in the world. It's not like signing a player "off the street" in other leagues.

Most don't think much of the Wings overall, but in the last week they have held the Dream to 55 points and then scored 98 on the Mercury.

Both things can be true. Healthy CC is in 1st Team All-W and MVP conversations, but this team still has the talent to win some games without her.

[rmontro]

AB is a multi-time MVP level talent. Kelsey is one of the most dynamic guards in the league. Then the team has incredible depth with Hull, Howard, Cunningham, etc.

It's not quite the same team now, but Indiana was one of the worst teams in the league before they drafted Caitlin Clark. Boston, Mitchell, and Hull were there, albeit younger.

[OriAr]

ON: +6.6
OFF: +3.5
ON-OFF: +3.1

52% TS
.067 WS/48

In a league which is supposedly devoid of talent, you would expect her to be putting up much better numbers

She's been playing through injuries this season so nowhere near her best.
Hopefully she'll be properly healthy post ASB and show us what she can really do.

[Green Chile]

AB is a multi-time MVP level talent. Kelsey is one of the most dynamic guards in the league. Then the team has incredible depth with Hull, Howard, Cunningham, etc.

It's not quite the same team now, but Indiana was one of the worst teams in the league before they drafted Caitlin Clark. Boston, Mitchell, and Hull were there, albeit younger.

AB caused an 8-win increase when she was drafted.
CC caused a 7-win increase.

CC is awesome, one of the top 5 players in the league.

I was just saying they've got some talent, and defending CC at the same time (I thought).

[rmontro]

I was just saying they've got some talent, and defending CC at the same time (I thought).

I wasn't refuting you. Just brushing in some more details.