Nevermind Chet, does Banchero project to be actually better than Franz Wagner?

[WestGOAT]

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2328754 dont know why this is locked, a lot of people have egg on their face.

Orlando's net rating over the past 3 years:

Wagner ON, Banchero ON: +1.4 in 4382 minutes
Wagner ON, Banchero OFF: +7.1 in 2587 minutes
Wagner OFF, Banchero ON: -7.8 in 2428 minutes

And it's not because Banchero plays with bench guys or plays against other teams' starters.

In 48 games without Banchero playing at all, Orlando has a +5.1 net rating with Wagner on (1026 minutes).

In 34 games without Wagner playing at all, Orlando has a -7.3 net rating with Banchero on (572 minutes).

[Castle Black]

Only 3 games so I think Banchero will settle in eventually. He did have a good bounce-back game last night, but he also single-handedly lost them that game vs ATL with his 4/15 performance. Hopefully he gets it going cause I was hoping to see Orlando make a Playoff push this season.

[MrBigShot]

He has to clean up his shot selection

[HotelVitale]

Who ever said that was some guarantee? Franz is great, got amazing touch and plays super in control. No reason for anyone to think Banchero is destined to be better than another AS-level guy on his team.

[Black Jack]

they're even and I don't see why you want a duplicated star

[Shock Defeat]

Neither are good enough to win a championship as a #1

[ocelot17]

Julius Randle with aura.

[DusterBuster]

Way to early for any kind of major proclamations of any sort.

But a rough start for him to be sure... Pablo is talented but there's just "something" missing with him.

[jbsays]

He has to clean up his shot selection

And make some of the easier shots he actually gets.

Paolo has not had a great start to the season. He's still young, so I don't think any reason to give up on him yet. Although I do see both as more Pippen than Jordan.

[kane0801]

Way to early for any kind of major proclamations of any sort.

But a rough start for him to be sure... Pablo is talented but there's just "something" missing with him.

He is like Camelo Anthony imo,great size and strength but with poor shot selection

[mattg]

Banchero just has absolute **** floor game. Tunnel vision and plays with blinders on. Terrible shot selection and a very overrated jump shooter. His J hasn't ever consistently fallen but because he shoots them, looks smooth handling the ball, and is a high volume aggressive scorer his skill level has gotten overrated.

It's been clear as day since last season that Franz is the best guy on Orlando and a lot of times their team is fighting against Banchero to try and win games.

[tsherkin]

Way to early for any kind of major proclamations of any sort.

But a rough start for him to be sure... Pablo is talented but there's just "something" missing with him.

He is like Camelo Anthony imo,great size and strength but with poor shot selection

He's kind of an inverted Melo in the sense that he has a pretty strong "bull to the basket and draw fouls" and no real middle game. Both weak as playmakers, but Melo's whole deal was his mid-range game (and later, his 3 with New York).

But yeah, same notion. Pieces missing. Not tier-1, and doesn't project in that direction either. Still talented, though, and young. So we'll see what happens. It's early this year. His long two is clicking, but he struggles finishing inside and his middle game has been atrocious to start the year. 3 is totally gone as well. Some of that will even out as we progress forward in the season.

[DusterBuster]

Way to early for any kind of major proclamations of any sort.

But a rough start for him to be sure... Pablo is talented but there's just "something" missing with him.

He is like Camelo Anthony imo,great size and strength but with poor shot selection

He's kind of an inverted Melo in the sense that he has a pretty strong "bull to the basket and draw fouls" and no real middle game. Both weak as playmakers, but Melo's whole deal was his mid-range game (and later, his 3 with New York).

But yeah, same notion. Pieces missing. Not tier-1, and doesn't project in that direction either. Still talented, though, and young. So we'll see what happens. It's early this year. His long two is clicking, but he struggles finishing inside and his middle game has been atrocious to start the year. 3 is totally gone as well. Some of that will even out as we progress forward in the season.

All good points, honestly he reminds me of a lightly bigger, less athletic but a little more skilled former Magic player, Aaron Gordon. They kinda project out about the same imo. Should be a 2nd/3rd option player likely to be his best.

[tsherkin]

All good points, honestly he reminds me of a lightly bigger, less athletic but a little more skilled former Magic player, Aaron Gordon. They kinda project out about the same imo. Should be a 2nd/3rd option player likely to be his best.

He's definitely got more of a handle than AG, though Gordon does all right for himself. Banchero is much better at creating his own shot and has more size/reach. AG has found a wonderful niche for himself with the Nuggets. And of course, he had that massive explosion game this season, which was cool to see.

[eyriq]

ESPN Net Points controls for rotations and is a more robust measure of plus minus. Franz still grades out better but the gap is closing and Paolo now has the slight edge on offense.

Age 20 (Paolo ’23 vs Franz ’22): Franz +0.1 vs Paolo −1.9 → Franz by ~2.0.

Age 21 (Paolo ’24 vs Franz ’23): Franz +1.4 vs Paolo −0.1 → Franz by ~1.5.

Age 22 (Paolo ’25 vs Franz ’24): Franz +2.0 vs Paolo +1.6 → Franz by ~0.4.
• Split: Paolo slightly better on offense (1.2 vs 1.0), Franz better on defense (1.0 vs 0.3).

For context 5+ typically puts in you the top five players in the world. 1.5+ puts you in the top 50.

[GeorgeMarcus]

ESPN Net Points controls for rotations and is a more robust measure of plus minus. Franz still grades out better but the gap is closing and Paolo now has the slight edge on offense.

Age 20 (Paolo ’23 vs Franz ’22): Franz +0.1 vs Paolo −1.9 → Franz by ~2.0.

Age 21 (Paolo ’24 vs Franz ’23): Franz +1.4 vs Paolo −0.1 → Franz by ~1.5.

Age 22 (Paolo ’25 vs Franz ’24): Franz +2.0 vs Paolo +1.6 → Franz by ~0.4.
• Split: Paolo slightly better on offense (1.2 vs 1.0), Franz better on defense (1.0 vs 0.3).

For context 5+ typically puts in you the top five players in the world. 1.5+ puts you in the top 50.

Isn't Net Points box-generated? If so I reject the notion that it could effectively capture impact better than "pure" impact data like net rtg, on/off, and vanilla rapm. Which of course need to be viewed in context, but not lumped into a single jumbled value as many metrics have tried to do

[eyriq]

ESPN Net Points controls for rotations and is a more robust measure of plus minus. Franz still grades out better but the gap is closing and Paolo now has the slight edge on offense.

Age 20 (Paolo ’23 vs Franz ’22): Franz +0.1 vs Paolo −1.9 → Franz by ~2.0.

Age 21 (Paolo ’24 vs Franz ’23): Franz +1.4 vs Paolo −0.1 → Franz by ~1.5.

Age 22 (Paolo ’25 vs Franz ’24): Franz +2.0 vs Paolo +1.6 → Franz by ~0.4.
• Split: Paolo slightly better on offense (1.2 vs 1.0), Franz better on defense (1.0 vs 0.3).

For context 5+ typically puts in you the top five players in the world. 1.5+ puts you in the top 50.

Isn't Net Points box-generated? If so I reject the notion that it could effectively capture impact better than "pure" impact data like net rtg, on/off, and vanilla rapm. Which of course need to be viewed in context, but not lumped into a single jumbled value as many metrics have tried to do

It is play-by-play generated, not box-generated, hence it controls for rotations and other factors that what you call "pure" impact data can't control for.

[DrModesty]

Is this thread even that much of an indictment? Wagner is very good and has been very good for his whole career. If his 3 point shot comes good to a league average level he may end up a regular all-nba player. Not a given that Chet OR Paulo will end their careers better than Wagner.

[NO-KG-AI]

Maybe not… but not as a slight to Paolo, but as a testament to Franz being a better prospect than we thought he was.

[DusterBuster]

All good points, honestly he reminds me of a lightly bigger, less athletic but a little more skilled former Magic player, Aaron Gordon. They kinda project out about the same imo. Should be a 2nd/3rd option player likely to be his best.

He's definitely got more of a handle than AG, though Gordon does all right for himself. Banchero is much better at creating his own shot and has more size/reach. AG has found a wonderful niche for himself with the Nuggets. And of course, he had that massive explosion game this season, which was cool to see.

Yeah, like I said, less athletic, but more skilled for sure… some similarities in the game a bit but mostly the fact that he was picked to be a #1 guy for the Magic and with each passing year that’s seeming less and less like it’s going to be a role he can fulfill.